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So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?
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1,031 posts in this topic

3 minutes ago, NoMan said:

Such a "truism" is like saying a book will always be found in the dollar long box and, well, we now see how that's going these days.

Serious and sincere request, not designed to provoke.

Please provide a brief list of "wall books" that you predict will displace AF 15 10 years from now.

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It’s interesting that all I did was point out that 2 strong sales just occurrred and automatically they are outliers.  Maybe they are or maybe they are not but please don’t compare the number 1 Marvel silverage book to variants.  Isn’t it a good thing that 2 strong sales just occurred?  There was a low sale of 28800 and now a strong one at 41k.  It shows me that there is still demand for this book.  I would never touch a variant for more than cover price.

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8 hours ago, NoMan said:

many major dealers/auction houses have been in communication with me regarding the shocking decline of AF15s. No one's really sure what to do at this point but unload unwanted product (in this case AF15) and stocking up on what is selling: variants. Believe me, I'm not happy about it either. But variants are selling. Like Mad. Again, go to Frank and Sons in Los Angeles and collectors are literally fighting over the latest 1:5000 variant and than I see people offer crazy money to those people top let them go. .

It's called progress and it's not always easy. Who wants to buy an original Tom Mix doll? Nobody, that's who. Pretty soon the kids aren't gonna know the importance of AF15 (heck if they don't already) and you hoarding yours for years and years ain't gonna help in your sideways strategy of "cashing out" ain't gonna work if you wait much longer. I predict in less then 10 years they stop becoming "wall books."

Oy. Variants are the new foil glow in the dark covers with trading cards we had back in the speculator boom of the 90’s. We’re you around then?

the first appearance of spider man is always going to be a huge book worth a big chunk of change. Just like all the silver age marvel keys. 
 

manufactured scarcity is a fools game. You can maybe make quick cash flipping these stupid variants but in the long term they’ll end up in the dollar bins. Just like all the 90’s “collectors item issues” I don’t care if there’s only 40 books of a “venomized” cover. No one will care soon enough and all the people going crazy for variants will have gotten burnt out.  
 

like I said, enjoy some short term flipping but in the long term these bazillion variants are a joke in terms of real value. 

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4 hours ago, ORRGO THE UNCONQUERABLE said:

Oy. Variants are the new foil glow in the dark covers with trading cards we had back in the speculator boom of the 90’s. We’re you around then?

t

Yes I was and I was really drunk then.too.  

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There used to be a poster, his user ID escapes my mind right now, where he would do the opposite as you NoMan where he would always pump up the value of AF 15 that it will only increased in value every year.  Sadly, he no longer posts anymore since the value of AF 15's have dipped. I thought it was very entertaining.

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16 minutes ago, Dark Knight said:

There used to be a poster, his user ID escapes my mind right now, where he would do the opposite as you NoMan where he would always pump up the value of AF 15 that it will only increased in value every year.  Sadly, he no longer posts anymore since the value of AF 15's have dipped. I thought it was very entertaining.

Yeah where is that dude?

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On 6/21/2019 at 1:15 PM, NoMan said:

which brings me back to a conversation I was having with Vintage Comics yesterday that I left because I probably wasn't explaining my thoughts/question/example well enough for anybody to understand but my cat:

AF15 8.0 sells for record amount. Some folks think, "Hey I've got 7.0/7.5/8.0 and now seems the time to sell, cause, well the 8.0 just sold for record amount. Time to cash in. These books come to market and instead of record amounts they sell for less, because, the Deep Pocket Guy already spent his money on the 8.0. So, in my World's Greatest Comic Book Collector developing mind, I'm coming to the conclusion that a record sale doesn't guarantee continued record sales and perhaps right after a record sale is not the time to sell

But what do I know? Not much, I admit. 

don't bring up this post! I hadn't started seriously drinking yet.

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My recollections in having held my AF15 for close to fifty years showed that after any economic recession ended, the price surged. I would imagine that people who needed cash were selling to get some and the price gotten was tolerable. Then, after the recession ended, the price surged. Right now, I see a remarkable recession that came close to flattening many of us and following that, the price of the AF15 exploded with the help of popularizing Spidey in the movies. Now, It's hard to imagine that increase continuing unabated.  In art, those of us who sold their work for a living recognized that the pond of qualified customers was actually kind of small, and we had to fight for our perches.  I think the pool for the AF15 is finite s well even though there surely are lots of them. Just because you put one up for sale doesn't guarantee it will sell.  These days it strikes me that the grade isn't selling, it's the quality of the book. Having a low grade 5.0 sell for less than a stellar price suggests to me that buyers are being far more careful getting the best copy at the best price. 

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On 11/1/2019 at 8:12 AM, Glassman10 said:

My recollections in having held my AF15 for close to fifty years showed that after any economic recession ended, the price surged. I would imagine that people who needed cash were selling to get some and the price gotten was tolerable. Then, after the recession ended, the price surged. Right now, I see a remarkable recession that came close to flattening many of us and following that, the price of the AF15 exploded with the help of popularizing Spidey in the movies. Now, It's hard to imagine that increase continuing unabated.  In art, those of us who sold their work for a living recognized that the pond of qualified customers was actually kind of small, and we had to fight for our perches.  I think the pool for the AF15 is finite s well even though there surely are lots of them. Just because you put one up for sale doesn't guarantee it will sell.  These days it strikes me that the grade isn't selling, it's the quality of the book. Having a low grade 5.0 sell for less than a stellar price suggests to me that buyers are being far more careful getting the best copy at the best price. 

Market dynamics aren't that complex when you paint with a broad stroke. People need to eat and need shelter, period. If the market dips, or God forbid looks anything like 10-12 years ago, people panic and sell-off collectibles and unnecessary items. That extra demand quickly impacts the value and generally rockets them downward. Those who have extra cash pick them up and hold. It's the whole "the rich get richer" concept in a nutshell.

Looking for deals? Have physically money ready for the next turn down and buy, buy, buy. It's also about spare cash and patience.

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Having a buyers fee, a sellers fee, sales tax and capital gains tax make this unattractive for me at this point. I do love comics but buying five and six figure books you can't even look at doesn't work so well.  I keep a substantial amount of cash in my portfolio to buy stocks after one of the marklet's horrendous  neurotic crashes. The prices are always clear, the transactions rapid and the potential for fraud minimized. It's not quite day trading but  with some securities, the bottom just won't fall out. You can't quick sell  with comics unless you slash the price substantially.  

 

Comics as a financial issue still seem simple to me. Demand will keep such comics as AF15 always in the speculative picture more because people want the thing than any others. As with any commodity, they will seek the best price for the value or they're in a rarified position where money is not an issue.  Not true in most cases. I don't see it in variants at all. 

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