So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[Dark Knight]

7 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

cap1 8.0 for offer

https://www.metropoliscomics.com/item/875923

 

And another.... I remember that error copy, personally not a fan of books like that.

[VintageComics]

4 hours ago, Dark Knight said:

By the amount of GA keys such as Cap 1, Supes 1, Bat 1 coming to market in such a short period of time (specially for Cap 1 and Supes 1 where in previous years a few copies per year pop up for sale), yeah some are panicking.

If you're talking auction books, most auction books are usually consigned months before the auctions start so I don't think it's related to coronovirus scare which is barely 2 months old and the markets have only been correcting for the last week or two, when most of these books were already ending.

[Dark Knight]

59 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

5 hours ago, Dark Knight said:

By the amount of GA keys such as Cap 1, Supes 1, Bat 1 coming to market in such a short period of time (specially for Cap 1 and Supes 1 where in previous years a few copies per year pop up for sale), yeah some are panicking.

If you're talking auction books, most auction books are usually consigned months before the auctions start so I don't think it's related to coronovirus scare which is barely 2 months old and the markets have only been correcting for the last week or two, when most of these books were already ending.

Yep auction books and wasn't even thinking about the effects of the coronavirus with the economic impact it is making when I made that statement.  

[Kalel38]

On 2/26/2020 at 5:57 PM, VintageComics said:

You need to adjust the zoom back a little on your telescope. The sky isn't falling unless you're a corporate boardroom and you're looking for a massive increase every year.

People are starting to lose perspective. NOTHING can sustain massive increases year after year. Just 4 years ago this book went for under $30K and about 6 years ago it wasn't even a $20K book.

If anything, the book is on exactly the rising trajectory it would have been on if we didn't see the sudden increases we saw 3 years ago when a few copies that were improvable set outlier records.

Well put.. We’ve had consistent growth for the past 8yrs in Silver age keys since Aven 1 came out. The sky isn’t falling it’s correcting itself as prices have increased so much on let’s say a Af 15 over the yrs some are hesitant on pulling the trigger on a 10k plus book now a days.Thats not chump change let’s not forget 

[peewee22]

11 hours ago, Kalel38 said:

Well put.. We’ve had consistent growth for the past 8yrs in Silver age keys since Aven 1 came out. The sky isn’t falling it’s correcting itself as prices have increased so much on let’s say a Af 15 over the yrs some are hesitant on pulling the trigger on a 10k plus book now a days.Thats not chump change let’s not forget 

Every college curriculum should require micro and macro economics as basic courses of study.

[Aman619]

when China stops quarantining and commerce opens up again we will have a timeline for how long we will be affected outside of China.  A graph I saw showed the reported cases and fatalities in China ballooning up, but then falling, just as the same curve was beginning to develop outside of China. Meaning it will pass through all parts of the world, wreaking havoc, but taper off.  leaving an unknown number of fatalities and critically sick victims....  At least thats one guess where we are going.

of course the severity and suddenness of its impact on life and the markets feels like a zombie apocalypse movie doesn't it?  One day everything is fine but you hear about a scary thing or phenomenon somewhere 1000s of miles away.  Its nothing to worry about.  Weeks later, store shelves are empty and zombies are walking around your block and you realize everything has changed for good!   thats another guess where we are headed.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Aman619

[Glassman10]

27 minutes ago, Aman619 said:

when China stops quarantining and commerce opens up again we will have a timeline for how long we will be affected outside of China.  A graph I saw showed the reported cases and fatalities in China ballooning up, but then falling, just as the same curve was beginning to develop outside of China. Meaning it will pass through all parts of the world, wreaking havoc, but taper off.  leaving an unknown number of fatalities and critically sick victims....  At least thats one guess where we are going.

of course the severity and suddenness of its impact on life and the markets feels like a zombie apocalypse movie doesn't it?  One day everything is fine but you hear about a scary thing or phenomenon somewhere 1000s of miles away.  Its nothing to worry about.  Weeks later, store shelves are empty and zombies are walking around your block and you realize everything has changed for good!   thats another guess where we are headed.

when airlines are cancelling flights, disneyland is closing for a month, CEO's are cancelling business meetings globally , supply lines are disrupted and the handling of the virus is handed to a non expert in communicable disease and  communication about the outbreak  and news is  under govt control, there's lots of reasons to not think everything is fine. I'm selling more stock today, expecting the market to continue to fall as long as uncertainty is the main game. I can buy them back once the market is stable. That's not easy to do with Comics. 

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

when airlines are cancelling flights, disneyland is closing for a month, CEO's are cancelling business meetings globally , supply lines are disrupted and the handling of the virus is handed to a non expert in communicable disease and  communication about the outbreak  and news is  under govt control, there's lots of reasons to not think everything is fine. I'm selling more stock today, expecting the market to continue to fall as long as uncertainty is the main game. I can buy them back once the market is stable. That's not easy to do with Comics. 

Any reason why you waited so long to sell since virtually all of these negative factors and extreme uncertainty were already clearly evident in the marketplace during the prior 4 weeks while the North American equity markets were happily away and setting new highs which didn't actually make much sense to me?    

Edited February 28, 2020 by lou_fine

[Glassman10]

48 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Any reason why you waited so long to sell since virtually all of these negative factors and extreme uncertainty were already clearly evident in the marketplace during the prior 4 weeks while the North American equity markets were happily away and setting new highs which didn't actually make much sense to me?    

well, not obvious to some of us being eternally optimistic. I had hoped for a less substantial drop but the four days were brutal. I got out still having substantial profit in both stocks- really substantial ,but it became the position that I would rather sell it now and buy it back when the market has stabilized if that happens in the immediate future. Right now, I prefer cash in those accounts to having a portfolio. Since I don't need that cash, I can watch from the sidelines with a little smaller investment portfolio. It would not have been as easy if it had been comics. The prior four weeks you mention would not have helped in my mind. 

[Lorne Malvo]

We won't see the full scope of the damage that corona virus has caused throughout the globe until 6 months or a year from now. In terms of economic growth, the ballooning and tapering off from one country to the next will have lasting repercussions for quite some time. Considering how much in debt people are in this country and the cost of healthcare, shutting down business or having a large amount of sick people unable to work will create a domino effect which can eventually lead to massive layoffs, stock market downturn, and housing market crash. Sadly, this is only the beginning. There has been reported cases of the virus and Mexico. If and when that number increases, us Americans will be in big trouble. 

[Ryan.]

Let's try to keep our heads here. 

[Tbone911t]

Maybe I'm just optimistic but I still don't see the cause for pandemonium. 2900 deaths worldwide is terrible, but the flu killed 55000 in the US alone in 2012-13.  I'm glad I moved about 1/3 of my stock portfolio to cash in December, this represents a huge opportunity to buy in at a huge discount in the the few months. I'll take APPL at a 20% discount....... 

[Glassman10]

Well, Lou's admonition aside, I have a tolerable  position. What I don't see is any immediate turnaround which is why I finally got out. You can't beat these things by supressing information and that's the current plan. It will have far reaching consequences more to the business cycle than likely to the health  situation. . 

[Aman619]

most people who panic sell off in free falling markets always wait too long and say they will buy back at the bottom. or when it "settles".  Problem is as history proves, if you are not still IN the market all the way down and back up, if you try to "time the market", you miss the 5 big uptick days that recoup a large % of your losses... a large percentage of what you need in gains to make you whole for your losses... this means that if you miss these big days on the way back up to 29000, your portfolio is still well short of where you were. You'd need the market to get back to 31000.  I sold out in 2001 and was sorry.  Hung in in 2008 and it turned out pretty good.  

this week is unpleasant. and may not be over. and sure makes we dream I sold off like I thought of doing because 29500 sure felt like a top for this run up, and cashing in huge profits isn't the worst thing!.  And because with the election coming up. the bull will probably have only a short lifespan left (and even if it went up another 10% it would give it all back when it died anyway!), regardless of who wins. Trump would be a lame duck, chickens coming home to roost likely before the 2nd term ends and the "good days" end, or, alternatively, fears about going back to big govt and/or "socialist" policies would kill it.  Im not picking sides, just laying out 2 alternatives come November from a market perspective, not a political one.

having said this, I leave t to the financial pros to speak to whats going on and is likely to happen.

[peewee22]

AF15 has survived 11 Presidents with various economic policies, crises, and catastrophes. It has seen alot. The webslinger will make it through this economic scare.

Edited February 29, 2020 by peewee22

[thunsicker]

5 hours ago, Batmanis#1 said:

3% - 4%  death rate is a whole lot of people if say 70% of the US gets the virus. That is 8.5 million to 11.2 million people dead. Life will get back to normal always does until doomsday arrives then who cares at that point you and I would just be trying to survive. That could be a long time away. This virus is not it but it likely will have a huge impact for 1-2 years.

If it hits at 90% then where talking 12.5 million dead. Could mutate and be worse. It will be a game changer for a few years for sure if it spreads. But it will get back to normal this is not a first in human history. And will not be the last either.

People think the government and military are not ready BS they have had plans in place for years for so many scenarios your head would spin. They are ready that is their job 24/7 365 days a year every year chaos or no chaos. They do not show their plans until it is time.

People need to get a grip/stay focused and be prepared let's get threw this as a nation. We have to be strong and now is it not a time to be weak minded and panic. Just like everyday one has to get his act together and get his job done this is no different. Some people will die (that is sad) but most will survive. And humanity will go on.

The common flu generally infects around 10% of the US population with a 1% mortality rate.  Covid 19 has a 2.3% mortality rate.  While it’s true that if 70% of the population got it and the mortality rate jumped up to 3-4% it would be horrible, neither of those are likely.

EDIT:  That’s not to say that we shouldn’t treat Covid 19 seriously.

Edited February 29, 2020 by thunsicker

[Math Teacher]

23 hours ago, Aman619 said:

most people who panic sell off in free falling markets always wait too long and say they will buy back at the bottom. or when it "settles".  Problem is as history proves, if you are not still IN the market all the way down and back up, if you try to "time the market", you miss the 5 big uptick days that recoup a large % of your losses... a large percentage of what you need in gains to make you whole for your losses... this means that if you miss these big days on the way back up to 29000, your portfolio is still well short of where you were. You'd need the market to get back to 31000.  I sold out in 2001 and was sorry.  Hung in in 2008 and it turned out pretty good.  

I'm 63 and my wife is 62. We have no intention of touching our investments until we are forced to (at the age of 72). At the age of 67 years, when I start drawing Social Security, I will be earning approximately $80,000 a year for just waking up in the morning ($48,000 from my IPERS pension and $30,000 from SS). When my wife retires, she will be earning approximately $30,000 from the same two resources. Our house is paid for, and the only debt we currently have is a car loan. If we can't make end meet by earning $108,000 a year, we're doing something terribly wrong.

We are still contributing to our various investments (IRA, Roth IRA, Brokerage account). Let the market fall for a while. It just gives us the chance to buy more mutual funds than the last 2-3 years. We will earn more money when the markets rise back up. Our financial adviser has told us that there has never been a 5-year stretch where the markets have not shown a gain. I'm fine with waiting this out.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Joe Ankenbauer
Typo

[lou_fine]

15 hours ago, Aman619 said:

most people who panic sell off in free falling markets always wait too long and say they will buy back at the bottom. or when it "settles".  Problem is as history proves, if you are not still IN the market all the way down and back up, if you try to "time the market", you miss the 5 big uptick days that recoup a large % of your losses... a large percentage of what you need in gains to make you whole for your losses... this means that if you miss these big days on the way back up to 29000, your portfolio is still well short of where you were. You'd need the market to get back to 31000.  I sold out in 2001 and was sorry.  Hung in in 2008 and it turned out pretty good.  

This is so very true as I personally find it virtually impossible to try to time the market, as opposed to simply spending time in the market.  

Most people in the marketplace don't see a fall occurring until it has already started and by the time they react, they usually have already absorbed the biggest part of the crash already.  Especially since the stock market is pretrty much like mountain climbing sometimes, in that it's usually a long and hard climb up to the top of the mountain, but a very fast drop when you fall off the mountain.  

Yes, for most regular retail investors, it's pretty hard to time the market if you are late to react to a market fall by even a day or so and then you combine this with Aman's scenario whereby you are also not there for the big up days.  

 

[lou_fine]

19 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

20 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Any reason why you waited so long to sell since virtually all of these negative factors and extreme uncertainty were already clearly evident in the marketplace during the prior 4 weeks while the North American equity markets were happily away and setting new highs which didn't actually make much sense to me?    

well, not obvious to some of us being eternally optimistic. I had hoped for a less substantial drop but the four days were brutal. I got out still having substantial profit in both stocks- really substantial ,but it became the position that I would rather sell it now and buy it back when the market has stabilized if that happens in the immediate future. Right now, I prefer cash in those accounts to having a portfolio. Since I don't need that cash, I can watch from the sidelines with a little smaller investment portfolio. It would not have been as easy if it had been comics. The prior four weeks you mention would not have helped in my mind. 

Well, I guess I must have been an eternal optimist just like you since I also held onto most of my equities just like you, although I did consider selling some of them at the end of January.  I think I was fooled by the fact that the North American markets just kept on setting new records on an almost daily basis throughout this whole Coronavirus fiasco that was taking place in the rest of the world.  These continuing record stock market close definitely didn't make sense since it was bound to affect the health of all companies with travel bans in place, supply lines cut, etc, but I guess I must be a collector at heart.    

Actually, if you are thinking of stocks like Visa or Mastercard, you don't even have to go back as far as 4 weeks, since you would have done well if you had sold only 10 short days ago.  Especially since Visa had climbed to their all-time high range of about $210 - $215 about 10 days ago (i.e. almost 4 weeks AFTER the Coronavirus outbreak was announced) before dropping back into the $180 to $190 range during this past week.  Similarly with Mastercard, which had climbed to their all-time high range of about $340 to $350 about 10 days ago before falling back into the $280 to $290 price range during this past week.  

Sadly for me, I don't own any Mastercard, but being the collector that I am, will continue to hold onto the very few shares of Visa which I did pick up back in the day at around $20 a share spile adjusted and just collect their dividends until the share price goes back up again since i don't need the money right now anyways.    

[lou_fine]

13 hours ago, thunsicker said:

18 hours ago, Batmanis#1 said:

3% - 4%  death rate is a whole lot of people if say 70% of the US gets the virus. That is 8.5 million to 11.2 million people dead. Life will get back to normal always does until doomsday arrives then who cares at that point you and I would just be trying to survive. That could be a long time away. This virus is not it but it likely will have a huge impact for 1-2 years.

If it hits at 90% then where talking 12.5 million dead. Could mutate and be worse. It will be a game changer for a few years for sure if it spreads. But it will get back to normal this is not a first in human history. And will not be the last either.

People think the government and military are not ready BS they have had plans in place for years for so many scenarios your head would spin. They are ready that is their job 24/7 365 days a year every year chaos or no chaos. They do not show their plans until it is time.

People need to get a grip/stay focused and be prepared let's get threw this as a nation. We have to be strong and now is it not a time to be weak minded and panic. Just like everyday one has to get his act together and get his job done this is no different. Some people will die (that is sad) but most will survive. And humanity will go on.

The common flu generally infects around 10% of the US population with a 1% mortality rate.  Covid 19 has a 2.3% mortality rate.  While it’s true that if 70% of the population got it and the mortality rate jumped up to 3-4% it would be horrible, neither of those are likely.

EDIT:  That’s not to say that we shouldn’t treat Covid 19 seriously.

If you look at the underlying numbers themselves, I would tend to agree with you.  I believe most people are overreacting to the current situation because of all of the media and news scarce hype, coupled with the fact that this is a new variant strain which they do not understand yet.

I can just imagine what people's reactions would be and where the stock market would be if they led off the top of the hour news everyday with the daily body count stats for the regular seasonal flu.  Especially since the United States alone by itself had something like 45 million flu cases with 61,000 associated deaths due to just the regular seasonal flu for last year:

https://cnsnews.com/article/international/michael-w-chapman/cdc-estimate-45-million-flu-cases-61000-flu-associated

So, if the news media focused on the 45 million seasonal flu cases as compared to the 66 Coronavirus cases and the 61,000 associated deaths as compared to the zero Coronaviru related deaths to date so far, I can just see the Dow and S&P approaching zero already.