So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[MyNameIsLegion]

21 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

I have no real idea of of how many are out there of all significant Comics but I'm quite convinced that raw copies vastly outnumber the copies in Slabs. The collection I was looking at is about 4,000 Comics- all raw and not stored well. I know of people who bought 100 copies each of Conan #1 on the stands. They still have them. Any serious speculator would buy far more than that. 

It's the not stored well part that is disturbing. A slab at least offers some protection, but expensive. Most people seem to do it to monetize it. I rarely see discussion about alternate ways to store the things without concern for the grade from CGC.  In a fifty year ownership cycle, I have seen a lot of fires, floods and other disasters. Many  hoarded collections are in the basement or the attic.  We all saw the Mile High collection surface forty some years ago. Vast numbers of collections like that keep showing up. 

really? do tell.  

[Prince Namor]

13 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

9.2/9.4 as per those that have seen it.

Still pretty tough to beat. 

[Gotham Kid]

Looks like we won't be seeing the 9.4 go to auction after all. It has been pulled, likely on account of a private sale.

Edited January 4, 2020 by Gotham Kid

[peewee22]

1 hour ago, Gotham Kid said:

Looks like we won't be seeing the 9.4 go to auction after all. It has been pulled, likely on account of a private sale.

Guess I can spend the 12 cents I had saved. 

[lou_fine]

On 1/2/2020 at 12:16 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Sure, I had "some general idea" -- but in a collection of over 15,000 books, of which I deemed about 10% to be worth the cost and trouble to certify, there were many hidden defects and other disappointments.  Also somewhere between 6 and 10 books in the collection turned out to have had restoration, and not surprisingly just about all of those were keys (Avengers #2, Cap #100, Iron Man #55, and TOS #52 off the top of my head).  Was I supposed to leave all the books raw and let my wife and kids, who don't understand the hobby, figure all that out?

Well, unless it's for tax planning purposes, if you are really thinking of leaving 15,000 books for your family to deal with after you've gone to the big comic shop in the sky, then you must have a real hate on for them.  Especially since it sounds as though they don't care for the books at all and have absolutely zero understanding of the hobby, leaving them with 15,000 books to deal with will certainly leave them with deep and long lasting painful thoughts of you from beyond the grave.    

Seriously, even though I have only a fraction of the number of books which you have in your massive collection, my better half has made it quite clear that they wouldn't want to be stuck with having to deal with all of it afterwards.  For family members who have no interest or zero knowledge of the hobby at all, they would most definitely see something of this magnitude (i.e. 15,000 books) as an additional burden being placed on them.  Now, if you are talking about select copies of vintage higher dollar comics that are valued in the 4/5-figures or more that can easily be disposed off through an auction house, then that is definitely a completely different story.  

As I have stated many times before, it is a whole lot easier to sell one $10,000 comic book, as opposed to 1,000 $10 comic books in today's marketplace.  

 

On 1/2/2020 at 12:16 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Finally, if you're really predicting that some completely new grading system is going to spring up and render the certification of my books "obsolete" ... respectfully, I can sleep pretty soundly at night taking that bet.

Nothing so drastic that will make your certified books "obsolete" as they will always have more value as compared to raw books.  More like ongoing changes which they keep making to their own certification system which might not necessarily maximize your dollars if they are not sent back into CGC to reflect current changes which they have made.  For example, if you had a previously graded book that was designated as a restored PLOD book with either cleaning or tear seals, do you not think you could get more money for it if it was now residing in a quasi Blue/Grey Conserved case or if it was now an unrestored Universal copy in terms of simply having CCS remove the tear seal on the book?  Do you not think your mid-grade Harold Curtis, Eldon, Cookville, etc, books might fetch you a few more dollars if they were removed from their old non-pedigree non-designated regular cases and sent back into CGC to be slabbed in those brand spanking new pedigree cases?   

Just imagine how many more changes CGC will be instituting over the years just so they can ensure the exact same previously slabbed book is being sent back into them for additional revenue generating services going forward.    

[Sweet Lou 14]

8 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, unless it's for tax planning purposes, if you are really thinking of leaving 15,000 books for your family to deal with after you've gone to the big comic shop in the sky, then you must have a real hate on for them.  Especially since it sounds as though they don't care for the books at all and have absolutely zero understanding of the hobby, leaving them with 15,000 books to deal with will certainly leave them with deep and long lasting painful thoughts of you from beyond the grave.    

I think I'm going to let this little back-and-forth end here.  You were walking right up to the line of disrespecting the perfectly reasonable choices I've made as a collector, and this pretty much crosses it.  For the record, I never said it was my intention to leave 15,000 books behind.  What I did say is that I'm still in my 40s, hopefully a very long way from having to sell off my collection, but since life is unpredictable I did want to prepare as much as I can now.

You seem like a smart guy, and very well respected around here.  I would humbly suggest you give serious thought to dialing back on trying to tell other people what they should or should not be doing with their collections.  And don't ever comment on another person's family or what they might think of that person in a hypothetical scenario of your own creation.

[lou_fine]

6 minutes ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

21 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, unless it's for tax planning purposes, if you are really thinking of leaving 15,000 books for your family to deal with after you've gone to the big comic shop in the sky, then you must have a real hate on for them.  Especially since it sounds as though they don't care for the books at all and have absolutely zero understanding of the hobby, leaving them with 15,000 books to deal with will certainly leave them with deep and long lasting painful thoughts of you from beyond the grave.    

I think I'm going to let this little back-and-forth end here.  You were walking right up to the line of disrespecting the perfectly reasonable choices I've made as a collector, and this pretty much crosses it.  For the record, I never said it was my intention to leave 15,000 books behind.  What I did say is that I'm still in my 40s, hopefully a very long way from having to sell off my collection, but since life is unpredictable I did want to prepare as much as I can now.

You seem like a smart guy, and very well respected around here.  I would humbly suggest you give serious thought to dialing back on trying to tell other people what they should or should not be doing with their collections.  And don't ever comment on another person's family or what they might think of that person in a hypothetical scenario of your own creation.

Sorry that you took my comments the wrong way as I certainly didn't mean to disparage you in anyway at all.  

What to do with your collection is a topic that has been brought up many times here in the past and in fact, they have another active one going on right now on the GA boards.  I was just trying to add a bit of humour to it, since similar types of sentiments have been expressed by other board members in the past.  Obviously it would appear that you took it the wrong way and I sincerely do apologize if I have offended you in any way, because that was not my intention at all.  

BTW:  Kudos to you as it definitely does sound like you have put a lot of thinking into your long term plans for your collection, which is certainly something that I cannot say about myself.  

[Sweet Lou 14]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Sorry that you took my comments the wrong way as I certainly didn't mean to disparage you in anyway at all.  

What to do with your collection is a topic that has been brought up many times here in the past and in fact, they have another active one going on right now on the GA boards.  I was just trying to add a bit of humour to it, since similar types of sentiments have been expressed by other board members in the past.  Obviously it would appear that you took it the wrong way and I sincerely do apologize if I have offended you in any way, because that was not my intention at all.  

BTW:  Kudos to you as it definitely does sound like you have put a lot of thinking into your long term plans for your collection, which is certainly something that I cannot say about myself.  

I sincerely appreciate this thoughtful response.  Apology accepted.

[Gotham Kid]

On 1/4/2020 at 8:22 PM, peewee22 said:

On 1/4/2020 at 6:33 PM, Gotham Kid said:

Looks like we won't be seeing the 9.4 go to auction after all. It has been pulled, likely on account of a private sale.

Guess I can spend the 12 cents I had saved. 

Looks like the AF15 9.4 is back

You have that chance all over again.

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I sincerely appreciate this thoughtful response.  Apology accepted.

Happy and glad to hear.  

Yes indeed, let's get back to the fun discussion about the falling prices of AF 15, or should we change it to the rebounding prices of AF 15 according to a couple of recent sales as pointed out by a few boardies here.  

[MrBedrock]

16 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

16 hours ago, lou_fine said:

    

You seem like a smart guy...

Here is where it all went wrong.

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

18 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

19 hours ago, lou_fine said:

    

You seem like a smart guy...

Here is where it all went wrong.

Well, not only that, but he then actually went and doubled down with the following obviously ill-informed comment:

18 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

and very well respected around here. 

Go Figure that!!!    

Edited January 7, 2020 by lou_fine

[Glassman10]

On 1/6/2020 at 9:56 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I think I'm going to let this little back-and-forth end here.  You were walking right up to the line of disrespecting the perfectly reasonable choices I've made as a collector, and this pretty much crosses it.  For the record, I never said it was my intention to leave 15,000 books behind.  What I did say is that I'm still in my 40s, hopefully a very long way from having to sell off my collection, but since life is unpredictable I did want to prepare as much as I can now.

You seem like a smart guy, and very well respected around here.  I would humbly suggest you give serious thought to dialing back on trying to tell other people what they should or should not be doing with their collections.  And don't ever comment on another person's family or what they might think of that person in a hypothetical scenario of your own creation.

I like your approach. I would note that when I sold the AF15, I was hit with about 10K in cap gains with 20% riding on it. Fortunately I was able to pay that in the next tax season. No one from the IRS ever questioned or wanted to quantify the values. 

[Glassman10]

It does make me wonder how the taxes, in inheritance issues get dealt with on substantial collections. Value is determined by condition as well as market support but those opinions really vary substantially. A primo condition book carries substantial value and a mid grade likely does not, yet getting anyone to agree as to condition and subsequent value gets wierd.  If it's slabbed, that's one thing but if it's raw, it effectively hasn't been monetized and subsequently reaching consensus is a food fight.  I'd like to hear opinions or experience on that. 

[VintageComics]

On 1/2/2020 at 6:46 PM, Joe Ankenbauer said:

On 1/2/2020 at 3:16 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I also have every one of these books in both Marvel Masterworks (color) format and Essentials (B&W) format.  Any time I'd like to read the stories again, the slabs are no barrier to me.

Testify, Sweet Lou!

Some people like to flip through the original comics because that is the point of it.

I did.

The prized books in my collection were mostly raw and I flipped through them regularly. Marvel Comics #1, Marvel Mystery #2-13, Action #7, #15, some pre Robin Detective Comics etc.

I don't understand how you can be a collector and not want to look at your comics.

[VintageComics]

On 1/7/2020 at 2:53 AM, lou_fine said:

Happy and glad to hear.  

Yes indeed, let's get back to the fun discussion about the falling prices of AF 15, or should we change it to the rebounding prices of AF 15 according to a couple of recent sales as pointed out by a few boardies here.  

The discussion of whether the sky is falling or rebounding happens every few years.

People have been completely convinced that the sky is either falling or rebounding every few years on these chat forums (I've been involved in many of the discussions of the last 16 years)

People were convinced the sky was falling around 2010 (give or take a few years) when several Pedigrees (3 I think) all showed up at the same time that the stock market collapsed and pressing became a public thing.

AF #15 did a pull back about 10 years ago after a record breaking sale at the hobby in an uproar (Comiclink sold a 9.4 for about $212K IIRC)

Same thing happened when a copy of AF #15 isold for silly money ($50K I think for a raw copy as it was before CGC existed) through Sothebys over 20 years ago.

You guys and gals need to remember that there was a time when AF #15 (or Action #1 or pre Robin Tecs or whatever the flavor of the year is) were not 'hot' books and would sit unsold for long periods of time.

Fact is, the market is now too hyper focused and reactive to know. We'll probably know in a few years in much the same way that you don't know if a recession (or a depression) has started till after some time has passed.

 

[peewee22]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Some people like to flip through the original comics because that is the point of it.

I did.

The prized books in my collection were mostly raw and I flipped through them regularly. Marvel Comics #1, Marvel Mystery #2-13, Action #7, #15, some pre Robin Detective Comics etc.

I don't understand how you can be a collector and not want to look at your comics.

Ditto. I love opening the comics I love (within reason). Again, that's why I broke open a 7.5 years ago and caused panic here.

Feels like you just crashed into that year in HG Wells Time Machine.

[MrBedrock]

19 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Some people like to flip through the original comics because that is the point of it.

I did.

The prized books in my collection were mostly raw and I flipped through them regularly. Marvel Comics #1, Marvel Mystery #2-13, Action #7, #15, some pre Robin Detective Comics etc.

I don't understand how you can be a collector and not want to look at your comics.

Gosh Roy. You are so cool. You managed in one post to 1) show how experienced you are in this hobby with your neat old funnybooks that you used to own back in the day, 2) show how genuine and pure your collecting interests are because you flip through old paper, and 3) judge another collector who doesn't collect exactly like you do, demonstrating just how wrong they are.

Good job bro!

[bluechip]

19 hours ago, VintageComics said:

The discussion of whether the sky is falling or rebounding happens every few years.

People have been completely convinced that the sky is either falling or rebounding every few years on these chat forums (I've been involved in many of the discussions of the last 16 years)

People were convinced the sky was falling around 2010 (give or take a few years) when several Pedigrees (3 I think) all showed up at the same time that the stock market collapsed and pressing became a public thing.

AF #15 did a pull back about 10 years ago after a record breaking sale at the hobby in an uproar (Comiclink sold a 9.4 for about $212K IIRC)

Same thing happened when a copy of AF #15 isold for silly money ($50K I think for a raw copy as it was before CGC existed) through Sothebys over 20 years ago.

You guys and gals need to remember that there was a time when AF #15 (or Action #1 or pre Robin Tecs or whatever the flavor of the year is) were not 'hot' books and would sit unsold for long periods of time.

Fact is, the market is now too hyper focused and reactive to know. We'll probably know in a few years in much the same way that you don't know if a recession (or a depression) has started till after some time has passed.

 

At one time or another everything has been scorned.   And will be again.

 

[VintageComics]

19 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

Gosh Roy. You are so cool. You managed in one post to 1) show how experienced you are in this hobby with your neat old funnybooks that you used to own back in the day, 2) show how genuine and pure your collecting interests are because you flip through old paper, and 3) judge another collector who doesn't collect exactly like you do, demonstrating just how wrong they are.

Good job bro!

Or I was just trying to show that some collectors aren't afraid to handle expensive books (like you when you cracked all of your books out a few years ago) or adamstrange, who keeps his collection raw.

It wasn't a judgement,

Just as if I'd said "I don't understand how someone can find a Corvette attractive" if I found them unattractive.

A judgement would be if I said it was wrong.

The main point for me was that the Masterworks weren't a sufficient substitute because I enjoy the smell and feel of the raw comics but I do also understand the reason people keep them slabbed - preservation, store of value, liquidity and presentation (among other things).

I've always said to each their own.