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Your Predictions Please
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132 posts in this topic

38 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

George Lucas, cash flush from so many admissions is the largest buyer and collector of comic art.

Already 75...very bullish predicting at least 95 yrs of age AND collecting at an ever-ramping intensity too!

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5 hours ago, delekkerste said:

But how many home decorators are on Comic Art Tracker or ever will be? ???   

And even if they were, how many of them would have the epiphany that this stuff might be cooler than a print or cheap piece of contemporary art to hang on a client's wall?  

This scenario is just not something that would happen in the real world in any meaningful sort of capacity, IMO. 

I think you are wrong about the future on this (but I generally agree with your long-term prognostication). I found out about Chairish; I expect decorators will, too. And, one will lead to another to another. Once they realize they don’t have to buy overpriced prints and set them in expensive frames, which are not needed with OA, it is just a matter of when.

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4 hours ago, vodou said:

Dan Ariely all day long here. If you've not read him (anybody, not just Rick2you2)...why the Don Heck not?!

Haven’t read him, but I’m an old economics major who loved off-beat branches. Way back when, we had “institutional” economics which was a catch-all for behavioral economics and other things which did not fall neatly into macro or microeconomics.

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3 hours ago, grapeape said:

 

The boards have discussed before what will happen when the "Brothers Grim" dump their large portfolio of 1) let me ask my brother 2)inquire 3) Has that art been altered with new stats? art. I do think about bubbles experienced and those coming in the future. How many OA art collectors exist? Will they like and pay for what we have collected? ha ha who the heck knows.

My feeling is this. In 1997-2003 I bought art that I planned on keeping forever. However i did sell a few pieces. I bought a silver Surfer page for $400 and three years later sold it to profiles in History for $4000. I sold many other pages at great profit but saved my big three. Now- in the last year i came on to health issues and faced a dilemma. Most of what I have left is tied up. i was looking at selling a $40000 cover to take care of a $5000 expense. I believe the cover has more run. I had exhausted less expensive art to hold on to my top pieces.I found another way.

Contrast with my brother who doesn't own a cover or pieces ranging $40k and up. He ran into financial troubles as well. He auctioned pages he had bought from 1999-2009 from $200-$700 a piece. With the exception of one page he made a killing on every page. A $500 Erik Larsen page went for $6000 ad he might list 2-3 pages per crisis and net $3k.

The point is a strategy that might bust an OA collapse is buying art pages $1500 or less and from a focus of

1) Character content represented 2) instinct:  Does the art speak to you and would it speak to a future buyer if you have to sell.

Avoiding the covers and art you could have had for $1000 years ago and paying too much now. How much is too much? Everyone here will differ but my examples were based on a need to sell scenario. When the stock market crashes do you sell or hang on for dear life? Are you prepared to hang on.

Rick I didn't exactly answer your question with specific artists that might tank because it would offend people that own those artists works. Also I didn't mention the names of the artists on my big three because all of us would be questioned on our motives. If you own Kirby or Liefield you'll naturally opine they may maintain or increase in value.

Finally I do believe there is a greater cross over to the fine art market coming. The interest will come from trendsetters seeing "insert avant-garde mutterings here" something breathtaking in the peasant art. That desire to bring it to the rich and cultured will come. It's not hard to see which comic artists would match up with Warhol Lichtenstein and more. My goal is to always buy what I love and make sure I have options to keep my 5 figure pieces if they become 2 cent pieces.

Good idea for a thread buddy.

I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Your brother, I think, nailed it where the sweet spot in pricing will be—low enough not to hurt the bank account, but high enough to get good work. One of my favorites is Tom Mandrake whose work, I think, is undervalued. 

I don’t think you should be offended by naming names. Quality and price do not necessarily go hand in hand. As I recall, Ivan Reis used to be hotter than he is now, but his work is still very good. On the other hand, how did Jim Lee’s work get so expensive, even though it is also  excellent. In 15-20 years, I doubt it will be viewed as justifying the prices it is commanding (adjusted for inflation)—not due to quality, but popularity.

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5 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Your brother, I think, nailed it where the sweet spot in pricing will be—low enough not to hurt the bank account, but high enough to get good work. One of my favorites is Tom Mandrake whose work, I think, is undervalued. 

I don’t think you should be offended by naming names. Quality and price do not necessarily go hand in hand. As I recall, Ivan Reis used to be hotter than he is now, but his work is still very good. On the other hand, how did Jim Lee’s work get so expensive, even though it is also  excellent. In 15-20 years, I doubt it will be viewed as justifying the prices it is commanding (adjusted for inflation)—not due to quality, but popularity.

7 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Your brother, I think, nailed it where the sweet spot in pricing will be—low enough not to hurt the bank account, but high enough to get good work. One of my favorites is Tom Mandrake whose work, I think, is undervalued. 

I don’t think you should be offended by naming names. Quality and price do not necessarily go hand in hand. As I recall, Ivan Reis used to be hotter than he is now, but his work is still very good. On the other hand, how did Jim Lee’s work get so expensive, even though it is also  excellent. In 15-20 years, I doubt it will be viewed as justifying the prices it is commanding (adjusted for inflation)—not due to quality, but popularity.

This much is true. You’re right no one should be offended. Who cares if one person thinks your art value will go down based on the artist? If you love the art that’s all that matters.

i think buying affordable and enjoyable pieces for your collection is the way to go. You have to know that if you spend beyond your comfort level you could suffer depreciated loss at a later date.

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14 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Still don’t want to take a shot at names?

 Okay,

McFarlane Spider-Man interiors

John Romita Spider-Man interiors

John Byrne FF interiors

all recreations no matter the artist

Has nothing to do with the skill level of these artists. They are some of the best. I feel people have paid too much based on emotion. Mike B has most of the supply. That’s dangerous to someone buying now. Will your 45k Romita page really appreciate in value? Maybe.

or.....

Did TF pay too much for the first app of Wolverine? Hey at least with that one he shot for the moon. I doubt he cares.

also you have newbies with money paying the same or more for Romita pages inked by artists other then Mooney or John himself.

John  Buscena inked by Jack Abel is not the same as inked by Sinnott. We could see a correction just based on BWK or buying without knowledge. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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i wonder : with the recent crazyness in asia (mainly china) about superheroes, and the huge part it takes now in super heroes movies profits, maybe it has created a whole new market (or will in the near future) for OA (and comics and comic related stuff)

 

i'm very surprised marvel already hasn't planned a super hero movie with an asian hero to capitalize on asian market

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6 hours ago, eewwnuk said:

So in conclusion, in order to support the long term viability of this hobby we need home decorators to subscribe to comicarttracker, with specific search criteria for "romance art"

lol

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7 hours ago, eewwnuk said:

So in conclusion, in order to support the long term viability of this hobby we need home decorators to subscribe to comicarttracker, with specific search criteria for "romance art"

Cute stretch. No, I originally wrote that kitschy art, like romance and schlock horror would enjoy a slight resurgence (I don’t see cowboys coming back). For the heavy hitting stuff, most of it won’t survive at these types of high price levels, but we will need a different buying generation in control to bring them down. I think the sweet spot in the 20-25 year future will be in the mid $1,000’s with a lot of buying below $1,000 (inflation adjusted). The middle range of pricing, particularly older stuff from the 1960’s-1980’s, in 25 years, won’t have sustained its high pricing levels and may be virtually dead. 

Let me add that there is a lot of very good art out there, being produced now, which I think collectors turn up their nose at. Creative panels, quality illustrative skills, respect for plot flow, etc. It just isn’t ringing the nostalgia bell. That is what will eventually be a major change agent as well as a generational shift.

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4 hours ago, visarspike said:

i wonder : with the recent crazyness in asia (mainly china) about superheroes, and the huge part it takes now in super heroes movies profits, maybe it has created a whole new market (or will in the near future) for OA (and comics and comic related stuff)

 

i'm very surprised marvel already hasn't planned a super hero movie with an asian hero to capitalize on asian market

Great point about creating new markets. Marvel is building for its Asia market already.  Shang Chi movie in the works. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.inverse.com/amp/article/56277-marvel-studios-shang-chi-release-date-cast-director-plot-more-details

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On 7/9/2019 at 10:15 PM, Will_K said:

I have my share of DC romance art and I wouldn't buy it for $150. 

For Win Mortimer/Vince Colletta art, I'd hold out.  And if one or more pieces of the paste-on art falls off, even Rick's wife may totally lose interest.

And I think your point is the OA market is not going to be supported by $150 pieces.

It's Rosenberger/Colletta, and $300. I'm in the process of buying it.

I don't care if my "wife" loses interest, since she wouldn't have any. We've been divorced for over 15 years. My female companion/gf, however, really likes it. 

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9 hours ago, Jay Olie Espy said:

Have you read this by any chance? I know it’s pricey. I just wonder if by future he means comic art going digital and such?

It was first solicited yesterday. No I haven't read it.

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28 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

It's Rosenberger/Colletta, and $300. I'm in the process of buying it.

Ugh.  Looks more like Mortimer, maybe if I saw the whole story.  In any case, I would not buy it.  But enjoy ir.

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2 hours ago, Stan Singh said:
6 hours ago, visarspike said:

i'm very surprised marvel already hasn't planned a super hero movie with an asian hero to capitalize on asian market

Great point about creating new markets. Marvel is building for its Asia market already.  Shang Chi movie in the works. 

I'd be more impressed if they had an Asian hero who wasn't a walking stereotype.

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