Are we at a peak of back issue worth/sales? 6 6

[D84]

9 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

I don’t know. I think you’re going to see super hero movie burn out pretty soon, 5-6 years. The cinematic universe is a bad idea. It needlessly punishes those who don’t follow every movie. Right now the MCU is 10 years old, but the annoying continuity porn isn’t quite that old. What happens when the continuity is older than the target audience, and encompasses over 100 movies of varying quality? How many times can they honestly reboot Spider-Man back to back before people just aren’t interested? How many super hero movies per year could a regular person possibly watch, year after year? Not saying they’re going to stop making them, but they’re definitely trying to milk this fad for all they can before the trend falls out of favor for a while. Of course it will come back again in 10 years or so, but super hero movies right now are reminding me of super hero comics in the 90’s. All it’s going to take is one billion dollar Avengers movie bombing and the cancellations will roll out. How many hits can they consistently create? As movie budgets swell the stakes get higher and higher. 

I think it will be sooner than 5 to 6 years.  Remember,  they are adding Disney+ show to the universe, which means more homework to keep up.

I'd give it 2-4 more years. 

[porcupine48]

41 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

I don’t know. I think you’re going to see super hero movie burn out pretty soon, 5-6 years. The cinematic universe is a bad idea. It needlessly punishes those who don’t follow every movie. Right now the MCU is 10 years old, but the annoying continuity porn isn’t quite that old. What happens when the continuity is older than the target audience, and encompasses over 100 movies of varying quality? How many times can they honestly reboot Spider-Man back to back before people just aren’t interested? How many super hero movies per year could a regular person possibly watch, year after year? Not saying they’re going to stop making them, but they’re definitely trying to milk this fad for all they can before the trend falls out of favor for a while. Of course it will come back again in 10 years or so, but super hero movies right now are reminding me of super hero comics in the 90’s. All it’s going to take is one billion dollar Avengers movie bombing and the cancellations will roll out. How many hits can they consistently create? As movie budgets swell the stakes get higher and higher. 

It's going to get like Dr Who.

(relax nerdos,I like Dr Who.Exterminate,exterminate)

[paul747]

2 hours ago, october said:

It will burn out at some point, but it's going to take much longer than you expect.

Nobody paid tens of billions for the intellectual property rights to Western characters. Disney is going to produce this stuff until we are LONG gone.

I have a totally different view. I believe that comics will exist but evolve. I think the new way kids and basically everyone will digest new runs and comic book stories will be thru streaming media like Disney plus. I think streaming will end up being runs and multiple stories and crossovers. Like mentioned by October this will be going on for a very long time. Comic book collecting is so much more than the rule of 25 or even enjoying comics as a medium. Comic book semi-keys and Keys are major investments now for many people. People that never even have read a comic book! Whatever medium these characters entertain in, there will always be value in their perspective key origins, especially Marvel characters and Disney. In my opinion there will be dips and climbs but Key comic books are here to stay and will only be more sought after. Movies will not matter! these companies will keep this IP alive forever.  I also believe DC will find a forever umbrella like Marvel has with Disney .. If we look at current prices and compare prices even 5 years from now, I think now will look cheap, at least for gold keys , high grade silver keys and high grade bronze keys.

[alexanderjk]

5 hours ago, 1Cool said:

I knew quite a few kids in my class that collected comics in the mid 80s.  It wasn't cool by any means but I even knew some adults that collected back then.  Does anyone know of a person under 20 who collects comics?  My teen daughter says no one in her school collects comics and she knows quite a few of the geeky kids.  I know quite a few people with teens and young kids and none of them even read comics let alone collect comics.  Are there a small number of young comic collectors out there - sure.  But the numbers would probably be shocking if a accurate survey could ever done.

I’ve been a high school teacher for 22 years and I’ve had exactly one student — and I’ve had over 3000 of them — who is as crazy about comics as I was when I was his age. There are just too many — and too many more affordable — things for teens to be entertained by in 2019. (The “nerdier” of my students read YA fantasy, play Magic, read manga, and binge on anime on Netflix.)

As many have mentioned, it’s those of us who are nostalgic for the SA, Bronze, and Copper (see: TMNT) of our formative years that are driving the back issue market. I’m predicting that when we’ve amassed our slabbed troves of childhood favorites in 9.8 condition, the back issue market will collapse, because when my now-16-year old son is in his 30s and 40s and has income to spare, he’ll be buying sneakers, “vintage” Supreme tees, and NM+ copies of Call of Duty 3 or Smash Bros. That Special Marvel Edition #15 that his dad so prizes will just be a curiosity. 

[adampasz]

1. I wouldn't bet against Disney
2. People have proclaimed the death of comics many times, but for whatever reason they stick around.
3. I don't think comparing Super-Hero movies to Westerns is completely fair. Westerns seem more like a sub-genre of crime dramas, set in a very specific time and place.

I would add that the early dominance of Westerns was closely tied to the origins of cinema in California. This is not to say super-hero movies will never lose popularity, but I wouldn't expect their cultural impact to follow the same trajectory.  Endgame and The Boys suggest there is still room for the genre to evolve and innovate in terms of story-telling.

Edited August 9, 2019 by adampasz

[lizards2]

5 minutes ago, adampasz said:

1. I wouldn't bet against Disney
2. People have proclaimed the death of comics many times, but for whatever reason they stick around.
3. I don't think comparing Super-Hero movies to Westerns is completely fair. Westerns seem more like a sub-genre of crime dramas, set in a very specific time and place.

Sacrilege.

[D84]

6 minutes ago, adampasz said:

1. I wouldn't bet against Disney
2. People have proclaimed the death of comics many times, but for whatever reason they stick around.
3. I don't think comparing Super-Hero movies to Westerns is completely fair. Westerns seem more like a sub-genre of crime dramas, set in a very specific time and place.

I'm sorry, but during the 50s and 60s, westerns were nowhere near a sub genre of the film noirs of the 40s.  They are what replaced crime dramas.

[lizards2]

Burn the witch.

[adampasz]

4 minutes ago, D84 said:

I'm sorry, but during the 50s and 60s, westerns were nowhere near a sub genre of the film noirs of the 40s.  They are what replaced crime dramas.

I would call film noir a sub-genre of Crime Drama as well. But I'll admit I'm just making up categories here. My point is that super-hero films have demonstrated an ability to succeed in a wide variety of genres, locales, time periods and narrative forms. With some exceptions, it would be difficult to make the same case about Westerns (or Film Noir for that matter) -- where the specificity of location, time period, and style are part of the appeal.

Edited August 9, 2019 by adampasz

[HarrisonJohn]

Kids are not interested in comic books, but most kids today are fans of the characters. And I see vintage comic book covers and artwork everywhere. On posters, t-shirts, toys, etc. So there is awareness of the source material. Will this generation of kids stay fans of these characters and want to own some key comics one day? Will it be trendy? IMO that's what it will come down to.

Edited August 9, 2019 by HarrisonJohn

[Hamlet]

4 hours ago, october said:

It will burn out at some point, but it's going to take much longer than you expect.

Nobody paid tens of billions for the intellectual property rights to Western characters. Disney is going to produce this stuff until we are LONG gone.

Disney is going to produce this stuff until people stop paying to see it.  I’m not sure how long that will take, but I’m starting to think they are going to have to dial it back at some point soon.  I’m actually getting tired of the movies.  I finally saw Endgame last weekend.  It was fine, but I got bored in the middle.  It was too long and frankly a lot of it was similar to past movies.  

If I am getting bored, when is the general public going to lose interest?

[D84]

1 minute ago, Hamlet said:

Disney is going to produce this stuff until people stop paying to see it.  I’m not sure how long that will take, but I’m starting to think they are going to have to dial it back at some point soon.  I’m actually getting tired of the movies.  I finally saw Endgame last weekend.  It was fine, but I got bored in the middle.  It was too long and frankly a lot of it was similar to past movies.  

If I am getting bored, when is the general public going to lose interest?

A lot of my friends who aren't into comics considered Endgame the end of the line for them.

We shall see.

[vheflin]

Given how expensive the hero movies are to produce, it won't take much drop in box office for the studios to pull the plug.

[Hamlet]

7 minutes ago, D84 said:

A lot of my friends who aren't into comics considered Endgame the end of the line for them.

We shall see.

I don’t think comic movies are going to disappear, but I can’t believe the market will support 5-6 tent pole superhero movies per year indefinitely.

 

[Lazyboy]

4 hours ago, lou_fine said:

So, are you implying that you are in agreement with this statement to the point since it's so obvious that it's ridiculous and not even necessary for it to be mentioned?

Or are you implying that it's ridiculous since it's just so obvious that this statement is not true and almost to the point of a big joke?  

It's a ludicrous statement that is extremely lacking in perspective. Most books that are newer than early Bronze may have their prices constrained by supply, but that doesn't mean demand is lower.

[RockMyAmadeus]

7 hours ago, lizards2 said:

he was walking by me in the halls one day with a "Howard the Duck for President" t-shirt.

I can only imagine the nerdboner that inspired...

[dupont2005]

2 hours ago, adampasz said:

I would call film noir a sub-genre of Crime Drama as well. But I'll admit I'm just making up categories here. My point is that super-hero films have demonstrated an ability to succeed in a wide variety of genres, locales, time periods and narrative forms. With some exceptions, it would be difficult to make the same case about Westerns (or Film Noir for that matter) -- where the specificity of location, time period, and style are part of the appeal.

CGI action

[october]

Listening to the doom and gloom in this thread you would think that the last Avengers movie barely limped to a profit instead of being, you know, the highest grossing movie in HISTORY.

Interest in the movies will crater at some point, and the back issue market with it, but I haven't seen a single sign of that happening yet. Phase 4 does seem a little lackluster though, so we will see how it goes over.

[XxSpideyxX]

8 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

It's a ludicrous statement that is extremely lacking in perspective. Most books that are newer than early Bronze may have their prices constrained by supply, but that doesn't mean demand is lower.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding either or both of you, but I think you are actually in agreement    I believe Marvel Maniac was was saying that the back issues that are in high demand now ( Gold/Silver/Early Bronze) are that way because they weren't artificially cost inflated or offered with those other cheap marketing gimmicks that plague comics today as you point out

 

[Bookery]

15 hours ago, bc said:

And somehow this hobby survives....

Precisely.  It survives as a hobby.  But comics themselves long ago passed away as a mass-market popular culture element.  Pulps are gone.  But they still have a hobby following.  Also -- Disney purchasing movie rights has nothing to do with the success of the new comics market.  Whenever these threads come up about whether comic books will survive... people mention "the movies are doing great".  Two different things.  Movies are seen by tens of millions of people.  Comics are read only by tens of thousands.  Somebody mentioned westerns.  The remake of 3:10 to Yuma was recreated as a big-budget bloodbath and did pretty well at the box office, I believe.  That didn't mean people flocked to find copies of the original Elmore Leonard story though.  The printed comic may (and likely will) die out completely, but the movies might continue for some time (until a new fad replaces them).