So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?
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11 hours ago, Gruson said:

 

One would think that if someone owns AF15, they would also want TOS39, X-men 1, Hulk 1, and FF1 in their collection too. 

I could easily see those books getting close to the same value as AF15.  

Why?  I want all those other keys but don’t see any reason why any those getting close to the same value as Af15.  

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If you have a couple of people who sell low because they don't have much into the book will impact the GPA but it will absolutely bounce back.

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15 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

Tta27 is considerably scarcer than hulk 1, and st110 likely on par too

but the word “rare” should not be associated with any marvel key I wouldn’t think?

I guess it's all relative ...

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42 minutes ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I guess it's all relative ...

Collectors use the term rare as a "hard to find" synonym. By Overstreet definition, rare and scarce refer to the book numbers out there. If I recall less than 10 copies is scarce and less than 25 is rare. We know there are no SA keys in these categories to my knowledge.

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8 hours ago, peewee22 said:

Collectors use the term rare as a "hard to find" synonym. By Overstreet definition, rare and scarce refer to the book numbers out there. If I recall less than 10 copies is scarce and less than 25 is rare. We know there are no SA keys in these categories to my knowledge.

You've actually got it backwards since "rare" is considered to be even harder to find than "scarce".  :gossip:

The actual Overstreet definition of these 2 terms from this year's edition of the guide are as follows:

Rare is defined as "10 - 20 copies estimated to exist", while scarce is defined as "20 - 100 copies estimated to exist".  (thumbsu

Which then begs the question:  What is the term for less than 10 copies estimated to exist?  hm

 

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6 hours ago, lou_fine said:

You've actually got it backwards since "rare" is considered to be even harder to find than "scarce".  :gossip:

The actual Overstreet definition of these 2 terms from this year's edition of the guide are as follows:

Rare is defined as "10 - 20 copies estimated to exist", while scarce is defined as "20 - 100 copies estimated to exist".  (thumbsu

Which then begs the question:  What is the term for less than 10 copies estimated to exist?  hm

 

Unicorn-y?

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Posted (edited)

As the grade increases, the term "rare" becomes significant, as in 8.5- 9.0 grading . As to the overall run, AF 15 is simply not a rare book or even close. It's simply a desired book. I think the marketability of the comic spiked in 2017 and then fell back to where it was as a number of comics mid grade rushed to market glutting it. I don't view that as losing value. I don't see a continuing downslide. It is clear that the volume of AF15's in 4.5 grade and lower is more than ample. If 5.0's  no chipping can pull 50K regularly, that's no decrease. Is that happening?  Well worn ones aren't doing that taking you back to "Buy the book, not the grade". 

Edited by Glassman10

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Exactly. There are more AF15s out there than a lot of other mega-keys, which was I said I could see TOS39, X-men 1, Hulk. 1, FF1, etc closing the gap over time.  

More collectors are into the hobby now because of the movies and supply is drying up.  

AF15 will always be at the top though.

 

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4 hours ago, Gruson said:

More collectors are into the hobby now because of the movies and supply is drying up.  

I really seriously don't think any of the movie audiences are leaving the theatres and going onto the comic auction sites to drop 5-figure or 6-figure dollar bids onto the Marvel keys. :screwy:

I think more comic book speculators and investors are entering into the comic book market hoping to make a fast buck on the flip.  hm

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On 8/26/2019 at 2:53 PM, peewee22 said:

Collectors use the term rare as a "hard to find" synonym. By Overstreet definition, rare and scarce refer to the book numbers out there. If I recall less than 10 copies is scarce and less than 25 is rare. We know there are no SA keys in these categories to my knowledge.

Marvelmans, if you count them as silver.

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21 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I really seriously don't think any of the movie audiences are leaving the theatres and going onto the comic auction sites to drop 5-figure or 6-figure dollar bids onto the Marvel keys. :screwy:

I think more comic book speculators and investors are entering into the comic book market hoping to make a fast buck on the flip.  hm

No kidding. If someone else talks about how the MCU is keeping sales of 5-figure or 6-figure keys going I'm going to do something that will land me in jail. 

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Posted (edited)

Of course the MCU is helping drive sales.  Look at DC comics...are they going up?  Not really...and their films have sucked except for Aquaman. 

Not saying that’s the only reason prices are climbing but it sure is helping IMO. 

Another example, Black Knight comics all just jumped up over 100% because MCU.  

Edited by Gruson

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Posted (edited)

Announcements by MCU basically give collector's/speculator's something new to do since it quickly gets old after one movie announcement to find something to make money on.  No offense but the MCU movie announcement game has been going on since the Blade movie first got announced.   Today you get a new pop because of a relaunch.  Silver Surfer has already appeared in a FF movie yet the idea that he does again now causes FF #48/SS #1 to spike?  Didn't Electro already appear in a movie,  yet I'm still getting asked about that book.  How many Spider-man versions are there?  Is it all just the movie's or is it the idea that when the characters are on the big screen it reinforces the emotional attachment we had to the books and gets us remembering the good ole days.  Movie books inject life into titles that frankly a lot of collectors didn't care about.  When SME #15 goes crazy I suddenly start getting orders for the villains,  and then some run collector's start buying again.  It gives smaller dealers more wall books.  Look at a wall display today and ask yourself would half of those books been on the wall 10 years ago?

The other thing to ask yourself is "Am I drinking the kool-aid".  Try to take the emotional attachment of $$$$ in your eyes and really look at the book that suddenly spiked 100%.  Great story?  Great art?  Great stories and Great art would have been known since the book came out.  Moon Knight doesn't exactly light it up for me but hey if you want to chase WWBN #32 because he is hot go for it.  What great villain does he battle?  Besides the costume and battling Werewolf by night who else is going to keep your eyes glued to a movie screen if one gets made?  I can see Silver Surfer capturing my attention but some of these other guys are good for cameo's.  

 

Edited by blazingbob

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well, I kind of like "Power Pooch" battling the vacuums from outer  space in the comic strip "Get Fuzzy". I don't see a future movie series coming from it sadly.  Otherwise, people just have strange ways of spending their money. In the bulk of Africa, most people own the clothes on their backs, nothing more. Probably not a good place to do a comic con. 

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1 hour ago, blazingbob said:

No offense but the MCU movie announcement game has been going on since the Blade movie first got announced.   Today you get a new pop because of a relaunch. 

So Bob, does this mean you have your twitching finger ready to bid some more in a few short hours from now since this Tomb of Dracula 10 here is still sitting at the bargain basement price of only $74,000:

RAD5D93820151223_23446.jpg

:takeit:  :screwy:

 

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4 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

So Bob, does this mean you have your twitching finger ready to bid some more in a few short hours from now since this Tomb of Dracula 10 here is still sitting at the bargain basement price of only $74,000:

RAD5D93820151223_23446.jpg

:takeit:  :screwy:

 

Oh yeah,  I'm loaded on this one

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Posted (edited)
On 8/27/2019 at 10:30 AM, lou_fine said:

I really seriously don't think any of the movie audiences are leaving the theatres and going onto the comic auction sites to drop 5-figure or 6-figure dollar bids onto the Marvel keys:screwy:

 

This is said fairly often here and it always sounds as counter-intuitive as it would be to say "I don't see anybody being a huge baseball fan and then deciding to buy expensive baseball cards after they grow up and make a lot of spare money".   Or "I don't see anybody liking cars and going on to invest in vintage cars."     "I don't see somebody paying big money for a first edition book just because they loved the book."    

I could go on.  "You think film fans might pay big money for film posters or props?   What are you smoking?"   

Virtually everything that's collectible... everything... is driven in some part by people who came to love something about the collectible in one form or another.  For many Spider-man collectors their first exposure to Spider-man was a cartoon.    And many speculators are actually fans as well, because it's more fun to speculate in something you like.   But all that would seem to me to be as obvious as can be.   So this absolutism which more than a few people have, that collectors never begin collecting for any reason other than the reasons they began, despite all evidence to the contrary, makes me shake my head.

 

 

Edited by bluechip

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10 hours ago, blazingbob said:
10 hours ago, lou_fine said:

So Bob, does this mean you have your twitching finger ready to bid some more in a few short hours from now since this Tomb of Dracula 10 here is still sitting at the bargain basement price of only $74,000:

RAD5D93820151223_23446.jpg

:takeit:  :screwy:

 

Oh yeah,  I'm loaded on this one

Bob;

I hope you was indeed all locked and loaded in on this one here and managed to snap it up for a measly $85 big ones.  :wishluck:

Bad news for me though, as I was all ready to put in my lucky number of $88,888 but ended up falling asleep waiting for this lot to come around.  zzz   :facepalm:   lol

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As a huge fan of the MCU, I ignore all spoilers until after I see the movie.  Then I go back and read all the leaks to see how many were true.  FF48 and IH181 all spiked due to rumors of their characters appearing in post credit scenes for the latest Avengers films.  I had no idea at time what was spiking the prices, but I'm sure that was it.

Now I'm sure a lot of people were aware the Sony/Marvel deal for Spidey was over after FFH and a renewal didn't appear to be moving in the right direction - and I'm sure this was leaked all over the internet.  I'm speculating now that has led to the decline in price on AF15 (I suppose the reverse/opposite of hype).  Very weak prices in the recent CL auctions.  A chip free 4.0 went for under 24K.  2 years ago a "high end" 3.0 (if there is such a thing) went for that price.  Then you could get 3.5 chip free for 24K or less.  Now 4.0 - what's next? 

A 5.0 with some chipping went for $34K.  I would consider a better looking chipped book - as it didn't look all jagged and raggedy like some do.

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As I recall, when I found my AF15 back in 1967, it had a street value then of about $80 dollars which was a month's rent. So, even back in '67 it was sought after. It certainly wasn't movies.  Actually, that was well before that Action#1 sold for such a remarkable price.  I turned down buying a JIM83 for under $75.00 around that time and instead got 84-125 for a song. 

I recall a gallery owner in Santa Fe explaining to me that everyone had a unit value. That was the amount they could spend without causing a conversation. The conversation in the art business was usually a deal killer. Forest said everyone had this value be it five Dollars, or  twenty thousand dollars but they all had it. He then said he only wanted people with a twenty thousand dollar unit value in his gallery. That was 1973. 

I think it's true of comics or cards, whatever. There are people out there with unit values so high, they're hard to imagine. If you can spend $100K on a comic, as some arab Princes do, and not notice it, you've got something going. For most, they buy stuff like this and hope to bump the investment by a few thousand bucks and that's their nut. As long as there are new people entering the market, expect this to continue with nothing dropping in perceived value but maybe not advancing much either. 

I get Bob Storm's inbox every other day and see where the 6.0 AF15 is offered at $60K , a nice book but if one assumes a discount to sell it, it's pretty static compared to 2017 in my mind. That being said, I would look to a known price if I was selling again rather than to trust a marginal uptick to an auction with all of its add-ons at the same time one might really lose some money.. 

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