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So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?
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1,031 posts in this topic

On 3/13/2020 at 11:26 PM, Joe Ankenbauer said:

 

The current mortality rate is somewhere between 3% - 4%. This means the survival rate is somewhere between 96% - 97%, Unfortunately, we never hear that mentioned on the news, be it CNN or Fox News.

 

FYI, that is actually a horrible number and isn't good (and it has been higher in other areas). By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected and is far less contagious than this virus. On a global scale that could amount to around 250 million deaths (edit: I think this death number is based on a 2% mortality rate, so for corona it's higher) if precautions are not taken to stifle it's spread at this time. Also keep in mind the viral load for carriers (those not displaying symptoms) have been estimated to be anywhere from two to five times as contagious as those showing early symptoms (so i'll happily work from home this week, and won't miss pubs or concerts for a month but still find time with friends for other activities)
 

Edited by Sauce Dog
clarified mortality rate / population percentage
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"In the USA, approximately 1500 people per year die if unemployment goes up 1%, while globally it is around 30,000 per year for each 1% increase in unemployment."

There comes a point where the virus and the economy will meet, and we as society determine how many lives are worth saving and how many marginalized deaths we are okay with having. 

Like I said and no one answers, why are we okay with all the thousands of FLU deaths per year but freak out for something new when it obviously isnt the worse thing to ever spread through the earth, and yes I am not doctor or scientist but CV-19 is obviously not in the same level of other pandemics.  Mortality rate for is very small.  Most people say all the right things about saving lives, but just wait till they dont have money after a couple months.  Let's see how they feel about their quote on quote humanity empathy then. lol

 

2 week of a soft lockdown, sure thing!

4+ weeks.......good luck with that! I expect divorce rates to skyrocket.  Most people would rather get the virus then have their kids, spouse, and kids at home 24/7.

Edited by NewWorldOrder
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On 3/6/2020 at 12:36 AM, VintageComics said:

It's frustrating to read all these comments on the internet (both here and social media) that think the 9.4 book sold cheap.

This 9.4 copy sold for $95,000 more than the last 9.4 sold for.

Think about that. :makepoint:

The copies of AF #15 that are selling less than the peak of two years ago ARE STILL SELLING FOR MORE THAN THEY WERE 3 YEARS AGO. A LOT MORE.

2017 was an outlier because a few upgradeable copies set records and then some additional copies went for strong numbers based on those outlier numbers.

I sold a 7.0 for $35K about 8 years ago. Now, 8 years later weak copies are still fetching $80K? And that's a complaint?

People need to stop hyper focusing on what books are selling for month to month, week to week etc. You're losing all perspective, folks.

Well at least we agree on this.  (thumbsu

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12 hours ago, NewWorldOrder said:

 . . .

There comes a point where the virus and the economy will meet, and we as society determine how many lives are worth saving and how many marginalized deaths we are okay with having. 

Like I said and no one answers, why are we okay with all the thousands of FLU deaths per year but freak out for something new when it obviously isnt the worse thing to ever spread through the earth, and yes I am not doctor or scientist but CV-19 is obviously not in the same level of other pandemics.  . . .

I think it is less the number of deaths but more the prospect of thousands of very sick people at the same time and dying on gurneys in the hospital hallways without any chance of getting a ventilator . . . and the severe adverse affect on the system being able to deliver other non-coronavirus-related medical services during that time.  But yes, in absolute terms, the number of deaths themselves would be easier to bear economically than what we are facing with economic shutdown.

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13 hours ago, NewWorldOrder said:

Like I said and no one answers, why are we okay with all the thousands of FLU deaths per year but freak out for something new when it obviously isnt the worse thing to ever spread through the earth, and yes I am not doctor or scientist but CV-19 is obviously not in the same level of other pandemics.  Mortality rate for is very small.  Most people say all the right things about saving lives, but just wait till they dont have money after a couple months. 

John, from what I've read medical staff is so overwhelmed in heavily affected countries that they are leaving people to die on gurneys, in hallways, choking in their own phlegm while they tend to people who have a greater rate of survival. And we're just discussing CV-19 infections. What about all the regular stuff that happens in day to day life? Workplace accidents, car accidents, chronic routine illness? Those don't stop happening (although hopefully they slow down with less people on the streets)

Think about that.

That there are 'only' a few 1000 deaths right now are because the medical system  is working overtime, around the clock.

In affected countries, doctors and nurses (and other health care workers) are not being given shifts. They are only told to work as much as they can. So they work to exhaustion, rest and then work again.

I just read that the province of Alberta only has 300 ICU (intensive care units) beds in the entire province. What happens if you have more than 300 people who need ICU?

They don't get it

Read it again: People are being left to die untreated because the virus spreads so quickly there are not enough resources to help them.

Because you can easily have 10,000' or 100,000's or even millions dying within a matter of weeks.

Some projections put the estimated number of deaths into the millions by the time this all gets under control in some way.

That's why people are worried.

 

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31 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Read it again: People are being left to die untreated because the virus spreads so quickly there are not enough resources to help them.

Because you can easily have 10,000' or 100,000's or even millions dying within a matter of weeks.

Some projections put the estimated number of deaths into the millions by the time this all gets under control in some way.

I know that it's a completely different society and all that in terms of tighter government control and citizens listening and adherring to what they say, but it seems that China with its massive and dense population was able to wrestle this virus down to the ground and at least have it down to much more manageable levels within a 6-weeks time frame or even less.  hm

Of course, that's also because they could build entire hospitals within a 10-day time period.  To the point that Chinese billionaires like Jack Mah are now sending 500,000 Coronavirus tests kits and a million surgical masks to America to help them out in their time of need:  :applause:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jack-ma-coronavirus-test-kits-chinese-billionaire-alibaba-shipping-masks-supplies-to-united-states-donating/

 

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My wife has been in health care all her life. She sees a fear in her nurses & staff that she has never seen before. The unknown per se. Short supply of desperately-needed materials and who knows if and when. Only 22 (known) cases in Arkansas. Too early to even speculate how many really are affected. hm

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4 hours ago, VintageComics said:

John, from what I've read medical staff is so overwhelmed in heavily affected countries that they are leaving people to die on gurneys, in hallways, choking in their own phlegm while they tend to people who have a greater rate of survival. And we're just discussing CV-19 infections. What about all the regular stuff that happens in day to day life? Workplace accidents, car accidents, chronic routine illness? Those don't stop happening (although hopefully they slow down with less people on the streets)

Think about that.

That there are 'only' a few 1000 deaths right now are because the medical system  is working overtime, around the clock.

In affected countries, doctors and nurses (and other health care workers) are not being given shifts. They are only told to work as much as they can. So they work to exhaustion, rest and then work again.

I just read that the province of Alberta only has 300 ICU (intensive care units) beds in the entire province. What happens if you have more than 300 people who need ICU?

They don't get it

Read it again: People are being left to die untreated because the virus spreads so quickly there are not enough resources to help them.

Because you can easily have 10,000' or 100,000's or even millions dying within a matter of weeks.

Some projections put the estimated number of deaths into the millions by the time this all gets under control in some way.

That's why people are worried.

 

Yes I understand what you are saying.  However I also been hearing many people are going in when they have mild symptoms and are wasting medical staff's time and energy.  80% min dont need to be treated.  The panic of people is costing people more lives than the virus if treated.  Obviously this shutdown will make strides in helping, and in my opinion I think people are being utterly ridiculous when they think this will last months.  I can see sometime in April the easing of public forums being re-opened.   Just my opinion......

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At one time in my life, this was my career and involved HIV at auto accidents . It took a complete change in mindset at every level. No one is even asking about the accident victim who happens to be COVID 19 positive and stats say they exist in droves. 

Triage, from the French means to sort. So, we sort at the ER and people complain when they see people geting wheeled in who got there later. They are critical triage when looking at the clock. . Save them now, or forget it. When we did accident scenes with 10 or more victims, we triaged. It's hearbreakingly cruel.  It won't be over in a few weeks as suggested by someone. 

 

Soon triage will be a very big part of this as we continue to "sort". It didn't have to be this way. Blame the feds, really , even if it violates your tribal conditioning.  We're holed up in the great north woods now and there are runs on the stores. What that really says is people  en masse have lost faith in their government.   Will AF 15 go down? It almost seems silly to talk about. If you have nothing, you won't buy it.  Either that, or you'll have no one to sell it to. That brings prices down for sure. 

Edited by Glassman10
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1 hour ago, NewWorldOrder said:

However I also been hearing many people are going in when they have mild symptoms and are wasting medical staff's time and energy.

How that is handles all depends on front line staff.

Most them should be triaged and turned away fairly quickly.

1 hour ago, NewWorldOrder said:

Obviously this shutdown will make strides in helping, and in my opinion I think people are being utterly ridiculous when they think this will last months.

It's ALL going to depend on how well people self-quarantine. In China, where they take no BS and just enforce isolation it took several weeks to get it under control.

I don't see people being as compliant here and I can see it running on much longer than just 3 weeks.

The NBA is not planning on resuming for 60 days and even after they resume after 2 months (if all goes well) they plan on playing in empty arenas. That loose plan of action should tell you something about what might be coming.

What is ridiculous is saying it's not a big deal, when you can literally go from a few people dying to 100's dying in a week or two and you can go to 1000's dying (in each country) in a month when it is entirely preventable through isolation.

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The willingness of the medical staff is there and many facilities have a game plan (drive thru set up etc). Lack of supplies is the major setback. Masks are desperately needed in Central Arkansas and I'm sure elsewhere. I've heard 3M is the only (or largest) manufacturer of these. There is no firm plan on medical supplies and that scares me. 

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Yeah I agree the supplies are lacking and the lack of COVID-19 testing kits, and yet no signs of a vaccine of some sort (who knows how long that will take), but how about the medical staff operating at practically 24/7.  There's only so much doctors and nurses working in a given shift, patients outnumbering them by a large margin with this new viral strain. Also a possibility of those same medical workers getting infected and now your staff has cut down.  Number of available beds too in each facility, also taking into consideration other inpatients with medical illnesses.  It's just a mess out there.  

The people in China did an incredible job actually listening to the news, government, etc. to stain quarantined for so and so days.  They listened and now the number of cases are down.   Europeans have it bad due to their poor healthcare and government system, giving full-time treatments to the younger ones infected and letting the elderly just succumb to their illnesses.  Here in the USA, it was split 50/50 it seemed early one when the virus first arrived here between people who wanted to stay out of the public life for now and do self-containment and the rest didn't really care like it was a joke and it wasn't a big deal.  Now that numbers are growing with those infected and dying numbers shifted towards more on the self-quarantine group, while the rest still live their life as if nothing is happening.  Well, it might be too late now because I predict there will be an exponential growth in the number of infected and deaths in the next few weeks.  I hope I am wrong..

Yeah a lot of people still in heavy panic mode buying and stocking in large quantities supplies, food, etc. and not leaving anything for anyone else.  Because people are doing it in mass numbers, everyone else is following suit because no one wants to be stuck without anything.  This also plays a huge role and adds to the problem.  

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26 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

Well, it might be too late now because I predict there will be an exponential growth in the number of infected and deaths in the next few weeks.  I hope I am wrong..

The numbers on this site seem to support your concern...there has been a spike in cases here in the U.S. in the last few days (increase from 3,680 cases on Sunday to 6,439 cases today), but that could also be because testing is becoming more available...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited by silverseeker
Corrected a grammar error. :-)
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1 hour ago, Dark Knight said:

The people in China did an incredible job actually listening to the news, government, etc. to stain quarantined for so and so days.

I don't think that's how it works in China. lol

I think that when China insists that the general public do something, they do it. There were probably dire consequences if you disobeyed.

 

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1 hour ago, silverseeker said:

The numbers on this site seem to support your concern...there has been a spike in cases here in the U.S. in the last few days (increase from 3,680 cases on Sunday to 6,439 cases today), but that could also be because testing is becoming more available...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

In countries where the pandemic overwhelmed the health care systems, there was an average rise of about 30% a day before containment started to reduce numbers.

I'd expect US numbers to sky rocket because up until a week or so ago they only had 77 people tested. :eek:

There are probably several 1000's carrying the virus that have not had tests yet.

 

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23 minutes ago, VintageComics said:
1 hour ago, Dark Knight said:

The people in China did an incredible job actually listening to the news, government, etc. to stain quarantined for so and so days.

I don't think that's how it works in China. lol

I think that when China insists that the general public do something, they do it. There were probably dire consequences if you disobeyed.

I guess sometimes strong autocratic leadership has its strong point, instead of treating everything as a hoax.  

But I guess I better not say anymore since I cannot afford another warning from the Mods or else I am off the boards here.  :(

 

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14 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I guess sometimes strong autocratic leadership has its strong point, instead of treating everything as a hoax.  

But I guess I better not say anymore since I cannot afford another warning from the Mods or else I am off the boards here.  :(

 

Now that's autocracy!  I feel left out. I haven't been warned once. 

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18 hours ago, VintageComics said:

I'd expect US numbers to sky rocket because up until a week or so ago they only had 77 people tested. :eek:

Source?

As of Monday over 25,000 tests had been administered in the United States according to the Centers For Disease Control.  https://covidtracking.com

The problem is, it needs to have been at least 10 times that amount to have helped mitigate the spread of the disease.

Edited by namisgr
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