So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[lou_fine]

On 6/22/2019 at 6:32 AM, Glassman10 said:

I turned mine over to Bob  Aug 1st 2017 and he set the price at that time.  It had been the subject of conversation since the preceeding winter and in that winter, it was bringing about $28-31K. Keep the thought that I was offered 25K for all 950 comics which I turned down and went ultimately with Bob. It sold in Sept for an undisclosed albeit high price and the buyer got it on time payments.

Hey Glasses;

All kidding aside as it's all in good fun, happy to always see you so ecstatic about your AF 15 sale through Bob Storms.  Especially since it did help your son with a big down payment for his home which was definitely a good thing.  

I believe you got the timing right as the AF 15 frenzy appear to have started that winter with the big CL sale of a CGC 9.2 graded copy for $460K right at the start of 2017.  This was then followed by CC big March 2017 Event Auction with 3 then record setting sales, namely a CGC 9.0 graded copy for $395K, a CGC 5.0 graded copy for $57K, a CGC 4.5 graded copy for just over $37K, plus 2 other lesser copies that nobody ever talks about.  I believe it's quite possible that the CGC 9.0 graded copy is now the CGC 9.2 graded copy that CC just auctioned off for $598K the previous week.  So, although the market may appear weak for the mid-grades right now, they still appear to be on the upswing for the higher grades if the 9.2 graded sales are taken into consideration.

As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats and I feel that your eventual sale was directly impacted by the rapid upward trajectory in the AF 15 prices that took place in 2017.  In parcrticular, with respect to the CC auction result of the CGC 5.0 graded copy for $57K which helped Bob to set his initial starting price of $55K for your copy.  I believe if this $57K auction result did not take place and Roy did not keep coming onto the boards to harp     about this record setting sale at the time , your copy might not have sold in the $50K range or it might have taken a lot more time to hit this mark.  Especially since the big public auctions are so high profile and easily visible that record setting results tends to influence the market to a much greater extent than either private or independent dealer sales which are really out of the public eye.  

[Glassman10]

I don't happene to think that prices have declined on the AF 15. I do think there were a few outliers as you suggest. I tracked it through GPA for a period while I was getting a major education on the value perceived for the comic. Keep in mind, I don't flip books, I don't resell books, I just really liked them and never really viewed them as a cash cow. When I wrote the original thread on the AF15 and the collection that brought out the fleet. I had numerous offers to help unburder me of my problem.  That filled my private message box quite full with people more than willing to  help.. When I realized that it was time to let the comics  go, they had been moved from the dry air in northern New Mexico to the unfriendly humidity in the northeast. We had mice in the attic, we had an old roof. We had all sorts of stuff you don't have to consider if you have your nest egg in an investment house. I saw phenomenal piles of great stuff go up in smoke when I ran the fire dept. 

So, when my son asked if he could see these legendary comics 2.5 years back, I said Ok and we dragged them out. He had a picture of him reading that AF15 than went out on Reddit which caused a stir and the consensus was it was a reprint which I knew it wasn't. But that started the trip down the path to determining value which I had thought at the time might be 3K.  I learned quickly.  I learned I needed it cleaned and pressed and slabbed and did that. I still had very little confidence about selling but I was never drawn to auctions.  

Ultimately, it led to the kudos section and Bob who was highly evaluated by the general group. Bob called and we set up the time where only Bob wanted to come up and see the books from Long Island. We spent several days grading them. He bought almost all of the collection, I kept my JIM and Thor and I handed him the AF15 to sell. He set the price. I was stunned. He sold it in about 60 days.  I don't recall seeing any in GPA at that grade and price but those services are hard to evaluate since some use them, some don't. Since then, I don't recall another doing so well in that grade but I have no doubt it will increase again. There's an awful lot of copies of this thing out there so scarcity isn't the issue. It's a bit more like owning an older Lotus They indeed are out there. They have a mystique but rare? No. You just have to want to own an old lotus but I don't see old car owners selling them constantly. My Dumb MGB has been with me since '71. 

I kept these books because I love artwork and the dumb plots. The thing that this place discourages me over the most is that it's only about money in 99% of the threads. There's easier ways to make money.  But giant ants with guns? That's a comic book. 

[peewee22]

7 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

I don't happene to think that prices have declined on the AF 15. I do think there were a few outliers as you suggest. I tracked it through GPA for a period while I was getting a major education on the value perceived for the comic. Keep in mind, I don't flip books, I don't resell books, I just really liked them and never really viewed them as a cash cow. When I wrote the original thread on the AF15 and the collection that brought out the fleet. I had numerous offers to help unburder me of my problem.  That filled my private message box quite full with people more than willing to  help.. When I realized that it was time to let the comics  go, they had been moved from the dry air in northern New Mexico to the unfriendly humidity in the northeast. We had mice in the attic, we had an old roof. We had all sorts of stuff you don't have to consider if you have your nest egg in an investment house. I saw phenomenal piles of great stuff go up in smoke when I ran the fire dept. 

So, when my son asked if he could see these legendary comics 2.5 years back, I said Ok and we dragged them out. He had a picture of him reading that AF15 than went out on Reddit which caused a stir and the consensus was it was a reprint which I knew it wasn't. But that started the trip down the path to determining value which I had thought at the time might be 3K.  I learned quickly.  I learned I needed it cleaned and pressed and slabbed and did that. I still had very little confidence about selling but I was never drawn to auctions.  

Ultimately, it led to the kudos section and Bob who was highly evaluated by the general group. Bob called and we set up the time where only Bob wanted to come up and see the books from Long Island. We spent several days grading them. He bought almost all of the collection, I kept my JIM and Thor and I handed him the AF15 to sell. He set the price. I was stunned. He sold it in about 60 days.  I don't recall seeing any in GPA at that grade and price but those services are hard to evaluate since some use them, some don't. Since then, I don't recall another doing so well in that grade but I have no doubt it will increase again. There's an awful lot of copies of this thing out there so scarcity isn't the issue. It's a bit more like owning an older Lotus They indeed are out there. They have a mystique but rare? No. You just have to want to own an old lotus but I don't see old car owners selling them constantly. My Dumb MGB has been with me since '71. 

I kept these books because I love artwork and the dumb plots. The thing that this place discourages me over the most is that it's only about money in 99% of the threads. There's easier ways to make money.  But giant ants with guns? That's a comic book. 

Comics were made for people with little brains  well, let me rephrase that comment...comics are easy to read, and you can follow the pics if you don't want to read them.. tons of fun and cheap! I loves the days waiting on Anderson News deliver to the local grocery store. Who cared about the net!

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Roy did not keep coming onto the boards to harp

I apologize for adding some reality to the discussion and being right and I accept your apology on behalf of jaydogrules.

 

[lou_fine]

30 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Roy did not keep coming onto the boards to harp

I apologize for adding some reality to the discussion and being right and I accept your apology on behalf of jaydogrules.

 

No need to apologize since I was just trying to convince Glassman that he should pay you at least some kind of token commission fee for all the hype which you created that no doubt help in terms of his copy getting such a good price.    

[Glassman10]

Enjoy your club. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 6/21/2019 at 1:08 PM, KEY ISSUES Comics said:

So, why has AF #15 continued to drop In value in all grades the past year?

I've been following this book quite closely on GPA for years, as do many folks I'm sure. It's not not unusual to see seasonal price variations--especially between Christmas and tax season--only to see it pick up steam again during con season. But it's not happening this year. It just keeps trending downwards, while other books continue to rise. Has the book FINALLY plateaued? Regardless, what do you think is causing this? 

Cheers!

The Spider-Man movies have peaked, same with the Batman and Superman movies.

People are more into other heroes like the Avengers, Deadpool, Guardians of the Galaxy and Black Panther now.

 

Movie audiences have found the Avengers to be the number one franchise now

and yes it`s all about the movies. Don't let anyone try to fool you about that.

Hollywood movie hype controls the market now.

The big three Batman, Superman and Spider-Man have lost their fastball to movie audiences.

They getting old and long in tooth to the movie audiences. They all hit their peaks about 5-10 years ago.

BvS by itself left a bad stain on the mainstream movie audiences.

With Spider-Man he just doesn`t seem rebel enough compared to Deadpool, Wolverine and the Avengers.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[peewee22]

It's about time for another record sale in a grade category for AF15 so this market concern will subside.

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

It's about time for another record sale in a grade category for AF15 so this market concern will subside.

Didn't we just have one the previous week with the CGC 9.2 graded copy going for $598K on the CC auctiion website.  

[G.A.tor]

16 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

I don't happene to think that prices have declined on the AF 15. I do think there were a few outliers as you suggest. I tracked it through GPA for a period while I was getting a major education on the value perceived for the comi

.  I don't recall seeing any in GPA at that grade and price but those services are hard to evaluate since some use them, some don't. Since then, I don't recall another doing so well in that grade but I have no doubt it will increase again. 

I agree with glassman first sentence quoted here. 

Please keep in mind there are and have been many sales that exceed “gpa” average/highs  and there are far more sales not reported than are  

so to solely rely on gpa or auction results to determine , absolutely, current fmv is flawed (imo)

in the last 6 months we’ve sold or seen sold a 1.8,2.0,2.5,3.0,2x3.5,4.0,5.0&5.5 all +/- 10% of gpa highs. 

The market for some copies is better than others. Gpa doesn’t differentiate a 5.0 with cr/ow pages and visually unappealing marvel chipping vs a 5.0 with white pages and a fc that looks 8.0 bc flaw is concealed or on bc 

these book will and do and should sell for drastically different prices. 

So the whole notion that the af15 market has “continued to drop in value” is erroneous, in my experience 

Edited June 24, 2019 by G.A.tor

[paul747]

1 hour ago, G.A.tor said:

I agree with glassman first sentence quoted here. 

Please keep in mind there are and have been many sales that exceed “gpa” average/highs  and there are far more sales not reported than are  

so to solely rely on gpa or auction results to determine , absolutely, current fmv is flawed (imo)

in the last 6 months we’ve sold or seen sold a 1.8,2.0,2.5,3.0,2x3.5,4.0,5.0&5.5 all +/- 10% of gpa highs. 

The market for some copies is better than others. Gpa doesn’t differentiate a 5.0 with cr/ow pages and visually unappealing marvel chipping vs a 5.0 with white pages and a fc that looks 8.0 bc flaw is concealed or on bc 

these book will and do and should sell for drastically different prices. 

So the whole notion that the af15 market has “continued to drop in value” is erroneous, in my experience 

Gator,  Do you think that dealers buying current inventory and needing to make money on those purchases churns the prices higher? especially a dealer that would buy 15 to 20 copies of this book? so if 50 cgc copies where bought by dealers at a certain time could that not spike the market? I think dropped in value is the wrong term.

[Jeffro.]

On 6/23/2019 at 4:06 AM, Mr bla bla said:

On 6/23/2019 at 3:34 AM, Gotham Kid said:

If I were to go back to SA buying there are books I would rather buy first. My fav is Thor so a JIM83 would go first. Hulk would go next. Spidey and the others would go after.

Jim 83 is not really The Thor 1st app. Everything about the character Thor except the visual design is a direct transfer (blatant rip off) from ancient Northern mythology.

Okay, who has some ancient Germanic texts for sale? Anyone? Bob Storms? 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Jeffro™

[G.A.tor]

56 minutes ago, paul747 said:

Gator,  Do you think that dealers buying current inventory and needing to make money on those purchases churns the prices higher? especially a dealer that would buy 15 to 20 copies of this book? so if 50 cgc copies where bought by dealers at a certain time could that not spike the market? I think dropped in value is the wrong term.

Clearly, to move the market forward/upward books have to sell and then , theoretically resale at a higher price. 

I think many dealers, like myself, look to buy on the low end of the fmv range and resell on the higher end (a book like af15 might only realize a 3-5% profit margin ). 

But all markets are cyclical...there will always be price corrections in a free market. But I see the af15 market as healthy today as 2 years ago, from my sales perspective 

[Spiderturtle]

57 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

Clearly, to move the market forward/upward books have to sell and then , theoretically resale at a higher price. 

I think many dealers, like myself, look to buy on the low end of the fmv range and resell on the higher end (a book like af15 might only realize a 3-5% profit margin ). 

But all markets are cyclical...there will always be price corrections in a free market. But I see the af15 market as healthy today as 2 years ago, from my sales perspective 

I respect the dealers in that they have to put in the risk $10k-$50k to get the 3-5% profit margin.  Honest assessment because weekend warriors can go to to eBay or the auction houses. So the margin is set/capped at approximately 10 percent give or take.  For a sure thing I sell to dealers on high end books.  

[Glassman10]

I just have to wonder about the perception of a sales bubble here.  The prior decade was that value had only one direction to go in and house flipping became the subject of reality TV shows. If, as a dealer, you are putting that kind of cash out in speculation, is it borrowed money or is it capital? Borrowed money isn't as easy to come by as it once was and I don't know where one might obtain it for less than 4%. The money cost washes out the 3-5% profit received  and it may really be a problem  if the market slows sufficiently.  That part is definitely not considering loving comic books.  My advantage was having abolutely no money invested in the collection at all beyond .15 x 950

When I sold, I still loved the books but I could see way more going wrong than right. Mastercard as a stock is up $100 dollars in the last six months and that's on top of years seeing it split and increase. Further, it can be sold the same day if you have unexpected things come up. It can crash too but it operates on a principal that it doesn't lend money to banks. It simply charges a fee for covering the transaction for people who don't happen to have cash at the moment. I do wonder how the comic market did in the crash of 2008.  I really don't know but it was a buyers market if you had the cash for most everything. 

While I don't see AF15 dropping, I don't see guarantee on continued returns either. There are two worlds here. One looks at the money, another collects comics for whatever reason. I have no idea whether market fatigue from all the movies affects things in the least.  People are strange. 

[lou_fine]

13 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Movie audiences have found the Avengers to be the number one franchise now.

and yes it`s all about the movies. Don't let anyone try to fool you about that.

Hollywood movie hype control the market now.

Do you really truly believe that movie patrons go down to the LCS and buy comic books or buy vintage comics off the comic book auction sites just because they saw a superhero movie? 

Absolutely no argument that there is a definite pickup in books featuring the first appearance characters who are about to make a movie or TV apppearance, but these price movements are usually most evident when the rumours first come out or when it is first announced by the movie studios.  This is usally short term hype and most of the speculative price increase is by speculators who are simply buying the book thinking they can make fast money on it selling into a rising marketplace.  The key word here that you have correctly used is hype which usually has a limited life and wears out over time.  

Yes, the Avengers are the number one franchise now, but I was just reading another thread here where it was showing that Avengers 4 in grade has been in a decline ever since their peak of 2011 / 2012.  The movies definitely affects the more recent common book market as speculators and flippers are looking for any possible reason to make some fast money on books which have been sitting in the deep freeze for decades.  Yet, if you look at certain sectors of the vintage GA comic book market which are red hot right now, it has absolutely nothing at all to do with movie hype.  

[ComicConnoisseur]

Just now, lou_fine said:

Do you really truly believe that movie patrons go down to the LCS and buy comic books or buy vintage comics off the comic book auction sites just because they saw a superhero movie? 

Absolutely no argument that there is a definite pickup in books featuring the first appearance characters who are about to make a movie or TV apppearance, but these price movements are usually most evident when the rumours first come out or when it is first announced by the movie studios.  This is usally short term hype and most of the speculative price increase is by speculators who are simply buying the book thinking they can make fast money on it selling into a rising marketplace.  The key word here that you have correctly used is hype which usually has a limited life and wears out over time.  

Yes, the Avengers are the number one franchise now, but I was just reading another thread here where it was showing that Avengers 4 in grade has been in a decline ever since their peak of 2011 / 2012.  The movies definitely affects the more recent common book market as speculators and flippers are looking for any possible reason to make some fast money on books which have been sitting in the deep freeze for decades.  Yet, if you look at certain sectors of the vintage GA comic book market which are red hot right now, it has absolutely nothing at all to do with movie hype.  

Good points.

Also I will add a reason AF#15 might go down is because of the hit movie

I

I think the torch was passed this year and going slowly forward over the years he will be considered the main Spider-Man for the new generation.

      

Think of similary of how golden age Flash got replaced by silver age Flash.

It won`t happen overnight, but we can bet there will be a live-action Miles Morales Spider-Man movie in the future.

This will affect the AF#15 market as the hype will go from Peter Parker.

Ultimate Comics: Fallout 4 could see some huge increases.

[Mr bla bla]

4 hours ago, Jeffro™ said:

Okay, who has some ancient Germanic texts for sale? Anyone? Bob Storms? 

  Hide contents

 

 

Thors 1st app. is actually carved into granite in germanic glyph on a hill right above where Hitlers Fuhrer underground complex was originally situated. 👍

 

[Jeffro.]

27 minutes ago, Mr bla bla said:

4 hours ago, Jeffro™ said:

Okay, who has some ancient Germanic texts for sale? Anyone? Bob Storms? 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Thors 1st app. is actually carved into granite in germanic glyph on a hill right above where Hitlers Fuhrer underground complex was originally situated. 👍

CGC can't slab that. 

[Mr bla bla]

1 hour ago, Jeffro™ said:

CGC can't slab that. 

You’re absolutely right 👍