Key Comics as Collectible History, e.g. Gatsby 1st Edition, Napoleon's Letters 0

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, FSF said:

Sounds like a keeper.  But make sure that the "financial guy" isn't sticking you in high load funds or annuity products without a clear understanding on your part.  For my part, I'm with Warren Buffet, virtually everyone should just stick the money in a diversified index fund and call it a day but a lot of people do need hand holding through the process so I do see value for some, as long as they are paying close attention and their money is in a well known institution, or two, or three.

My accountant says, "Whoever your financial guy is, keep him."  I donna. We made some money this month. I don't sell my comics, so I have no evidence that I could make money, which I probably could not. 

I really have no idea what's going on. Maybe my wife has a thing for him.

Edited July 7, 2019 by NoMan

[delekkerste]

On 7/5/2019 at 6:02 PM, NoMan said:

Did you mention your opinion on the notion of "I'll cash out in 30 years" in regards to the big keys: AC 1, Tec 27, etc? I half read your post and half listened to my wife talk about her friend in prison that witnessed someone getting killed by having a pen shoved in their ear so you may have covered it. Sorry. I'm heading over to OA discussion now.

EDIT: In case no one has brought up the Chinese and/or that Spidey Will Never Die, I'd like to. 

2nd EDIT: Read the OA thread. Understand your opinion. Carry on. 

Just to clarify to people, I see this as a multi-decade, generational shift that's going to take place, and, even past the peak, it's not like our great hobby will die out overnight - the hobby will outlive us all, though, I believe that most of us will live to see the real (inflation-adjusted) peak and inflection point that takes us into long-term secular stagnation/decline. 

The aggregate value of comics and original art (OA) has never been higher than now.  It's been great on the way up, as returns (on the better material) have far outstripped growth in personal incomes, inflation and many other asset classes.  But, therein lies the future problem - on a relative basis, comics and OA have never been more expensive (re: LESS AFFORDABLE) than ever before.  And, as such, for the younger generations to clear the market at these prices (let alone higher, year after year after year)..it ain't gonna happen, because they'd have to be making A LOT more money than both Gen X and the Baby Boomers to be able to do so (and, in fact, the opposite looks to be the case).  

So, look at the aggregate value of comics and OA out there vs. the aggregate amount of financial resources that will be in the hobby.  One has been rising at an outsized pace, and the other will almost surely be LESS than for previous generations who benefited from owning these assets from much lower prices and being dealt a better hand financially outside of comics, to boot.  Folks, the math is beyond obvious - prices will, with metaphysical certainty, fall in the aggregate to clear the market come the next shift in the underlying demographics of this hobby.  Now, I can't tell you if that's 5 or 10 or 15 years from now, but, if you go far out enough, say, 30 years, I can tell you that we will be past the real (inflation-adjusted) peak for sure (and we probably won't have to wait anywhere near that long...I'm just using 30 years to highlight the inevitability over time).  

Now, back to your original question:  how will the Action #1s, Tec 27s, etc. hold up in this environment?  Well, there's still going to be, at the aggregate level, a lot of $$$ in the hobby.  Not enough to prop everything up, let alone keep prices rising indefinitely like they have been.  We've already seen a shift to collecting keys over run collecting - not only is it more social media friendly, but, it takes up less time, space and money.  I don't think it's a stretch to think that, what money there is in this hobby's future, will continue to gravitate towards the bigger books (we've seen similar dynamics in other hobbies, like stamps, which have passed their secular peak - the best of the best remain highly valued and most everything else is either in stagnation or decline).  So, it's at least possible that the AC 1s, Tec 27s, etc. hold up better than everything else.  That said, my personal belief is that these books are hugely overvalued in the grand scheme of things and will probably peak at some point as well. But, at least this is a debatable point; the ability and desire of the younger generations to clear the overall market at ever-rising prices is a complete non-starter of an argument.  

Edited July 8, 2019 by delekkerste