Previews vs. First Appearance - Introducing RULE 31.
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5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

That's correct, $90.45 is the estimate if Human Torch Comics #3/#2 had only one collectible attribute, specifically, a preview of Captain America Comics #1.

Because there are multiple other reasons to collect Human Torch Comics #3/#2, the GPA is higher than $90. lol 

Thanks....I think :)

 

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2 minutes ago, bc said:

Thanks....I think :)

There is a "neat factor" for preview books, since they would all be equal if some of them didn't have previews for popular characters inside. It's those specific previews of popular characters that make them "neat" and there is always a market for "neat" in this hobby. Admittedly, Rule 31 is a bit tongue-in-cheek, since it declares that the preview (More Fun #31) would be worth $0.23 for every $100 spent on Action Comics #1 if their CGC census numbers were equal. That's not really applicable to other situations because Action Comics #1 isn't like any other comic.  On the other hand, there are collectors trying to make the case that previews should be taken a lot more seriously in the market (possibly even more seriously than first appearances) and if we're going to get crazy, we might as well use actual numbers, dollars, census counts, and the craziest book in the hobby (Action #1).  The truth is somewhere in between, most likely, because there isn't a lot of sales data for More Fun #31, and a single sale could easily shift the Rule 31 formula by 5 or 10 times the current numbers.

That said, we could probably come up with a different formula, let's say, Rule 13, which is based on the prices paid for Malibu Sun #13 compared to Spawn #1 and using the CGC census counts for both.

In fact, let's do it.

RULE 13 FOR PREVIEWS (based upon Malibu Sun #13 preview of Spawn #1):

CGC 9.8 Malibu Sun #13 sells for $900, CGC 9.8 Spawn #1 sells for $100

CGC census for Malibu Sun #13 is 260 copies, Spawn #1 is 10,887 copies.

In order for P$ to be $900 (since that's what we're seeing in the market), the formula becomes:

RULE 13:  P$ = F$ * Fc / Pc * 0.214

 

As a result, and using actual market numbers, it's at least possible that if Spawn #1 and Malibu Sun #13 had the same CGC census counts the Malibu Sun #13 preview would sell for about 21.4% of the Spawn #1 first appearance (creating... Rule 13).

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3 hours ago, valiantman said:

There is a scenario where an argument can be made that previews are "RARER" than first appearances, so the formula should be adjusted.

However, in the More Fun #31 vs. Action Comics #1 situation described above, More Fun #31 is already 0.1463 of Action #1 counts on the CGC census (6 universal copies vs. 41 universal copies of Action #1). 

@valiantman, I always enjoy your statistical analysis, but c'mon... you should know better than equating rarity to the amount of submissions on the CGC census.  Otherwise that Darkhawk #45 with one submission on the census sure does look quite rare.  Better yet, the #46 has ZERO books submitted, which makes that even RARER!!!

This is clearly the case where the demand for Action Comics #1 has driven up the price of the book, and both the demand and the price of the book has driven the number of submissions to CGC.  I can't believe that even needs to be argued here.

At first I thought this thread was going to be full of satire, but it's pretty clear by the tone of each of the posts that the arguments for a Rule #31 are completely serious.  Forget that we're talking about the most iconic comic of all time.  Forget that we're looking at a pricing model dictated as a simple 3-variable formula, despite the actual market being dictated by a near infinite number of factors.  This is the case where a specific example and a handpicked trio of variables are being used to prove some sort of point on why previews should be worth less than an arguable first appearance.

Action #1 would and should be considered the exception to any sort of logic or equation.  It's in its own class entirely.  Rules don't apply to this book, so you therefore can't derive a rule from this book either.

 

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Isn't there a Batman ad in an early issue of Action?

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I think the hobby needs to adopt more universal terminology so everyone is speaking the same language. What I would go with:

First appearance: This is the first time a character is depicted in creative content. Previously I would have said "story" but the variant cover of Deadpool's Secret Secret Wars feels like a first appearance. So I would include covers and pinups in this category. If necessary, this could be appended to be First Appearance (Cover), First Appearance (Pinup), and First Appearance (Story), when the character appears in something other than a story first.

Cameo: e.g. Darkseid in Jimmy Olsen. A brief appearance in which the character is not integral to the main action of the issue

Teaser: e.g. Eternal Warrior 4, Amazing Spider-man 299, Incredible Hulk 180. A cameo appearance in which the character is not tied to the story told in the issue, but serves to set up the next issue

The following really only need to be called out when it's published before the first appearance:

Printed Preview: e.g. Darkhawk in Marvel Age. When there's a preview published of the same content that's published in the first appearance. 

Printed Advertisement: e.g. Spawn in Malibu Sun. When it's just a depiction of the character

Printed Editorial: e.g. Marvel Age 82. There's probably a better example of this out there. When a news mag does a story about something coming up that includes depictions of the characters

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12 minutes ago, masterlogan2000 said:
4 hours ago, valiantman said:

There is a scenario where an argument can be made that previews are "RARER" than first appearances, so the formula should be adjusted.

However, in the More Fun #31 vs. Action Comics #1 situation described above, More Fun #31 is already 0.1463 of Action #1 counts on the CGC census (6 universal copies vs. 41 universal copies of Action #1). 

@valiantman, I always enjoy your statistical analysis, but c'mon... you should know better than equating rarity to the amount of submissions on the CGC census.  Otherwise that Darkhawk #45 with one submission on the census sure does look quite rare.  Better yet, the #46 has ZERO books submitted, which makes that even RARER!!!

This is clearly the case where the demand for Action Comics #1 has driven up the price of the book, and both the demand and the price of the book has driven the number of submissions to CGC.  I can't believe that even needs to be argued here.

At first I thought this thread was going to be full of satire, but it's pretty clear by the tone of each of the posts that the arguments for a Rule #31 are completely serious.  Forget that we're talking about the most iconic comic of all time.  Forget that we're looking at a pricing model dictated as a simple 3-variable formula, despite the actual market being dictated by a near infinite number of factors.  This is the case where a specific example and a handpicked trio of variables are being used to prove some sort of point on why previews should be worth less than an arguable first appearance.

Action #1 would and should be considered the exception to any sort of logic or equation.  It's in its own class entirely.  Rules don't apply to this book, so you therefore can't derive a rule from this book either.

You might like Rule 13, then. :foryou:

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Yes, and not only all that, what about stuff like this; do we call this the "guest 134" rule?

thor 134_edited.jpg

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So what you are really saying is that I need a More Fun 31 in my collection. 

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16 minutes ago, Jaylam said:

Yes, and not only all that, what about stuff like this; do we call this the "guest 134" rule?

thor 134_edited.jpg

Nobody cares enough to make a rule if it isn't the first appearance.

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2 hours ago, valiantman said:

You might like Rule 13, then. :foryou:

Ha!  Of course, you posted Rule 13 right before I finished up submitting my post.

Though I still contend that there are way more market factors at play than what we could easily , I will contend that "Rule 13" is closer to true than "Rule 31".  :foryou:

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

Admittedly, Rule 31 is a bit tongue-in-cheek

Now we're on the same page.  I just worry that someone will take these numbers and run with them as if it were the law of the land or use it as definitive proof to argue their point against preview books.  The comics market is a much more complex animal than this.

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1 hour ago, masterlogan2000 said:

Ha!  Of course, you posted Rule 13 right before I finished up submitting my post.

Though I still contend that there are way more market factors at play than what we could easily , I will contend that "Rule 13" is closer to true than "Rule 31".  :foryou:

Now we're on the same page.  I just worry that someone will take these numbers and run with them as if it were the law of the land or use it as definitive proof to argue their point against preview books.  The comics market is a much more complex animal than this.

I think if everyone followed the rule "Buy what you like, and don't misrepresent what it is that you're selling" there would be very little to argue about.

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Posted (edited)

at best, I would call them Hypothesis 31 or Hypothesis 13 -- since they are not even close to being proven out to be a rule of any kind. Your initial "rule 31" was modeled to fit your current numbers. I just don't see any straight forward or even similar analysis at work here-- with the CGC grades being at some point 2.5 or 3.5 (and using those to average out a price for a 3.0) and then throwing in a 7.0 and even a 9.8 at various points as you expanded on your thoughts to other examples. Of course-- it didn't help when you made the typo using More Fun #1 instead of #31- but I eventually got past that figuring out what you were trying to say.

If you had approached this as a study first of similar grades, their general values, collected data to get a general average that fits a sample size larger than 1 preview/key and done a little more leg work in general since everyone understands that the number of books on the CGC census can vary for a number of reasons. I don't know-- the whole thing is a mess. It has the potential to be developed into a viable equation but the assumptions are wildly random in some cases.

While an interesting read, from a math or analysis standpoint- the only case that might hold water is for the specific books used in your "Rule 31" example itself. I would replace some of the valuations and look at this from a grade perspective perhaps using guide books or some other resource. It is a much more complicated equation that would seem to need a larger sample size to give a meaningful approximation.

But in the end-- even if a perfected formula could be created - does any of this actually yield something useful in the end? I am doubting that as well. A more modern example might be to compare relevant bronze age values for books that had the IH 181 ads in them and that impact. Those are actually touted by sellers on ebay as something significant when most of us would agree that those ads are nothing more than noteworthy at best.

Edited by 01TheDude

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18 hours ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

I think the hobby needs to adopt more universal terminology so everyone is speaking the same language. What I would go with:

First appearance: This is the first time a character is depicted in creative content. Previously I would have said "story" but the variant cover of Deadpool's Secret Secret Wars feels like a first appearance. So I would include covers and pinups in this category. If necessary, this could be appended to be First Appearance (Cover), First Appearance (Pinup), and First Appearance (Story), when the character appears in something other than a story first.

Cameo: e.g. Darkseid in Jimmy Olsen. A brief appearance in which the character is not integral to the main action of the issue

Teaser: e.g. Eternal Warrior 4, Amazing Spider-man 299, Incredible Hulk 180. A cameo appearance in which the character is not tied to the story told in the issue, but serves to set up the next issue

The following really only need to be called out when it's published before the first appearance:

Printed Preview: e.g. Darkhawk in Marvel Age. When there's a preview published of the same content that's published in the first appearance. 

Printed Advertisement: e.g. Spawn in Malibu Sun. When it's just a depiction of the character

Printed Editorial: e.g. Marvel Age 82. There's probably a better example of this out there. When a news mag does a story about something coming up that includes depictions of the characters

Very good.

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15 hours ago, 01TheDude said:

at best, I would call them Hypothesis 31 or Hypothesis 13 -- since they are not even close to being proven out to be a rule of any kind. Your initial "rule 31" was modeled to fit your current numbers. I just don't see any straight forward or even similar analysis at work here-- with the CGC grades being at some point 2.5 or 3.5 (and using those to average out a price for a 3.0) and then throwing in a 7.0 and even a 9.8 at various points as you expanded on your thoughts to other examples. Of course-- it didn't help when you made the typo using More Fun #1 instead of #31- but I eventually got past that figuring out what you were trying to say.

If you had approached this as a study first of similar grades, their general values, collected data to get a general average that fits a sample size larger than 1 preview/key and done a little more leg work in general since everyone understands that the number of books on the CGC census can vary for a number of reasons. I don't know-- the whole thing is a mess. It has the potential to be developed into a viable equation but the assumptions are wildly random in some cases.

While an interesting read, from a math or analysis standpoint- the only case that might hold water is for the specific books used in your "Rule 31" example itself. I would replace some of the valuations and look at this from a grade perspective perhaps using guide books or some other resource. It is a much more complicated equation that would seem to need a larger sample size to give a meaningful approximation.

But in the end-- even if a perfected formula could be created - does any of this actually yield something useful in the end? I am doubting that as well. A more modern example might be to compare relevant bronze age values for books that had the IH 181 ads in them and that impact. Those are actually touted by sellers on ebay as something significant when most of us would agree that those ads are nothing more than noteworthy at best.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong

:foryou:

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Should these rules be engraved on two blocks of stones and shouted too the masses from mountains high?

And if so,can we reduce them to ten? And call them commandments instead of rules?

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1 hour ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Should these rules be engraved on two blocks of stones and shouted too the masses from mountains high?

And if so,can we reduce them to ten? And call them commandments instead of rules?

You could have just said "slabs". 

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19 hours ago, valiantman said:

You could have just said "slabs". 

Why didnt I say slabs?

Do you think there was comic books back in Moses time and he was actually the first auctioneer? Instead of ten commandments,they were actually two 9.8 copies of Amazing action Messiah 15, and when a couple of bidders put up a bid of one Golden Calf he was so pissed he smote them?

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34 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Why didnt I say slabs?

Do you think there was comic books back in Moses time and he was actually the first auctioneer? Instead of ten commandments,they were actually two 9.8 copies of Amazing action Messiah 15, and when a couple of bidders put up a bid of one Golden Calf he was so pissed he smote them?

:facepalm:

Have you heard of stone slabs..?

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Just now, TwoPiece said:

:facepalm:

Have you heard of stone slabs..?

Yes...Moses had two slabs of stone.Not sure what issues those were and from a collectible stand point what's the last 90 day GPA analysis on the Ten Commandments and while were at it,what ever happened to those wooden slabs that Joe Smith found?

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2 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Yes...Moses had two slabs of stone.Not sure what issues those were and from a collectible stand point what's the last 90 day GPA analysis on the Ten Commandments and while were at it,what ever happened to those wooden slabs that Joe Smith found?

Cue the Billy Madison quote...

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