So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value? 8 8

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

Who sold the 1st 5.0 book? Bob Storms did. Bob seems to get max sales and the most from a book. What did each 5.0 look like? We may not be apples to apples in this comparison.

But the market has softened a little. An 8.0 sold for 261k  a year or so ago and recently one sold for 220k-ish.

.

It certainly does reflect well on Bob Storms. Something to keep in mind. I do understand your comment about the 5.0 comparisons. I can't find an image of the CC 5.0 that sold for 30k (about) last week for a side by side. But I do see a 7.5 up coming auction on CC. There just seems to be a avalanche of these books coming to market. Ok not an avalanche, but a very steady stream as in if I have cash I'll have no problem securing one. 

I agree there seems to be a softening of the market. Will it continue to soften? I think it will. Anyways with this softening of the market, member twmjr1's comment that af15 "hasn't gone down in value" (if he/she means $ value) and "never will" is vastly incorrect. 

Edited June 21, 2019 by NoMan

[Krismusic]

18 minutes ago, paul747 said:

Its a great Book but FF1 should and will be the king ! Top 5 Maybe de-facto silver age #1 for now, but its just not my favorite silver key.  I would and do own a AMS#1 and have always chosen that over AF 15 I sold my AF 15 a while back and not once have I looked back.  I think i will be able to pick it back up cheaper in the coming years. It went on way to fast paced of a rise to sustain. It also definitely suffered from dealer and flipper churn.

I think this might be a factor into answering the OP question as MCU might have had that much of an impact, but I am guessing that maybe a few realized it wont go up much more and some might have decided to cash out at lower prices before it eats into its profits etc.. its a market there are so many factors that influence its value. Maybe investors (not comic collectors) who were all hyped about MCU movies and realizing Phase 4 might not be as good as Phase 1-3 was and decided the Marvel MCU hype hit its peak and are cashing out. To those speculators or investors Avengers End Game is a End game (bad pun) . 

A typical investor with tons of money might be like ok Marvel is cool right now (2 years ago) what's the most expensive book or book that has the most hype "google Search" AF 15 comes up and Action Comics 1; Well Superman isn't hot right now so let me pick up some AF15 and are now selling before they think they might lose etc.. 

[peewee22]

4 minutes ago, NoMan said:

It certainly does reflect well on Bob Storms. Something to keep in mind. I do understand your comment about the 5.0 comparisons. I can't find an image of the CC 5.0 that sold for 30k (about) last week for a side by side. But I do see a 7.5 up coming auction on CC. There just seems to be a avalanche of these books coming to market. Ok not an avalanche, but a very steady stream as in if I have cash I'll have no problem securing one. 

I agree there seems to be a softening of the market. Will it continue to soften? I think it will. Anyways with this softening of the market, member twmjr1's comment that af15 "hasn't gone down in value" (if he/she means $ value) and "never will" is vastly incorrect. 

If investing in any book, do your homework like you're doing. Know the trends of the book and bid/buy smart.

I was lucky on my AF15. I had a personal bidder on the phone in the Aug 2011 HA auction and told him to "bid to win". I own a gorgeous 8.0 with a sweet history. I've rejected 2 nice offers over the years. 

[NoMan]

which brings me back to a conversation I was having with Vintage Comics yesterday that I left because I probably wasn't explaining my thoughts/question/example well enough for anybody to understand but my cat:

AF15 8.0 sells for record amount. Some folks think, "Hey I've got 7.0/7.5/8.0 and now seems the time to sell, cause, well the 8.0 just sold for record amount. Time to cash in. These books come to market and instead of record amounts they sell for less, because, the Deep Pocket Guy already spent his money on the 8.0. So, in my World's Greatest Comic Book Collector developing mind, I'm coming to the conclusion that a record sale doesn't guarantee continued record sales and perhaps right after a record sale is not the time to sell. 

But what do I know? Not much, I admit. 

Edited June 21, 2019 by NoMan

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

If investing in any book, do your homework like you're doing. Know the trends of the book and bid/buy smart.

I was lucky on my AF15. I had a personal bidder on the phone in the Aug 2011 HA auction and told him to "bid to win". I own a gorgeous 8.0 with a sweet history. I've rejected 2 nice offers over the years. 

Indeed you do. Is yours the book that had a one time owner who, unfortunately died in a vehicle crash? Is the  the fact you had two offers? They were lowballs? or?

Edited June 21, 2019 by NoMan

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, paul747 said:

Its a great Book but FF1 should and will be the king ! Top 5 Maybe de-facto silver age #1 for now, but its just not my favorite silver key.  I would and do own a AMS#1 and have always chosen that over AF 15 I sold my AF 15 a while back and not once have I looked back.  I think i will be able to pick it back up cheaper in the coming years. It went on way to fast paced of a rise to sustain. It also definitely suffered from dealer and flipper churn.

I also believe this. Don't know who's doing the flipping, but I agree with it's gonna continue to soften. Good look with FF1

[peewee22]

4 minutes ago, NoMan said:

Indeed you do. Is yours the book that had a one time owner who, unfortunately died in a vehicle crash? Is the  the fact you had two offers? They were lowballs? or?

Yeah that is the book.

Not lowball. I'm crazy for not acceptng, lol. Just kidding, I'm happy I kept mine.

 

 

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

Yeah that is the book.

Not lowball. I'm crazy for not acceptng, lol. Just kidding, I'm happy I kept mine.

 

 

If your's is the 8.0 sold in Aug 2011, you have gotten some exceptional offers. Good for you, my man. 

Edited June 21, 2019 by NoMan

[Krismusic]

well I hope it trends down for awhile more maybe then I can get a low grade 2.5 copy for less than 10K 

[NoMan]

I genuinely miss the Spidey Will Never Die Guy.

[Jeffro.]

1 hour ago, NoMan said:

I'm interested in why the big Spiderman books (AF15, AM 1) shoot up when it's not motivated by cinema? (Look at me sounding all fancy) I mean there's Spidey movies every 23 minutes. So the run up of two or three years ago wasn't MCU related. So it's the FOMO. But what triggers this? What triggers that "all the sheep running into the barn" gif?

Comic books rose in value long before there were modern movies about the characters. 

[VintageComics]

5 hours ago, KEY ISSUES Comics said:

So, why has AF #15 continued to drop In value in all grades the past year?

I've been following this book quite closely on GPA for years, as do many folks I'm sure. It's not not unusual to see seasonal price variations--especially between Christmas and tax season--only to see it pick up steam again during con season. But it's not happening this year. It just keeps trending downwards, while other books continue to rise. Has the book FINALLY plateaued? Regardless, what do you think is causing this? 

Cheers!

Because no rise is straight up.

The book did the same thing about 11 years ago when it surged and pulled back.

But specifically, I already explained why this book surged 2 years ago but nobody listened.

Guys like @Jaydogrules tried to argue with meaningless points but time does prove all things.

As I said 2 years ago, I suspected that all of the copies that sold for record prices were potentially upgradeable copies and so they sold for outlier prices.

The market will only sustain fair market value and so once those copies upgraded and came back to market, the price point dropped.

But the book hasn't bottomed out. It continues to rise. It just corrected as all markets do. If you plot prices on a graph and draw a line through the recorded prices, it's still rising.

It's normal market dynamics.

If you don't see that, your timeline is too small for proper perspective.

[peewee22]

44 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Because no rise is straight up.

The book did the same thing about 11 years ago when it surged and pulled back.

But specifically, I already explained why this book surged 2 years ago but nobody listened.

Guys like @Jaydogrules tried to argue with meaningless points but time does prove all things.

As I said 2 years ago, I suspected that all of the copies that sold for record prices were potentially upgradeable copies and so they sold for outlier prices.

The market will only sustain fair market value and so once those copies upgraded and came back to market, the price point dropped.

But the book hasn't bottomed out. It continues to rise. It just corrected as all markets do. If you plot prices on a graph and draw a line through the recorded prices, it's still rising.

It's normal market dynamics.

If you don't see that, your timeline is too small for proper perspective.

You can plot from 1970 to 2019 and it's the same trend....upward (rising)... 

[Howling Mad]

5 hours ago, aardvark88 said:

Exactly. AF #15 hit a plateau last year. Better $ value can be gained in other vintage comics like ASM #1, FF #1, 4, 5, Batman #1, Showcase #4, Avengers #1 comparatively.

Showcase #4 isn't moving at the moment. If anything it's starting to retreat.

[Glassman10]

3 hours ago, NoMan said:

I don't think that's true. Member here named Glassman sold a 5.0 for 50k (about) during the peak of AF15 madness about two years ago. A 5.0 recently sold for 30k (about). Obviously the book is more important than the grade in the corner, does it have MC or not? , but man that's 20 grand downturn in two years. I'd be weary of just buying an AF15 in 2019 cause it's a sure thing.

well, I come back again to be throttled for the price my 5.0 received. I'm not at all sure whether it was the sales price or the fact that Storms pulled that off. Apparently, I'm not supposed to mention it. Either way I still feel I get the brunt of the reaction from what is clearly a club that doesn't really want differences of opinions on that sale. 

What I do know is that Bob works hard for his milk and cookies.  He sold the book way above what I thought it could bring.  He didn't use auctions. He would have preferred I never mention the sales price. There was also a 5.5 that sold below what he got for my comic at the time.  I would point out that at that time, the price seemed to bring around 35K at a max but Bob thought differently, so, maybe it hasn't collapsed but I was an outlier.  Either way I cerainly learned to not offend the gods of the fan club. . However, over the last two years since I sold mine for that horrible unmentionable price that no other dealer could get, things have failed to improve while my Mastercard stock has been on an absolute tear.  Despite all of the adulations for the art and whatever, the converation remains the same, "Did it go up today?". That's the conversation. 

I suspect it eventually will go up. It's hard to imagine it going much further down than the average where it was when Bob sold mine.  Apparently I got lucky.  After all, I was offered $25K for my entire collection of 950 books, all from the same period. Getting lucky seems to earn one a permanent place in ridicule by the masters of this little universe. Candidly, I'm glad that;' over.  I can get a lot more enjoment out of Tom Brent and his flying nurses. 

So, Bob, Thanks again. I note you are the only one sending me emails about what new is for sale on a daily basis.  Some of these people get really jealous. 

[peewee22]

26 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

well, I come back again to be throttled for the price my 5.0 received. I'm not at all sure whether it was the sales price or the fact that Storms pulled that off. Apparently, I'm not supposed to mention it. Either way I still feel I get the brunt of the reaction from what is clearly a club that doesn't really want differences of opinions on that sale. 

What I do know is that Bob works hard for his milk and cookies.  He sold the book way above what I thought it could bring.  He didn't use auctions. He would have preferred I never mention the sales price. There was also a 5.5 that sold below what he got for my comic at the time.  I would point out that at that time, the price seemed to bring around 35K at a max but Bob thought differently, so, maybe it hasn't collapsed but I was an outlier.  Either way I cerainly learned to not offend the gods of the fan club. . However, over the last two years since I sold mine for that horrible unmentionable price that no other dealer could get, things have failed to improve while my Mastercard stock has been on an absolute tear.  Despite all of the adulations for the art and whatever, the converation remains the same, "Did it go up today?". That's the conversation. 

I suspect it eventually will go up. It's hard to imagine it going much further down than the average where it was when Bob sold mine.  Apparently I got lucky.  After all, I was offered $25K for my entire collection of 950 books, all from the same period. Getting lucky seems to earn one a permanent place in ridicule by the masters of this little universe. Candidly, I'm glad that;' over.  I can get a lot more enjoment out of Tom Brent and his flying nurses. 

So, Bob, Thanks again. I note you are the only one sending me emails about what new is for sale on a daily basis.  Some of these people get really jealous. 

I get Bob's daily additions via email. About 2am every night.  

[KEY ISSUES Comics]

6 hours ago, Jeffro™ said:

Given that AF 15 is the # 1 key in the silver age, it's not difficult to understand why it's surged in value. AF 15 doesn't need any external stimuli beyond that fact. Having said that, an adjustment if even only a small one is long overdue on this book. I think peewee is correct. A year from now we'll be discussing yet another upward trend. 

I sure hope so, as someone who is thinking of selling his copy in the next 5 or so years.

[KEY ISSUES Comics]

5 hours ago, NoMan said:

across all grades?

Pretty much all grades that have sold multiple copies during the last 12 months have demonstrated a cooling off, according to GPA data. But I presume you're referring to the likelihood of all grades showing growth again in a year or so, correct? I hope that's the case, but who knows. The 9.0+ copies will likely continue to set new highs I would think.

[KEY ISSUES Comics]

4 hours ago, twmjr1 said:

Simple: It hasn't. And it never will over time. "Now" is always a good time to buy this book in any grade, basically. If you want one and procrastinate you'll regret it later. It will cost more.

That's been my thought since I started shopping for one about 8 years ago, as data seemed to support constant growth, but the last 4-6 months have shown a sudden change in price trajectory.

[lou_fine]

7 hours ago, KEY ISSUES Comics said:

Regardless, what do you think is causing this? 

Four simple words:

Too far, too fast!!!