So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?
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4 hours ago, Krishosein said:

I think this might be a factor into answering the OP question as MCU might have had that much of an impact, but I am guessing that maybe a few realized it wont go up much more and some might have decided to cash out at lower prices before it eats into its profits etc.. its a market there are so many factors that influence its value. Maybe investors (not comic collectors) who were all hyped about MCU movies and realizing Phase 4 might not be as good as Phase 1-3 was and decided the Marvel MCU hype hit its peak and are cashing out. To those speculators or investors Avengers End Game is a End game (bad pun) lol

A typical investor with tons of money might be like ok Marvel is cool right now (2 years ago) what's the most expensive book or book that has the most hype "google Search" AF 15 comes up and Action Comics 1; Well Superman isn't hot right now so let me pick up some AF15 and are now selling before they think they might lose etc.. 

Good points. Soooooo many factors are likely the cause.

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4 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Four simple words:

Too far, too fast!!!  hm

Same words I was told when I purchased my copy about 8 years ago! :wink:

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Thanks for all the input thus far folks!

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4 hours ago, peewee22 said:
5 hours ago, NoMan said:

I don't think that's true. Member here named Glassman sold a 5.0 for 50k (about) during the peak of AF15 madness about two years ago. A 5.0 recently sold for 30k (about). Obviously the book is more important than the grade in the corner, does it have MC, but man that's 20 grand difference in two years. 

Who sold the 1st 5.0 book? Bob Storms did. Bob seems to get max sales and the most from a book. What did each 5.0 look like? We may not be apples to apples in this comparison.

Are you referring to the first CGC 5.0 graded copy selling for > $50K?

I thought Bob had sold Glassman's 5.0 graded copy sometime around the summer of 2017.  I believe the AF 15 sale that really jump started the market a couple years ago was the 5 AF 15 sales that CC had in their March 2017 auction which also included this CGC 5.0 copy that fetched $57K.  For some reason, this copy here seems to get the most airplay out of the 5 AF 15's that had sold in that particular auction:

ama12.630a.jpg

I am sure this CC auction result made it a whole lot easier for Bob to sell Glassman's 5.0 graded copy for somewhere in the low $50K's a few short months later.  (thumbsu

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Are you referring to the first CGC 5.0 graded copy selling for > $50K?

I thought Bob had sold Glassman's 5.0 graded copy sometime around the summer of 2017.  I believe the AF 15 sale that really jump started the market a couple years ago was the 5 AF 15 sales that CC had in their March 2017 auction which also included this CGC 5.0 copy that fetched $57K.  For some reason, this copy here seems to get the most airplay out of the 5 AF 15's that had sold in that particular auction:

ama12.630a.jpg

I am sure this CC auction result made it a whole lot easier for Bob to sell Glassman's 5.0 graded copy for somewhere in the low $50K's a few short months later.  (thumbsu

 

 

 

 

 

Very good memory, this is my recollection as well.

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Yup that summer of 2017 really took off for AF 15's, the start of things to come later. Pretty sure all of us were shocked. A few mentioned that it was upgradeable, guess it didnt upgrade. I believe it was in an older label? 

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6 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

well, I come back again to be throttled for the price my 5.0 received.

It's all a matter of timing.

Some copies set record prices and the next few sales will follow. If many copies come to market the buying pool gets shallow until they're absorbed.

Normal economic cycle.

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2 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

It's all a matter of timing.

Some copies set record prices and the next few sales will follow. If many copies come to market the buying pool gets shallow until they're absorbed.

Normal economic cycle.

Af15s have been good to me.  Net effect is in the positive margin for me.  buy low, sell high.  That being said, everyone come over to the smurfs club spirou 1071.  It’s a silver age book thats still low.  One can apply the buy low theory still. Smurfs a big pop culture phenomenon similar to spidey but of course on a lower scale 

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3 hours ago, Dark Knight said:

A few mentioned that it was upgradeable, guess it didnt upgrade

There was a lot of talk about this copy because a boardie held it raw and even tried to buy it raw. But I don't think anyone on here said it was upgradeable.

I did say that it may have looked like an upgrade candidate to the buyer, and hence the strong price or that someone simply wanted a spectacular copy for the grade and bid the heck out of it (just like PeeWee did when he bought his FF #1 years ago and set a record).

@peewee22 was this your copy?

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/fantastic-four-1-marvel-1961-cgc-fn-65-white-pages/a/825-45157.s

That copy went for DOUBLE what previous copies were going for in grade and then the market took off for that book as well simply because of that one sale. But it eventually slowed back down until the market caught up with that price point and has started to exceed it again.

Just like you're seeing now with AF #15.

The problem with the way the market is viewed by the casual observer is that copies that do upgrade (or copies that look extremely good for the eye appeal) set new benchmarks and then everyone just assumes that's the new bench mark for all copies.

 

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I don’t think Bob reports to gpa (I seem to recall him not). I don’t report to gpa (and I tend to sell a decent number of af15s, relatively speaking). Comiclink doesnt  report. Tons of convention and individual sales don’t get reported. Gpa is s wonderful tool for general trends, but it is inherently flawed , even on a book like af15, if folks are strictly using its data to interpret the market. 

 

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1 hour ago, G.A.tor said:

I don’t think Bob reports to gpa (I seem to recall him not). I don’t report to gpa (and I tend to sell a decent number of af15s, relatively speaking). Comiclink doesnt  report. Tons of convention and individual sales don’t get reported. Gpa is s wonderful tool for general trends, but it is inherently flawed , even on a book like af15, if folks are strictly using its data to interpret the market. 

 

And with a book as expensive as this I think more sales are happening off Ebay than on Ebay. I would never buy a 10k book online let alone sell one. People are paying cash for this book to save money in person and the sales data on GPA is not reflecting it.  I think far from home will get it a small sustainable rise. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

I don’t think Bob reports to gpa (I seem to recall him not). I don’t report to gpa (and I tend to sell a decent number of af15s, relatively speaking). Comiclink doesnt  report. Tons of convention and individual sales don’t get reported. Gpa is s wonderful tool for general trends, but it is inherently flawed , even on a book like af15, if folks are strictly using its data to interpret the market. 

 

I turned mine over to Bob  Aug 1st 2017 and he set the price at that time.  It had been the subject of conversation since the preceeding winter and in that winter, it was bringing about $28-31K. Keep the thought that I was offered 25K for all 950 comics which I turned down and went ultimately with Bob. It sold in Sept for an undisclosed albeit high price and the buyer got it on time payments. Susan did indeed presss the book prior to my putting it out there  and she very sucessfully removed some green gunk from the cover. The book is easy to recognize in that it has a chip on the upper right corner. It has no other flaws one would cringe at but no one thought the book would sustain an upgrade. Actually, I was relieved when it got the 5.0.  I sent that chip along with the book in an envelop when it was graded and it came back without the chip sadly. 

I am unaware of it being auctioned since and as suggested Bob doesn't seem to do auctions. He does let you make an offer and he doesn't do GPA.  I have the impression it was not a transaction in this country but that's not clear. I haven't spoken to him on the subject since Jan 2018.  He did have a 5.5 which he listed as having sold a few months later for 50K as I recall.  Right after that, a number came to auction and all were disappointing if one expected a surge. That did not nor has it yet happened.  It did seem to bring quite a number of them to market.  At this point , I don't follow the pricing beyond occasionally dropping in to see what things are being repeated constantly at the club.  My only regret was that I didn't care for it better over those fifty years. It was in a cardboard box for thirty five of them with just a mylar cover. The chip came off while I was holding it.  All my comics were bought on the news stand and many were well loved over the next fifteen years with the exception of a few keys all found in a schoolbus. Life was stupid simple. . It gave my son the down on a house. 

Edited by Glassman10

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10 hours ago, Dark Knight said:

Yup that summer of 2017 really took off for AF 15's, the start of things to come later. Pretty sure all of us were shocked. A few mentioned that it was upgradeable, guess it didnt upgrade. I believe it was in an older label? 

No the label was quite recent.

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you know it's been talked about once or twice before, but all jokes aside, bob storms really did get a great price for that af 15 glassman had.

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11 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Very good memory, this is my recollection as well.

While the back is not viewable, that copy is better looking than mine was. 

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10 hours ago, VintageComics said:

There was a lot of talk about this copy because a boardie held it raw and even tried to buy it raw. But I don't think anyone on here said it was upgradeable.

I did say that it may have looked like an upgrade candidate to the buyer, and hence the strong price or that someone simply wanted a spectacular copy for the grade and bid the heck out of it (just like PeeWee did when he bought his FF #1 years ago and set a record).

@peewee22 was this your copy?

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/superhero/fantastic-four-1-marvel-1961-cgc-fn-65-white-pages/a/825-45157.s

That copy went for DOUBLE what previous copies were going for in grade and then the market took off for that book as well simply because of that one sale. But it eventually slowed back down until the market caught up with that price point and has started to exceed it again.

Just like you're seeing now with AF #15.

The problem with the way the market is viewed by the casual observer is that copies that do upgrade (or copies that look extremely good for the eye appeal) set new benchmarks and then everyone just assumes that's the new bench mark for all copies.

 

@peewee22 was this your copy?

Yep. Busted it open (a 6.0) to enjoy and resubbed (with nothing done to it) and it came back a 7.0.

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Posted (edited)

so is the general consenses that AF15 took off (this last time ??) spring/summer 2017?

Also someone mentioned (Pee Wee) that AF15 has been on an upward trejectory since 1970. I've got a book about first comic con (1964 NYC) and reprints of sellers prices. Af15 was on the way up then.

Edited by NoMan

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1 hour ago, NoMan said:

so is the general consenses that AF15 took off (this last time ??) spring/summer 2017?

Also someone mentioned (Pee Wee) that AF15 has been on an upward trejectory since 1970. I've got a book about first comic con (1964 NYC) and reprints of sellers prices. Af15 was on the way up then.

My point being AF15 has always been in high demand, even BEFORE the movie and media hype. I can recall in the 70s collectors were always scrambling to the weekly pub CBG (Comic's Buyers Guide) to see if a new one popped up (what....no internet???). I used to make phone calls from the current Oversteet's "yellow pages" to ask dealers if they had one in stock...NEVER did.

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I think the first time I considered selling mine, being broke, it was at $80 dollars in overstreet.  That was around 1972.  I didn't do that either.  The next time I looked it was decades later and I think 3K was about right. 

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7 minutes ago, peewee22 said:
1 hour ago, NoMan said:

so is the general consenses that AF15 took off (this last time ??) spring/summer 2017?

Also someone mentioned (Pee Wee) that AF15 has been on an upward trejectory since 1970. I've got a book about first comic con (1964 NYC) and reprints of sellers prices. Af15 was on the way up then.

My point being AF15 has always been in high demand, even BEFORE the movie and media hype. I can recall in the 70s collectors were always scrambling to the weekly pub CBG (Comic's Buyers Guide) to see if a new one popped up (what....no internet???). I used to make phone calls from the current Oversteet's "yellow pages" to ask dealers if they had one in stock...NEVER did.

Like anything else, it has had its ebbs and flows as it has grinded upwards over time.

If you think back to the mid 80's time period where all of the Marvel keys moved absolutely nowhere for almost a full decade before Overstreet finally dropped the prices a tad on them towards the end of that time period.  I still remember being offered an aparently HG uber run of Spidey 2 - 10 towards the latter part of the 80's for the grand sum of $1,000 which turned out to be the biggest collecting mistake that I have made as the SA Marvel market started to take off a year after that after sitting in the deep freeze for almost a decade.  :cry:

Yes, longer term the trajectory has definitely been upwards even though there have been extended pauses and a few slight dips in there along the way.  (thumbsu

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