So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[lou_fine]

52 minutes ago, JollyComics said:

One more thing....few Action Comics #1 owners didn't like the idea of having their book to be encased.  One person still has a raw copy of Edgar Church Action Comics #1 (many people believe it would be NM 9.4 or NM+ 9.6) since 1977.  They like to keep them in safe places.

Well, all I can tell you is that if I own the Church copy of Action 1 or any of the other top GA books out there, I would certainly NOT be getting it graded and slabbed if it was simply going to be sitting in my personal collection.  

BTW:  It's not just the Church copy of Action 1 that Dave owns, but rather the entire Church run from Action 1 through Action 23, along with the Allentown copy of 'Tec 27 and the Church copies of all of the other early Batman 'Tec books, etc.etc.  

From a strict financial point of view, I've never quite understood the rationale for having your books graded and slabbed if you aren't planning to sell them yet.  Especially if it's an uber HG copy because once it gets graded, it also gets added into the CGC population census report.  This would serve only to put a damper on prices going forward if you now have the highest graded copy, and yet don't plan to sell it at this point in time.  As we all know, highest graded copies generally go for huge multiples, so wouldn't it be smarter financially to have your copy remain raw while somebody else's highest graded copies continues to drive the price up on your book.  If your book was already slabbed, potential bidders might not be willing to bid as high on the undercopies knowing that there is already a higher graded copy (i.e. your now slabbed copy) sitting out there.  No point to put a dampener on prices by having your copy graded already when you can simply sit back with your raw copy and watch bidders chased the market up on the price of your still to be slabbed book.  

[Glassman10]

41 minutes ago, OuterboroGuy said:

I kind of have a hard time believing there are a substantial number of "lost" or "undiscovered" collections of SA comics out there in closets, attics and basements.   Real collectors who have unslabbed books?  Yes, probably a lot of those, although with prices lately it would seem crazy for people not to slab and sell any extras they might have, unless they already drowning in cash.

I have no real idea of of how many are out there of all significant Comics but I'm quite convinced that raw copies vastly outnumber the copies in Slabs. The collection I was looking at is about 4,000 Comics- all raw and not stored well. I know of people who bought 100 copies each of Conan #1 on the stands. They still have them. Any serious speculator would buy far more than that. 

It's the not stored well part that is disturbing. A slab at least offers some protection, but expensive. Most people seem to do it to monetize it. I rarely see discussion about alternate ways to store the things without concern for the grade from CGC.  In a fifty year ownership cycle, I have seen a lot of fires, floods and other disasters. Many  hoarded collections are in the basement or the attic.  We all saw the Mile High collection surface forty some years ago. Vast numbers of collections like that keep showing up. 

[JollyComics]

22 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, all I can tell you is that if I own the Church copy of Action 1 or any of the other top GA books out there, I would certainly NOT be getting it graded and slabbed if it was simply going to be sitting in my personal collection.  

BTW:  It's not just the Church copy of Action 1 that Dave owns, but rather the entire Church run from Action 1 through Action 23, along with the Allentown copy of 'Tec 27 and the Church copies of all of the other early Batman 'Tec books, etc.etc.  

From a strict financial point of view, I've never quite understood the rationale for having your books graded and slabbed if you aren't planning to sell them yet.  Especially if it's an uber HG copy because once it gets graded, it also gets added into the CGC population census report.  This would serve only to put a damper on prices going forward if you now have the highest graded copy, and yet don't plan to sell it at this point in time.  As we all know, highest graded copies generally go for huge multiples, so wouldn't it be smarter financially to have your copy remain raw while somebody else's highest graded copies continues to drive the price up on your book.  If your book was already slabbed, potential bidders might not be willing to bid as high on the undercopies knowing that there is already a higher graded copy (i.e. your now slabbed copy) sitting out there.  No point to put a dampener on prices by having your copy graded already when you can simply sit back with your raw copy and watch bidders chased the market up on the price of your still to be slabbed book.  

It seemed that is all about pride. It's amazing to own that ulta-rare super-mega key comic books such in a superb condition to make a person feeling empowered.  I know an important person who lives near my home visited his old friend at his home. He showed off his raw copy of Action Comics #1. It didn't bother him but he showed me off his rarest 1938 prototype of Action Comics #1 (only three known books exist). I held it and felt so inferior easily and the worst part of me that I missed the chance to own AF #15 CGC 4.0 just few months before the record breaking sale of AF #15 CGC 9.6.  It's now unreachable. I don't see high grade AF #15 in market for few years.  They keep them while few low grade and crabby AF #15 copies are selling hot.

[Sweet Lou 14]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Is this another case of whether the chicken or the egg came first?  

If you are a long term comic book collector, I believe you should already have some general idea with respect to the potential value of your individual books.  Isn't this the basic piece of information which you need to have in the first place to figure out if your books are even worth to have them graded at all.  Especially if you are talking about pre-1975 BA books which are actually relatively common, and in more cases than not, would not even be worth grading at all once you add in all of the grading and other ancillary fees involved.  

From my own personal point of view, if I was planning to keep the books for my personal collection, slabs would simply take up so much more storage space than raw books.  In addition, you wouldn't be able to enjoy them the same way that you normally could with a raw comic book if they were entombed in one of those slabs.  The other major reason is that with all of the ongoing changes that CGC is constantly making with respect to label modifications, pedigree designation changes, restoration/conservation definition changes, etc.; your previously slabbed book might not actually be reflective of whatever the current grading system is when it comes time for you to sell your books.  

 

Sure, I had "some general idea" -- but in a collection of over 15,000 books, of which I deemed about 10% to be worth the cost and trouble to certify, there were many hidden defects and other disappointments.  Also somewhere between 6 and 10 books in the collection turned out to have had restoration, and not surprisingly just about all of those were keys (Avengers #2, Cap #100, Iron Man #55, and TOS #52 off the top of my head).  Was I supposed to leave all the books raw and let my wife and kids, who don't understand the hobby, figure all that out?

I'm not exactly sure where you draw the line on what's "worth" grading but for me, the goal was (and is) to assemble high-grade Silver Age runs (for most titles, I go into the Bronze Age through the 20-cent era) and that meant getting them all done.  And then upgrading hundreds of books that didn't make the cut.  Over the past three years I've made tremendous progress, and the finish line is coming into view.

I have the storage space (I posted pictures a while back in the "comic room" thread) and I also have every one of these books in both Marvel Masterworks (color) format and Essentials (B&W) format.  Any time I'd like to read the stories again, the slabs are no barrier to me.

Finally, if you're really predicting that some completely new grading system is going to spring up and render the certification of my books "obsolete" ... respectfully, I can sleep pretty soundly at night taking that bet.

[Foley]

2 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

We all saw the Mile High collection surface forty some years ago. Vast numbers of collections like that keep showing up. 

"Vast numbers of collections like the Mile High" do not keep showing up.

[Beige]

18 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

We are talking about a book from 1962 not 1939. It did not have to survive a World War among other things. What was the original print run ? 500K copies ? 1 Mil ?

To think only 2000+ untouched copies survived is nonsensical.

Nowhere in my post did I suggest only 2000 copies survived. I merely commented on blue labelled copies.

Please do not presume to infer things I did not write. It does you a disservice.

Edited January 3, 2020 by Beige
spelling

[Math Teacher]

4 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 In addition, you wouldn't be able to enjoy them the same way that you normally could with a raw comic book if they were entombed in one of those slabs. 

Seriously? If you had a Fine copy of Amazing Fantasy #15, you would read it every once in a while? That's just plain nuts.

I have a copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 in CGC 0.5. When I bought it in the early 2000s, I paid $600 for it. I had it slabbed 2 - 3 years ago, and it's now sitting in a safe deposit box. The thought of reading that issue NEVER crossed my mind. With all the Masterworks, Essentials, Omnibus(es), and Epic collections available, along with Marvel Online, you can easily read it at virtually any time.

I'm sure I'm going to be pilloried as a person who doesn't care about comics, but that is far from the truth. I have a full run of Fantastic Four, Amazing Spider-Man, and Daredevil. I have read virtually every comic in my collection. When I started on these expensive back issues, I didn't need to read that comic. I had read it earlier, most likely by using Marvel Collectors' Item Classics. It was most likely that I read the first 20+ issues of all the Silver Age Marvel super-heroes that way.

So, go ahead and read a comic that's worth $60,000 whenever you want. I'm sure that nothing will happen to it.

 

Joe

[Glassman10]

1 hour ago, Foley said:

"Vast numbers of collections like the Mile High" do not keep showing up.

If you are correct, no new copies are showing up and the competition is to buy and sell a finite number of Comics.  It assumes there will be no new available copies from anywhere. I don't believe that/  If that was indeed the case then the demand for finite copies would invariably drive markets up given a modest increase of buyers but demand seems to me to be a fairly smart bunch buying what is available at the best price. I continue to think there are a lot of AF 15's out there, far more than the CGC or the census might suggest.  I think that is likely true. Buyers are buying quality, not grade. 

[Math Teacher]

3 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I also have every one of these books in both Marvel Masterworks (color) format and Essentials (B&W) format.  Any time I'd like to read the stories again, the slabs are no barrier to me.

Testify, Sweet Lou!

 

Joe

[lou_fine]

37 minutes ago, Joe Ankenbauer said:

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 In addition, you wouldn't be able to enjoy them the same way that you normally could with a raw comic book if they were entombed in one of those slabs. 

Seriously? If you had a Fine copy of Amazing Fantasy #15, you would read it every once in a while? That's just plain nuts.

I have a copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 in CGC 0.5. When I bought it in the early 2000s, I paid $600 for it. I had it slabbed 2 - 3 years ago, and it's now sitting in a safe deposit box. The thought of reading that issue NEVER crossed my mind. With all the Masterworks, Essentials, Omnibus(es), and Epic collections available, along with Marvel Online, you can easily read it at virtually any time.

I'm sure I'm going to be pilloried as a person who doesn't care about comics, but that is far from the truth. I have a full run of Fantastic Four, Amazing Spider-Man, and Daredevil. I have read virtually every comic in my collection. When I started on these expensive back issues, I didn't need to read that comic. I had read it earlier, most likely by using Marvel Collectors' Item Classics. It was most likely that I read the first 20+ issues of all the Silver Age Marvel super-heroes that way.

So, go ahead and read a comic that's worth $60,000 whenever you want. I'm sure that nothing will happen to it.

Well, maybe it's just a case of to each, their own. 

Especially since comics are really meant to be enjoyed and if you are careful enough with them, they shouldn't really incur any damage to them.  

For example, here are some pictures of some old time collectors/boardies just geeking out and enjoying their books here:

Absolutely love that Church copy of Fantastic 3 which still managed to grade out as a CGC 9.4 copy after all of that perusing and also still managed to fetch something like a quarter of a million dollars in the Jon Berk Auction on CC a couple of summers ago.    

Wow, forgot that thread was so popular that it ran for an astonishing 175 pages in a few short months.     

Edited January 3, 2020 by lou_fine

[peewee22]

46 minutes ago, Joe Ankenbauer said:

Seriously? If you had a Fine copy of Amazing Fantasy #15, you would read it every once in a while? That's just plain nuts.

I have a copy of Amazing Fantasy #15 in CGC 0.5. When I bought it in the early 2000s, I paid $600 for it. I had it slabbed 2 - 3 years ago, and it's now sitting in a safe deposit box. The thought of reading that issue NEVER crossed my mind. With all the Masterworks, Essentials, Omnibus(es), and Epic collections available, along with Marvel Online, you can easily read it at virtually any time.

I'm sure I'm going to be pilloried as a person who doesn't care about comics, but that is far from the truth. I have a full run of Fantastic Four, Amazing Spider-Man, and Daredevil. I have read virtually every comic in my collection. When I started on these expensive back issues, I didn't need to read that comic. I had read it earlier, most likely by using Marvel Collectors' Item Classics. It was most likely that I read the first 20+ issues of all the Silver Age Marvel super-heroes that way.

So, go ahead and read a comic that's worth $60,000 whenever you want. I'm sure that nothing will happen to it.

 

Joe

I broke open a 7.5 WPs about 10 years go here on the Boards. I had to see those pages. Gorgeous (it is my avatar). Bought it for 42k before the spikes. Resubbed shortly after and luckily came back the same grade and PQ. Would I do it again? Probably not due to the current values and stricter resubbing.

[kimik]

10 hours ago, OuterboroGuy said:

I kind of have a hard time believing there are a substantial number of "lost" or "undiscovered" collections of SA comics out there in closets, attics and basements.   Real collectors who have unslabbed books?  Yes, probably a lot of those, although with prices lately it would seem crazy for people not to slab and sell any extras they might have, unless they already drowning in cash.

I keep finding them every year to two locally, and collections go to the local stores and other dealer/collectors as well. They are still out there and in strong hands. Heck, you can still find SA keys in garage sales if you are lucky - I had a friend land his 4.0-5.0 AF #15 this way while visiting family in Ontario a couple of years ago. 

[piper]

6 minutes ago, kimik said:

I keep finding them every year to two locally, and collections go to the local stores and other dealer/collectors as well. They are still out there and in strong hands. Heck, you can still find SA keys in garage sales if you are lucky - I had a friend land his 4.0-5.0 AF #15 this way while visiting family in Ontario a couple of years ago. 

The issue is finding higher graded copies.  Nice presenting VF or better raw Silver or Bronze seems to be coming much less common.

[Foley]

5 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

7 hours ago, Foley said:

"Vast numbers of collections like the Mile High" do not keep showing up.

If you are correct, no new copies are showing up and the competition is to buy and sell a finite number of Comics.  It assumes there will be no new available copies from anywhere. I don't believe that/  If that was indeed the case then the demand for finite copies would invariably drive markets up given a modest increase of buyers but demand seems to me to be a fairly smart bunch buying what is available at the best price. I continue to think there are a lot of AF 15's out there, far more than the CGC or the census might suggest.  I think that is likely true. Buyers are buying quality, not grade. 

No, the fact that new copies are showing up does not mean they are coming from collections like Edgar Church's.

The Church collection is the most remarkable ever discovered. There are zero collections like it showing up.

New collections showing up? Yes. Raw AF 15s that have never been to market? Yes. Vast numbers of collections like the Mile High? Absolutely not.

Also, it's a GA collection, so not really relevant to AF 15.

[kimik]

9 minutes ago, Foley said:

No, the fact that new copies are showing up does not mean they are coming from collections like Edgar Church's.

The Church collection is the most remarkable ever discovered. There are zero collections like it showing up.

New collections showing up? Yes. Raw AF 15s that have never been to market? Yes. Vast numbers of collections like the Mile High? Absolutely not.

Also, it's a GA collection, so not really relevant to AF 15.

There are nice GA collections still sitting in the hands of OO collectors or secondary collectors that have all of the keys, and some of them contain books that are unread/only read once or twice at most. The only question is whether they come to market or are held by the heir(s) that inherit them over the next decade or so as the collectors that assembled them pass on. 

[Prince Namor]

3 hours ago, kimik said:

There are nice GA collections still sitting in the hands of OO collectors or secondary collectors that have all of the keys, and some of them contain books that are unread/only read once or twice at most. The only question is whether they come to market or are held by the heir(s) that inherit them over the next decade or so as the collectors that assembled them pass on. 

I think there's no question in anyone's mind that over the next 20 years, we're going to see some amazing collections come to market, due to... time... 

But, even in the case of OO collections from the Golden Age, would they still be like the Mile High Collection? Those books were bought, read, and stored, by an ADULT - meticulously filed away - where no one touched them for decades... 

An original owner today would've been a kid when he bought an Action #1... how old was he when he decided to preserve it? How did it escape the first couple of decades of brothers and sisters and cousins and friends and parents and general carelessness, when no one could even conceive the idea of its value or collectibility like we do today?  Not saying it CAN'T have been preserved all of these years... just that it's a very rare thing...

Now multiply that by 18-22,000 comics.

We MAY someday see an Edgar Church type collection again... it's possible, but I think his point is that they do not 'keep showing up.' 

It was an amazing, possibly one of a kind collection, that we may never see it's type of again, even with the tidal wave of collections coming over the next 20 years or so. There'll be some amazing, mind blowing collections... but the MH collection will be a hard one to beat. Starting with a 9.4-9.6 Action #1.

[Gotham Kid]

9 hours ago, peewee22 said:

I broke open a 7.5 WPs about 10 years go here on the Boards. I had to see those pages. Gorgeous (it is my avatar). Bought it for 42k before the spikes. Resubbed shortly after and luckily came back the same grade and PQ. Would I do it again? Probably not due to the current values and stricter resubbing.

I thought you had a 8.0 copy.

[Gotham Kid]

7 minutes ago, Chuck Gower said:

the MH collection will be a hard one to beat. Starting with a 9.4-9.6 Action #1.

9.2/9.4 as per those that have seen it.

[NoMan]

Gem Mint breaks it down for us. 4:23 re: loss in value. Yo!

 

[peewee22]

6 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

I thought you had a 8.0 copy.

i do, different book different day