So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?
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So, why has AF #15 continued to drop In value in all grades the past year?

I've been following this book quite closely on GPA for years, as do many folks I'm sure. It's not not unusual to see seasonal price variations--especially between Christmas and tax season--only to see it pick up steam again during con season. But it's not happening this year. It just keeps trending downwards, while other books continue to rise. Has the book FINALLY plateaued? Regardless, what do you think is causing this? hm

Cheers!

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1 minute ago, Gotham Kid said:

a gazillion copies floating around with more being graded every week (shrug)

Yeah, but couldn't the same be said about EVERY 1962 to present comic? Are younger collectors less interested in Spidey?

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AF 15 seemed to have a surge in prices over the last 5 years that really couldn't be explained since popularity in spider-man hasn't exploded over the last 5 years.  Unexpected spikes in prices are usually followed by price corrections. 

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The latest 9.2 sale was just short of 600k. Is that a downward trend? Not sure, have not seen any trend data on a comparable sale of a 9.2. 

A year from now we'll be discussing the recent upward trends.

 

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7 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

AF 15 seemed to have a surge in prices over the last 5 years that really couldn't be explained since popularity in spider-man hasn't exploded over the last 5 years.  Unexpected spikes in prices are usually followed by price corrections. 

Given that AF 15 is the # 1 key in the silver age, it's not difficult to understand why it's surged in value. AF 15 doesn't need any external stimuli beyond that fact. Having said that, an adjustment if even only a small one is long overdue on this book. I think peewee is correct. A year from now we'll be discussing yet another upward trend. 

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26 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

AF 15 seemed to have a surge in prices over the last 5 years that really couldn't be explained since popularity in spider-man hasn't exploded over the last 5 years.  Unexpected spikes in prices are usually followed by price corrections. 

Exactly. AF #15 hit a plateau last year. Better $ value can be gained in other vintage comics like ASM #1, FF #1, 4, 5, Batman #1, Showcase #4, Avengers #1 comparatively.

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It's been pretty solid in grades of Coverless-3.0 and 7.0 and above though. Everything between that has seen a solid drop. Now seems like a good time to buy imop.

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Posted (edited)
On 6/21/2019 at 1:32 PM, Jeffro™ said:

Given that AF 15 is the # 1 key in the silver age, it's not difficult to understand why it's surged in value. AF 15 doesn't need any external stimuli beyond that fact. Having said that, an adjustment if even only a small one is long overdue on this book. I think peewee is correct. A year from now we'll be discussing yet another upward trend. 

I wasn't meaning to be harsh about this book - it's the key Silver-Age book.  But while other books had a good steady climb over the last 4 years AF 15 saw a huge jump that wasn't due to new movies or speculation (FF 48 or even FF 1).  It became the FOMO book and everyone grabbed any copy they could and now supply seems to be exceeding demand with the new prices.  It still seems pretty expensive but it definetely will continue to be the holy grail of Silver-Age collectors so who know what will happen in the next few years.

Edited by 1Cool

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2 hours ago, peewee22 said:

The latest 9.2 sale was just short of 600k. Is that a downward trend? Not sure, have not seen any trend data on a comparable sale of a 9.2. 

A year from now we'll be discussing the recent upward trends.

 

across all grades?

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All things go up and all things go down just the way it is . It is still one of the best Marvels including FF1 which started it all out there and no time to panic.The hobby is all about cycles some hot and some not but the market is always changing.:popcorn:

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I'm interested in why the big Spiderman books (AF15, AM 1) shoot up when it's not motivated by cinema? (Look at me sounding all fancy) I mean there's Spidey movies every 23 minutes. So the run up of two or three years ago wasn't MCU related. So it's the FOMO. But what triggers this? What triggers that "all the sheep running into the barn" gif?

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9 minutes ago, NoMan said:

across all grades?

Probably not.

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There does seem to many, many, many copies of this book. Wonder if it's truly the "bullet proof" investment every auction house website claims it to be? If it's "bullet proof" in a higher grade, wonder where that grade starts. 9.2? There just so many of these books. More everyday it seems to me. 

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4 minutes ago, NoMan said:

There does seem to many, many, many copies of this book. Wonder if it's truly the "bullet proof" investment every auction house website claims it to be? If it's "bullet proof" in a higher grade, wonder where that grade starts. 9.2? There just so many of these books. More everyday it seems to me. 

Like any early Marvel there is an abundance of low to mid grades out there. Bullet proof is a harsh term. Not sure if any SA comic is bullet proof but AF15 in 8.0 and higher seems to be a safe bet. And don't forget the collectors that really love the book (like me). Value is secondary to me (but important)..Generations of collectors, both old and new, love Spidey.

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2 hours ago, KEY ISSUES Comics said:

So, why has AF #15 continued to drop In value in all grades the past year?

I've been following this book quite closely on GPA for years, as do many folks I'm sure. It's not not unusual to see seasonal price variations--especially between Christmas and tax season--only to see it pick up steam again during con season. But it's not happening this year. It just keeps trending downwards, while other books continue to rise. Has the book FINALLY plateaued? Regardless, what do you think is causing this? hm

Cheers!

Simple: It hasn't. And it never will over time. "Now" is always a good time to buy this book in any grade, basically. If you want one and procrastinate you'll regret it later. It will cost more.

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58 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Like any early Marvel there is an abundance of low to mid grades out there. Bullet proof is a harsh term. Not sure if any SA comic is bullet proof but AF15 in 8.0 and higher seems to be a safe bet. And don't forget the collectors that really love the book (like me). Value is secondary to me (but important)..Generations of collectors, both old and new, love Spidey.

how about your thoughts on what triggers a FOMO explosion like we saw 2 or 3 years ago? As I said earlier I don't think it's MCU related so do you believe it's one book auction related. Or a mass psychosis?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, twmjr1 said:

Simple: It hasn't. And it never will over time. "Now" is always a good time to buy this book in any grade, basically. If you want one and procrastinate you'll regret it later. It will cost more.

I don't think that's true. Member here named Glassman sold a 5.0 for 50k (about) during the peak of AF15 madness about two years ago. A 5.0 recently sold for 30k (about). Obviously the book is more important than the grade in the corner, does it have MC or not? , but man that's 20 grand downturn in two years. I'd be weary of just buying an AF15 in 2019 cause it's a sure thing.

Edited by NoMan

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, aardvark88 said:

Exactly. AF #15 hit a plateau last year. Better $ value can be gained in other vintage comics like ASM #1, FF #1, 4, 5, Batman #1, Showcase #4, Avengers #1 comparatively.

Its a great Book but FF1 should and will be the king ! Top 5 Maybe de-facto silver age #1 for now, but its just not my favorite silver key.  I would and do own a AMS#1 and have always chosen that over AF 15 I sold my AF 15 a while back and not once have I looked back.  I think i will be able to pick it back up cheaper in the coming years. It went on way to fast paced of a rise to sustain. It also definitely suffered from dealer and flipper churn.

Edited by paul747

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1 minute ago, NoMan said:

I don't think that's true. Member here named Glassman sold a 5.0 for 50k (about) during the peak of AF15 madness about two years ago. A 5.0 recently sold for 30k (about). Obviously the book is more important than the grade in the corner, does it have MC, but man that's 20 grand difference in two years. 

Who sold the 1st 5.0 book? Bob Storms did. Bob seems to get max sales and the most from a book. What did each 5.0 look like? We may not be apples to apples in this comparison.

But the market has softened a little. An 8.0 sold for 261k  a year or so ago and recently one sold for 220k-ish.

.

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