Forbes article 2 2

[bluechip]

20 hours ago, exitmusicblue said:

The medium will always evolve.  If someone could ever dig up the first OA in which Mick appeared (with provenance), man...

Anyhow, many other points made, agree to disagree -- happy Sunday y'all !

The first OA of Mickey does exist.  It's the storyboard for "Plane Crazy".  

[bluechip]

On 6/30/2019 at 2:43 AM, Rick2you2 said:

There may be nostalgia for buying comics, or art, but the specific artists who drew issue xyz of some long cancelled comic? How much nostalgia is there for all those old school collectors of marbles? Have you seen how the prices of antique furniture has slumped over the past 20 years? Or collectible crystal?

This feels like maybe you're being contrary for its own sake.   Also, rumor has it Disney's streaming service will include a series about collectible crystal that solves crimes.

[Rick2you2]

2 hours ago, bluechip said:

This feels like maybe you're being contrary for its own sake.   Also, rumor has it Disney's streaming service will include a series about collectible crystal that solves crimes.

No, but I do appear to be wrong. My kids are grown and were never enamored with Mickey. I mostly remember him from Fantasia and some fairly tame cartoons. 

[Rick2you2]

9 hours ago, Peter L said:

 

As Pete says, Mickey Mouse is huge.  Mickey and the Roaster Racers and the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse are must see tv for kids.  (As an aside they are not for adults but they are really well done with a new song every episode.  Disney hires top notch talent for this stuff.  It will date well, unlike let's say The Superfriends from the 1980s.)  New toys are coming out all the time in different formats like lego or Mickey's Roadster racecars and kids still want these.   If you visit California Adventure, you will see the packed lines for the Disney Jr. Dance party where all the kids want to dance with Mickey and Minnie, or the long lines of kids who want to take their pictures with Mickey and Minnie and the gang at the parks.  All of these little kids know who these characters are and love them.  

Disney absolutely knows what they are doing.  

Netflix has a few Lego Avengers short films and they are so popular and entertaining for kids, it is clear how Disney will continue to make these characters popular for future generations, even without comic books.  It's also important to note that at the Guardians of the Galaxy Ride store, and the Star Wars Launch Bay at Disneyland where you checked in for Galaxy's Edge, they have racks of comics of Marvel and Star Wars prominently displayed along with other merchandise.   The new Marvel land is in the middle of construction at California Adventure now, but there are long waits to get photos with Spider-man, Loki, and the Black Panther there already.  Little kids were furiously chasing after the Avengers Endgame toys at McDonalds even though they couldn't see the movies.  These characters are going to be around for long past our lifetimes.    

 

 

 

Just out of curiosity, is he still sanitized and dull, or did they give him some character besides Everyman?

[thethedew]

2 hours ago, Peter L said:

I read a story on 13th Dimension website about Steve Englehart and the influential changes he made on Batman.  I think most including me view the four changes he made to the character as a positive.  But the first change he listed was "1) Make the Batman an adult, not a child's image of what an adult [is]."  I think this is what increased the difficulty of the barrier of entry for young comic readers more than anything.  

 

A great observation.

[Peter L]

3 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

Just out of curiosity, is he still sanitized and dull, or did they give him some character besides Everyman?

I haven't seen all the episodes but my impression is that Mickey is the everyman hero straightman who all the colorful characters bounce off of and the kids can identify with his struggles.  His character fits the age of the audience.  

[Rick2you2]

7 hours ago, Peter L said:

I haven't seen all the episodes but my impression is that Mickey is the everyman hero straightman who all the colorful characters bounce off of and the kids can identify with his struggles.  His character fits the age of the audience.  

I was more of a Warner Bros. fan growing up. Bugs.

Let me add, however, that my eldest son was a big fan of Rocco’s Modern Life when he was growing up. A while ago, I offered to buy him the cover of a comic of the show which came up for auction. He had zero interest in it; his response being I was the one who liked comics, not him. So the basic point remains: popularity on TV or in movies may not translate to a healthy future for OA.

Edited July 2, 2019 by Rick2you2

[vodou]

47 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

So the basic point remains: popularity on TV or in movies may not translate to a healthy future for OA.

There's this and also if the audience we're referencing is broadly financially challenged (lack of disposable income) then "free" will trump anything "with a price" and certainly anything with a "high price". Just like there's no need to pay for porn these days, there's no need to pay for anything character-related...unless you just have to have something very specific (that cover, pages from that story). I maintain that need for specificity is much stronger among Gen-X and prior then Millennial and beyond. These youngstahs (lol)...if it's not on their phone...it might as well not exist

[Rick2you2]

44 minutes ago, vodou said:

There's this and also if the audience we're referencing is broadly financially challenged (lack of disposable income) then "free" will trump anything "with a price" and certainly anything with a "high price". Just like there's no need to pay for porn these days, there's no need to pay for anything character-related...unless you just have to have something very specific (that cover, pages from that story). I maintain that need for specificity is much stronger among Gen-X and prior then Millennial and beyond. These youngstahs (lol)...if it's not on their phone...it might as well not exist

These youngsters really don't seem too interested in ownership of things, so much as having experiences. But frankly, when I was much younger, neither did I (except maybe a liberated pair of panties). 

[Bronty]

5 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

These youngsters really don't seem too interested in ownership of things, so much as having experiences. But frankly, when I was much younger, neither did I (except maybe a liberated pair of panties). 

I love that you pointed that out.   

So many people talk about this generation as not being interested in owning things but I think that’s a crock.   You don’t change human nature fundamentally.

Consider the baby boom.   In the 1960s you had this massive wave of teenagers coming up.  So they were then about the same age as this generation.  And the issues that interest teenagers more so, broadly speaking , than adults, were reflected in that time.   Idealism, the birth of environmentalism, peace, love.

In The 1970s they are now twenty somethings and there’s more of a sex / drugs / rock n roll vibe to the decade because 23 year olds want to party.    

80s comes around and they are 30 somethings and the decade is accentuated with materialism and greed and so on.     35 year olds don’t want to be poor anymore!   

In other words, give this generation 15 years and they will be plenty interested in material goods over experiences.   Those goods may not be comic books, but they ‘I just want experiences I can post on instagram’ will become ‘I want stuff and lots of it.’ (and they’ll probably post it on instagram).

Edited July 2, 2019 by Bronty

[delekkerste]

13 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I love that you pointed that out.   

So many people talk about this generation as not being interested in owning things but I think that’s a crock.   You don’t change human nature fundamentally.

Consider the baby boom.   In the 1960s you had this massive wave of teenagers coming up.  So they were then about the same age as this generation.  And the issues that interest teenagers more so, broadly speaking , than adults, were reflected in that time.   Idealism, the birth of environmentalism, peace, love.

In The 1970s they are now twenty somethings and there’s more of a sex / drugs / rock n roll vibe to the decade because 23 year olds want to party.    

80s comes around and they are 30 somethings and the decade is accentuated with materialism and greed and so on.     35 year olds don’t want to be poor anymore!   

In other words, give this generation 15 years and they will be plenty interested in material goods over experiences.   Those goods may not be comic books, but they ‘I just want experiences I can post on instagram’ will become ‘I want stuff and lots of it.’ (and they’ll probably post it on instagram).

I think the truth is somewhere in-between.  They will probably be more interested in material goods than they are now, but, less than previous generations were.  Part of that is because of economic realities, part of that is changing social norms, part of that is changing technology.  The platforms may change, but, social media isn't going away, so, getting a selfie while doing something cool is both cheaper and gets more attention than buying most nice things.  Also, a lot more things are part of the digital, sharing and/or renting economies these days - will the younger generations, in the aggregate, have the resources or even feel the need to acquire as many physical books, cash, clothes, cars, homes, etc. as previous generations?  Probably not.  

I also think that the disposition to collect/hoard, whether genetic or otherwise, is way overhyped.  All you have to look at other cultures where space and/or money is in scarce supply and you don't see people building out collections of thousands of comics or hundreds of pieces of art; clearly any such genetic imperative quickly takes a back seat to culture and environment.  Not to mention, there's no reason to believe that any genetic compulsion to collect can't/won't manifest itself differently in the modern world (e.g., collecting MP3s, collecting likes on Facebook, etc.)  

[Bronty]

7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I think the truth is somewhere in-between.  They will probably be more interested in material goods than they are now, but, less than previous generations were.  Part of that is because of economic realities, part of that is changing social norms, part of that is changing technology.  The platforms may change, but, social media isn't going away, so, getting a selfie while doing something cool is both cheaper and gets more attention than buying most nice things.  Also, a lot more things are part of the digital, sharing and/or renting economies these days - will the younger generations, in the aggregate, have the resources or even feel the need to acquire as many physical books, cash, clothes, cars, homes, etc. as previous generations?  Probably not.  

I also think that the disposition to collect/hoard, whether genetic or otherwise, is way overhyped.  All you have to look at other cultures where space and/or money is in scarce supply and you don't see people building out collections of thousands of comics or hundreds of pieces of art; clearly any such genetic imperative quickly takes a back seat to culture and environment.  Not to mention, there's no reason to believe that any genetic compulsion to collect can't/won't manifest itself differently in the modern world (e.g., collecting MP3s, collecting likes on Facebook, etc.)  

Good thoughts.   THe questions you raised - will this generation once grown want as many:

Books?  No

Cash?  oh yes.

Clothes?   Even more so than previous generations IMO.   Need to be wearing something new in that selfie pic you talk about.

Cars?   about the same

Homes?   Yes

 

 

[delekkerste]

21 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Good thoughts.   THe questions you raised - will this generation once grown want as many:

Books?  No

Cash?  oh yes.

Clothes?   Even more so than previous generations IMO.   Need to be wearing something new in that selfie pic you talk about.

Cars?   about the same

Homes?   Yes

 

 

Disagree totally. 

I was talking about physical cash.  They clearly have a preference for digital apps.  But, beyond that, I do think that there is a backlash against material ambition and greed that isn't going to go away, at least not to the extent you seem to think.  If you think it's just a temporary phase like we saw with the '60s generation when they were young, I think you're missing a tectonic shift in social norms.  Some of the political polling is showing attitudes among the young that we've never seen before. 

Clothes are now part of the sharing economy!  And the huge pressure that apparel retailers are under would seem to undermine your thesis; even luxury brands have been feeling the pinch. 

Cars?  No way.  Not with Uber and Lyft and Zipcar and many people rejecting anything carbon burning out of image considerations.  We've already reached peak car in the West. More younger people aren't even bothering to get drivers licenses. 

Homes?  Also no way.  Real estate is a religion among Baby Boomers and many Gen Xers.  Millennials will neither have the resources nor the interest in buying as many homes as their parents and grandparents, especially not with AirBnb and other sharing options around these days.  The best that can be said is that fewer young people will be content to live in their parents' basements and that more of them will eventually become homeowners. 

Edited July 2, 2019 by delekkerste

[exitmusicblue]

5 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Good thoughts.   THe questions you raised - will this generation once grown want as many:

Books?  No

Cash?  oh yes.

Clothes?   Even more so than previous generations IMO.   Need to be wearing something new in that selfie pic you talk about.

Cars?   about the same

Homes?   Yes

 

 

This is also an important point.  If comics -> cash?

Judging from interest in crypto prices, the up and coming generation is as speculative as any that came before it.  I guarantee many AF15s and the like are solely or largely speculative instruments for many a "collector," and this ain't changing.  Comics are the accessible-and-fun investment medium.  Long ago earned their stripes in this sense.

Of course, most will fall by the wayside.  But it's the same in any collectibles market.

[delekkerste]

2 minutes ago, exitmusicblue said:

Judging from interest in crypto prices, the up and coming generation is as speculative as any that came before it.  

That's because they've been dealt such a bad hand and are desperate to improve their lot.  I think they're coming from a very different place than previous generations. 

[exitmusicblue]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

That's because they've been dealt such a bad hand and are desperate to improve their lot.  I think they're coming from a very different place than previous generations. 

Yup... regardless, many are cutting their teeth on comics as we speak.  As someone who's also collected sports cards, I can say comics as a collectibles market = far superior, and the youngbloods ain't dumb about it.

Are many mostly servicing older nostalgic generations?  For sure.  But once you're really vested in something, the instinct is to want it to keep going as satisfaction and pride develop.  Many a speculator will become a steward thanks to the ongoing boom.

[delekkerste]

1 minute ago, exitmusicblue said:

Are many mostly servicing older nostalgic generations?  For sure.  But once you're really vested in something, the instinct is to want it to keep going as satisfaction and pride develop.  Many a speculator will become a steward thanks to the ongoing boom.

What happens if/when it stops booming? Won't they just move on to the next hot thing?  

Edited July 2, 2019 by delekkerste

[Bronty]

7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Disagree totally. 

I was talking about physical cash.  They clearly have a preference for digital.  And I do think that there is a backlash against material ambition and greed that isn't going to go away.  If you think it's just a temporary phase like we saw with the '60s generation when they were young, I think you're missing a tectonic shift in social norms.  Some of the political polling is showing attitudes among the young that we've never seen before. 

Clothes are now part of the sharing economy.  And the huge pressure that apparel retailers are under would seem to undermine your thesis. 

Cars?  No way.  Not with Uber and Lyft and Zipcar and many people rejecting anything carbon burning out of image considerations.  We've already reached peak car in the West. More younger people aren't even bothering to get drivers licenses. 

Homes?  Also no way.  Real estate is a religion among Baby Boomers and many Gen Xers.  Millennials will neither have the resources nor the interest in buying as many homes as their parents and grandparents, especially not with AirBnb and other sharing options around these days.  The best that can be said is that fewer young people will be content to live in their parents' basements and that more of them will eventually become homeowners. 

If you meant physical cash, then I agree, but I'm talking about the drive for wealth at a certain age not the form of it.  

I don't think cars are going away.   Maybe in NYC where you live its easy to get around on uber but there are huge swaths of North America where an adult needs a car, full stop.    Carbon burning is a separate issue (electric cars are still cars).  

As for homes, the average number of homes owned will probably decline somewhat, I agree.    I don't think as many people will have vacation homes / summer homes / cabins.   They will rent short term accomodation over committing to go to the same spot every year for vacation.   But at the end of the everyone is still going to want at least that first home. 

[exitmusicblue]

8 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

What happens if/when it stops booming?  

I think we're pretty much set.  : )  As long as the entertainment powers that be don't F up massively.

30 years from now, if a young Spidey lover is asked if s/he would rather own a toy or coffee mug or blanket or what have you from Disneyland with his likeness, or a key comic, the answer should be the same 9 times out of 10 -- comic book, baby.*

 

*Of course, it's important that the young 'un know why the key is a key.  If it were a 50-cent bin'er instead, hell I'd go for the Spidey lego or video game.   Fortunately, humans are curious.

Edited July 2, 2019 by exitmusicblue

[delekkerste]

9 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I don't think cars are going away.   Maybe in NYC where you live its easy to get around on uber but there are huge swaths of North America where an adult needs a car, full stop.    Carbon burning is a separate issue (electric cars are still cars).  

I don't believe that people owning cars are going away either, BUT, there are a hell of a lot of smart people who do. 

In any case, annual car sales in the U.S. have not gotten back to the peak levels seen in the mid-80s and again in the late '90s to mid 2000s.  And that's despite it never being easier to move units due to low interest rates, favorable lease terms, fleet sales, securitization, etc. It's already happening...

In any case, we aren't talking about any of this stuff going away completely - we're talking about what happens at the margin.  And, at the margin, the global auto industry is going to go into secular contraction mode. Same with multiple home ownership and the ownership of a lot of physical things.  

Edited July 2, 2019 by delekkerste