So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[jimbo_7071]

On 6/21/2019 at 1:09 PM, Gotham Kid said:

a gazillion copies floating around with more being graded every month

The first reply hit the nail on the head. It could have some occasional upticks, but it will continue to drop in value. There are just SO MANY copies out there!

[peewee22]

1 hour ago, jimbo_7071 said:

The first reply hit the nail on the head. It could have some occasional upticks, but it will continue to drop in value. There are just SO MANY copies out there!

Probably makes better sense for the lower grade copies. The higher grades (8.0+) will probably not drop that much. I can't see multiple HG AF15s coming from grandmas' attics. 

[jimbo_7071]

8 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Probably makes better sense for the lower grade copies. The higher grades (8.0+) will probably not drop that much. I can't see multiple HG AF15s coming from grandmas' attics. 

I would agree that the lower-grade copies will be more severely affected, but unless you're talking about the handful of very high grade copies, which are conspicuous consumption items (like the White Mountain copy), everything will take a hit--a significant hit. Original-owner GA collections are still showing up (including high-grade collections); there's really no telling how many original-owner SA collections are still out there.

[peewee22]

20 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I would agree that the lower-grade copies will be more severely affected, but unless you're talking about the handful of very high grade copies, which are conspicuous consumption items (like the White Mountain copy), everything will take a hit--a significant hit. Original-owner GA collections are still showing up (including high-grade collections); there's really no telling how many original-owner SA collections are still out there.

A significant hit? So, should we dump our AF15s before the downfall? Maybe re-align our 401ks? Is N Korea going to bomb the US in 2020? 

Any other significant changes that you know about would be appreciated.

Edited December 31, 2019 by peewee22

[Beige]

And yet, most grades are showing as being close to, equal or significantly higher than the 2018 averages.

I'd say the book has stabilised - for now.

2020 - who knows?

[peewee22]

2 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

Here's some news for you: you apparently can't handle people telling you anything that bursts the fantasy bubble you're living in. Go out and buy all the AF15's you can. Don't go by GPA, pay whatever the sellers are asking, even for rag copies. Happy New Year, @$$h0!3.

 

I'm putting my AF15 on ebay as we speak. I could care less about the iconic book or character, it's all about the financial gain. You may have all the  AF15 holders cashing in with your above "significant hit" prediction.

Edited January 1, 2020 by peewee22

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Beige said:

And yet, most grades are showing as being close to, equal or significantly higher than the 2018 averages.

I'd say the book has stabilised - for now.

2020 - who knows?

I've always personally believe that the comic book market tends to be very cyclical in terms of its various segments.  

By this, I mean that although the heat will be on AF 15 for awhile, it will tend to move somewhere else like Hulk 181 after the fire gets too hot.  When the heat gets too high on the Hulk 181's, the fire will then move to another segment of the marketplace like the FF's and the X-Men books.  Haven't we actually seen this exact movement during the past few years.  This, I believe is the natural cycle that takes place and the fire will eventually circle back to Af 15 and the rest of the Spidey books after that.  

Just take a look at the GA marketplace where the marketplace was literally on fire for the pre-Robin 'Tec books a few years ago before moving onto the early Action Supes cover books.  It then went onto the 2nd or 3rd tier publishers like Fox and Centaur, before hitting the Baker GGA classic cover books last year and has now shifted big time onto the L.B. Cole bookswhere low grades or even restored copies seems to often be selling for huge multiples to condition guide.  

As a result, although AF 15 might appear to be currently in a holding or cooling temporary phase for now, this might actually be the best time to pick one up and then wait to hold on for the next big leg up in the marketplace.    

 

[jimbo_7071]

@peewee22

I guess I hit a nerve with my assessment of the AF15 situation. Your mistake is in assuming that I care one way or another whether people sell their AF15s. AF15 is probably safer than the many SA books that have been in demand due to movie tie-ins, but prices will continue to decline.

-

I hope that other collectors do as I do and buy what they like and sell what no longer fits their collections.

-

Now that I know that your reply to my first post was an attempt to bait me into a confrontation because you couldn't handle my (data-driven) evaluation, I'll happily disengage.

Edited January 1, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[peewee22]

3 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

@peewee22

I guess I hit a nerve with my assessment of the AF15 situation. Your mistake is in assuming that I care one way or another whether people sell their AF15s. AF15 is probably safer than the many SA books that have been in demand due to movie tie-ins, but prices will continue to decline.

-

I hope that other collectors do as I do and buy what they like and sell what no longer fits their collections.

-

Now that I know that your reply to my first post was an attempt to bait me into a confrontation because you couldn't handle my (data-driven) evaluation, I'll happily disengage.

It's all good dude. Yes, buy what you love, that is what it is all about. 

[peewee22]

13 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I've always personally believe that the comic book market tends to be very cyclical in terms of its various segments.  

By this, I mean that although the heat will be on AF 15 for awhile, it will tend to move somewhere else like Hulk 181 after the fire gets too hot.  When the heat gets too high on the Hulk 181's, the fire will then move to another segment of the marketplace like the FF's and the X-Men books.  Haven't we actually seen this exact movement during the past few years.  This, I believe is the natural cycle that takes place and the fire will eventually circle back to Af 15 and the rest of the Spidey books after that.  

Just take a look at the GA marketplace where the marketplace was literally on fire for the pre-Robin 'Tec books a few years ago before moving onto the early Action Supes cover books.  It then went onto the 2nd or 3rd tier publishers like Fox and Centaur, before hitting the Baker GGA classic cover books last year and has now shifted big time onto the L.B. Cole bookswhere low grades or even restored copies seems to often be selling for huge multiples to condition guide.  

As a result, although AF 15 might appear to be currently in a holding or cooling temporary phase for now, this might actually be the best time to pick one up and then wait to hold on for the next big leg up in the marketplace.    

 

Makes sense. 

[Gotham Kid]

my prediction for 2020 is that more AF15s will be graded than in 2019 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Gotham Kid

[peewee22]

5 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

my prediction for 2020 is that more AF15s will be graded than in 2019

and there may be more resubs than graded books.  i know so many collectors who are considering resubbing.

[Gotham Kid]

1 minute ago, peewee22 said:

and there may be more resubs than graded books.  i know so many collectors who are considering resubbing.

Hopefully they will submit the former labels when they do.

[peewee22]

1 hour ago, Gotham Kid said:

Hopefully they will submit the former labels when they do.

Too big of a risk I think. It could teeter totter either way.

Edited January 1, 2020 by peewee22

[GAMBIT]

AF15 will always be an incredibly indemanded book. Value can/will/does fluctuate throughout the years,  but will never burst.  Unless the whole comic collecting hobby bursts.   

 

Oh. And Happy New year!

[Northwest]

5 hours ago, GAMBIT said:

AF15 will always be an incredibly indemanded book. Value can/will/does fluctuate throughout the years,  but will never burst.  Unless the whole comic collecting hobby bursts.   

 

Oh. And Happy New year!

There is demand for the book, yes, but it is also about how the market can sustain the price level with the increase in supply (due to original SA collectors retiring/downsizing).  In a no reserve auction environment, there are only a finite number of potential buyers. Each time a copy is purchased, that means one less buyer at that price point so you shift to the next willingness to pay on the demand curve. This requires having enough buyers with a high enough valuation to maintain prices (a comparable shift to demand), which may be challenging as economic growth decelerates and demographics shift. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

36 minutes ago, Northwest said:

There is demand for the book, yes, but it is also about how the market can sustain the price level with the increase in supply (due to original SA collectors retiring/downsizing).  In a no reserve auction environment, there are only a finite number of potential buyers. Each time a copy is purchased, that means one less buyer at that price point so you shift to the next willingness to pay on the demand curve. This requires having enough buyers with a high enough valuation to maintain prices (a comparable shift to demand), which may be challenging as economic growth decelerates and demographics shift. 

All true.  But what you're saying can be applied to every book in the Silver Age, and we would theoretically see an even more precipitous decline in the Golden Age market where the collectors (I assume) are even older.

The hope of collectors like myself is that there will be an influx of new demand from younger buyers, acquiring greater means as they come of age, that will sustain and even grow the market for these key books.  That of course depends in part on an assumption that characters like Spider-Man, like older characters such as Superman and Batman, will remain prominent in the broader popular culture.

[Northwest]

1 minute ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

All true.  But what you're saying can be applied to every book in the Silver Age, and we would theoretically see an even more precipitous decline in the Golden Age market where the collectors (I assume) are even older.

The hope of collectors like myself is that there will be an influx of new demand from younger buyers, acquiring greater means as they come of age, that will sustain and even grow the market for these key books.  That of course depends in part on an assumption that characters like Spider-Man, like older characters such as Superman and Batman, will remain prominent in the broader popular culture.

The difference is the potential buyer population for 5-figure silver age books is much less than 3 and 4-figure keys. So yes this would also apply to Showcase 4, but mid-grade Thor 165 (for example) has a much wider buyer pool. Golden age has a more finite and known (proportionally) supply. So we might see a handful of Cap 1s hit the market but not thousands as we do with AF15. The real hope should be that international buyers shift the demand curve to more than absorb this generational increase in supply. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

8 minutes ago, Northwest said:

The difference is the potential buyer population for 5-figure silver age books is much less than 3 and 4-figure keys. So yes this would also apply to Showcase 4, but mid-grade Thor 165 (for example) has a much wider buyer pool. Golden age has a more finite and known (proportionally) supply. So we might see a handful of Cap 1s hit the market but not thousands as we do with AF15. The real hope should be that international buyers shift the demand curve to more than absorb this generational increase in supply. 

The international buyers topic has been discussed, and (IMHO unfairly) mocked ... personally I do think the global success of the superhero films has a good chance of spurring some international demand.

[lou_fine]

56 minutes ago, Northwest said:

In a no reserve auction environment, there are only a finite number of potential buyers. Each time a copy is purchased, that means one less buyer at that price point so you shift to the next willingness to pay on the demand curve.

Your theory that you had posted would definitely be correct if the market was made up of pure comic book collectors only.  

In actual fact though, a significant portion of the comic book market is comprised of short-term flippers and mid-term investors who are more than willing to pick up copies (even multiple copies at that) as long as they believe there is going to be continuing upward movement on the price of the book.  Their only rationale for buying is not to keep the book, instead it is to sell if for a profit at a higher price point going forwards.  

Edited January 2, 2020 by lou_fine