SDCC 2019 - Original Art pics 1 1

[vodou]

2 hours ago, zhamlau said:

You know what’s sad. I keep finding myself thinking that if the comic art market collapsing and prices drop 60-70% like predicted. I’d go on a huge buying spree and pick up art I either sold off years ago or never had and always wanted. 

If this one eluded your younger self, booking for $8 at issue:

fear not, eBay to the rescue:

How many do you need?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1988-Donruss-GREGG-JEFFERIES-RC-50-CARD-LOT-ONCE-A-HIGHLY-TOUTED-PROSPECT/183785744972?hash=item2aca7bea4c:g:ii8AAOSwAWNcv6Ij

[Twanj]

3 hours ago, grapeape said:

RickyBobby I truly understand why you are chapped. I saw this on Friday at $5000 and some have suggested seeing the same price on preview night. I liked it too however I thought for sure it was inked by someone other than Kirby. A rep said he believed it was all Kirby and I let it be. Glen Gold who I trust on Kirby and on original art in general says Alcala worked on the piece. I'm with you so sorry you had your heart set at that price. I truly believe it was an error.

Did you pick up anything cool you want to share?

I have to agree with mistake too. They'd never sell for $2950 what HA sold for $2270 in 2016.

There's a number of other Kirby / Alcala (attributed) stuff that was sold there too.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/jack-kirby-and-alfredo-alcala-attributed-thor-animation-cartoon-concept-illustration-original-art-ruby-spears-/a/7124-92143.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

[thethedew]

4 hours ago, zhamlau said:

You know what’s sad. I keep finding myself thinking that if the comic art market collapsing and prices drop 60-70% like predicted. I’d go on a huge buying spree and pick up art I either sold off years ago or never had and always wanted. 

THIS.

(Though the fact some feel this way (and perhaps are financially prepared for it) would be a bulwark against the Comic Art Market NOT collapsing.)

[Bronty]

No idea how you or any particular person would act but most people waiting for that day will be scared poopless by it   .   If the market tanked tomorrow and the shine came off the apple a lot of people would suddenly see the art as a little less special, and they’d suddenly have a few more real world expenses, and suddenly be afraid that things are going to fall further , or tell themselves they are going to be smart to wait for apocalypse 2 because apocalypse 1 left too much value.   

Whats the right time to buy?  When things fall 10% ?  20? 30? 40? There’s no clarity about what happens next at any of those points.   IMO some people who say ‘I’d buy more if it was cheaper’ are in fact justifying their current purchases to themselves rather than making any kind of analysis of what they’d really do if the market took a poop.   

Ie it’s easy to say that on a surface level but I think we underestimate how much of a bummer it would be mentally if the market deflated.    Whether we consciously admit it or not, rising prices keeps us interested to some degree

Edited July 26, 2019 by Bronty

[zhamlau]

3 hours ago, vodou said:

If this one eluded your younger self, booking for $8 at issue:

fear not, eBay to the rescue:

How many do you need?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1988-Donruss-GREGG-JEFFERIES-RC-50-CARD-LOT-ONCE-A-HIGHLY-TOUTED-PROSPECT/183785744972?hash=item2aca7bea4c:g:ii8AAOSwAWNcv6Ij

!!!! But I must save all my money for  Brien Taylor! Can’t be diverting those funds.

I joke but I bought dozens of Pete Alonso 2016 Bowman Chrome auto cards last year after seeing him in the Minor League All Star Game last year.  His raw base auto Bowman’s were going off at 20 dollars a pop. I even bought the full color spectrum in psa 10 and BGS 9.5. Been selling some off but here was my set at its height this April. 

[zhamlau]

1 hour ago, thethedew said:

THIS.

(Though the fact some feel this way (and perhaps are financially prepared for it) would be a bulwark against the Comic Art Market NOT collapsing.)

Yeah I’m pretty sure we won’t get there because of that, but maybe some half way point. The truth of the matter is this is all one of a kind material associated with widely known material that interests thousands of people who even in the darkest days (Assuming we don’t fall to “The Road” level collapse) would have some disposable income. This ain’t stamps. But maybe a 40-50 percent softening could occur, who knows. It would be a real exciting chance if just a price reduction to get some great pieces as folks sell off.

[vodou]

7 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

But maybe a 40-50 percent softening could occur, who knows. It would be a real exciting chance if just a price reduction to get some great pieces as folks sell off.

For this to happen the implicit assumption is that approximately half the support would disappear. That has to have the immediately chilling effect of "will it ever come back?" being asked...if you're laying out more than play money. Can anybody here honestly state that more than $10,000 a year is still play money, whether it's for a single piece or many aggregated over a year?

I pick $10k because that's a number where 1/2 price cuts would still put a ton of art "above" but would also be a tough bite to make in a very obviously falling market (obviously = big 40-50% haircut across the board!)

And FWIW if only half the money is still interested in the hobby...is that enough to not have the whole thing totally collapse over time as more and more supply comes to market too?!

We do all understand that this entire hobby (as to price) is demand driven, right? There is absolutely zero supply concern...so much friggin' "art" out there and more and more being finished every hour of every day. And it's all expecting a floor of $100 for panel pages $175 for splashes $350 for covers.

I don't think anybody is handicapping this exclusive of all other things being equal, which is never how things really work.

[tth2]

7 hours ago, zhamlau said:

You know what’s sad. I keep finding myself thinking that if the comic art market collapsing and prices drop 60-70% like predicted. I’d go on a huge buying spree and pick up art I either sold off years ago or never had and always wanted. 

That's what people always say, in all asset classes, when the market's been up.

And guess what happens when prices really fall like that?  Not a buyer in sight.

Why?  Because (i) we can't tell the future, so by the time prices have dropped 60-70%, we're shell shocked and by that point have no idea if prices are going to keep dropping, (ii) potential buyers have suffered such a hit to their overall savings and investments that the last thing they want to do is to put their remaining money into rapidly depreciating assets, (iii) a corollary to (i) & (ii) is that people did buy as prices plunged, but prices kept plunging and soon we get gun shy of putting in more money that seems to evaporate overnight and (iv) as a corollary to (iii), once we see prices dropping, then we decide to wait for another 10% drop, and then when prices actually drop another 10% we don't buy but think that we'll just wait for another 10% drop, and never pull the trigger at all.

If you hang out in the Water Cooler at all, go into the "$500 Gold" thread and go back to 2006 and 2007, when people were talking big about how they would jump in big if the stock markets would plunge, and then fast forward to 2008 and 2009 when the markets really did plunge and feel all the panic and fear in the posts from the same people (who were not buying). 

[tth2]

1 hour ago, Bronty said:

No idea how you or any particular person would act but most people waiting for that day will be scared poopless by it   .   If the market tanked tomorrow and the shine came off the apple a lot of people would suddenly see the art as a little less special, and they’d suddenly have a few more real world expenses, and suddenly be afraid that things are going to fall further , or tell themselves they are going to be smart to wait for apocalypse 2 because apocalypse 1 left too much value.   

Whats the right time to buy?  When things fall 10% ?  20? 30? 40? There’s no clarity about what happens next at any of those points.   IMO some people who say ‘I’d buy more if it was cheaper’ are in fact justifying their current purchases to themselves rather than making any kind of analysis of what they’d really do if the market took a poop.   

Ie it’s easy to say that on a surface level but I think we underestimate how much of a bummer it would be mentally if the market deflated.    Whether we consciously admit it or not, rising prices keeps us interested to some degree

Great minds think alike.

[grapeape]

6 hours ago, vodou said:

If this one eluded your younger self, booking for $8 at issue:

fear not, eBay to the rescue:

How many do you need?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1988-Donruss-GREGG-JEFFERIES-RC-50-CARD-LOT-ONCE-A-HIGHLY-TOUTED-PROSPECT/183785744972?hash=item2aca7bea4c:g:ii8AAOSwAWNcv6Ij

I'm a huge Mets fans. Love Greg Jefferies. Wow look how many cards lol.

[batman_fan]

1 hour ago, tth2 said:

That's what people always say, in all asset classes, when the market's been up.

And guess what happens when prices really fall like that?  Not a buyer in sight.

Why?  Because (i) we can't tell the future, so by the time prices have dropped 60-70%, we're shell shocked and by that point have no idea if prices are going to keep dropping, (ii) potential buyers have suffered such a hit to their overall savings and investments that the last thing they want to do is to put their remaining money into rapidly depreciating assets, (iii) a corollary to (i) & (ii) is that people did buy as prices plunged, but prices kept plunging and soon we get gun shy of putting in more money that seems to evaporate overnight and (iv) as a corollary to (iii), once we see prices dropping, then we decide to wait for another 10% drop, and then when prices actually drop another 10% we don't buy but think that we'll just wait for another 10% drop, and never pull the trigger at all.

If you hang out in the Water Cooler at all, go into the "$500 Gold" thread and go back to 2006 and 2007, when people were talking big about how they would jump in big if the stock markets would plunge, and then fast forward to 2008 and 2009 when the markets really did plunge and feel all the panic and fear in the posts from the same people (who were not buying). 

You just summed up why I didn’t buy Ford stock on their big drop yesterday 

[grapeape]

3 hours ago, zhamlau said:

!!!! But I must save all my money for  Brien Taylor! Can’t be diverting those funds.

I joke but I bought dozens of Pete Alonso 2016 Bowman Chrome auto cards last year after seeing him in the Minor League All Star Game last year.  His raw base auto Bowman’s were going off at 20 dollars a pop. I even bought the full color spectrum in psa 10 and BGS 9.5. Been selling some off but here was my set at its height this April. 

Freaking love Pete Alonso. Still waiting for his home run to come down in Minnesota. Go Mets!!

[grapeape]

5 hours ago, Twanj said:

I have to agree with mistake too. They'd never sell for $2950 what HA sold for $2270 in 2016.

There's a number of other Kirby / Alcala (attributed) stuff that was sold there too.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/jack-kirby-and-alfredo-alcala-attributed-thor-animation-cartoon-concept-illustration-original-art-ruby-spears-/a/7124-92143.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

Thanks Twanj

[grapeape]

3 hours ago, Bronty said:

No idea how you or any particular person would act but most people waiting for that day will be scared poopless by it   .   If the market tanked tomorrow and the shine came off the apple a lot of people would suddenly see the art as a little less special, and they’d suddenly have a few more real world expenses, and suddenly be afraid that things are going to fall further , or tell themselves they are going to be smart to wait for apocalypse 2 because apocalypse 1 left too much value.   

Whats the right time to buy?  When things fall 10% ?  20? 30? 40? There’s no clarity about what happens next at any of those points.   IMO some people who say ‘I’d buy more if it was cheaper’ are in fact justifying their current purchases to themselves rather than making any kind of analysis of what they’d really do if the market took a poop.   

Ie it’s easy to say that on a surface level but I think we underestimate how much of a bummer it would be mentally if the market deflated.    Whether we consciously admit it or not, rising prices keeps us interested to some degree

My window was 1996-2004. I bought at prices i'm comfortable with. With very few exceptions I won't get caught buying over FMV today. I don't want the market to collapse. Accept a cooling period and some correction. Sure? There's enough for everybody to enjoy. Bronty you always make thoughtful points. There's tons of information out there and on the boards. It's up to us to make use of the correct information.

[vodou]

36 minutes ago, grapeape said:

I'm a huge Mets fans. Love Greg Jefferies. Wow look how many cards lol. 

They used to Beckett for $8-$12 (that's the top I remember anyway), so surely a durned steal at well under $1/ea...no?

If you're not buying them all...then..?

[thethedew]

3 hours ago, tth2 said:

...people were talking big about how they would jump in big if the stock markets would plunge, and then fast forward to 2008 and 2009 when the markets really did plunge and feel all the panic and fear in the posts from the same people (who were not buying). 

The smart, brave people DID buy.  (Eventually)

[grapeape]

4 hours ago, vodou said:

They used to Beckett for $8-$12 (that's the top I remember anyway), so surely a durned steal at well under $1/ea...no?

If you're not buying them all...then..?

[Rick2you2]

20 hours ago, zhamlau said:

Yeah I’m pretty sure we won’t get there because of that, but maybe some half way point. The truth of the matter is this is all one of a kind material associated with widely known material that interests thousands of people who even in the darkest days (Assuming we don’t fall to “The Road” level collapse) would have some disposable income. This ain’t stamps. But maybe a 40-50 percent softening could occur, who knows. It would be a real exciting chance if just a price reduction to get some great pieces as folks sell off.

This assumes the same people will be in the market. Stamps died with the older generations. When the market shrinks, it will fall in slices, the way average 1970’s art has gone quiet. As people age out, the newer generation won’t care too much about older pieces and artists (although, true classics may hold up better). Plus, they have a high debt load from college and greater interest in activities over collecting. So, I don’t foresee a 50% drop in prices, so much as a hollowing out with a lot of unsold pieces priced based on older sales, and then a scary drop when heirs or the cash hungry sell.

But, cheap pieces will do okay for their decorative value.

[vodou]

1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

then a scary drop when heirs or the cash hungry sell.

Cue: endless no reserve very low opening bid LiveAuctioneers sales where most everything sells for 1/3 to 1/2 low estimate. +25% to the House

[Rick2you2]

42 minutes ago, vodou said:

Cue: endless no reserve very low opening bid LiveAuctioneers sales where most everything sells for 1/3 to 1/2 low estimate. +25% to the House

Optimist.