Market is Insane 5 5

[1Cool]

The problem with the ultra high grade section of the hobby is there is really not that many people looking for 9.8 of expensive books and the prices can be very volatile.  If 3 people are looking for an issue then the price can be great but if only one guy is looking for it then an auction can go for a steal.  You say to even the biggest fan you got a 1st appearance of Black Panther and they may be impressed but if you tell them you got a 9.8 they kind of get glossy eyed and really don't know why you are so happy.  Modern 9.8 are great just because there are so many copies floating around it does give some manufactured rarity to these books.

Edited June 4, 2019 by 1Cool

[DavidTheDavid]

33 minutes ago, N e r V said:

When CGC was first beginning I remember them at the SDCC trying to “introduce” people to the concept of the slab for comics. It had existed long before for other collectibles and I remember that group of us at the time (dealers/collectors) thinking that comics would become exactly like the coin market with bigger gaps between the numbers on the grades. Coin prices had been like that for years with crazy prices for such slight improvements in their appearance.

Comics had been headed in that direction going all the way back to the 1970’s when the price spreads between good,  fine and mint rapidly increased until we came to the point systems that were introduced (remember the 10 point system wasn’t the only one ever used in comics). 

So here we are today. As a collector the logic is buy the book not the number but since comics are a business the price gaps in their numbers will continue to be the business model going forward. 

Some people want "the best" of whatever they're after, and in this hobby, those slight improvements as codified by a CGC label provide our standards for better and best.

[theCapraAegagrus]

3 minutes ago, justafan said:

...So yes, it is crazy especially if/when the demand ever drops to the point where the the most anyone is willing to pay is fraction of the current market value.  Many of us are either going to take a bath on it or they will continue to demand even higher prices.  I think many of us that are handbag B type people are just playing hot potato with our collections knowing we should sell before we get burned but would rather not.  The rest who fit into the handbag A type category are going to be able to absorb the loss but they may also be the ones that trigger the crash if they all decide it's not worth chasing.

This is what I expect (and hope) happens. It'll be unfortunate for those who "invest" in comics. I would hope that the collectors who collected passionately can at least break-even or something, but despite demand seemingly being higher than supply, costs have to break the habit at some point.

Constant inflation will prevent lower and middle classes from breeding passion for collecting. New issue prices are already excessive (especially considering content). So, either the upper class completely consumes the vintage collecting hobby, or prices have to break at some point to make product available to the aforementioned classes.

I'm speaking primarily of the pre-Modern market, just because supply will never be higher than it is today. The Modern market IMO will always be volatile, and as the veterans have seen, trends spike and dive constantly among comics in that age.

[theCapraAegagrus]

3 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

Not sure what happens when the magic of movie hype subsides.....

[theCapraAegagrus]

3 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

The problem with the ultra high grade section of the hobby is there is really not that many of them and the prices can be very volatile.  If 3 people are looking for an issue then the price can be great but if only one guy is looking for it then an auction can go for a steal.  You say to even the biggest fan you got a 1st appearance of Black Panther and they may be impressed but if you tell them you got a 9.8 they kind of get glossy eyed and really don't know why you are so happy.  Modern 9.8 are great just because there are so many copies floating around it does give some manufactured rarity to these books.

I'm falling into a hole I kinda wanted to avoid.

I started collecting for Modern SS stuff, since their verification method and process appeal to me greatly. I do have some nice signed books that aren't CGC, but Hel if I know they're real signatures since I didn't witness them myself.

Now I'm in a position where I'd really like to own some significant vintage original comics. I'm not opposed to buying raw, but CGC gives me peace of mind regarding restoration/conservation. You couldn't even call me an amateur because I know close-to-0 about detecting that stuff. So, the CGC aspect inflates the already-high price.

I guess I should study restoration and try to become an amateur-expert. I'm confident in my grading abilities. If I can learn the restoration game then I guess I won't want/need CGC's expertise on the subject. Not sure how long that'll take (or if I can even become an 'expert' without proper extensive training)...

[valiantman]

44 minutes ago, Aweandlorder said:

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

Which book?

Hypothetically, if there are 10 copies in CGC 9.8 and 30 copies in CGC 9.6, shouldn't the CGC 9.8 be more than double the price? 

It shouldnt

Grades are not the collectible, they grade the collectible

The collectible is the same, the availability is the variable.  Even if you presume the grade is arbitrary, 10 copies of one and 30 of another will result in different prices for the "limited to 10" than the "limited to 30 and identified-as-lesser-quality than the 10".

[Get Marwood & I]

21 minutes ago, justafan said:

That is part of it but with comics the other 2 reasons is the combination of fear of missing out (FOMO) coupled with faith/confidence that the books are actually worth that much and will continue to be worth that much to future collectors, if not more, in the future. In other words, people with money are willing to pay that amount because they see it as an investment just as much as a hobby.

When you have less than 30 copies in 9.8 but over 100 in 9.6, that drives the fear of missing out factor (FOMO) + the demand factor + the desirability factor formula.  What you will have to pay later may be greater than what you have to pay now for it so you'd better get it for whatever you're willing to afford now.  Pedigree and ComicLink play to those fears in their auction listings by even stating how long it has been since a particular copy has been auctioned or even listed for sale, CVA and now QES stickers play to the additional desirability of this copy over all other copies.  But if you have less than 10 copies at 9.8, now the FOMO is the primary driving factor even if the demand and desirability are the same.  But in the case of popular characters like ASM or Supes, the demand factor is always going to be very significant.  If you have just 100 collectors with 6 figure or higher incomes (with a good portion of that being disposable) in the world that are working towards a 9.8 collection and there are only 10 copies of a particular issue in 9.8 on the census, well then you see where a 9.8 goes for 5 figures or higher while the 9.6 with 50 copies goes for much less and the 9.4 with 200 copies and so forth.

So yes, it is crazy especially if/when the demand ever drops to the point where the the most anyone is willing to pay is fraction of the current market value.  Many of us are either going to take a bath on it or they will continue to demand even higher prices.  I think many of us that are handbag B type people are just playing hot potato with our collections knowing we should sell before we get burned but would rather not.  The rest who fit into the handbag A type category are going to be able to absorb the loss but they may also be the ones that trigger the crash if they all decide it's not worth chasing.

Being very much a handbag B type myself, I have only FOBTMCS:  Fear Of Buying Too Much Cheap Sh

And don't get me started on the Charlton underperforming nursing title series

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Get Marwood & I
Vot's in ze kiss, have yous ever vondered just vot it is...

[Von Cichlid]

2 hours ago, Artboy99 said:

I honestly have been priced out of collecting. I stopped buying since I can't afford these prices and due to my own personal experience I believe there are many others in the same boat and I therefore think we are due for a market correction.

I don't blame you.  It has gotten to the point that only people with very large amounts of disposable income can purchase nice books on even a semi-regular basis.  For the vast majority of people it seems that prices have become well past the point of "just for fun" or "just a hobby" and have become investment level.  It's like to be a collector at all these days, one has to be a serious collector.       

Edited June 4, 2019 by Von Cichlid

[DavidTheDavid]

16 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

Being very much a handbag B type myself, I have only FOBTMCS:  Fear Of Buying Too Much Cheap Sh

And don't get me started on the Charlton underperforming nursing title series

 

This sounds familiar. Moving away from higher dollar books can easily turn into the same amount spent on low dollar books. I need another round or two of tempering my behavior.

[Ken Aldred]

2 hours ago, jcjames said:

Some people collect nice-looking comicbooks.

Some people collect nice-looking numbers.

 

Both, in my case.

59 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

A really nice wrap in 9.0-9.4 is kinda what I'm focused on. I also have OCD that  with my collecting aspirations. My brain will set itself on fire if my SA stuff isn't all the same grade. If you don't have OCD, you won't understand, but all of the other losers with messed-up brains like me will empathize.

I understand.

I've always searched for a nicely-presenting book, and I have many in the 9.0 to 9.4 range in slabs which look fantastic, and I don't believe I'd be any happier with one with a higher number on the slab that I'd have to pay much more for.  Once acquired and sitting in my collection, the assigned grade becomes a bit immaterial to me; I have a nice-looking book and no motivation for OCD-driven upgrading, and the number on the sticker, be it 9.0 or 9.4, also looks nice enough and satisfying enough for me.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Ken Aldred

[N e r V]

37 minutes ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Some people want "the best" of whatever they're after, and in this hobby, those slight improvements as codified by a CGC label provide our standards for better and best.

I live in So-Cal the capital of owning the best and instant gratification of oneself.

[theCapraAegagrus]

4 minutes ago, Ken Aldred said:

Both, in my case.

I understand.

I've always searched for a nicely-presenting book, and I have many in the 9.0 to 9.4 range in slabs which look fantastic, and I don't believe I'd be any happier with one with a higher number on the slab that I'd have to pay much more for.  Once acquired and sitting in my collection, the assigned grade becomes a bit immaterial to me; I have a nice-looking book and no motivation for OCD-driven upgrading, and the number on the sticker, be it 9.0 or 9.4, also looks nice enough and satisfying enough for me.

I suppose I could buy CGC, crack them (since the restoration check was already 'verified'), and store them safely otherwise. Then the number wouldn't bother my OCD since I'd only have the book bagged-and-boarded.

I'd take a loss if I ever had to re-sell, but that actually sounds like a decent plan, now that I've typed it out.

[NoMan]

2 hours ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

 

 

Not sure what happens when the magic of movie hype subsides.....

Thank the heavens above?

[THE_BEYONDER]

1 minute ago, NoMan said:

Thank the heavens above?

For a market crash?

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

For a market crash?

No. In hopes the 4 or 5 media companies that are left can divert some of that super-hero billions and make, I dunno, some films with a beginning, middle and end that would play in a movie theater. Two plot points, ect. I.e. Better movies. I'm so sick of super hero movies. I can't be the only one. 

I'd like a world where a film like The Bridge over the River Kwai could be made and shown in theaters today. Is that too much to ask? Can we have 3 less sequels, re-whatevers, comic book movies a year and have a Bridge over the River Kwai get made and released?

Edited June 4, 2019 by NoMan

[Get Marwood & I]

54 minutes ago, Von Cichlid said:

I don't blame you.  It has gotten to the point that only people with very large amounts of disposable income can purchase nice books on even a semi-regular basis.  For the vast majority of people it seems that prices have become well past the point of "just for fun" or "just a hobby" and have become investment level.  It's like to be a collector at all these days, one has to be a serious collector.       

I agree. Most of my books are low end purchases in the name of research now and I can feel the day coming when I'm going to give up completely. Without sounding too pessimistic, the hobby is moving further and further away from me now. It is not what it was. I feel its best days are behind me, and what I loved - rooting around in old comic shops - just doesn't exist anymore. Sad, but true I feel. 

[grebal]

1 minute ago, NoMan said:

No. In hopes the 4 or 5 media companies that are left can divert some of that super-hero billions and make, I dunno, some films with a beginning, middle and end that would play in a movie theater. Two plot points, ect. I.e. Better movies. I'm so sick of super hero movies. I can't be the only one. 

I've been a fan (marvel comics reader) since childhood.

Peaked at Civil War - thought died and gone to heaven.  Don't think seen any superhero since except Deadpool 2. Oh, and Venom on 'cable.'

Haven't seen Infinity War or Endgame yet.  Just saw Aquaman and Black Panther on airplane (one each going and coming).  Oh!, and Ant Man and Wasp last month on cable too.  Guess I'm getting old.

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, grebal said:

I've been a fan (marvel comics reader) since childhood.

Peaked at Civil War - thought died and gone to heaven.  Don't think seen any superhero since except Deadpool 2. Oh, and Venom on 'cable.'

Haven't seen Infinity War or Endgame yet.  Just saw Aquaman and Black Panther on airplane (one each going and coming).  Oh!, and Ant Man and Wasp last month on cable too.  Guess I'm getting old.

You're obviously a smart man. You're smarter than me. I'm not joking. I've met you and know this to be true. I guess the problem is me. Look I'm a fan of summer movies, too but does every movie have to be a superhero movie? You'd think you guys that like this junk would be the ones worried about over saturation making this entire genre go the way of the westerns, therefor perhaps crashing the comic market like someone wrote above. 

Sigh, just gotta drink the kool aid.

Edited June 4, 2019 by NoMan

[THE_BEYONDER]

1 minute ago, NoMan said:

You're obviously a smart man. You're smarter than me. I'm not joking. I've met you and know this to be true. I guess the problem is me. Look I'm a fan of summer movies, too but does every movie have to be a superhero movie? You'd think you guys that like this junk would be the ones worried about over saturation making this entire genre go the way of the westerns. 

Sigh, just gotta drink the kool aid.

[NoMan]

I try to watch you guys. On planes, with my nieces and nephews, in line at Target, on a TV on top of the gas pump while I'm pumping gas (honest. some Mobile stations here have Tv's playing movies) and I just can't do it. I spit up in my mouth.