Previews vs. First Appearance - Introducing RULE 31. 1 1

[theCapraAegagrus]

Just now, 01TheDude said:

Did it occur to you that I am also "arguing" as an exercise in fun? I suppose that would be impossible. I am always serious. Or are you defending them all in fun as well? This whole thread has gone to the dogs.

I like you. I like the OP. I don't want my friends to fight!

Idk. You seemed serious and I wanted to pour some water on the fire.

The bolded is 100% right...

[01TheDude]

Truth be told-- whether the OP was serious or just having fun-- I think someone could possible put a reasonable formula together but the effort involved would most likely be a waste of time. As many have said-- the book is worth what someone will pay for it.

[HuddyBee]

1 hour ago, 01TheDude said:

Truth be told-- whether the OP was serious or just having fun-- I think someone could possible put a reasonable formula together but the effort involved would most likely be a waste of time. As many have said-- the book is worth what someone will pay for it.

I think that OP was just coming up with an interesting formula that can half-predict sales of certain comics. Thats about it.

2 hours ago, 01TheDude said:

but saying something is a rule is offensive to me

And I don't think ValiantMan meant it was an actual concrete Economical rule. Just making a nice flashy title. 

 

[01TheDude]

please bear in mind--- I am easily offended

 

 

[comicginger1789]

I support Rule 31!

A picture of a character before their appearance (like Beta Ray Bill or others in books like Marvel Age or whatever) is not a first appearance. First preview makes sense and hey, some previews I find interesting. Like all of the early black suit Spidey previews. It adds to the story of that costume. However, paying big bucks for those issue is not of interest to me as a collector. 

[masterlogan2000]

On 5/20/2019 at 5:40 PM, masterlogan2000 said:

I just worry that someone will take these numbers and run with them as if it were the law of the land or use it as definitive proof to argue their point against preview books.  The comics market is a much more complex animal than this.

14 hours ago, comicginger1789 said:

I support Rule 31!

A picture of a character before their appearance (like Beta Ray Bill or others in books like Marvel Age or whatever) is not a first appearance.

This is exactly the concern that I had.  The "Rule" itself is being used to justify arguments regarding previews/first appearances.  The "Rule" really has nothing to do with that, and is only an exercise in valuations based on a very limited data set (and again, a dataset that can be considered the exception, not the norm).

The debate and tone here has been serious from the beginning, with multiple thought-out examples, without only one admission to the "Rule" being tongue-in-cheek.  We should establish that this "Rule" IS NOT and CANNOT be an actual rule, and that this is simply an exercise to anecdotally relate valuations to a small subset of books with their CGC submission counts.

 

[masterlogan2000]

56 minutes ago, Deputy Mike said:

Someone invested in a boatload of of Preview books

I can honestly say I have no horse in this race, but am now thinking of loading up on a bunch of More Fun Comics #31.

[Lazyboy]

1 hour ago, masterlogan2000 said:

This is exactly the concern that I had.  The "Rule" itself is being used to justify arguments regarding previews/first appearances.  The "Rule" really has nothing to do with that, and is only an exercise in valuations based on a very limited data set (and again, a dataset that can be considered the exception, not the norm).

The debate and tone here has been serious from the beginning, with multiple thought-out examples, without only one admission to the "Rule" being tongue-in-cheek.  We should establish that this "Rule" IS NOT and CANNOT be an actual rule, and that this is simply an exercise to anecdotally relate valuations to a small subset of books with their CGC submission counts.

 

The real Rule 31: Only after you've convinced the majority of people who've been in the hobby for at least 5 years that More Fun Comics #31 is the first appearance of Superman may you ever refer to any advertisement as a first appearance.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Lazyboy

[Krismusic]

WTB More Fun Comics #31 oops wrong thread, but maybe I do hmmm  

[comicdonna]

7 hours ago, masterlogan2000 said:

I can honestly say I have no horse in this race, but am now thinking of loading up on a bunch of More Fun Comics #31.

You better hurry because the first WTB thread has already started.  

[valiantman]

Rule 45: Nothing which has ever happened before in this hobby matters, decades of history mean nothing, and up until now the hobby has been completely wrong. Whatever book is being sold is the first appearance of any character the seller claims, no exceptions, anyone using demonstrable facts is a liar, wrong, and pushing fake news. It's time to make the hobby great again.

Edited May 25, 2019 by valiantman

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 5/20/2019 at 9:40 AM, valiantman said:

A simple solution to the "preview" vs. "first appearance" problem would be to take the definition back to the beginning AND to reflect the actual market.

This "preview" of Action Comics #1 appeared in More Fun Comics #31

 they need to first correct the market for More Fun Comics #31 and Action Comics #1

 

I agree with this , at the same time I will have to see your More Fun Comics #1 and raise it with an even closer related , yet just the same, has not sold at the same premium for a comparable grade Action Comics #1 Ashcan. Basically same book. Same first appearance.  Ashcan is rarer, still market and personal choice of the consumer drive the regular Action Comics #1 higher . I know this isn't the same comparison of preview vs 1st app and more of an apples to apples but the point is no matter how we or the rest of the hobby see it , people have their own feeling on what value is and it is only worth what someone will pay for it. 

 

 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 5/25/2019 at 10:54 AM, valiantman said:

Rule 45

It's time to make the hobby great again.

These statements have been endorsed by the Valiant efforts of one man striving to Make Comics Great Again! 

I agree and second Rule 45 ! 

[Lazyboy]

9 hours ago, onlyweaknesskryptonite said:

I agree with this , at the same time I will have to see your More Fun Comics #1 and raise it with an even closer related , yet just the same, has not sold at the same premium for a comparable grade Action Comics #1 Ashcan. Basically same book. Same first appearance.  Ashcan is rarer, still market and personal choice of the consumer drive the regular Action Comics #1 higher . I know this isn't the same comparison of preview vs 1st app and more of an apples to apples but the point is no matter how we or the rest of the hobby see it , people have their own feeling on what value is and it is only worth what someone will pay for it.

 I don't think you understand Ashcans.

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

1 hour ago, Lazyboy said:

 I don't think you understand Ashcans.

How so ? I wasn't comparing this to the preview. I was just starting that this Ashcan is also the first appearance of superman, and technically earlier than the traditional Action Comics # 1 , yet like the preview does not command the same premium as the  Action Comics  # 1.

[Lazyboy]

6 minutes ago, onlyweaknesskryptonite said:

I was just starting that this Ashcan is also the first appearance of superman

Okay. Now I know you don't understand Ashcans.

You might want to go do some research.

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

15 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

Okay. Now I know you don't understand Ashcans.

You might want to go do some research.

I stand corrected.  I know the cover was originally intended for detective comics , but thought there was still a story on the interior containing superman. Which is wrong. My apology for sharing my misunderstanding of ashcans. Thank you Lazyboy for the education! 

[Boswell]

On 5/20/2019 at 7:40 AM, valiantman said:

A simple solution to the "preview" vs. "first appearance" debate is to take the definition back to the beginning AND to reflect the actual market.

This "preview" of Action Comics #1 appeared in More Fun Comics #31

... which established a very clear example of a "preview" which COULD be considered the first appearance.

NOW, using that fact, we can see that More Fun Comics #31 most recently sold for $1,195 for CGC 2.5 and $1,076 for CGC 3.5, for an average of $1,136 for an average grade of CGC 3.0.

The most recent sale of CGC 3.0 Action Comics #1 was $498,750.

THEREFORE...

A very clear preview of an upcoming comic/character for the most famous example of all time dictates that GIVEN THE SAME GRADE, the preview book should be 439 times CHEAPER than the actual first appearance, even though the preview occurred earlier.

If anyone claims that a preview should be more valuable than the first appearance divided by 439, they need to first correct the market for More Fun Comics #31 and Action Comics #1, then get back to us with updated numbers. 

This will be called the "More Fun 31 Rule" or just "Rule 31" (even though More Fun 31 is more fun to say).  Anyone proclaiming the importance/value/legitimacy of preview books/ads/articles/napkins will only need to show how their situation is more important than More Fun 31. 

This image of More Fun 31 is from a copy that I own.  It is missing the back cover.  Bought it in 2006 on Ebay, along with a ~1.5 copy of More Fun 38, for $220 from Neat Stuff Collectibles.  So, I'd probably allocate probably $120 for the MF 31 in what would grade out as a 0.5.  So that probably fits with your value theme.  I also own the CGC 7.5 copy.  Frankly, given the nature of the book, I like having an unslabbed copy.

[slym2none]

Here's three things I know:

1) this will seemingly always be a contentious topic;
2) Hulk #180 is Wolverine's first appearance, actual value notwithstanding;
3) Jeffery Epstein didn't kill himself.



-slym

[Prince Namor]

On 5/21/2019 at 12:50 AM, Lazyboy said:

Of course I agree understand that previews are not first appearances, but this is kind of an extension of the "value makes keys" irrational thinking. Value is determined by the market, based on supply and demand (and some stupidity, currently). First appearances are a significant demand factor, but they're far from the only one and don't affect supply (in the vast majority of cases).

I think it's done somewhat cheeky, and not to be taken as 100% serious, but I like the idea of it 100%.

Of course you're right, in that value is determined by the market, but for many years Overstreet determined market value to some extent using this same kind of thinking. Remember when everything was an extact formula for each grade down in price? Geez, dealers used that Overstreet model for 30+ years...

The stupidity of today's market, besides some of the people doing the business, is because market value seems to be geared toward's what's going on in eBay 'sales', a viciously more corrupt form of market manipulation than even Overstreet was. 

In other words, market value IS shaped by more than just sales. As you know, the manipulation of value has gone on for a very long time in this hobby. And that CAN have an effect on sales prices.