Are we at a peak of back issue worth/sales? 6 6

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

The person who loaded up on Marvel Super-Heroes #13,Eternals #1 and Spider-Gwen #1 most likely made more money than someone who bought 1 copy of golden age Batman #11.

Are you really so sure about this?

I believe it really matters when you went and loaded up on these particular books here.  

[Beige]

On 8/14/2019 at 4:20 AM, chromium said:

 I read a lot of good points and counter arguments,  here is my take. I’m a member of a few Facebook groups consisting of local, Belgian, Dutch, French and other European collectors.

Most groups have a few 100 members, and they tend to infect and educate each other, a few weeks ago someone posted a couple of  70s Intantino Flash books and now half a dozen of the members are buying and showing off these books. This happens with a lot of titles, as long as they are cheap enough.

Most are between 20 and 40 years old With the average being around 30. A lot of them have come into the hobby due to the Marvel cinematic universe and most of them but not all get their fix from TPBs and HCs but about a quarter of them buy cheap 60s 70s and 80s comics.    Almost none of them have pull lists or buy monthly new comics.

Most have no major keys, I think the most expensive book I’ve ever seen posted was a plod cgc Hulk 181 4.0 and everybody went gaga over it. So these people are true readers and collectors, the most positive thing is even if they are not spending a lot of money right now, most of them have a plan to someday own one or more of the super keys (AF15 IH181 Xmen1, TOS39, JIM83...) when they own their own house, when the kids are grown up, when they’ll have more disposable income or a better paying job. For most it will take 20 years, but I do believe most of them will try and obtain them, even if they lose interest ( and their current collection) along the way. 

Agreed.

Plus other countries are 'getting into' comics.

The Australian market is red-hot. I can't find books in the wild for cheap for love nor money currently.

Go to any market and there are 3-4 stalls with large numbers of sub 30 yrs of age buyers after what you guys classify as drek.

Show someone an Avengers #1 CGC 1.5 and they go nuts for it.

Netflix has bought stuff like The Umbrella Academy, the Daredevil/Jessica Jones/Luke cage etc etc  - and Australians are buying the cheaper back issues and slowly the keys in low grade.

Alias #1 is a $200 (?) book - but for collectors here, its a thing to show off and be proud of.

You guys have such good collections because there was a surplus of books - in most other countries (UK and Canada aside) most Marvel books from 1960 - 1980 weren't common at all.

The guys (and gals) I see at markets and auctions are buying the 'common' books - because they aren't common here, and are affordable compared to the keys. Some buyers are still at school.

Next step for most are books like a 1st print high-grade "Killing Joke", then onto 'Bullseye' or 'Sabretooth'.

Next thing 'Conan' #1 etc etc

Their goal is to get the mainly Silver Age 'top 20' Marvel/DC keys eventually.

And I believe they will.

From experience, I do better out of selling ASM run books, rather than key books because the market for the cheaper books is bigger.

That will change with incomes.

I can't see a time in the next 40 - 50 yrs when people don't care enough about The Hulk,Spider-Man,Thor etc that there isn't enough people wanting to buy the 1st apps to maintain value.

 

Pop into the Garage Sales thread and see how Laser-discs are going.Or Star Wars Stuff. Or Action Man.  

Just because people you know aren't getting into stuff doesn't mean other people aren't!

[MyNameIsLegion]

"Market bifurcation refers to disjointed market movements such as growth and value investments move in different directions or when high-quality and low-quality securities move out of sync whereby one performs much better than another."

@october & @delekkerste both referenced the term, and I've been using the same in reference to comic back issues sales for a number of years: Similar to how blue chip stocks artificially buoy the larger indexes by their sheer gravity, discussions about the health of the market are greatly swelled because of the outsides performance of specific examples eiher with certain key books or pedigrees, or grades. My take on bifurcation of the back issue market is that CGC is the culprit.  All the money in the hobby is getting sucked into 9.4 grade+ SLABBED comics and pedigrees. The same book out of the magic plastic holder can be worth 1/4 as much or even a 10th.  Buyers are driving up the price for the manufactured scarcity of have Booger-Man #1 in 9.8, high census copy.  having the 5th highest graded copy may be 1/10 of the price (even though you cracked and pressed it and the 5th is the 1st, and the 6th is the 2nd, and there's only about 5 unique copes of the top 10, but that's a whole different discussion)  

CGC bifurcated the market the last 10-12 year, making VF copies of non-keys oh so much junk bonds and penny stocks.  All the money spent on Registry sets, and collectors replacing their 9.4 set with 9.8 sets, signatures series, etc, more and more manufactured rarity and collectibility. Those guys will be greatly disappointed when their specific slab they paid 10x guide for does half or worse when they go to retire along with the rest of the younger boomers over the next 10 years. You will also kill any interest in the hobby for the younger generation because all those books are now encased in a plastic coffin instead of being read and experienced the way they were intended to be. Does anyone really expect some 25 year old, much less some 12 year old today to scoop up all your slabbed books in the next 20 years for more than you paid when they never once in their life held that raw book in their hands?  You're dreaming. The back issue market would have been a lot healthier a lot longer if CGC never existed and the prices of back issues relative to their grade and scarcity followed the normal spread it had pre-2005. Sure, you wouldn't be selling a slabbed copy of MSH#13 for stupid money, only to turn that around to buy some other hot book for stupid money, but that's my point.  Dwindling interest in runs and focusing only on keys is a function of CGC driving up prices on a very small % of books in a specific grade. That will be the death of the market.  It was enough to have competing hobby's and interests and mediums vying for a person's time and money, but now the most rabid of collectors propping up CGC have hastened their own demise in the future.  Those that cash out early with be fine, those that hold on longest will be hosed. 

Edited August 15, 2019 by MYNAMEISLEGION

[MyNameIsLegion]

1 hour ago, Beige said:

Agreed.

Plus other countries are 'getting into' comics.

The Australian market is red-hot. I can't find books in the wild for cheap for love nor money currently.

Go to any market and there are 3-4 stalls with large numbers of sub 30 yrs of age buyers after what you guys classify as drek.

Show someone an Avengers #1 CGC 1.5 and they go nuts for it.

Netflix has bought stuff like The Umbrella Academy, the Daredevil/Jessica Jones/Luke cage etc etc  - and Australians are buying the cheaper back issues and slowly the keys in low grade.

Alias #1 is a $200 (?) book - but for collectors here, its a thing to show off and be proud of.

You guys have such good collections because there was a surplus of books - in most other countries (UK and Canada aside) most Marvel books from 1960 - 1980 weren't common at all.

The guys (and gals) I see at markets and auctions are buying the 'common' books - because they aren't common here, and are affordable compared to the keys. Some buyers are still at school.

Next step for most are books like a 1st print high-grade "Killing Joke", then onto 'Bullseye' or 'Sabretooth'.

Next thing 'Conan' #1 etc etc

Their goal is to get the mainly Silver Age 'top 20' Marvel/DC keys eventually.

And I believe they will.

From experience, I do better out of selling ASM run books, rather than key books because the market for the cheaper books is bigger.

That will change with incomes.

I can't see a time in the next 40 - 50 yrs when people don't care enough about The Hulk,Spider-Man,Thor etc that there isn't enough people wanting to buy the 1st apps to maintain value.

 

Pop into the Garage Sales thread and see how Laser-discs are going.Or Star Wars Stuff. Or Action Man.  

Just because people you know aren't getting into stuff doesn't mean other people aren't!

The total world population of English as a first language is 330 million.  2/3 of that is the US, then UK, Canada, then Australia, which is 15 million (70 of the total population) If you extrapolate out what % of those are comic collectors, the number is insignificant. there's more people in India, Pakistan, Philippines, and Nigeria individually that speak English as a secondary language than all of Australia. Outside of the US, Canada and the UK combined with Oz are only 1/3 to 1/4 of the number of American English speakers. There's no way they can absorb all the concentrated comic interest in the the US.  Distance, shipping and exchange rates won't support it.

[Krismusic]

6 hours ago, MYNAMEISLEGION said:

"Market bifurcation refers to disjointed market movements such as growth and value investments move in different directions or when high-quality and low-quality securities move out of sync whereby one performs much better than another."

@october & @delekkerste both referenced the term, and I've been using the same in reference to comic back issues sales for a number of years: Similar to how blue chip stocks artificially buoy the larger indexes by their sheer gravity, discussions about the health of the market are greatly swelled because of the outsides performance of specific examples eiher with certain key books or pedigrees, or grades. My take on bifurcation of the back issue market is that CGC is the culprit.  All the money in the hobby is getting sucked into 9.4 grade+ SLABBED comics and pedigrees. The same book out of the magic plastic holder can be worth 1/4 as much or even a 10th.  Buyers are driving up the price for the manufactured scarcity of have Booger-Man #1 in 9.8, high census copy.  having the 5th highest graded copy may be 1/10 of the price (even though you cracked and pressed it and the 5th is the 1st, and the 6th is the 2nd, and there's only about 5 unique copes of the top 10, but that's a whole different discussion)  

CGC bifurcated the market the last 10-12 year, making VF copies of non-keys oh so much junk bonds and penny stocks.  All the money spent on Registry sets, and collectors replacing their 9.4 set with 9.8 sets, signatures series, etc, more and more manufactured rarity and collectibility. Those guys will be greatly disappointed when their specific slab they paid 10x guide for does half or worse when they go to retire along with the rest of the younger boomers over the next 10 years. You will also kill any interest in the hobby for the younger generation because all those books are now encased in a plastic coffin instead of being read and experienced the way they were intended to be. Does anyone really expect some 25 year old, much less some 12 year old today to scoop up all your slabbed books in the next 20 years for more than you paid when they never once in their life held that raw book in their hands?  You're dreaming. The back issue market would have been a lot healthier a lot longer if CGC never existed and the prices of back issues relative to their grade and scarcity followed the normal spread it had pre-2005. Sure, you wouldn't be selling a slabbed copy of MSH#13 for stupid money, only to turn that around to buy some other hot book for stupid money, but that's my point.  Dwindling interest in runs and focusing only on keys is a function of CGC driving up prices on a very small % of books in a specific grade. That will be the death of the market.  It was enough to have competing hobby's and interests and mediums vying for a person's time and money, but now the most rabid of collectors propping up CGC have hastened their own demise in the future.  Those that cash out early with be fine, those that hold on longest will be hosed. 

ummm… they can be opened out of the CGC holder its not permanent.... So if you wanted it raw you can a see a few people buy them CGC graded to know that the book hasn't be tampered with Resto and get pro opinion on grade crack them and keep the label so they can enjoy their raw book and if they do decide to sell later they know they can 100% with their own confidence say its not resto and the grade would be etc.. based on the previous label. 

So not really seeing your point about CGC sucking the money out of the hobby they are not a necessity they are a tool use it how you want. Ex. you need to dig a hole.. you can dig with a  shovel or your hands.. either way you will get a hole just one will be done with more work the other less.. CGC just takes the guess work out analyzing a comic to determine or dispute its grade or if resto etc.. exist. 

[Krismusic]

5 hours ago, MYNAMEISLEGION said:

The total world population of English as a first language is 330 million.  2/3 of that is the US, then UK, Canada, then Australia, which is 15 million (70 of the total population) If you extrapolate out what % of those are comic collectors, the number is insignificant. there's more people in India, Pakistan, Philippines, and Nigeria individually that speak English as a secondary language than all of Australia. Outside of the US, Canada and the UK combined with Oz are only 1/3 to 1/4 of the number of American English speakers. There's no way they can absorb all the concentrated comic interest in the the US.  Distance, shipping and exchange rates won't support it.

why not just need some oil tycoons to buy up the copies of Action comics 1 Tec 27, etc.. 

I think we forget the back copies market is finite there are only so many and if the demand could increase by interest in other markets it would drive up prices. 

when speaking about moderns or new prints then that's different but shipping a cheap 4.99 comic in a mailer isn't going to break the bank for people that really want those things. 

[delekkerste]

13 hours ago, BrooksR said:

I honestly believe that if Marvel and DC would produce inexpensive books (print them on less fancy paper) and put them on spinning racks in grocery / drug stores kids will buy them. When I was a kid in the early 80’s I would ask my mom for one every time we went into Eckerds. A big problem, I think, is that the average 10 year old kid isn’t exposed to any comics. They have to go out of their way to buy one at a comic shop. I wouldn’t have done that, or even known what a comic shop is if I hadn’t been introduced to them at the drugstore.

I think that ship has sailed.  It's simply not the early 1980s anymore - today's kids have an unlimited amount of content and distractions to choose from, much of which is free (e.g., social media and most Internet content) or pay-once and then it's all-you-can-eat (e.g., videogames, Netflix subscriptions, etc.)  Just look at what's happening elsewhere in print media - a lot of newspapers and magazines became FREE (here in NYC, Time Out NY switched to free, as did The Village Voice - not even sure that is being published anymore), and it's not like circulations soared as a result.  Many magazine subscriptions are almost free these days.  Cost is a minuscule thing contributing to the decline of print media - it's mostly due to cheaper, faster, more portable and more convenient alternatives.  Even if comics were 99 cents and spinner racks got placed in drugstores and supermarkets, I am skeptical that it would create a lot of lasting readers and collectors at this stage of the game.  

[Readcomix]

@delekkerste If Imcould add a point -- it's not just the proliferation of free media, but also self-created media -- my kids are way more interested in what friends are creating on Tick Tock or YouTube or Instagram than in professionally created media. That's an entertainment sea change that does not lend itself to underscoring any sort of collecting interest.

That said, one of my kids enjoys Archies and keeps a short box. But they have exposure to comics from me and my interests. While the newsstand ship has sailed, it was a pretty important ship in creating new collectors, of course.

I also think there's fewer dealers running LCS's that act like history teachers than there used to be. In my experience growing up, the passion of the local LCS owners for GA and SA was a big part of why I became curious enough to learn about back issues that were way before my time. (I was in grade school buying bronze off the racks in the 1970's; in high school buying copper off the LCS racks in the 80's.) That historically knowledgeable comic shop owner is another ship that has sailed, not quite to the same extent as spinner racks, but it's headed toward the horizon.

[1Cool]

3 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I think that ship has sailed.  It's simply not the early 1980s anymore - today's kids have an unlimited amount of content and distractions to choose from, much of which is free (e.g., social media and most Internet content) or pay-once and then it's all-you-can-eat (e.g., videogames, Netflix subscriptions, etc.)  Just look at what's happening elsewhere in print media - a lot of newspapers and magazines became FREE (here in NYC, Time Out NY switched to free, as did The Village Voice - not even sure that is being published anymore), and it's not like circulations soared as a result.  Many magazine subscriptions are almost free these days.  Cost is a minuscule thing contributing to the decline of print media - it's mostly due to cheaper, faster, more portable and more convenient alternatives.  Even if comics were 99 cents and spinner racks got placed in drugstores and supermarkets, I am skeptical that it would create a lot of lasting readers and collectors at this stage of the game.  

There is a huge event at a local comic shop during free comic day and I went a couple years ago with some family and friends.  We talked to the people around us and it was evident that the teens in line didn't care one bit about reading or keeping the comics and it was the event that brought them out.  These are FREE comics and kids just don't care.  For someone with a teen and teenage nephews and their friends, It's laughable to think of them buying comics and maintaining a comic book collection anytime in the future.  Everything is digital to them.  Period.  The only way I could get them excited about a comic book was to show them sold prices and say they could make some money selling books on e-bay.  Could things change as they age?  Possibly but I'd not bet on it with other people's money.

Edited August 15, 2019 by 1Cool

[Krismusic]

44 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

There is a huge event at a local comic shop during free comic day and I went a couple years ago with some family and friends.  We talked to the people around us and it was evident that the teens in line didn't care one bit about reading or keeping the comics and it was the event that brought them out.  These are FREE comics and kids just don't care.  For someone with a teen and teenage nephews and their friends, It's laughable to think of them buying comics and maintaining a comic book collection anytime in the future.  Everything is digital to them.  Period.  The only way I could get them excited about a comic book was to show them sold prices and say they could make some money selling books on e-bay.  Could things change as they age?  Possibly but I'd not bet on it with other people's money.

as long as they buy my drek for high prices 50 years from now because eBay sales are strong... 

[MyNameIsLegion]

3 hours ago, Krishosein said:

ummm… they can be opened out of the CGC holder its not permanent.... So if you wanted it raw you can a see a few people buy them CGC graded to know that the book hasn't be tampered with Resto and get pro opinion on grade crack them and keep the label so they can enjoy their raw book and if they do decide to sell later they know they can 100% with their own confidence say its not resto and the grade would be etc.. based on the previous label. 

So not really seeing your point about CGC sucking the money out of the hobby they are not a necessity they are a tool use it how you want. Ex. you need to dig a hole.. you can dig with a  shovel or your hands.. either way you will get a hole just one will be done with more work the other less.. CGC just takes the guess work out analyzing a comic to determine or dispute its grade or if resto etc.. exist. 

No sane person will crack a key, pedigree or high census copy and risk diminishing its value unless they really don’t give AF. I can think of a few on this board that would, but that’s the exception. The reason CGC exists that you cite above is what CGC marketed themselves to be at the beginning. It is not what the market at large has determined it to be and CGC has readily leaned into it because they collect a hefty fee for their services. That service is generating manufactured rarity and scarcity. If no AF15 and IH181’s were slabbed they would be considerably cheaper in all grades.HA and Comiclink would have considerably less to skim off the top bid.

[Krismusic]

1 hour ago, MYNAMEISLEGION said:

No sane person will crack a key, pedigree or high census copy and risk diminishing its value unless they really don’t give AF. I can think of a few on this board that would, but that’s the exception. The reason CGC exists that you cite above is what CGC marketed themselves to be at the beginning. It is not what the market at large has determined it to be and CGC has readily leaned into it because they collect a hefty fee for their services. That service is generating manufactured rarity and scarcity. If no AF15 and IH181’s were slabbed they would be considerably cheaper in all grades.HA and Comiclink would have considerably less to skim off the top bid.

I've seen a bit of keys get cracked out of slabs and I even gave an example of some sellers I bought from before who had Raw copies that they had previously slabbed as they like them Raw but slabbed them for resto check and grade. 

as for Pedigree and high census copies I don't think CGC makes extra money from the books being 1 out of 10 in the top 9.8 grades the uneducated market created this extra cost as many fail to realize there are a ton of books out there that these books aren't only 10 copies available there is the Voldy census as well as raw copies. 

There has been debates about the hefty fee but many assume its because there is more insurance needed when handling high value books as you notice they don't charge you extra if your $100 variant can resell for 10k they will keep your variant at the appropriate tier of 100$ value and grade and slab your book. 

Also how can they manufacture rarity and scarcity? They are not creating the comic book or the runs or prints 

[MyNameIsLegion]

41 minutes ago, Krishosein said:

I've seen a bit of keys get cracked out of slabs and I even gave an example of some sellers I bought from before who had Raw copies that they had previously slabbed as they like them Raw but slabbed them for resto check and grade. 

as for Pedigree and high census copies I don't think CGC makes extra money from the books being 1 out of 10 in the top 9.8 grades the uneducated market created this extra cost as many fail to realize there are a ton of books out there that these books aren't only 10 copies available there is the Voldy census as well as raw copies. 

There has been debates about the hefty fee but many assume its because there is more insurance needed when handling high value books as you notice they don't charge you extra if your $100 variant can resell for 10k they will keep your variant at the appropriate tier of 100$ value and grade and slab your book. 

Also how can they manufacture rarity and scarcity? They are not creating the comic book or the runs or prints 

They are manufacturing scarcity and rarity by creating the bifurcated market of slabs.  You are paying a premium not for a high grade comic that just so happens to reside in a plastic shell with a label and serial number- you are paying for the slabbed edition of the comic in that grade. An identical book in the same grade not in the slab is less desirable and cheaper. Tack on signature series where only specifically vetted signed copies of a book get a yellow label and again the same book signed by Stan not in a slab is worth significantly less. A White Mountain pedigreed labeled book in a slab is again more than the same book out of the slab from the same pedigree. CGC is much more than a grading service - that feature has long since taken a back seat to their impact on the back issue market. You’re naive to think otherwise.

Edited August 15, 2019 by MYNAMEISLEGION

[FoggyNelson]

Back issues are the only comics I buy , I don,t buy new comics an I can,t afford keys , is fun buying back issues, especially magazines😃😃

[1950's war comics]

1 hour ago, FoggyNelson said:

Back issues are the only comics I buy , I don,t buy new comics an I can,t afford keys , is fun buying back issues, especially magazines😃😃

yep, most magazine back issues can be had for dirt cheap these days still !!

[oakman29]

3 hours ago, 1950's war comics said:

yep, most magazine back issues can be had for dirt cheap these days still !!

Shhhhhhhh , dont let the whole world know about this.

[delekkerste]

On 8/13/2019 at 9:07 PM, october said:

It's unreal, and I send my dad choice auction links from time to time for us both to marvel at. People think the variant craze in comics is bad? It's nothing, NOTHING compared to sports cards. The 1/1 phenomenon is lunacy. 

Monument to Human Stupidity #1

Monument to Human Stupidity #2

Monument to Human Stupidity #3

There are, sadly, plenty of similar (and worse, much worse) examples every week it seems. 

[fastballspecial]

On 8/15/2019 at 12:41 AM, lou_fine said:

On 8/14/2019 at 2:55 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

The person who loaded up on Marvel Super-Heroes #13,Eternals #1 and Spider-Gwen #1 most likely made more money than someone who bought 1 copy of golden age Batman #11.

Are you really so sure about this?

I believe it really matters when you went and loaded up on these particular books here.  

I agree, but I loaded up on Eternals across the board and have done very very well with them.

 

[october]

16 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Monument to Human Stupidity #1

Monument to Human Stupidity #2

Monument to Human Stupidity #3

There are, sadly, plenty of similar (and worse, much worse) examples every week it seems. 

Didn't you read those auctions? #3 is a "critically important investment piece".

[Gotham Kid]

26 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Monument to Human Stupidity #1

Monument to Human Stupidity #2

Monument to Human Stupidity #3

 

Edited August 18, 2019 by Gotham Kid