Your Predictions Please 0

[Bronty]

Agreed but we aren’t talking a big sexy increase.   Maybe that 50 dollar page goes to 100, well, big whoop really.  Takes more time to sell/ship than the 50 bucks a page best case scenario increase is worth 

[delekkerste]

3 minutes ago, Bird said:

This is why they could see a slight increase. They are impulse buy territory, good price for gifts from wives and girlfriends to their comic loving men. People might see them while browsing at a con and bang, sold. Their low value is why they have room to grow, it isn't an investment just a fun buy on a day out. It isn't about crossover appeal. I think generic GA art could also see slight increase in demand and therefore price.

Sure, that is possible. I just doubt that it would rise to any level that wouldn't broadly still be considered "cheap". 

[delekkerste]

3 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Agreed but we aren’t talking a big sexy increase.   Maybe that 50 dollar page goes to 100, well, big whoop really.  Takes more time to sell/ship than the 50 bucks a page best case scenario increase is worth 

Exactly!  I bought my pages for $20 and sold them for $50, but, the "150% gain" in price, in $ terms, wasn't enough to buy a nice dinner for two.  and, if they go from $50 to $100 or $150, that's just bumping along the ocean floor as far as I'm concerned. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by delekkerste

[Bird]

I agree, but that is exactly why they will possibly double in value. Ignored for a long time and other art is getting so that you need silly money. Some people just want to be in the game.

[vodou]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

selling for whatever one considers to be a cheap price (depending on the purchasing power of the dollar) at any given point in time.

inflation HEDGE!

[Rick2you2]

2 hours ago, Bird said:

This is why they could see a slight increase. They are impulse buy territory, good price for gifts from wives and girlfriends to their comic loving men. People might see them while browsing at a con and bang, sold. Their low value is why they have room to grow, it isn't an investment just a fun buy on a day out. It isn't about crossover appeal. I think generic GA art could also see slight increase in demand and therefore price.

Exactly what I was thinking. Or, a home decorator could get it framed and use it in a family room or some other casual space. It’s just fun.

[Bird]

In fact, I couldn't care less what happens to the McFarlane, top tier Frazetta, Byrne X-Men, and whatever else is high end markets! I have never been in those pools and don't expect to go there even should they come down considerably. I think the top end of the market will have much greater "correction" should it occur due to the greater height to fall. But the middle and bottom will continue to attract buyers and in many cases be more resistant to a crash. Yes, some stuff will not last (as I said in my poll responses, my Starman art is moving up but will likely come down hard by that 25 year point without jack knight going mainstream media). I was PM'ed just this morning from a boardie new to OA asking about prices on art below $1000. As the comic culture infuses the popular culture more and more people will seek out OA, just not at the top levels. I agree that the top players may be in for a reckoning.

[Rick2you2]

4 hours ago, vodou said:

Not holding my breath for that, nor the same for the 1930s

Total cultural period reboots only happen once. The 1980s ain't coming back again either.

Not a total cultural reboot, a popularity reboot. I remember about 15 years ago when Art Deco furniture, which runs from 1925-1940 or so surged in pricing. This is when “brown” old furniture was flattening out. More recently, we have seen similar growth in 1970’s furniture. And, reboots of 1960’s clothing styles have come around, along with vintage pieces. In the 1980’s, the elegant fashions from the 1930’s made a reappearance. Popularity loves to mine old styles. People will look at this, and junky horror, too, as fun. 

[Rick2you2]

3 hours ago, Bronty said:

To add my 2c, you feel like there’s a lot there for your money so you figure it will be in demand.   

In my experience, price doesn’t drive demand for the most part.    Demand drives price.     In other words, for the most part people want they want and pay they have to in order to get it, rather than changing what they want.  

That doesn’t bode well for this type of material.   If it was ever going to get hot, it would have been hot already.

That statement of yours is basic economic theory, and generally accurate. But, some manufacturers deliberately keep their prices high to create an aura of value. It does work, because people sometimes assume a high price equals high value. 

[delekkerste]

17 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Exactly what I was thinking. Or, a home decorator could get it framed and use it in a family room or some other casual space. It’s just fun.

But, again...how many home decorators are ever even going to come across a piece like this?  Are we going to start seeing interior designers pouring over Anthony Snyder's booth at shows looking for cheap romance OA?     It's just never going to happen other than an exercise in mental onanism. 

7 minutes ago, Bird said:

But the middle and bottom will continue to attract buyers and in many cases be more resistant to a crash. 

Sure, you're not going to get as hurt falling out of a 1st floor window as a fall from 80 stories high.  But, who are these new buyers who will continue to be attracted to the low and middle end while the higher end is falling?   If the higher end is falling, it's probably because there will be less buyers out there, period. 

[Will_K]

At $150, I don't think anyone outside of comics would buy that particular romance piece for themselves or another non-comics person.  They'll think it's a piece of c_rap with all the paste-on art and glue stains.

Better off putting it out as a mass produced poster.

And there's tons of "quaint" romance art.  Lots of twice-up Iger/Eisner art with romance or western/romance (e.g. cowgirls) that might look even better on a wall.  it might cost a little more than $150 but whatever.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Will_K

[Rick2you2]

2 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

But, again...how many home decorators are ever even going to come across a piece like this?  Are we going to start seeing interior designers pouring over Anthony Snyder's booth at shows looking for cheap romance OA?     It's just never going to happen other than an exercise in mental onanism. 

Sure, you're not going to get as hurt falling out of a 1st floor window as a fall from 80 stories high.  But, who are these new buyers who will continue to be attracted to the low and middle end while the higher end is falling?   If the higher end is falling, it's probably because there will be less buyers out there, period. 

Comic art tracker is one way. If you like furniture, try Chairish.

[Bird]

5 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

If the higher end is falling, it's probably because there will be less buyers out there, period. 

I think the amount of buyers will increase for next 10 years but people who spend crazy money will decrease. The higher end will fall but not due to less buyers. "Crazy" consumerism will not be tolerated as widely as it is now. As the prices go higher and higher more people will say, "screw that, I can buy XX (be it comic art or whatever) for far less".

That's my theory and I am sticking to it! 

Edited July 10, 2019 by Bird

[delekkerste]

3 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Comic art tracker is one way. If you like furniture, try Chairish.

But how many home decorators are on Comic Art Tracker or ever will be?    

And even if they were, how many of them would have the epiphany that this stuff might be cooler than a print or cheap piece of contemporary art to hang on a client's wall?  

This scenario is just not something that would happen in the real world in any meaningful sort of capacity, IMO. 

[vodou]

47 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

That statement of yours is basic economic theory, and generally accurate. But, some manufacturers deliberately keep their prices high to create an aura of value. It does work, because people sometimes assume a high price equals high value. 

Dan Ariely all day long here. If you've not read him (anybody, not just Rick2you2)...why the Don Heck not?!

[vodou]

44 minutes ago, Will_K said:

Lots of twice-up Iger/Eisner art with romance or western/romance (e.g. cowgirls) that might look even better on a wall.  it might cost a little more than $150 but whatever.

I bought up any 'n all Iger Romance and Western that had a pretty girl in at least one panel per page about fifteen years ago...for around $150/story. I'll do fine on that stuff "when it's time" but I don't think anybody paying $150+ per page will fare that well. I actually haven't kept up, is that what FMV is these days...more than $150/page?!

[vodou]

46 minutes ago, Bird said:

That's my theory and I am sticking to it! 

You da man

[vodou]

41 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

But how many home decorators are on Comic Art Tracker or ever will be?    

I just want Glen's Kirby chair that Butler made for him. Glen...cough it up already!

[grapeape]

 

The boards have discussed before what will happen when the "Brothers Grim" dump their large portfolio of 1) let me ask my brother 2)inquire 3) Has that art been altered with new stats? art. I do think about bubbles experienced and those coming in the future. How many OA art collectors exist? Will they like and pay for what we have collected? ha ha who the heck knows.

My feeling is this. In 1997-2003 I bought art that I planned on keeping forever. However i did sell a few pieces. I bought a silver Surfer page for $400 and three years later sold it to profiles in History for $4000. I sold many other pages at great profit but saved my big three. Now- in the last year i came on to health issues and faced a dilemma. Most of what I have left is tied up. i was looking at selling a $40000 cover to take care of a $5000 expense. I believe the cover has more run. I had exhausted less expensive art to hold on to my top pieces.I found another way.

Contrast with my brother who doesn't own a cover or pieces ranging $40k and up. He ran into financial troubles as well. He auctioned pages he had bought from 1999-2009 from $200-$700 a piece. With the exception of one page he made a killing on every page. A $500 Erik Larsen page went for $6000 ad he might list 2-3 pages per crisis and net $3k.

The point is a strategy that might bust an OA collapse is buying art pages $1500 or less and from a focus of

1) Character content represented 2) instinct:  Does the art speak to you and would it speak to a future buyer if you have to sell.

Avoiding the covers and art you could have had for $1000 years ago and paying too much now. How much is too much? Everyone here will differ but my examples were based on a need to sell scenario. When the stock market crashes do you sell or hang on for dear life? Are you prepared to hang on.

Rick I didn't exactly answer your question with specific artists that might tank because it would offend people that own those artists works. Also I didn't mention the names of the artists on my big three because all of us would be questioned on our motives. If you own Kirby or Liefield you'll naturally opine they may maintain or increase in value.

Finally I do believe there is a greater cross over to the fine art market coming. The interest will come from trendsetters seeing "insert avant-garde mutterings here" something breathtaking in the peasant art. That desire to bring it to the rich and cultured will come. It's not hard to see which comic artists would match up with Warhol Lichtenstein and more. My goal is to always buy what I love and make sure I have options to keep my 5 figure pieces if they become 2 cent pieces.

Good idea for a thread buddy.

[Mmehdy]

One must assume we will have some major ups and downs over the next 25 years. One major factor is a connection between the physical comic book and the buyer. The real turning point will begin with the elimination of the printed comic book from the major publishers. First I see the comic book going into the graphic novel. Worldwide comic hero awareness will increase  which is a good thing.  Recently on other theads, Mad will stop with issue #10 with original content and possibly have new content on the annuals etc I see this going towards the graphic novel approach.. That is a mirror of things to come. Here is my take:

5 years from now: prices and demand are  still very strong and increasing , the OA will  survive the coming economic correction which will be deep but short time wise and quality pieces will be the least effected..The George Lucas LA museum will have worldwide impact on the OA market exposing a TON of new interest and collectors and get record attendance as well as continued box office gold for comic related movies and tv shows.

10 years from now: Grail pieces get record prices, which we will shake out head looking back to today. Low tier art will be in demand and keep its value or increase sightly. Mid-term type pieces just retain their value with no price growth. Marvel is still the #1 movie studio in the world.George Lucas and other museums are aggressive  in getting significant pieces. Many price records  have been broken 

20 years from now: Comic Art  is sold thru all the major auctions houses. A Frazetta painting breaks $10 million dollar barrier. Grail pieces are courted by the major auction houses. George Lucas, cash flush from so many admissions is the largest buyer and collector of comic art. Other Major art museums begin buying and activity seeking donations of all comic art to increase attendance, In year 12 Superhero movies hit a low point, but a major hit from an independent publisher gives the SH movies a second wind,

25 years from now: Grail pieces retain their value with no price growth looking forward, mid-type items lose 75% value but there still is a market to sell if for the right price. Small items lose 90% or value ..no demand give away.

 

I reject this gloom and doom, I remember when EC art was hot then went cold , then went hot..as it is now......Yes some items, like a Hulk cover for 600K are set up losers...no matter what the market is, BUT quality will maintain value and demand thru the next 25 years.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Mmehdy