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Comic Art's Future: A Survey
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Started by Stan Singh,

39 posts in this topic

Stan Singh

Stan Singh

Posted
Posted (edited)

So many threads on the question of where will art values be in years to come. Figured I'd throw out a survey to see where the majority is. 3 questions... 5/10/20 years from now where will the hobby (in general be)?

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/2CV8J6P

Ps I'm no analytics person so apologies if the survey isn't 'scientific' or 'smart' or 'representative'. :(

Stan

Edited by Stan Singh
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delekkerste

delekkerste

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5 hours ago, exitmusicblue said:

50-year option woulda been fun.  Pretty optimistic results overall.

I'm shocked, shocked to see that, overall, most opioid addicts think that opioids will remain popular! :insane:  

Anyone who thinks what I've been saying is far-fetched fantasy "without any evidence" backing it up, as someone wrote in the comments, needs to put down the crushed oxycodone.  However much one may be in denial over my arguments, what cannot be denied is that I've talked with most of the top collectors in this hobby (see the GIF below lol). And, at least off the record, I'd say that more than half of them agree with me that there will be a demographic drop-off of some significance when our generation ages out. Not going to name names, but, some of the hobby's heavy hitters think it'll be every bit as dire as I'm making it out to be, and maybe even worse.  And why wouldn't they draw that conclusion? The numbers are as stark and obvious as they can possibly be; as far as I'm concerned, it's settled science and we're just waiting for the inevitable outcome over the next 20-30 years (and quite possibly less). 

You can either look at the facts and look forward, or, you can look in the rear-view mirror, but, either way, the future is coming. By all means, enjoy the art, enjoy the hobby, enjoy what I coined (on the Felix Comic Art podcast) The Golden Age of OA Collecting, while it lasts.  All I'm saying is that no one should be under any illusions that, what seems to be a permanent state of affairs (onward and upward, going from strength to strength over decades) is anything other than the up-phase of a multi-decade, multi-generational cycle that is very obviously going to inflect after the current generation is gone given what has happened to the younger generations' interests (splintered) and purchasing power (down due to both macro/debt factors and, even more importantly, due to the parabolic price appreciation of the art itself) over the past 25 years.

The real problem is that people hear 20-30 years and then when Heritage has another strong auction next quarter, everyone reverts back into "see, nothing to worry about!" mode. Funny that @glendgold made a climate change/pollution analogy in another thread, as that's another case where every year that goes by without catastrophe striking makes many people more complacent, even if it brings us one step closer to a reckoning. :eek: 

giphy.gif

Edited by delekkerste
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GreatCaesarsGhost

GreatCaesarsGhost

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33 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I'm shocked, shocked to see that, overall, most opioid addicts think that opioids will remain popular! :insane:  

Anyone who thinks what I've been saying is far-fetched fantasy "without any evidence" backing it up, as someone wrote in the comments, needs to put down the crushed oxycodone.  However much one may be in denial over my arguments, what cannot be denied is that I've talked with most of the top collectors in this hobby (see the GIF below lol). And, at least off the record, I'd say that more than half of them agree with me that there will be a demographic drop-off of some significance when our generation ages out. Not going to name names, but, some of the hobby's heavy hitters think it'll be every bit as dire as I'm making it out to be, and maybe even worse.  And why wouldn't they draw that conclusion? The numbers are as stark and obvious as they can possibly be; as far as I'm concerned, it's settled science and we're just waiting for the inevitable outcome over the next 20-30 years (and quite possibly less). 

You can either look at the facts and look forward, or, you can look in the rear-view mirror, but, either way, the future is coming. By all means, enjoy the art, enjoy the hobby, enjoy what I coined (on the Felix Comic Art podcast) The Golden Age of OA Collecting, while it lasts.  All I'm saying is that no one should be under any illusions that, what seems to be a permanent state of affairs (onward and upward, going from strength to strength over decades) is anything other than the up-phase of a multi-decade, multi-generational cycle that is very obviously going to inflect after the current generation is gone given what has happened to the younger generations' interests (splintered) and purchasing power (down due to both macro/debt factors and, even more importantly, due to the parabolic price appreciation of the art itself) over the past 25 years.

The real problem is that people hear 20-30 years and then when Heritage has another strong auction next quarter, everyone reverts back into "see, nothing to worry about!" mode. Funny that @glendgold made a climate change/pollution analogy in another thread, as that's another case where every year that goes by without catastrophe striking makes many people more complacent, even if it brings us one step closer to a reckoning. :eek: 

giphy.gif

I’m not an OA collector per se, but have gone quite heavily into Golden Age books.  I hear the wisdom in your words, and they echo thoughts in the back of my own mind about all golden age comic related collectibles 

People previously believed the golden ages of other hobbies would never end, but the landscape is now littered with their carcasses:

stamps, books, train sets, pez dispensers, beanie babies, etc.

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
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2 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I’m not an OA collector per se, but have gone quite heavily into Golden Age books.  I hear the wisdom in your words, and they echo thoughts in the back of my own mind about all golden age comic related collectibles 

People previously believed the golden ages of other hobbies would never end, but the landscape is now littered with their carcasses:

stamps, books, train sets, pez dispensers, beanie babies, etc.

I believe that comics will hold up better than those other hobbies.  I mean, some of those hobbies (and others) are pretty much dead as a doorknob now, whereas I expect comics as a hobby to remain relevant and outlive us all.  That said, I think that the number of people actually collecting (as opposed to enjoying the IP through movies, TV, videogames, merchandising, etc.) will contract over the long-term, and that the current back issue and comic art pricing structure has virtually zero chance of surviving the next generational changeover. 

As I've said, the best case is that some material will survive and possibly even thrive (much as the best of the best in other hobbies past their secular peaks have done, in some cases), but, I think it's a fait accompli that, at the very least, most material will decline in value in real (inflation-adjusted) terms over the very long-term. My personal belief is that the top end will be weighed down by so much of the middle hollowing out, but, I'm not saying that it isn't possible for the top end to survive or even thrive - there probably is enough money to prop up that portion of the market at least.  But, whether the demand/interest will be there to cause this bifurcation in the market, though, remains to be seen... 

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vodou

vodou

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1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

Funny that @glendgold made a climate change/pollution analogy in another thread, as that's another case where every year that goes by without catastrophe striking makes many people more complacent, even if it brings us one step closer to a reckoning. :eek: 

PEAK OIL!

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