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Heritage's Next Event Auction has started posting books !
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7,948 posts in this topic

52 minutes ago, Howling Mad said:

I'm sorry, 30 copies in 9.8 isn't common. 30 copies...9.8...not common?

In comparison to maybe Action Comics 1 or Captain America 1, sure, but that's INCREDIBLY common. I'm not placing judgment on the value or whether it's a wise pick-up (I don't believe it is, at least not long-term), but let's call it what it is. A fairly common yet super high-demand book.

I'd put money on it being a $150k book within 10 years.   And to call it common is to reveal you don't know much about it.  Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

It's a once in a generation book that influenced the hobby as much as Action 1 and AF 15, that's organically scarce.  Not like the rest of this modern garbage that was manufactured to be rare. 

It's particularly interesting to see this apparent jump at a time when TMNT is not exactly at a peak in its popularity.  There's no movie or anything driving this right now. I think that's a testament to the worth of the book itself.

I'll let it rest till the end of the auction now this is the GA forum I know! … 

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20 minutes ago, szav said:

I'd put money on it being a $150k book within 10 years.   And to call it common is to reveal you don't know much about it.  Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

It's a once in a generation book that influenced the hobby as much as Action 1 and AF 15, that's organically scarce.  Not like the rest of this modern garbage that was manufactured to be rare. 

It's particularly interesting to see this apparent jump at a time when TMNT is not exactly at a peak in its popularity.  There's no movie or anything driving this right now. I think that's a testament to the worth of the book itself.

I'll let it rest till the end of the auction now this is the GA forum I know! … 

Maybe "common" is a bad term, but if anything the print run to 9.8 ratio proves my point further. It's not that uncommon in high grades. There's books with VASTLY larger print runs that have the same number or less of 9.8s. This could be for a variety of reasons, but strictly speaking given the low print run, limited distribution, and non-major publisher nature, 30 doesn't seem extremely scarce--despite what the Gerber index may or may not be. Of 897 on the registry, which is a significant portion of the original run, 350 are graded 9.0 or above. That's a lot.

I'm not arguing the merit of the book, or it's contributions. I grew up with TNMT, I get it, but I don't think it's that big of a mystery why it's jumping in price. Individuals in the same age group can now afford nostalgia. This is the same thing we're seeing with Japanese Domestic Market cars, and is reminiscent of muscle cars about 20 years ago. Or video games, which have skyrocketed in the past 5 years. Will it be a $150K book 10 years from now? Maybe. It's just as likely it'll be a $10K book. Who knows. There's always market forces at play.

EDIT - these are my final thoughts on this as well, not trying to clog things up.

Edited by Howling Mad
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2 hours ago, szav said:

I'd put money on it being a $150k book within 10 years.   And to call it common is to reveal you don't know much about it.  Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

It's a once in a generation book that influenced the hobby as much as Action 1 and AF 15, that's organically scarce.  Not like the rest of this modern garbage that was manufactured to be rare. 

It's particularly interesting to see this apparent jump at a time when TMNT is not exactly at a peak in its popularity.  There's no movie or anything driving this right now. I think that's a testament to the worth of the book itself.

I'll let it rest till the end of the auction now this is the GA forum I know! … 

IMO I'd say a Gerber 5 for this book is a bit of a stretch.

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6 minutes ago, Tbone911t said:

IMO I'd say a Gerber 5 for this book is a bit of a stretch.

I'd say its far more likely a 4 but I don't think 5 is that much of a stretch. Gerber 5 = 1000 copies or less.  There's 897 on census, and who knows what percent of those are CPRs and duplicates on census.  I mean jesus there's even 55 restored copies...it's practically a golden age book by numbers, although the bell curve for it is skewed differently.  Only about 100 copies are graded 6.5 or less.

 

2 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

I'm willing to bet all 3000 copies survived. How many GA books total 3000 ?

I'm willing to bet its half or less based on the census numbers.  You don't see many raw copies for sale, particular due to the counterfeit issues.  I don't think people necessarily had 100% foresight about the this being worth thousands of dollars even in low grade 30 years later.

Ok now I'm done!

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8 minutes ago, szav said:

There's 897 on census...it's practically a golden age book by numbers

I can't think of a single GA superhero book that has those kind of census numbers. :wink:

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1 minute ago, Gotham Kid said:

I can't think of a single GA superhero book that has those kind of census numbers. :wink:

At worst it rests somewhere between SA and GA books in scarcity and closer to the GA side.

Its also more likely to be slabbed than kept raw relative to GA books due to the nature of GA vs CA collectors.  Old timers like their books raw, CA collectors want them slabbed.

Done.. I swear!

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On 11/1/2019 at 9:25 PM, jimbo_7071 said:
On 11/1/2019 at 9:17 PM, Gotham Kid said:

This. :screwy:

Although I don't expect this one to sell for 100K like the last one. If it does, I might have to be hospitalized.

I wish we knew who the winning bidder and underbidder were. Paying $90K for a scarce collectible seems routine, but paying that much for such a common book seems bizarre. The buyer had to be somebody with money to burn, someone who is bipolar and was in a manic phase, or someone who owns a long box of the things and wanted to manipulate the market.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that you will never ever see me spending even a fraction of this kind of money on this particular book.  Well okay, unless I have a guaranteed crazy buyer willing to pay me even crazier money to take it off my hands.  :screwy:  :takeit:

Especially after a LCS owner offered to order me a copy of the book some 30+ years ago directly from the publisher if I was willing to fork over $300 for it.  Took a look at some of the sample artwork which he had for the book and thought that it looked like absolute doggie doo doo and said to myself that nobody in their right mind would ever pay that kind of money for it.  Took him up on his second offer though and forked over $40 for the now worthless signed and numbered limited edition of Batman The Dark Knight by some guy name Frank Miller that was about come out.  doh!  :cry:

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9 hours ago, szav said:

Given the print run of 3000 and what you see on the CGC census it'd probably be a Gerber 4 maybe even a 5.

 

6 hours ago, szav said:
6 hours ago, Tbone911t said:

IMO I'd say a Gerber 5 for this book is a bit of a stretch.

I'd say its far more likely a 4 but I don't think 5 is that much of a stretch. Gerber 5 = 1000 copies or less.  There's 897 on census, and who knows what percent of those are CPRs and duplicates on census.

You can't seriously think there's less than 1,000 copies of this book remaining in existence when there's already almost 900 copies in the census.  :screwy:

Have you forgotten about all of the raw copies that are still sitting out there in private collections since the owners have absolutely no reason to have them graded since it's still not time for them to sell their copies yet?  hm  

Being a CA book with a print run of 3,000 copies with a huge percentage of them already graded and in relatively high grade at that, I would have to say this book is more like a Gerber 2 in that it can generally be found without too much trouble.  The only proviso being that you have the money and are willing to pay up for it.  (thumbsu

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6 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:
6 hours ago, szav said:

There's 897 on census...it's practically a golden age book by numbers

I can't think of a single GA superhero book that has those kind of census numbers. :wink:

+1

I can't think of a single GA book, unless it was part of a huge warehouse find, that would have even close to a quarter of this census number count.  (thumbsu

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43 minutes ago, lou_fine said:
7 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:
7 hours ago, szav said:

There's 897 on census...it's practically a golden age book by numbers

I can't think of a single GA superhero book that has those kind of census numbers. :wink:

+1

I can't think of a single GA book, unless it was part of a huge warehouse find, that would have even close to a quarter of this census number count.  (thumbsu

Batman 1 :whistle:

266 copies graded to date.

Edited by Gotham Kid
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16 hours ago, Bronty said:

don't get me wrong; like most people I'd much rather have a 9.4 for 25% of whatever of the price.

But, you take the best book of the last X years and the 9.8 grade and whether its some doofus with claws or 4 goofy turtles, people are going to pay.   We can call it unwise and maybe it is, but it will happen.

Do 9.8 IH 181s go for $90K?!

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41 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

You can't seriously think there's less than 1,000 copies of this book remaining in existence when there's already almost 900 copies in the census.  :screwy:

No need to be rude about it, friend.  You might have missed the part where I said "It's far more likely a 4" (as in 1-2k copies)… I mean you did quote what I said which implies that you read and comprehended it, but who knows.

With the amount of CPRing that goes on with a book of this value 900 copies on census probably does not = 900 unique copies.  Could be 800...could be 500...I don't know...and you don't know.  It's "possible".

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10 hours ago, october said:

Common is the lowest degree of rarity. Spider-Man 300 and 361 are common. New Mutants 98 is common. Hulk 181 is common. Eternals 1 is common.

30 copies of TMNT 1 in 9.8 is NOT common. It's in an entirely different category of scarcity and shouldn't be lumped into the examples above. 

30 copies in 9.8 IS common. 

The other books you cited are super common.

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7 minutes ago, szav said:

With the amount of CPRing that goes on with a book of this value 900 copies on census probably does not = 900 unique copies.  Could be 800...could be 500...I don't know...and you don't know.  It's "possible".

Will most definitely agree with you that there is most likely less than 800 unique copies that have been graded to date.  (thumbsu

Less than 1,000 total copies or possibly even 2,000 in existence including all of the beaters out there, probably not so much but who's to say for sure.  (shrug)

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22 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:
1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

I can't think of a single GA book, unless it was part of a huge warehouse find, that would have even close to a quarter of this census number count.  (thumbsu

Batman 1 :whistle:

266 copies graded to date.

Well, I guess there is an exception to every rule.  :facepalm:

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59 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

In other good news, the OA to Batman 251 is at 366K and Marvel 1 is steadily climbing at 276K

Every time I see how fast prices for OA are going up recently, it reminds me of my first trip down to the SD Con at the start of the 90's and how the big boys always tends to be ahead of the curve.  

While all of the comic collectors were down there chasing after and forking over big dollars for comic books, I still remember Geppi and several of his older collecting buddies flipping through OA pages and picking them off for what would now be seen as pennies on the dollar.  

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