Comic Art's Future: A Survey 3 3

[Varanis]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

I believe that comics will hold up better than those other hobbies.  I mean, some of those hobbies (and others) are pretty much dead as a doorknob now, whereas I expect comics as a hobby to remain relevant and outlive us all.  That said, I think that the number of people actually collecting (as opposed to enjoying the IP through movies, TV, videogames, merchandising, etc.) will contract over the long-term, and that the current back issue and comic art pricing structure has virtually zero chance of surviving the next generational changeover. 

As I've said, the best case is that some material will survive and possibly even thrive (much as the best of the best in other hobbies past their secular peaks have done, in some cases), but, I think it's a fait accompli that, at the very least, most material will decline in value in real (inflation-adjusted) terms over the very long-term. My personal belief is that the top end will be weighed down by so much of the middle hollowing out, but, I'm not saying that it isn't possible for the top end to survive or even thrive - there probably is enough money to prop up that portion of the market at least.  But, whether the demand/interest will be there to cause this bifurcation in the market, though, remains to be seen... 

I'm relatively new to this hobby, so take my opinions with a grain of salt, but I think there is a steep misassessment by the current OA market leaders in terms of the amount of new money that will come into this hobby. The fervency for superheroes has never been higher and, in my opinion, there is nothing more emblematic of the genre to collect than OA. Even if you just watch the movies, OA seems to me the pinnacle of what you could own to commemorate the genre and its origins.

Here are the factors I think are important for the next few decades:

1. It's critical to keep in mind this is a premium hobby. Most people will need to have been in the workforce for 10+ years before they really start diving into this hobby. Most of today's market leaders formed their initial opinions of the hobby and the market when premium pieces cost $100's not $1,000's. I don't think it's fair to expect younger fans to immediately be able to interact in the OA market.

2. I think right now we're seeing the children of the 60's and 70's really driving the market.

3. I think children of the 80's and 90's are going to have similar impact to the children of the 60's and 70's. These are the folks coming into buying power now. I'm in this bucket. There is a mix here of people who have always loved this hobby, people being brought back to it by the movies, and people being brought into it by the movies. There is also a good sized chunk of this population that couldn't care less about the hobby or genre.

4. I think children of the late 2000's and 2010's are going to blow this market open. Pretty much everyone here is growing up with the movies as their generation's Star Wars. Even if comic art is produced exclusively digitally in the future, original physical art will be valuable relics of the origin of this generation's defining genre.

Excluding global catastrophe, I think if the market fails it will either be due to a seismic shift in our valuation of physical products due to the increasing prevalence of digital assets or to the comic/superhero genre steeply declining in popularity. I don't expect the latter to happen, but I am willing to admit extreme bias on that point.

I think you make fair points and things could definitely go the direction you say, but I suspect we're going to be really surprised by just how bright the future is for comics and OA. That said, some OA is going to decrease a lot. There's just too much of it out there for it not too. I think Marvel, DC, and classics like Frazetta are going to maintain strong in the long term.

[Stan Singh]

22 minutes ago, AnkurJ said:

Awesome survey! You should do more!

I'll happily do more. It's cool to see how many responses it's gotten. 65 so far. We tend to base a lot of our discussions on opinions and I guess a little more data is never a bad thing. 

[delekkerste]

20 minutes ago, Varanis said:

I'm relatively new to this hobby, so take my opinions with a grain of salt, but I think there is a steep misassessment by the current OA market leaders in terms of the amount of new money that will come into this hobby. The fervency for superheroes has never been higher and, in my opinion, there is nothing more emblematic of the genre to collect than OA. Even if you just watch the movies, OA seems to me the pinnacle of what you could own to commemorate the genre and its origins.

Here are the factors I think are important for the next few decades:

1. It's critical to keep in mind this is a premium hobby. Most people will need to have been in the workforce for 10+ years before they really start diving into this hobby. Most of today's market leaders formed their initial opinions of the hobby and the market when premium pieces cost $100's not $1,000's. I don't think it's fair to expect younger fans to immediately be able to interact in the OA market.

2. I think right now we're seeing the children of the 60's and 70's really driving the market.

3. I think children of the 80's and 90's are going to have similar impact to the children of the 60's and 70's. These are the folks coming into buying power now. I'm in this bucket. There is a mix here of people who have always loved this hobby, people being brought back to it by the movies, and people being brought into it by the movies. There is also a good sized chunk of this population that couldn't care less about the hobby or genre.

4. I think children of the late 2000's and 2010's are going to blow this market open. Pretty much everyone here is growing up with the movies as their generation's Star Wars. Even if comic art is produced exclusively digitally in the future, original physical art will be valuable relics of the origin of this generation's defining genre.

Excluding global catastrophe, I think if the market fails it will either be due to a seismic shift in our valuation of physical products due to the increasing prevalence of digital assets or to the comic/superhero genre steeply declining in popularity. I don't expect the latter to happen, but I am willing to admit extreme bias on that point.

I think you make fair points and things could definitely go the direction you say, but I suspect we're going to be really surprised by just how bright the future is for comics and OA. That said, some OA is going to decrease a lot. There's just too much of it out there for it not too. I think Marvel, DC, and classics like Frazetta are going to maintain strong in the long term.

Even if you accept that the popularity of superheroes and comics in pop culture has never been higher (true), will continue indefinitely (debatable) and will continue to bring in new fans with $$$ who will long to own this material as much or more as previous generations (absolutely not, but, for argument's sake, I'll allow it), your argument does not hold up under scrutiny because:

1.  As you said, supply only goes up over time (as have prices to date)

2.  The aggregate value of the art out there is now simply too large for future generations to clear the market at current prices given the 10-100-1000x appreciation over the past 30 years

So, even allowing for comics culture going strong for decades to come, and for younger Millennials, Gen Z and future generations to have as much or more interest in buying this material as Gen X and the Baby Boomers when they start making more money, it's still not going to happen because they'd literally have to be multiple times better off to clear the market (this isn't an "ageist" statement - I've said that even most of the Baby Boomer and Gen X collectors themselves couldn't afford to re-buy their collections at prevailing market prices). And, in any case, we all know that the younger generations are not only going to be less well-off in the aggregate, but, they're also, on balance, not going to be as interested in the material in the same numbers. 

I mean, think about what you are arguing if you disagree with these statements:  that people who are growing up today, with a nearly infinite amount of media and entertainment options available at low or even no cost (on the Internet), and who aren't, by and large, even discovering or interacting with comic book characters through actual comic books and comic art, are going to be MORE interested and shell out MORE money on them than the Gen Xers and Baby Boomers (because that's the only way the market is going to keep going up, by definition), who grew up with the amount of entertainment options you could count on two hands (comics being one of them)!  There's also nothing ageist about pointing out the very real economic headwinds that Millennials and the generations that follow are facing/are going to face relative to the previous two generations that they're following. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by delekkerste

[Stan Singh]

14 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Even if you accept that the popularity of superheroes and comics in pop culture has never been higher (true), will continue indefinitely (debatable) and will continue to bring in new fans with $$$ who will long to own this material as much or more as previous generations (absolutely not, but, for argument's sake, I'll allow it), your argument does not hold up under scrutiny because:

1.  As you said, supply only goes up over time (as have prices to date)

2.  The aggregate value of the art out there is now simply too large for future generations to clear the market at current prices given the 10-100-1000x appreciation over the past 30 years

So, even allowing for comics culture going strong for decades to come, and for younger Millennials, Gen Z and future generations to have as much or more interest in buying this material as Gen X and the Baby Boomers when they start making more money, it's still not going to happen because they'd literally have to be multiple times better off to clear the market (this isn't an "ageist" statement - I've said that even most of the Baby Boomer and Gen X collectors themselves couldn't afford to re-buy their collections at prevailing market prices). And, in any case, we all know that the younger generations are not only going to be less well-off in the aggregate, but, they're also, on balance, not going to be as interested in the material in the same numbers. 

I mean, think about what you are arguing if you disagree with these statements:  that people who are growing up today, with a nearly infinite amount of media and entertainment options available at low or even no cost (on the Internet), and who aren't, by and large, even discovering or interacting with comic book characters through actual comic books and comic art, are going to be MORE interested and shell out MORE money on them than the Gen Xers and Baby Boomers (because that's the only way the market is going to keep going up, by definition), who grew up with the amount of entertainment options you could count on two hands (comics being one of them)!  There's also nothing ageist about pointing out the very real economic headwinds that Millennials and the generations that follow are facing/are going to face relative to the previous two generations that they're following. 

I think we have to be cautious of putting a whole generation into one spending bucket. Sure millennials overall seem to have less wealth now but some factors to consider are that these same millenials will inherit great wealth from their parents and that's a huge reason they are ok earning less now. Additionally this millennial generation while they are overall less wealthy than some gens, also are comprised of more high earners, millionaires and 1%ers than any other. And they love to spend it on experiences and nostalgia more so than on homes and cars. So if Avengers end game = star wars for them, which seems very plausible, I can see them spending money on collectibles that connect them to that experience. 

[AnkurJ]

5 minutes ago, Stan Singh said:

I think we have to be cautious of putting a whole generation into one spending bucket. Sure millennials overall seem to have less wealth now but some factors to consider are that these same millenials will inherit great wealth from their parents and that's a huge reason they are ok earning less now. Additionally this millennial generation while they are overall less wealthy than some gens, also are comprised of more high earners, millionaires and 1%ers than any other. And they love to spend it on experiences and nostalgia more so than on homes and cars. So if Avengers end game = star wars for them, which seems very plausible, I can see them spending money on collectibles that connect them to that experience. 

If Avengers or any other modern movie is equivalent to Star Wars, the big question is if the “experience” will be sought out with original art. It may be a very small percentage that go that direction with all the comics, lithographs and statues out there.

[John E.]

My parents, now we’ll into their 60s, took a huge hit on their wealth during the Great Recession. Both of my brothers did too and in one fashion or another, have had to be bailed on by my parents over the course of 10 years. My parents haven’t been able to recover that. (Neither had my then-nascent retirement fund.) As life expectancy rises as well as health care costs, I don’t expect to inherit anything or much from my parents as they will have spent it all to survive. But I’m from a working class family. If we’re talking two generations of surgeons or corporate lawyers, then please disregard. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by Jay Olie Espy

[delekkerste]

22 minutes ago, Stan Singh said:

I think we have to be cautious of putting a whole generation into one spending bucket. Sure millennials overall seem to have less wealth now but some factors to consider are that these same millenials will inherit great wealth from their parents and that's a huge reason they are ok earning less now. Additionally this millennial generation while they are overall less wealthy than some gens, also are comprised of more high earners, millionaires and 1%ers than any other. And they love to spend it on experiences and nostalgia more so than on homes and cars. So if Avengers end game = star wars for them, which seems very plausible, I can see them spending money on collectibles that connect them to that experience. 

First, I don't see people loving Endgame and feeling that they have to own Infinity Gauntlet art, unless they were already into comics and IG to begin with.  The actual known instances of film/TV being gateways to collecting comic art (as opposed to just bringing lapsed collectors back into the fold or just re-energizing existing ones) are few and far between.

Second, the composition of Millennials I think is less significant than you think, because there are also tons of fabulously wealthy Baby Boomers and Gen Xers as well, and we know roughly the composition of people who enter this hobby.  And, I've been around this hobby long enough to remember all the predictions of Bill Gates types getting into the hobby and all the Microsoft and Google and other Tech 1.0 millionaires/billionaires and Gen X hedge fund managers and producers and celebrities and then Russian oligarchs (longtime Boards will never forget OLEG THE SMARTEST OLIGARCH??? ) and Saudi and Chinese money - if your thesis ever depends on these people (or now all the tech 2.0 Millennial start-up founders now) coming into the market, you might as well dump all your art now, starting with McFarlane.  

I mean, what would make Millennial millionaires/billionaires enter this hobby in greater numbers and want to spend EVEN MORE than their predecessors (who actually grew up with this stuff and didn't just watch it on a movie screen)?  And, while it was possible for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers of more modest means to enter this hobby back in the day, there's actually now quite very high barriers to entry (on the better material) for similarly-situated younger collectors - it's no wonder you see them more active in the largely 3 and 4 figure newer material from artists that Felix and others represent. 

There is just no way that, in the aggregate, there's going to be more money coming into this hobby from the Millennials & Gen Z.  Just no way, it's a total non-starter of an argument.  And anything short of MOAR money means the market, by definition, will not be able to clear at ever-rising prices after the Gen Xers cash out (and the greater the shortfall, the more things that will fall in value). 

Incidentally, I'd highly recommend the book Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke - it's all about thinking more objectively, which I try to apply a little more every day. You have to play the cards that have been dealt, not the ones you wish you were dealt. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by delekkerste

[jaykza]

27 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

 

2.  The aggregate value of the art out there is now simply too large for future generations to clear the market at current prices given the 10-100-1000x appreciation over the past 30 years

So, even allowing for comics culture going strong for decades to come, and for younger Millennials, Gen Z and future generations to have as much or more interest in buying this material as Gen X and the Baby Boomers when they start making more money, it's still not going to happen because they'd literally have to be multiple times better off to clear the market (this isn't an "ageist" statement - I've said that even most of the Baby Boomer and Gen X collectors themselves couldn't afford to re-buy their collections at prevailing market prices). And, in any case, we all know that the younger generations are not only going to be less well-off in the aggregate, but, they're also, on balance, not going to be as interested in the material in the same numbers. 

 

I think to consider this you need a good estimate of how many active collectors out there are propping up the current market. I haven't counted exactly, but I estimate the total galleries on CAF to be around 12k. So maybe there are 10k active users/collectors. If that doesn't cover the collector base, I'd peg the size of the US hobby at 30k-50k collectors that are currently actively buying (this might be a high range). Not counting international buying power, my point is that the hobby was, is, and more than likely will continue to niche. I'm not so sure macro forecasts of generational buying power and taste are as relevant because history has continued to show that a miniscule percentage of the population has been able to support this market for quite an extended period of time. 

Many on the board might be able to come up with better estimates to hobby size, since I haven't really gone to conventions and am newer. But I don't think anyone will come up with a 6 figure estimate for number of active collectors/buyers in the hobby. Would love to hear your thinking on this line of thinking, Gene.

[vodou]

1 hour ago, RICKYBOBBY said:

When does everyone predict that will happen ?? 🤔 

Before 2032.

[delekkerste]

2 minutes ago, jaykza said:

I think to consider this you need a good estimate of how many active collectors out there are propping up the current market. I haven't counted exactly, but I estimate the total galleries on CAF to be around 12k. So maybe there are 10k active users/collectors. If that doesn't cover the collector base, I'd peg the size of the US hobby at 30k-50k collectors that are currently actively buying (this might be a high range). Not counting international buying power, my point is that the hobby was, is, and more than likely will continue to niche. I'm not so sure macro forecasts of generational buying power and taste are as relevant because history has continued to show that a miniscule percentage of the population has been able to support this market for quite an extended period of time. 

Many on the board might be able to come up with better estimates to hobby size, since I haven't really gone to conventions and am newer. But I don't think anyone will come up with a 6 figure estimate for number of active collectors/buyers in the hobby. Would love to hear your thinking on this line of thinking, Gene.

I'll freely admit when I don't know something, and, the size of the collector base is something that I admittedly don't know.  It would probably be a good question for a management consulting or Google interview.  

I agree though, that, in the grand scheme of things, this is a niche hobby and that it hasn't required huge numbers to support the market.  I even agree that you can't just look at median/average statistics, though, I don't think that's what I've done - I've been looking at what will happen at the margin.  Whatever the size of the market is for vintage OA, is there any evidence or reason to believe that it will be larger in the future than it is now given how expensive the hobby has gotten (high barriers to entry) and how splintered interests have gotten?  Is there any reason to believe that there's enough financial firepower to keep prices broadly rising when the Gen Xers call it a day?  I think anyone looking at this objectively would have to conclude that the answer is no - there's too much art out there, and prices have risen by orders of magnitude from where the Boomers and Xers were buying it (and flipping it and otherwise using the appreciation to build their collections as more of them entered the hobby). 

I'm not saying that the hobby is so large (it's not) that there isn't conceivably enough money out there to move the needle in the future.  There is, but, we have to be realistic about the prospects of fine art money and orders of magnitude more foreign money coming into this market.  It's like when someone says, "I wouldn't sell this $10K piece at any price because I love it so much" and then someone says, "well, what about for $1 million?"  I mean, of course that person would sell the piece for $1 million, but, no one is going to ever offer that much.  Similarly, Oleg the Smartest Oligarch (tm) isn't going to suddenly decide to sink $50 million a year into the OA market when the Gen Xers call it a day and plug the funding gap to keep prices rising indefinitely.   

[Varanis]

43 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Even if you accept that the popularity of superheroes and comics in pop culture has never been higher (true), will continue indefinitely (debatable) and will continue to bring in new fans with $$$ who will long to own this material as much or more as previous generations (absolutely not, but, for argument's sake, I'll allow it), your argument does not hold up under scrutiny because:

1.  As you said, supply only goes up over time (as have prices to date)

2.  The aggregate value of the art out there is now simply too large for future generations to clear the market at current prices given the 10-100-1000x appreciation over the past 30 years

So, even allowing for comics culture going strong for decades to come, and for younger Millennials, Gen Z and future generations to have as much or more interest in buying this material as Gen X and the Baby Boomers when they start making more money, it's still not going to happen because they'd literally have to be multiple times better off to clear the market (this isn't an "ageist" statement - I've said that even most of the Baby Boomer and Gen X collectors themselves couldn't afford to re-buy their collections at prevailing market prices). And, in any case, we all know that the younger generations are not only going to be less well-off in the aggregate, but, they're also, on balance, not going to be as interested in the material in the same numbers. 

I mean, think about what you are arguing if you disagree with these statements:  that people who are growing up today, with a nearly infinite amount of media and entertainment options available at low or even no cost (on the Internet), and who aren't, by and large, even discovering or interacting with comic book characters through actual comic books and comic art, are going to be MORE interested and shell out MORE money on them than the Gen Xers and Baby Boomers (because that's the only way the market is going to keep going up, by definition), who grew up with the amount of entertainment options you could count on two hands (comics being one of them)!  There's also nothing ageist about pointing out the very real economic headwinds that Millennials and the generations that follow are facing/are going to face relative to the previous two generations that they're following. 

I think it's totally possible it plays out that way, but I don't think it's the only way it could play out. See counterpoints below:

1. Supply vs Price - I think market capitalization is probably a good concept to discuss here (essentially the aggregate value of all comic art). I think total market cap will continue to go up, but it won't be driven by supply. I actually don't think supply really matters with OA. Every piece is one-of-a-kind. Adding to the bulk of undesirable pages has very little impact to the hobby from what I can tell. The supply of key pages will increase too, but that shouldn't drive the overall market up or down, it will just shift values from one piece to another the same it's worked with comics for years.

2. Millennial Wealth - I agree with your conclusions on individual distribution of wealth, but I'm not sure I agree that will impact the OA market. Wealth isn't going to stop existing, it's just going to be concentrated across fewer people. Only time will tell, but I think the increase in popularity of superheroes will correlate to a higher percentage of wealth being in the hands of people interested in that genre even if the absolute number of people who are both interested in the genre and have wealth to spend on it decreases. I think there's an argument even that such a scenario would drive peak prices even higher as the top players have more luxury wealth at their disposal. There's also an argument that fewer interested parties with wealth means there's less competition on certain pieces and thus lower prices. While either of the previous scenarios could be true, I think the important piece is that greater wealth with interest in the genre should still exist.

3. Decline in popularity of comics as a medium - I don't disagree with you on this point. Whether it's comics as an art form declining in popularity or alternative collectibles being viewed as more desirable for superhero collectors, I think both are distinct possibilities. I believe comics will reinvent themselves something over the next decade to compete with other forms of media, but I'm willing to admit that's quite a large assumption. I personally don't think the comic book format is outdated - I actually think it's in its infancy still relative to other art forms. I do think the way in which comics are delivered/distributed is egregiously outdated and corrosive to the art form's growth. As you allude to, it's a little crazy to think younger generations will continue to support a form of physical entertainment that costs $4 for 15 minutes of product. I do think it's a bit ageist to assume younger generations don't want to read. Not that you made that argument, but I've definitely seen it made by others before. I think comics will find a cheaper, digital form in which to distribute and actually increase in popularity (again, huge assumption). I also think OA will remain a more desirable collectible than alternatives because it's so deeply rooted in the origins of the genre, but I'm also willing to admit that's a bit of an assumption.

[Varanis]

27 minutes ago, jaykza said:

I think to consider this you need a good estimate of how many active collectors out there are propping up the current market. I haven't counted exactly, but I estimate the total galleries on CAF to be around 12k. So maybe there are 10k active users/collectors. If that doesn't cover the collector base, I'd peg the size of the US hobby at 30k-50k collectors that are currently actively buying (this might be a high range). Not counting international buying power, my point is that the hobby was, is, and more than likely will continue to niche. I'm not so sure macro forecasts of generational buying power and taste are as relevant because history has continued to show that a miniscule percentage of the population has been able to support this market for quite an extended period of time. 

Many on the board might be able to come up with better estimates to hobby size, since I haven't really gone to conventions and am newer. But I don't think anyone will come up with a 6 figure estimate for number of active collectors/buyers in the hobby. Would love to hear your thinking on this line of thinking, Gene.

I think this is a really good point. I don't think I or anyone else with optimism in the market is expecting OA to be in demand by every household. It doesn't take that many additional interested parties to move the market, and I have a hard time believing the movies won't convert a higher rate of people over time than the original comics did in the 60's and 70's. 

[delekkerste]

22 minutes ago, Varanis said:

I think it's totally possible it plays out that way, but I don't think it's the only way it could play out. See counterpoints below:

1. Supply vs Price - I think market capitalization is probably a good concept to discuss here (essentially the aggregate value of all comic art). I think total market cap will continue to go up, but it won't be driven by supply. I actually don't think supply really matters with OA. Every piece is one-of-a-kind. Adding to the bulk of undesirable pages has very little impact to the hobby from what I can tell. The supply of key pages will increase too, but that shouldn't drive the overall market up or down, it will just shift values from one piece to another the same it's worked with comics for years.

2. Millennial Wealth - I agree with your conclusions on individual distribution of wealth, but I'm not sure I agree that will impact the OA market. Wealth isn't going to stop existing, it's just going to be concentrated across fewer people. Only time will tell, but I think the increase in popularity of superheroes will correlate to a higher percentage of wealth being in the hands of people interested in that genre even if the absolute number of people who are both interested in the genre and have wealth to spend on it decreases. I think there's an argument even that such a scenario would drive peak prices even higher as the top players have more luxury wealth at their disposal. There's also an argument that fewer interested parties with wealth means there's less competition on certain pieces and thus lower prices. While either of the previous scenarios could be true, I think the important piece is that greater wealth with interest in the genre should still exist.

3. Decline in popularity of comics as a medium - I don't disagree with you on this point. Whether it's comics as an art form declining in popularity or alternative collectibles being viewed as more desirable for superhero collectors, I think both are distinct possibilities. I believe comics will reinvent themselves something over the next decade to compete with other forms of media, but I'm willing to admit that's quite a large assumption. I personally don't think the comic book format is outdated - I actually think it's in its infancy still relative to other art forms. I do think the way in which comics are delivered/distributed is egregiously outdated and corrosive to the art form's growth. As you allude to, it's a little crazy to think younger generations will continue to support a form of physical entertainment that costs $4 for 15 minutes of product. I do think it's a bit ageist to assume younger generations don't want to read. Not that you made that argument, but I've definitely seen it made by others before. I think comics will find a cheaper, digital form in which to distribute and actually increase in popularity (again, huge assumption). I also think OA will remain a more desirable collectible than alternatives because it's so deeply rooted in the origins of the genre, but I'm also willing to admit that's a bit of an assumption.

On supply vs. price, while you're right that additional (newly created) supply probably doesn't affect the market much, the dis-hoarding by Gen Xers over the next several decades will matter a lot.  In fact, there will come a time when it is just about the only thing that matters.  

On Millennial wealth, again, that's only part of the equation.  Even if you think the distribution of wealth allows for there being enough financial resources to theoretically clear the market, that smaller sub-section of people is still going to have to enter the market and spend considerably more than previous generations to keep the market going from strength to strength.  We can agree to disagree, but, I see the chance of this happening to be between slim and none and closer to the latter! 

I think it's difficult to argue that comics are in their infancy when titles used to sell in the millions in the early days (and comic strips were wildly popular as well) and then in the hundreds of thousands during their renaissance in the '80s and early '90s.  Personally, I love digital comics!  But, the fact is that people can order Marvel Unlimited for like $99 a year and read enough comics to get their average cost down to almost nothing.  And Comixology is always having huge sales - unless you have to buy a series when it's brand new, if you wait a few months and the sales kick in, you can almost invariably end up buying the "trades" electronically for like $5.99 (or, about $1 per individual issue).  I really don't think that cost is the problem here - it's the fact that there is SO MUCH other media & entertainment content (much of it FREE or otherwise all-you-can-eat for a fixed fee, like Netflix) that is competing for mindshare these days. 

I think many comics fans are greatly, greatly, greatly underestimating that, just because because people like to go out and spend 2 or 3 hours watching a superhero film in the cinema once every couple of months, that doesn't mean that they have the time or the inclination to spend hours and hours to delve into this material like us (the True Believers!!)  We are at a point in history where it is impossible to keep up with all the content that interests us these days.  I mean, literally there are not enough hours in the day for that to occur.  And, as such, it would beggar belief to think that, despite the overall popularity of comic book properties, people's interests haven't been fractured to the point where people aren't surely spending a lot less time with comic books than they used to, much as no TV show is able to garner the kind of audiences that the shows back in the '80s and '90s could (smaller population with less access to TV BUT far less competition for eyeballs!)  

Edited July 10, 2019 by delekkerste

[vodou]

9 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

that smaller sub-section of people is still going to have to enter the market and spend considerably more than previous generations to keep the market going from strength to strength.

It's not that they will have to spend "more" in nominal terms it's that they will have to spend a significantly greater percentage of their disposable income than we did, every step of the way, to keep the balloon inflated and inflating (nothing kills a momentum market more than obvious signs of sag!) Why? Because price "growth" to date has already been significantly outpacing income growth, and this has been true for a long time. (15 years?) Price increase has simply been on a much steeper incline than disposable income.

[Varanis]

22 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

On supply vs. price, while you're right that additional (newly created) supply probably doesn't affect the market much, the dis-hoarding by Gen Xers over the next several decades will matter a lot.  In fact, there will come a time when it is just about the only thing that matters.  

On Millennial wealth, again, that's only part of the equation.  Even if you think the distribution of wealth allows for there being enough financial resources to theoretically clear the market, that smaller sub-section of people is still going to have to enter the market and spend considerably more than previous generations to keep the market going from strength to strength.  We can agree to disagree, but, I see the chance of this happening to be between slim and none and closer to the latter! 

I think it's difficult to argue that comics are in their infancy when titles used to sell in the millions in the early days (and comic strips were wildly popular as well) and then in the hundreds of thousands during their renaissance in the '80s and early '90s.  Personally, I love digital comics!  But, the fact is that people can order Marvel Unlimited for like $99 a year and read enough comics to get their average cost down to almost nothing.  And Comixology is always having huge sales - unless you have to buy a series when it's brand new, if you wait a few months and the sales kick in, you can almost invariably end up buying the "trades" electronically for like $5.99 (or, about $1 per individual issue).  I really don't think that cost is the problem here - it's the fact that there is SO MUCH other media & entertainment content (much of it FREE or otherwise all-you-can-eat for a fixed fee, like Netflix) that is competing for mindshare these days. 

I think many comics fans are greatly, greatly, greatly underestimating that, just because because people like to go out and spend 2 or 3 hours watching a superhero film in the cinema once every couple of months, that doesn't mean that they have the time or the inclination to spend hours and hours to delve into this material like us (the True Believers!!)  We are at a point in history where it is impossible to keep up with all the content that interests us these days.  I mean, literally there are not enough hours in the day for that to occur.  And, as such, it would beggar belief to think that, despite the overall popularity of comic book properties, people's interests haven't been fractured to the point where people aren't surely spending a lot less time with comic books than they used to, much as no TV show is able to garner the kind of audiences that the shows back in the '80s and '90s could (smaller population with less access to TV BUT far less competition for eyeballs!)  

It will be interesting to see how "dis-hoarding" plays out. That isn't something I had considered. I think there are likely more variables in play here than we might anticipate and it may not hit as hard as you say, but I will concede this is a point I am woefully unequipped to comment on. 

I won't be surprised if Millenial wealth plays out like you say, but I would bet on the optimistic side if forced too. As you say, an agree to disagree.

I think the art of sequential visual storytelling in a print format (digital or physical) is very under explored as compared to pure written or visual work. Perhaps I'm just not familiar with more inventive things out there, but I feel like there's a lot the medium could do to reinvigorate itself artistically. I think the commercial aspects of comics have forced it to look and act a certain way and deprived the medium from specific mainstream attention it might have otherwise gotten if it had produced a work unequivocally praised for artistic merit. Basically I'm using way too many words to say that comics aren't considered fine art by the mainstream, but I don't see why that couldn't change in the future if the format is allowed to evolve.

I also think distribution of commercial comic products is underdeveloped. You are definitely correct that I am incorrect in saying the market is in its infancy relative to its history. I used my words very poorly to try to articulate that I feel there could be substantial growth in the medium if distribution and marketing are tackled differently. I could just be trying to justify the existence of a hobby I enjoy, but the difficulties I've had interacting with digital distribution methods make me feel there's still room for a lot of growth there. I also feel like there's a lot that can be done to market digital comics. Why not give a free digital comic with movie tickets? I think a lot can be done on a digital platform to help create a better new user experience for readers too. E.g.; provide an interactive suggested reading order, create interactive searches based on writer/artist., etc. It's just my opinion, but the digital platform for comics feels really underdeveloped.

I'm going to go a little off the rails here, but I also think it's fascinating to explore the idea of digital collectible comics. I think comics are really two separate products rolled into one: a collectible and a story. Both are aspects are pretty important to the overall commodity, but have different ideal distribution methods. Our current understanding of a collectible predicates that it must be physical, but it's much more efficient to distribute the story part of the product digitally (I'd argue digital is a much better user experience too). Digital comics don't have any collectibility at the moment, but this could change. Technology like blockchain can allow you to create unique digital assets. You could even do digital print runs and collect limited variants in digital form. It'll obviously be awhile before comics do anything in that vein, but I think it could be a really interesting direction.

[exitmusicblue]

6 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I'm shocked, shocked to see that, overall, most opioid addicts think that opioids will remain popular!   

Anyone who thinks what I've been saying is far-fetched fantasy "without any evidence" backing it up, as someone wrote in the comments, needs to put down the crushed oxycodone.  However much one may be in denial over my arguments, what cannot be denied is that I've talked with most of the top collectors in this hobby (see the GIF below ). And, at least off the record, I'd say that more than half of them agree with me that there will be a demographic drop-off of some significance when our generation ages out. Not going to name names, but, some of the hobby's heavy hitters think it'll be every bit as dire as I'm making it out to be, and maybe even worse.  And why wouldn't they draw that conclusion? The numbers are as stark and obvious as they can possibly be; as far as I'm concerned, it's settled science and we're just waiting for the inevitable outcome over the next 20-30 years (and quite possibly less). 

You can either look at the facts and look forward, or, you can look in the rear-view mirror, but, either way, the future is coming. By all means, enjoy the art, enjoy the hobby, enjoy what I coined (on the Felix Comic Art podcast) The Golden Age of OA Collecting, while it lasts.  All I'm saying is that no one should be under any illusions that, what seems to be a permanent state of affairs (onward and upward, going from strength to strength over decades) is anything other than the up-phase of a multi-decade, multi-generational cycle that is very obviously going to inflect after the current generation is gone given what has happened to the younger generations' interests (splintered) and purchasing power (down due to both macro/debt factors and, even more importantly, due to the parabolic price appreciation of the art itself) over the past 25 years.

The real problem is that people hear 20-30 years and then when Heritage has another strong auction next quarter, everyone reverts back into "see, nothing to worry about!" mode. Funny that @glendgold made a climate change/pollution analogy in another thread, as that's another case where every year that goes by without catastrophe striking makes many people more complacent, even if it brings us one step closer to a reckoning.  

Bahumbug my sunbae !!! Hahahaha...

[exitmusicblue]

6 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I'm shocked, shocked to see that, overall, most opioid addicts think that opioids will remain popular!   

Anyone who thinks what I've been saying is far-fetched fantasy "without any evidence" backing it up, as someone wrote in the comments, needs to put down the crushed oxycodone.  However much one may be in denial over my arguments, what cannot be denied is that I've talked with most of the top collectors in this hobby (see the GIF below ). And, at least off the record, I'd say that more than half of them agree with me that there will be a demographic drop-off of some significance when our generation ages out. Not going to name names, but, some of the hobby's heavy hitters think it'll be every bit as dire as I'm making it out to be, and maybe even worse.  And why wouldn't they draw that conclusion? The numbers are as stark and obvious as they can possibly be; as far as I'm concerned, it's settled science and we're just waiting for the inevitable outcome over the next 20-30 years (and quite possibly less). 

You can either look at the facts and look forward, or, you can look in the rear-view mirror, but, either way, the future is coming. By all means, enjoy the art, enjoy the hobby, enjoy what I coined (on the Felix Comic Art podcast) The Golden Age of OA Collecting, while it lasts.  All I'm saying is that no one should be under any illusions that, what seems to be a permanent state of affairs (onward and upward, going from strength to strength over decades) is anything other than the up-phase of a multi-decade, multi-generational cycle that is very obviously going to inflect after the current generation is gone given what has happened to the younger generations' interests (splintered) and purchasing power (down due to both macro/debt factors and, even more importantly, due to the parabolic price appreciation of the art itself) over the past 25 years.

The real problem is that people hear 20-30 years and then when Heritage has another strong auction next quarter, everyone reverts back into "see, nothing to worry about!" mode. Funny that @glendgold made a climate change/pollution analogy in another thread, as that's another case where every year that goes by without catastrophe striking makes many people more complacent, even if it brings us one step closer to a reckoning.  

Also, that's all a good hobby needs -- believers and to-be-believers. B-)

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

37 minutes ago, romitaman said:

i'll let you know on November 3rd 2020.

Truer words were never spoken

[SquareChaos]

I've been in the hobby less than a decade, but it seems clear to me that in a global economy where the numbers show that the gap between the haves and the have nots continues to widen and the cost of living and of inelastic goods and services rise ever higher, luxury hobbies such as this one are unlikely to be immune. 

I think OA collecting will continue, but once the last of the "early generations" bow out you'll have fewer and fewer people playing with funny money from buying low and selling or trading high - the already mentioned ever rising cost to scrape out a meager existence should explain why new money coming into the ecosystem in large amounts seems like a poor (but not impossible) bet.

As for the movies brining people into the original art game, well, I'm not even convinced it brings them into the $25 a month subscription box club and I would think most of us were readers before we were art collectors, though I'm sure there are always exceptions.