Are we at a peak of back issue worth/sales? 6 6

[Bookery]

3 hours ago, october said:

People waiting for a true crash are going to be disappointed. I'll be shocked if that happens. What will happen, and what seems to happen in every other collectible category as it ages, is a slow and steady bifurcation of prices. The vast majority, the 99% of less desirable items, slowly decline in value while the top 1% continue to increase. A small fraction of that 1%, the desirable rarities and top keys, will continue to grow at leaps and bounds.

It only takes a handful of guys to support the top end rarities, but it takes a ton of people to clear the market of something like mid-grade Silver Age Marvels. As the hobby contracts that's the stuff that will suffer the most.

This makes sense to a point.  And it certainly happens in other areas, like you said.  But here's something to consider.  Most collector book prices have tanked... but the best of the best still hold up.  Pulps have seen a bit of a resurgence as comic people realize they have great covers for a fraction of the price of comics.  But still, many can be had for under $20, while the "keys" keep climbing.  Movie posters have crashed... but the "keys" are still solid.

But here's the rub... in all of those above areas, the really expensive stuff exists in very few copies.  There's probably fewer than two dozen 1st edition Tarzan of the Apes in dust-jacket.  Maybe a few more extant copies of The Great Gatsby.  The most valuable pulps have just a few dozen known copies.  The big expensive movie posters sometimes have existences in single digits.  It only takes 50 or 100 wealthy collectors bidding against each other to keep those items valuable.

But in comics... especially with silver-age on... there are hundreds and often thousands of existing copies.  If we agree the under-30s aren't likely to ever collect comics... any more than any of you are likely to suddenly begin fervently collecting dime novels of platinum-age comics... then where are the literally thousands of high-end collectors necessary to sustain silver-age and bronze-age key values going to come from?  I don't have that answer.  

[october]

18 minutes ago, Bookery said:

This makes sense to a point.  And it certainly happens in other areas, like you said.  But here's something to consider.  Most collector book prices have tanked... but the best of the best still hold up.  Pulps have seen a bit of a resurgence as comic people realize they have great covers for a fraction of the price of comics.  But still, many can be had for under $20, while the "keys" keep climbing.  Movie posters have crashed... but the "keys" are still solid.

But here's the rub... in all of those above areas, the really expensive stuff exists in very few copies.  There's probably fewer than two dozen 1st edition Tarzan of the Apes in dust-jacket.  Maybe a few more extant copies of The Great Gatsby.  The most valuable pulps have just a few dozen known copies.  The big expensive movie posters sometimes have existences in single digits.  It only takes 50 or 100 wealthy collectors bidding against each other to keep those items valuable.

But in comics... especially with silver-age on... there are hundreds and often thousands of existing copies.  If we agree the under-30s aren't likely to ever collect comics... any more than any of you are likely to suddenly begin fervently collecting dime novels of platinum-age comics... then where are the literally thousands of high-end collectors necessary to sustain silver-age and bronze-age key values going to come from?  I don't have that answer.  

That's a good point regarding the relative scarcity, and I was mostly thinking of rare top-tier Gold when posting. However, I did consider the number of copies of, say, AF 15 as well....because I think it fits into that 1%. A counter example:

My dad and I attended The National card show the other weekend. He hasn't collected since the mid-late 1980's, so he was eager to see how prices had fared in his absence. He commented that they have not moved much as far as he could tell, for things like his 1955 All-Americans or early 60's Topps baseball sets. What HAS moved? A lot? 1952 Mantles. Through the roof, despite it not being rare at all. I think that's a decent parallel to books like Hulk 1 or AF 15. Comics and cards that are considered the pinnacle, transcend the hobby, and are immediately recognizable fare well somewhat regardless of supply. They are wantlist touchstones for a big majority of people in their respective hobbies. I'd put a VERY small number of books into that category though. Less than a dozen post 1960.  

[Bookery]

21 minutes ago, october said:

That's a good point regarding the relative scarcity, and I was mostly thinking of rare top-tier Gold when posting. However, I did consider the number of copies of, say, AF 15 as well....because I think it fits into that 1%. A counter example:

My dad and I attended The National card show the other weekend. He hasn't collected since the mid-late 1980's, so he was eager to see how prices had fared in his absence. He commented that they have not moved much as far as he could tell, for things like his 1955 All-Americans or early 60's Topps baseball sets. What HAS moved? A lot? 1952 Mantles. Through the roof, despite it not being rare at all. I think that's a decent parallel to books like Hulk 1 or AF 15. Comics and cards that are considered the pinnacle, transcend the hobby, and are immediately recognizable fare well somewhat regardless of supply. They are wantlist touchstones for a big majority of people in their respective hobbies. I'd put a VERY small number of books into that category though. Less than a dozen post 1960.  

A good point.  I tend to think in terms of comic collectors.  But I think there will always be collectors of key Americana.  That person who wants the Mantle card may also just want to own a half-dozen iconic comics along with other historical items of note.  The original 1942 movie poster for Casablanca is surprisingly ugly (the re-releases are better).  It also has two stars for whom the last two generations have little interest.  But it's famous for being famous.  There probably aren't enough Americans who have read all of James Joyce's Ulysses to fill a large auditorium.  But it still fetches big bucks in the marketplace. (PS -- yes, I know... Joyce is actually Europiana).

[1Cool]

1 hour ago, Bookery said:

This makes sense to a point.  And it certainly happens in other areas, like you said.  But here's something to consider.  Most collector book prices have tanked... but the best of the best still hold up.  Pulps have seen a bit of a resurgence as comic people realize they have great covers for a fraction of the price of comics.  But still, many can be had for under $20, while the "keys" keep climbing.  Movie posters have crashed... but the "keys" are still solid.

But here's the rub... in all of those above areas, the really expensive stuff exists in very few copies.  There's probably fewer than two dozen 1st edition Tarzan of the Apes in dust-jacket.  Maybe a few more extant copies of The Great Gatsby.  The most valuable pulps have just a few dozen known copies.  The big expensive movie posters sometimes have existences in single digits.  It only takes 50 or 100 wealthy collectors bidding against each other to keep those items valuable.

But in comics... especially with silver-age on... there are hundreds and often thousands of existing copies.  If we agree the under-30s aren't likely to ever collect comics... any more than any of you are likely to suddenly begin fervently collecting dime novels of platinum-age comics... then where are the literally thousands of high-end collectors necessary to sustain silver-age and bronze-age key values going to come from?  I don't have that answer.  

Being a large store owner has that thought adjusted your plans with your store (s) or is the turning point so far in the future it doesn't affect your day to day?  Just curious if that would prevent you from expanding if given the chance?

[october]

5 minutes ago, Bookery said:

But I think there will always be collectors of key Americana.  

I am interested in maybe 20 sportscards. That's it. I recently picked up my first, a 1933 Sport Kings Ruth. Guessing there are card guys who are the flipside of the coin, and only want a TOS 39 and JIM 83 or the equivalent. 

[chromium]

 I read a lot of good points and counter arguments,  here is my take. I’m a member of a few Facebook groups consisting of local, Belgian, Dutch, French and other European collectors.

Most groups have a few 100 members, and they tend to infect and educate each other, a few weeks ago someone posted a couple of  70s Intantino Flash books and now half a dozen of the members are buying and showing off these books. This happens with a lot of titles, as long as they are cheap enough.

Most are between 20 and 40 years old With the average being around 30. A lot of them have come into the hobby due to the Marvel cinematic universe and most of them but not all get their fix from TPBs and HCs but about a quarter of them buy cheap 60s 70s and 80s comics.    Almost none of them have pull lists or buy monthly new comics.

Most have no major keys, I think the most expensive book I’ve ever seen posted was a plod cgc Hulk 181 4.0 and everybody went gaga over it. So these people are true readers and collectors, the most positive thing is even if they are not spending a lot of money right now, most of them have a plan to someday own one or more of the super keys (AF15 IH181 Xmen1, TOS39, JIM83...) when they own their own house, when the kids are grown up, when they’ll have more disposable income or a better paying job. For most it will take 20 years, but I do believe most of them will try and obtain them, even if they lose interest ( and their current collection) along the way. 

[Bookery]

5 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Being a large store owner has that thought adjusted your plans with your store (s) or is the turning point so far in the future it doesn't affect your day to day?  Just curious if that would prevent you from expanding if given the chance?

No more expansions.  With over 16,000 sq.ft. now, we will definitely be looking to downsize before too long.  It's possible we may get out of new comics as early as next year (or at least just service our file customers... which is what we've already been forced to do with graphic novels and trade edition books).  Right now they are a loss leader.  As long as I decide to stay in business, I'll still deal in collectibles.  But I always enjoyed dealing in other things besides just comics.  Now that the used book market has evaporated, and young people don't seem to care about movie memorabilia... just dealing in comics is getting rather boring for me... especially since the days of having golden-age (and to some extent even early silver-age) walk in the door are just about gone.  Plus, keeping up with the dizzying almost monthly ups and downs with prices is wearing thin.

[october]

14 minutes ago, Bookery said:

 Now that the used book market has evaporated

Specifically collectible used books, or just used books in general? 

[RCheli]

I see a lot of kids at the conventions I set up at, and if they show any interest at all in comics, I'll give them a few comics out of my 50-cent bin. (I also always carry around a pile of 90s overprinted dreck -- Adv of Superman 500, Turok 1 -- that I have accumulated, and hand those out.) I also see a lot of people in their early 20s buying comics. I don't see a lot of teenagers, but I don't think that's surprising. I mean, I was comic crazy in my teens, but I wasn't going to cons then either. 

Comics are not going anywhere. 

[kidcolt]

Postage cost is another big factor for me. I don't live anywhere near a comic shop so I rely on the internet. Shipping cost to Canada is crazy, it usual add $20 more for a comic. It's too the point that it either has to be a real expensive key or I have to buy in bulk.

Edited August 13, 2019 by kidcolt

[1Cool]

44 minutes ago, Bookery said:

No more expansions.  With over 16,000 sq.ft. now, we will definitely be looking to downsize before too long.  It's possible we may get out of new comics as early as next year (or at least just service our file customers... which is what we've already been forced to do with graphic novels and trade edition books).  Right now they are a loss leader.  As long as I decide to stay in business, I'll still deal in collectibles.  But I always enjoyed dealing in other things besides just comics.  Now that the used book market has evaporated, and young people don't seem to care about movie memorabilia... just dealing in comics is getting rather boring for me... especially since the days of having golden-age (and to some extent even early silver-age) walk in the door are just about gone.  Plus, keeping up with the dizzying almost monthly ups and downs with prices is wearing thin.

Not the most upbeat discussion but I appreciate the info. 

Edited August 13, 2019 by 1Cool

[1Cool]

30 minutes ago, october said:

Specifically collectible used books, or just used books in general? 

I think he said recently that his used book sales have plummeted over the last year.  I don't remember the numbers but I believe he said the amount of sales was barely enough to justify the floor space.

[Bookery]

41 minutes ago, october said:

Specifically collectible used books, or just used books in general? 

Used books definitely.... we're actually getting out of them.  In fact... since I posted last... I was just informed moments ago that the $1 Book Swap place in Dayton just announced it's closing.  We couldn't sell hardback fiction even at $1... did only slightly better giving them away for free... eventually threw the rest out in several dumpster loads.  "Key" collector books still do well... but the market's small and you have to get the book to the collector... they won't sell to walk-ins anymore.  Semi-collectible books, old science-fiction 1st editions, limited editions, etc., have seen pretty massive price declines.  Vintage paperbacks seem pretty dead, despite the great cover art.  The book declines happened astoundingly fast... mostly in last 5 years.

[Bookery]

18 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Not the most upbeat discussion but I appreciate the info. 

True .  But to be fair... I'm still selling collector comics pretty well without having to do shows or sell online.  You have to keep prices reasonable though.  The game store sales don't increase... but are stable and profitable.  Movie posters was an experiment which doesn't seem to be working... but I haven't given up yet.  The problem there is obtaining the small amount of material that is in demand.  And the future as always looks bright for Victorian Age comics!    (okay... that last may be a slight exaggeration).

[october]

6 minutes ago, Bookery said:

Used books definitely.... we're actually getting out of them.  In fact... since I posted last... I was just informed moments ago that the $1 Book Swap place in Dayton just announced it's closing.  We couldn't sell hardback fiction even at $1... did only slightly better giving them away for free... eventually threw the rest out in several dumpster loads.  "Key" collector books still do well... but the market's small and you have to get the book to the collector... they won't sell to walk-ins anymore.  Semi-collectible books, old science-fiction 1st editions, limited editions, etc., have seen pretty massive price declines.  Vintage paperbacks seem pretty dead, despite the great cover art.  The book declines happened astoundingly fast... mostly in last 5 years.

Interesting, and sad. 

I love books, and would hate to see my local used places go out of business. 

[justafan]

6 hours ago, 1Cool said:

I think the biggest indication of a "crash" will be the number of e-bay auctions.  If that number skyrockets (especially if the number of $0.99 auctions jump up) you will know people are blowing out books.  Take a look what books are in the $2 / $5 boxes at Cons and you get a clear indication of how desperate dealers are to move stock and possibly sell at nearly no profit.  I'm in no way saying there is a crash going on but saying younger people will pick up comic books as they get older and stop a decline in prices over the next couple decades is just shortsighted.

Why 6 or 7 years for a crash?  I represent a big chunk of the collectors right now (45 years old) and I'll only be 52 in 7 years.  The older baby boomers will unfortunately being leaving us in droves in the next 10 years but there seems to be a ton of us mid 40 year olds to pick up the slack.  Speculators leaving will bring down the prices of mini key books like X-Men 221 or FF 67 but the true keys books like X-Men 1 or FF 1 should do just fine if the speculators leave.  I think we will have to look out 15 - 20 years to really see a "crash" in prices since most of the baby boomers will have left us and my generation will be full swing gearing up for retirement. 

7 years is what I anticipate as the key nexus where the number of people buying common non-key back issues and those bidding on keys will begin to decline and be outnumbered by those who already own them and are gradually trying to exit the market.  With fewer 20 somethings and 30 somethings coming in to sustain the current pricing and others trying to exit or recoup value from their collections, we'll see a gradual decline in prices.  mega keys like AF15, AC1, TEC27 have lots of insulation but they may plateau or decline a bit before going steady.  AF15, like the Mickey Mantle card, is both a status trophy comic for wealthy casual fans and a Spidey super fan must have in almost any condition. It's cover is iconic.  But I see lots of pain and hurt from some of the other lesser B and C level keys and characters that have shot up from virtual common back issue bins.

I also see pain in the niche collecting market.  I guess I just see demand diminishing rather than sustaining beyond that point.  I do see other 40-somethings like myself with an exit horizon where pairing down the bulk of our collection and keeping a few manageable keys becomes the endgame strategy.  That's the other reason some of the major keys might sustain price as they are kept or upgraded within current collections while the more common stuff is sold off.

I dunno.  I do feel like I have less and less time to enjoy reading and the pursuit of building my collection as there are just too many other demands that are drawing my attention and so that may ultimately be my reason for exiting earlier than others.  For those stalwarts, I hope it'll be a glorious buying opportunity but I suspect it won't be a fire sale but more of nabbing a deal here and there.

 

[Bookery]

Also-- lest I sound too negative... let me add a bit of sunshine.  Whether it's books or comics or whatever... yes... the number of collectors is dwindling... which means there eventually won't be enough collectors to sustain prices on routine copies... (sunshine still on its way, really).  BUT... precisely because of this there is increased demand for high-grade material.  Even the books I mentioned will sell, sometimes for record prices, if both scarce and in high grade.  Right now, as I type, Heritage is auctioning off the phenomenal Glynn Crain collection.  The original art is going very high.  And it looks like high-grade pulps and vintage books are also doing well (there are some dust-jackets in this collection I've never seen before).  The 3rd edition of my pulp guide should be out by the end of the year... and I'll say upfront that many low-grade copies have changed little in the past decade... but copies above-average have generally increased substantially.  Also art takes precedence over authors now (which may explain why a lot of modern 1st editions don't do that well anymore... the jacket art is often abysmal if even present at all).

[NoMan]

i have a friend. he's 90. has 5 buildings of paperback books. many of them rare raymond chandler first editions. same with phillip k , william burroughs, and you know, just rare paperbacks. I really worry about him. ask 100 people on the street who raymond chandler was. Oh yes, the movies. Always the movies. There were raymond chandler movies, too, you know.

I see my friend and it just seems like an ominous warning. 

Edited August 13, 2019 by NoMan

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, Bookery said:

Also-- lest I sound too negative... let me add a bit of sunshine.  Whether it's books or comics or whatever... yes... the number of collectors is dwindling... which means there eventually won't be enough collectors to sustain prices on routine copies... (sunshine still on its way, really).  BUT... precisely because of this there is increased demand for high-grade material.  Even the books I mentioned will sell, sometimes for record prices, if both scarce and in high grade.  Right now, as I type, Heritage is auctioning off the phenomenal Glynn Crain collection.  The original art is going very high.  And it looks like high-grade pulps and vintage books are also doing well (there are some dust-jackets in this collection I've never seen before).  The 3rd edition of my pulp guide should be out by the end of the year... and I'll say upfront that many low-grade copies have changed little in the past decade... but copies above-average have generally increased substantially.  Also art takes precedence over authors now (which may explain why a lot of modern 1st editions don't do that well anymore... the jacket art is often abysmal if even present at all).

how can I help my friend with his paperback collection? they are paperbacks in the hard boiled genre and what I call the sleaze genre. Think Orrie Hitt and Clyde Allison

Edited August 13, 2019 by NoMan

[XxSpideyxX]

2 hours ago, chromium said:

 I read a lot of good points and counter arguments,  here is my take. I’m a member of a few Facebook groups consisting of local, Belgian, Dutch, French and other European collectors.

Most groups have a few 100 members, and they tend to infect and educate each other, a few weeks ago someone posted a couple of  70s Intantino Flash books and now half a dozen of the members are buying and showing off these books. This happens with a lot of titles, as long as they are cheap enough.

Most are between 20 and 40 years old With the average being around 30. A lot of them have come into the hobby due to the Marvel cinematic universe and most of them but not all get their fix from TPBs and HCs but about a quarter of them buy cheap 60s 70s and 80s comics.    Almost none of them have pull lists or buy monthly new comics.

Most have no major keys, I think the most expensive book I’ve ever seen posted was a plod cgc Hulk 181 4.0 and everybody went gaga over it. So these people are true readers and collectors, the most positive thing is even if they are not spending a lot of money right now, most of them have a plan to someday own one or more of the super keys (AF15 IH181 Xmen1, TOS39, JIM83...) when they own their own house, when the kids are grown up, when they’ll have more disposable income or a better paying job. For most it will take 20 years, but I do believe most of them will try and obtain them, even if they lose interest ( and their current collection) along the way. 

Well, this is the best news I've read on this thread.