So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[zosocane]

On 6/21/2019 at 3:20 PM, NoMan said:

So it's the FOMO. But what triggers this? What triggers that "all the sheep running into the barn" gif?

The Fear.  

[Glassman10]

2 hours ago, Mr bla bla said:

Thors 1st app. is actually carved into granite in germanic glyph on a hill right above where Hitlers Fuhrer underground complex was originally situated. 👍

 

does it look like the depiction in JIM 83? 

[Mr bla bla]

10 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

does it look like the depiction in JIM 83? 

Nope

[delekkerste]

On 6/21/2019 at 7:15 PM, peewee22 said:

You can plot from 1970 to 2019 and it's the same trend....upward (rising)... 

The trend is your friend, until it ends. 

[mysterio]

19 hours ago, zosocane said:

On 6/21/2019 at 2:20 PM, NoMan said:

So it's the FOMO. But what triggers this? What triggers that "all the sheep running into the barn" gif?

 The Fear.  

Yep. The MO matters not without the FO. 

[234wallst]

I've kept a very close eye on 2.5/3.0/3.5 over the past 1.5 years, and within that time frame no doubt the price has peaked and has trended down this year (which is great news for me as I'm looking to acquire).  The 'continued to drop in value" statement has to be taken into proper context - over the past 1.5 years it's absolutely true; at least for the grades I specified - I can't speak to other ranges.  Over the longer term, no the statement would not be true.

I am only looking at public data such as CL/CC/HA/ebay/Hakes/CGC forums.  Can't speak to GPA or private dealer transactions.  As Gator pointed out there will be variances within the same grade but I am taking that into consideration as well.  A chipped 3.0 is down from where a chipped 3.0 was a year ago; likewise with a no MC today and a year ago.

[234wallst]

Just to add - what I have observed in the grade ranges specified is a VERY high percentage of books closing on the platforms I specified immediately come back up for resale at a higher price.  The market is dominated by flippers.  That model can't be sustained unless there is true demand.  My guess is that has contributed to the downward trend as some flippers can't afford to hold the books and must take the current true market value.

[peewee22]

2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

The trend is your friend, until it ends. 

If (when) it does, 60+ years of appreciation ain't bad. 

[Glassman10]

2 hours ago, 234wallst said:

Just to add - what I have observed in the grade ranges specified is a VERY high percentage of books closing on the platforms I specified immediately come back up for resale at a higher price.  The market is dominated by flippers.  That model can't be sustained unless there is true demand.  My guess is that has contributed to the downward trend as some flippers can't afford to hold the books and must take the current true market value.

Indeed, the market is dominated by flippers as are the AF 15 threads as near as I can see based on responses. As I suggested earlier, I had tons of offers to take mine off my hands the first time I posted about the comic.  Such caring generosity. So, if the maxim is buy low, sell high, You really need to do your homework and to look far and wide for opinions. CGC runs this place pretty much and  the specialty threads are dominated as well. 

.  In my barnyard, turkeys only get about 125 days and then weigh in at well over 25lbs.  But, they get this great car ride. But reality? Turkeys don't ever live 1000 days. 

[zosocane]

3 hours ago, 234wallst said:

The market is dominated by flippers.  That model can't be sustained unless there is true demand.  My guess is that has contributed to the downward trend as some flippers can't afford to hold the books and must take the current true market value.

On eBay alone, I just counted 57 slabbed copies of AF 15 for sale.  None of them is up for auction -- all BIN or BIN/OBO.

[Sweet Lou 14]

1 hour ago, zosocane said:

On eBay alone, I just counted 57 slabbed copies of AF 15 for sale.  None of them is up for auction -- all BIN or BIN/OBO.

Yeesh, that's a lot.

It seems we've all known for a long time that scarcity is not an issue with AF 15.  As a run collector who's been pursuing pretty much every SA Marvel book there is for the last 2+ years, I have a pretty good anecdotal feel for which books are actually hard to track down.  In some cases that seems to be genuine scarcity, in some cases it's because a book is going through a cycle of "hoarding" in the run-up to a hoped-for movie announcement, and in some cases it actually seems to be supply following demand -- in other words, lack of interest and demand for run-filler books seems to result in far fewer copies of such books being graded and brought to the market.

Obviously none of those really apply to a book like AF 15.  I think the level of interest in Spider-Man is pretty much permanently priced into the market.  The character's move to the MCU and the many-movies contract signed by Tom Holland constitute probably the biggest "market news" about the character, and it's hard to see what would raise the bar from here.  The good news is that Spidey (in all his incarnations -- see the Spiderverse movie) continues to be immensely popular and Marvel is doing a good job keeping him front and center, even down to all the little kids in their Spidey pajamas.

My hope for my AF 15, which I bought in 2017 for what I thought was a bargain then but now seems a bit higher than today's market, is that it simply retains its value and starts creeping up again eventually.

[Glassman10]

"retains its value" sounds right, but not if the investment is costing you on a daily basis.  Then, sometimes you have to dump the investment and lick your wounds.  In that period, it's a good idea to talk up the investment.  At this point I am not inclined to believe that more publicity will drive the book up, at least not on the basis of the current movie material particularly if it is actually pretty common.  

My caution is going out to the non flippe thinking about buying, or selling, not a popular position here . Watch your backside. Learn as much as you can and take your time. After fifty years, I went slow for two years, learning what was what.  Do follow GPA, it's an investment in market trends even if it's full of holes. Follow the auctions and pay attention. It tells you who is willing to pay what, based on condition.  Listen to the flippers at your peril.   They are reading this. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

2 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

"retains its value" sounds right, but not if the investment is costing you on a daily basis.  Then, sometimes you have to dump the investment and lick your wounds.  In that period, it's a good idea to talk up the investment.  At this point I am not inclined to believe that more publicity will drive the book up, at least not on the basis of the current movie material particularly if it is actually pretty common.  

My caution is going out to the non flippe thinking about buying, or selling, not a popular position here . Watch your backside. Learn as much as you can and take your time. After fifty years, I went slow for two years, learning what was what.  Do follow GPA, it's an investment in market trends even if it's full of holes. Follow the auctions and pay attention. It tells you who is willing to pay what, based on condition.  Listen to the flippers at your peril.   They are reading this. 

Thanks.  I'm an experienced collector, but this is definitely good advice that everyone should follow.  I assume when you talk about an investment "costing you on a daily basis" you're referring to financing big purchases with loans?  I would agree that with rare exceptions, it's a losing proposition to make big investments while carrying significant debt.

Talking specific books up or down is a very common practice on these boards -- often it's transparent enough that (I hope) people spot it immediately.  IMHO, the more insidious problem is the prevalence of Buy-It-Now listings on eBay at extremely inflated prices.  It seems to be an equally transparent attempt to wait out the market until that one person comes along who's desperate enough to overpay -- or at least, to get buyers so used to seeing a certain asking price on a book that anything less feels like some kind of bargain even though it's still a gross overpay.  I've seen so many examples of flippers buying a book and then immediately listing it for 50% or more above what anyone who's paying attention knows they just paid for it.  Buyer beware.

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

Do follow GPA, it's an investment in market trends even if it's full of holes.

 

4 hours ago, zosocane said:

On eBay alone, I just counted 57 slabbed copies of AF 15 for sale.  None of them is up for auction -- all BIN or BIN/OBO.

 

1 hour ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

IMHO, the more insidious problem is the prevalence of Buy-It-Now listings on eBay at extremely inflated prices.  It seems to be an equally transparent attempt to wait out the market until that one person comes along who's desperate enough to overpay -- or at least, to get buyers so used to seeing a certain asking price on a book that anything less feels like some kind of bargain even though it's still a gross overpay. 

These are perfect examples of the flaws with following GPA numbers far too closely.  

In particular, the case of the eBay so-called "auctions" (which BIN's clearly are not) for the more common latest hot  books.  Especially since they take into account only the few actual sales that does take place and yet does not take into account the tens or possibly even hundreds of other sales that fails to find a buyer at virtually the same price.  As a result, I generally think that GPA prices for the more common speclative books are skewed to the upside.   

Edited June 26, 2019 by lou_fine

[G.A.tor]

10 hours ago, 234wallst said:

I've kept a very close eye on 2.5/3.0/3.5 over the past 1.5 years, and within that time frame no doubt the price has peaked and has trended down this year (which is great news for me as I'm looking to acquire).  The 'continued to drop in value" statement has to be taken into proper context - over the past 1.5 years it's absolutely true; at least for the grades I specified - I can't speak to other ranges.  Over the longer term, no the statement would not be true.

I am only looking at public data such as CL/CC/HA/ebay/Hakes/CGC forums.  Can't speak to GPA or private dealer transactions.  As Gator pointed out there will be variances within the same grade but I am taking that into consideration as well.  A chipped 3.0 is down from where a chipped 3.0 was a year ago; likewise with a no MC today and a year ago.

Maybe some are down but as I specified we’ve bought and sold multiple copies in those grades you mentioned and every sale has been up. So again, I have to disagree with you that the market is down. Some segments might be, but not the overall market 

[234wallst]

15 hours ago, zosocane said:

On eBay alone, I just counted 57 slabbed copies of AF 15 for sale.  None of them is up for auction -- all BIN or BIN/OBO.

I think the point your are trying to make is nobody is auctioning them off to "take current market value".  But there are certainly examples of auctioned sales in completed/sold items.  There are at least 2 or 3 4.0 signature series that sold recently for $30k or less.

[zosocane]

4 hours ago, 234wallst said:

I think the point your are trying to make is nobody is auctioning them off to "take current market value".  

Kinda-sorta.  Either you have sellers that aren't in a hurry to sell, but for the 'right price' will sell (i.e., a price above current average market), or sellers that want to sell, but just don't have confidence that an auction is going to net them what they think is current market value (or a strike price that covers their acquisition cost + sales fees), so why take any chances -- and thus they resort to screening OBO bids.  This tells me there are a lot of flippers holding these for sale slabs.  This is just eBay.  HA and ComicConnect, by contrast, each have a couple of slabbed AF 15s coming up for auction on their signature and event auctions, respectively.

Edited June 26, 2019 by zosocane

[drdonaldblake1]

the Rocky Mountain cgc 7.5 recently sold on C/link for $145k

[mdube16]

My ADD wont let me read the entire thread, but is the jist of it someone will sell me a nice AF15 CGC 5.0 for 30k?   Please forward paypal for payment.

[Chaos_in_Canada]

1 hour ago, drdonaldblake1 said:

the Rocky Mountain cgc 7.5 recently sold on C/link for $145k

AF15(7oww) #0938894001 (scan from 01-31-2009), "Rocky Mountain" on label.

AF15(7oww) #0901771001 (scan from 04-17-2015), "Rocky Mountain" not on label.

AF15(75oww) #1570765001 (scan from 06-26-2019), "Rocky Mountain" on label.

Edited June 27, 2019 by Chaos_in_Canada