Market is Insane 5 5

[Aweandlorder]

2 hours ago, valiantman said:

Which book?

Hypothetically, if there are 10 copies in CGC 9.8 and 30 copies in CGC 9.6, shouldn't the CGC 9.8 be more than double the price? 

It shouldnt

Grades are not the collectible, they grade the collectible

[THE_BEYONDER]

3 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

Because I typically agree with CGC's assessment, and would prefer the higher grade book if it wasn't ridiculously priced...

Hence the premise of the thread...

You're not alone in your thoughts.  Hence the reason the 9.8 crushes the 9.6 at auction.

[NoMan]

I honestly hope comic prices skyrocket 10x per day for 365 days so I don't have to rub elbows with all the little people of this hobby. It's tough being the World's Greatest Comic Collector. 

[N e r V]

3 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

Why would you a buy a 9.8 Silver Age key for 5 figures, when you could get a 9.6 for $8k?

Why buy a 9.6 for $8k when you can get a 9.4 for < $4k?

The prices seemingly continue to cut in half for each grade below. Why the insanity? Especially when the line between grades 9.0 and above are so thin. What is wrong with you people!?

This is, of course, speaking to the graded-comic market and not the raw comic market. Is the raw market any more stable and reasonable?

When CGC was first beginning I remember them at the SDCC trying to “introduce” people to the concept of the slab for comics. It had existed long before for other collectibles and I remember that group of us at the time (dealers/collectors) thinking that comics would become exactly like the coin market with bigger gaps between the numbers on the grades. Coin prices had been like that for years with crazy prices for such slight improvements in their appearance.

Comics had been headed in that direction going all the way back to the 1970’s when the price spreads between good,  fine and mint rapidly increased until we came to the point systems that were introduced (remember the 10 point system wasn’t the only one ever used in comics). 

So here we are today. As a collector the logic is buy the book not the number but since comics are a business the price gaps in their numbers will continue to be the business model going forward. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by N e r V

[theCapraAegagrus]

2 minutes ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

You're not alone in your thoughts.  Hence the reason the 9.8 crushes the 9.6 at auction.

CGC forums running slow for anyone else all day..?

[NoMan]

58 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

CGC forums running slow for anyone else all day..?

who cares? i gotta get off this thing and do something constructive. 

 

[Black_Adam]

I have a friend who is relatively new to our hobby with dangerously deep pockets and I am continually beating him over the head with the old adage: "buy the comic, not the label." He was very excited last week to land a OW/W CGC 9.8 X-Men #101 at an online auction - then he saw my perfectly centered, white-paged 9.4 CGC copy of the same issue I bought last year for literally 20% of what he paid and he left my place considerably less enthused...

[theCapraAegagrus]

3 minutes ago, N e r V said:

...As a collector the logic is buy the book not the number but since comics are a business the price gaps in their numbers will continue to be the business model going forward. 

That's what I'm doing, but more-or-less in a CGC case.

The price gaps have just been blowing my mind. Do I want a CGC 9.6 that looks like a 9.8? I'm just looking for the best-looking one with what I consider a 'reasonable' price. Not particularly easy to come by with these old things...

[THE_BEYONDER]

1 minute ago, Black_Adam said:

I have a friend who is relatively new to our hobby with dangerously deep pockets and I am continually beating him over the head with the old adage: "buy the comic, not the label." He was very excited last week to land a OW/W CGC 9.8 X-Men #101 at an online auction - then he saw my perfectly centered, white-paged 9.4 CGC copy of the same issue I bought last year for literally 20% of what he paid and he left my place considerably less enthused...

[theCapraAegagrus]

3 minutes ago, Black_Adam said:

I have a friend who is relatively new to our hobby with dangerously deep pockets and I am continually beating him over the head with the old adage: "buy the comic, not the label." He was very excited last week to land a OW/W CGC 9.8 X-Men #101 at an online auction - then he saw my perfectly centered, white-paged 9.4 CGC copy of the same issue I bought last year for literally 20% of what he paid and he left my place considerably less enthused...

Some of these SA Marvel comics have awful wraps (I created a thread based on my search for Thor #126 a month or 2 ago). For whatever reason, most of the highest-of-the-high grade stuff 9.6/9.8, the wrap is just ugly. Maybe it's because all of the good-wraps in those grades are kept and rarely sold.

A really nice wrap in 9.0-9.4 is kinda what I'm focused on. I also have OCD that  with my collecting aspirations. My brain will set itself on fire if my SA stuff isn't all the same grade. If you don't have OCD, you won't understand, but all of the other losers with messed-up brains like me will empathize.

[MGsimba77]

3 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

Why would you a buy a 9.8 Silver Age key for 5 figures, when you could get a 9.6 for $8k?

This is true!!! One if the most egregious examples of this is IH181. If you have a strict 9.6 often times what separates it from a 9.8 are a few small non color breaking stress lines on the back spine which are mostly white back covers on silver bronze. You can't even see them either unless you shine a light down the back spine with magnification. Another difference could be a teeny tiny amount of wear on 3 corners instead of 2. I totally agree how It's maddening!

[THE_BEYONDER]

Things get really crazy once you add the possibility of SCS to the equation.  

 

Nevermind the fact that some of those lowly 9.4s can become top-of-the-line 9.8s with a little massage.

 

Shake a 9.8..... get a 9.4

Press a 9.4.... get a 9.8

It's an insane market for sure.

Edited June 4, 2019 by THE_BEYONDER

[theCapraAegagrus]

Aren't these market practices going to kill the hobby, too? I feel like that's a legitimate concern with excessive inflation. Sure, some people will cash-out high, but it's gotta crash at some point when you can't sell a book for ages, right..?

Either it moves to a rich man-only's hobby or kills enthusiasm for single-comic buyer's.

I'm no expert in economics, but I can't see this trend continuing. I know; A billion people have predicted another crash. The world's going to end some time, though, and that hobo on the corner will be right some day.

[theCapraAegagrus]

And both sides contribute to the inflation. Obviously, it's not just sellers' asking prices. Buyers are buying into it. Sellers don't wanna start a lowering trend, but buyers need to buck overspending trends, too.

It's messed up. It's ultimately the buyers' faults, though. The measuring stick comment was right... If we could check our egos at the login screen, we could prevent a crash. I gotta get that 9.8, tho! I'm impotent if I don't have (someone else's opinion of) NM+!

Edited June 4, 2019 by TwoPiece

[Kon_Jelly]

2 hours ago, TwoPiece said:

I know, it's even worse with Moderns, because a 9.8 may fetch $200 and the 9.6 might only go for $40.

This to me is the most baffling. Luckily I'm not trying to sell off my 9.6 moderns. 

[Get Marwood & I]

30 minutes ago, bc said:

33 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

Knowing my luck, I'd win the lottery, buy a £200 coffee and it'd have newton rings 

 

 

 

Did that work? 

Yes, it worked as great as Plasma Gasification.

£200 coffee is made using Plasma Gasification. Isn't it? 

[theCapraAegagrus]

Just now, Kon_Jelly said:

This to me is the most baffling. Luckily I'm not trying to sell off my 9.6 moderns. 

There are people trying to bag & board TPBs...

The hobby is going to .

[justafan]

55 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

For the same reason that handbag A is priced at half a million quid, and handbag B is a tenner. Both look nice and can carry your car keys around. But one is made because there are some very very very rich people in the world, and the other is made because the majority aren't. Rich that is. Ditto cars. Shoes. Etc. Anything that can be made will be made with this pricing scenario in mind. £2 coffee. £200 coffee. Etc. 

In respect of comics - graded comics - and I've said this a few times recently - and like sentences with lots of dashes in them - the five figure 9.8 could actually be the 8K 9.6 but for one grading decision on a given day. The next day, it might have been 9.6. Or 9.9. The whole thing is one big pile of nonsense. But a fun one, if you're rich. 

Which I'm not. Hence the Charlton thread. 

That is part of it but with comics the other 2 reasons is the combination of fear of missing out (FOMO) coupled with faith/confidence that the books are actually worth that much and will continue to be worth that much to future collectors, if not more, in the future. In other words, people with money are willing to pay that amount because they see it as an investment just as much as a hobby.

When you have less than 30 copies in 9.8 but over 100 in 9.6, that drives the fear of missing out factor (FOMO) + the demand factor + the desirability factor formula.  What you will have to pay later may be greater than what you have to pay now for it so you'd better get it for whatever you're willing to afford now.  Pedigree and ComicLink play to those fears in their auction listings by even stating how long it has been since a particular copy has been auctioned or even listed for sale, CVA and now QES stickers play to the additional desirability of this copy over all other copies.  But if you have less than 10 copies at 9.8, now the FOMO is the primary driving factor even if the demand and desirability are the same.  But in the case of popular characters like ASM or Supes, the demand factor is always going to be very significant.  If you have just 100 collectors with 6 figure or higher incomes (with a good portion of that being disposable) in the world that are working towards a 9.8 collection and there are only 10 copies of a particular issue in 9.8 on the census, well then you see where a 9.8 goes for 5 figures or higher while the 9.6 with 50 copies goes for much less and the 9.4 with 200 copies and so forth.

So yes, it is crazy especially if/when the demand ever drops to the point where the the most anyone is willing to pay is fraction of the current market value.  Many of us are either going to take a bath on it or they will continue to demand even higher prices.  I think many of us that are handbag B type people are just playing hot potato with our collections knowing we should sell before we get burned but would rather not.  The rest who fit into the handbag A type category are going to be able to absorb the loss but they may also be the ones that trigger the crash if they all decide it's not worth chasing.

[THE_BEYONDER]

20 minutes ago, TwoPiece said:

Aren't these market practices going to   kill the hobby, too? I feel like that's a legitimate concern with excessive inflation. Sure, some people will cash-out high, but it's gotta crash at some point when you can't sell a book for ages, right..?

Either it moves to a rich man-only's hobby or kills enthusiasm for single-comic buyer's.

I'm no expert in economics, but I can't see this trend continuing. I know; A billion people have predicted another crash. The world's going to end some time, though, and that hobo on the corner will be right some day.

It's only the Movie hype that continues to sustain it.   Bin fodder continues to turn to gold overnight.   This creates a climate for easy money to be made by those paying attention.    A longbox of unread copper books that once was just taking up space..... now becomes a treasure chest of 1st appearance riches.     When your storage locker of unsellable drek becomes a bank vault of hot "keys", you take this "free money" and treat yourself to the 9.8 rather than the 9.6 of the bronze title you collect.

 

Not sure what happens when the magic of movie hype subsides.....

Edited June 4, 2019 by THE_BEYONDER

[DavidTheDavid]

1 hour ago, jcjames said:

Some people collect nice-looking comicbooks.

Some people collect nice-looking numbers.

 

Speaking more broadly to "collect the book, not the grade," I find a bit of dissonance around this. On the hand, many here espouse collecting the book, not the grade, as well as, "You can't grade from a scan." But at the same time, most slab sales come with the term: No returns since you know what you're getting. And people often state, "I want third-party verification for resto check and confidence in a grade." This notion of the book-not the grade and confidence in the CGC service sometimes seems a bit at odds.