So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?
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Besides the incredible $10,000 paid for an incomplete 0.5 - current prices are right back in line with GPA 2017 averages. I speak only for GPA, not dealers.

 

The world is in turmoil, people are worried about $$ again, so maybe there is a slight air of caution in bigger books currently. Big events in UK in December and USA in 2020 might want to make people hold off on spending a fair wedge of disposable income.

When things settle, perhaps people will have more peace of mind to purchase bigger books.

 

It seems prudent, and lets not forget, some of the prices a 7.0+ have gone for will buy you a house. Maybe sometimes we forget how lucky we are to be able to afford such things, even in the lowest of grades.

 

I consider myself very lucky to have a low grade book (took a year to save for it) - and I only buy books with $$ I make from selling collections of comics,magazines,playboys etc etc that I buy in the wild.

 

No way would I have paid for an AF #15 out of my salary as things currently stand here in Australia - we are teetering on a recession and my home value has dropped 20% over the last 3 yrs - as has most everyone else's here.

I'm lucky that I have stable recession-proof employment, but a lot of people in the world don't, so I understand the caution around high value purchases for the average guy (like me!).

1210947754_AF15CGC2.5.jpg.305cdc1c1dd6b09d03daccfafde09387.jpg

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51 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Did I quote your post?  Or are you proclaiming to be one of the experts that I'm referring to?

Well, you almost never quote posts and you mentioned 'experts come back out' right after I posted for the first time in a while so I wasn't sure. lol

And I proclaim only to know what I know. :blush:

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8 minutes ago, Beige said:

Besides the incredible $10,000 paid for an incomplete 0.5 - current prices are right back in line with GPA 2017 averages. I speak only for GPA, not dealers.

 

The world is in turmoil, people are worried about $$ again, so maybe there is a slight air of caution in bigger books currently. Big events in UK in December and USA in 2020 might want to make people hold off on spending a fair wedge of disposable income.

When things settle, perhaps people will have more peace of mind to purchase bigger books.

 

It seems prudent, and lets not forget, some of the prices a 7.0+ have gone for will buy you a house. Maybe sometimes we forget how lucky we are to be able to afford such things, even in the lowest of grades.

 

I consider myself very lucky to have a low grade book (took a year to save for it) - and I only buy books with $$ I make from selling collections of comics,magazines,playboys etc etc that I buy in the wild.

 

No way would I have paid for an AF #15 out of my salary as things currently stand here in Australia - we are teetering on a recession and my home value has dropped 20% over the last 3 yrs - as has most everyone else's here.

I'm lucky that I have stable recession-proof employment, but a lot of people in the world don't, so I understand the caution around high value purchases for the average guy (like me!).

1210947754_AF15CGC2.5.jpg.305cdc1c1dd6b09d03daccfafde09387.jpg

That's a nice looking 2.5  

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I'm not shy or passive aggressive when it comes to calling out a poster.  

The high end market "pulse" goes up and down based on that last GPA sale which is sad because frankly the biggest contributors to that index are the auction houses and frankly they don't care one bit about the market. 

As I said before the business model is Churn em/Burn em.  If the market is up,  great for us,  if the market is soft,  great for us to since we are still making money.  

Great business model,  only risk is that auction results cover those auction consignor advances and that the buyers still come.  

Why do you think the auction houses are so aggressive to get material?  You need to feed the machine.   Comic Graded Crack and you'll be back.

 

Edited by blazingbob

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1 hour ago, blazingbob said:

I'm not shy or passive aggressive when it comes to calling out a poster.  

 

Oh c'mon Bob, you're a softy.

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10 hours ago, Beige said:

Besides the incredible $10,000 paid for an incomplete 0.5 - current prices are right back in line with GPA 2017 averages. I speak only for GPA, not dealers.

 

The world is in turmoil, people are worried about $$ again, so maybe there is a slight air of caution in bigger books currently. Big events in UK in December and USA in 2020 might want to make people hold off on spending a fair wedge of disposable income.

When things settle, perhaps people will have more peace of mind to purchase bigger books.

 

It seems prudent, and lets not forget, some of the prices a 7.0+ have gone for will buy you a house. Maybe sometimes we forget how lucky we are to be able to afford such things, even in the lowest of grades.

 

I consider myself very lucky to have a low grade book (took a year to save for it) - and I only buy books with $$ I make from selling collections of comics,magazines,playboys etc etc that I buy in the wild.

 

No way would I have paid for an AF #15 out of my salary as things currently stand here in Australia - we are teetering on a recession and my home value has dropped 20% over the last 3 yrs - as has most everyone else's here.

I'm lucky that I have stable recession-proof employment, but a lot of people in the world don't, so I understand the caution around high value purchases for the average guy (like me!).

1210947754_AF15CGC2.5.jpg.305cdc1c1dd6b09d03daccfafde09387.jpg

Thanks for sharing for one of the most simple, yet accurate reasons why the book has cooled off/plateaued the past year. I too own a copy that was obtained under similar circumstances as yours. 

Edited by KEY ISSUES Comics

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16 hours ago, blazingbob said:

Interesting that as soon as there are some recent GPA sales the experts come back out.  God forbid some AF #15's sell on dealer websites because as we know you can only buy from the GPA Store.

Short term/instant profit gratification continues to be the norm.  If I can't upgrade it/I won't buy it continues.  Most of my listings should come with a "Where should I mail the check to" since clearly if it is upgradeable I should give you that money.  

Anybody with half a brain should be able to figure out that by adding in upwards of an additional 10% sales tax on top of buyer fees will drive down many of the big ticket GPA results since those GPA reporting websites are required to collect sales tax. 

Auction houses continue to be the "market" since we all know that this is the MOST clear communicator of the market.  CHURN em and BURN them since we make money whether you do or not.

Thanks for your input Bob, especially the taxes part. I haven't used Ebay in a decade, so I had forgotten about the changes made in regards to charging sales tax and that is my #1 reference (in tandem with GPA, which is essentially the same thing). So, yeah, that clearly has to be factored into the "value" of copies sold there. But it's been about a year since I've noticed a downward trend that is apparently continuing on sales made there. I'd figure that appreciation would start to compensate for the sales tax to bring the realized prices back to where they were a year ago, but it's not quite there. Still trending downwards.

And another poster claims that this "thread is wrong" and that this is a price correction instead of a drop in value. Is that not the same thing if the "correction" is a decrease in price? I'm not sure I understand that statement if I've accurately interpreted it. hm

Great stuff folks. Insightful exchange for the most part. (thumbsu

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On 11/13/2019 at 2:27 AM, VintageComics said:

Anybody intellectually honest that has been following this conversation between you and I has already seen history bear witness.

 

I've never said that comic books only go up. Does that make me a bad dealer or a good dealer? :makepoint:

It makes you not insane ;)

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I hope to purchase a copy next year so, expect prices to rise until buy one.

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2 hours ago, KEY ISSUES Comics said:

 

Thanks for your input Bob, especially the taxes part. I haven't used Ebay in a decade, so I had forgotten about the changes made in regards to charging sales tax and that is my #1 reference (in tandem with GPA, which is essentially the same thing). So, yeah, that clearly has to be factored into the "value" of copies sold there. But it's been about a year since I've noticed a downward trend that is apparently continuing on sales made there. I'd figure that appreciation would start to compensate for the sales tax to bring the realized prices back to where they were a year ago, but it's not quite there. Still trending downwards.

And another poster claims that this "thread is wrong" and that this is a price correction instead of a drop in value. Is that not the same thing if the "correction" is a decrease in price? I'm not sure I understand that statement if I've accurately interpreted it. hm

Great stuff folks. Insightful exchange for the most part. (thumbsu

There will always be three camps

Camp one that has one and wants the book to climb in value so when they are hanging out with their comic buddies you have something interesting to say.  "Hey,  have you seen what AF #15's are selling for now?  Glad I got one :)"

Camp two is the camp that wants the book to go down back into the price range that they can buy one at.  After the buy they want to move to Camp #1.

Camp three is the group that comes to my booth telling me that when they win the lottery they will buy one.  It doesn't matter where the price goes.  

At some point somebody will always be right.

 

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20 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

what if subby1938 or sc22 or whatever the last name he was going by comes back ? I won't be able to take the torment.

You know you miss him :bigsmile:

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36 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

There will always be three camps

Camp one that has one and wants the book to climb in value so when they are hanging out with their comic buddies you have something interesting to say.  "Hey,  have you seen what AF #15's are selling for now?  Glad I got one :)"

Camp two is the camp that wants the book to go down back into the price range that they can buy one at.  After the buy they want to move to Camp #1.

Camp three is the group that comes to my booth telling me that when they win the lottery they will buy one.  It doesn't matter where the price goes.  

At some point somebody will always be right.

 

Indeed.      In my world, people would always look at my work and say "I could do that if I only knew how."

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8 hours ago, UncleBEN said:

CT removal masked as wear?

 

https://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=859966

 

 

ama12_777a.jpg.8686a7741da7d767836e1720b1ac9770.jpg

Definitely CT scraping (and small holes).  I've seen worse.  This actually still presents nicely from the front.  But look at the back cover..... 3 pieces are missing, 1 of which is sizable.

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6 hours ago, KEY ISSUES Comics said:

 

Thanks for your input Bob, especially the taxes part. I haven't used Ebay in a decade, so I had forgotten about the changes made in regards to charging sales tax and that is my #1 reference (in tandem with GPA, which is essentially the same thing). So, yeah, that clearly has to be factored into the "value" of copies sold there. But it's been about a year since I've noticed a downward trend that is apparently continuing on sales made there. I'd figure that appreciation would start to compensate for the sales tax to bring the realized prices back to where they were a year ago, but it's not quite there. Still trending downwards.

And another poster claims that this "thread is wrong" and that this is a price correction instead of a drop in value. Is that not the same thing if the "correction" is a decrease in price? I'm not sure I understand that statement if I've accurately interpreted it. hm

Great stuff folks. Insightful exchange for the most part. (thumbsu

The title of the thread would have you believe that the book is falling off a cliff and never returning.

But Bob is right in the sense that most people take a very narrow (or even selfish) view of the market through GPA (or whatever 'last sale' info you use) and base their opinion on that, rather than zooming the lens out a little, factoring in a little 'thinking' and knowledge and then coming up with an entirely different opinion.

I was just trying to add some perspective, which a lot of posts seem to be lacking.

If there is a downward trend in any traded market, it's usually led by fear...and those with the narrowest view usually lead with the most fear because every movement downwards triggers a panic.

Edited by VintageComics

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1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

The title of the thread would have you believe that the book is falling off a cliff and never returning.

But Bob is right in the sense that most people take a very narrow (or even selfish) view of the market through GPA (or whatever 'last sale' info you use) and base their opinion on that, rather than zooming the lens out a little, factoring in a little 'thinking' and knowledge and then coming up with an entirely different opinion.

I was just trying to add some perspective, which a lot of posts seem to be lacking.

If there is a downward trend in any traded market, it's usually led by fear...and those with the narrowest view usually lead with the most fear because every movement downwards triggers a panic.

Roy, if you were to just guess what AF15 prices will do in the next 2 years would you say up, down, or somewhat flat? 

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2 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Roy, if you were to just guess what AF15 prices will do in the next 2 years would you say up, down, or somewhat flat? 

Can anyone answer that question?

Honestly, it's one of the things I dislike about the hobby most because while everyone professes 'love for the book' it's really become 'love for the profit' so I tend to not get involved with discussions like that.

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14 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Can anyone answer that question?

Honestly, it's one of the things I dislike about the hobby most because while everyone professes 'love for the book' it's really become 'love for the profit' so I tend to not get involved with discussions like that.

You know me. I could care less about the profit otherwise I would have parachuted and banked an easy six figures. Just following this crazy thread on values.

I knew you would cop out on the estimate. :bigsmile:

 

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9 hours ago, blazingbob said:

There will always be three camps

Camp one that has one and wants the book to climb in value so when they are hanging out with their comic buddies you have something interesting to say.  "Hey,  have you seen what AF #15's are selling for now?  Glad I got one :)"

Camp two is the camp that wants the book to go down back into the price range that they can buy one at.  After the buy they want to move to Camp #1.

Camp three is the group that comes to my booth telling me that when they win the lottery they will buy one.  It doesn't matter where the price goes.  

At some point somebody will always be right.

 

I'm Camp #1!  :banana:

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16 minutes ago, GAMBIT said:

I'm Camp #1!  :banana:

Since I own a copy of the book, I'm also in Camp #1 ... but I'm not looking for crazy gains, I'm just looking for my investment to hold its value and perhaps gain steadily over the long haul.

Edited by Sweet Lou 14

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