GA 9.4 to 9.6 to 9.8... Observing a trend 3 3

[Cat-Man_America]

6 hours ago, Qua-Brot said:

I'll throw my 2 cents into this pool of resentment and defeat . . . yes, them there is fightin words!

First, any company like CGC that relies on public good will and trust in their ability to try to be as objective as possible (even in an area like grading that is indefinite and is more of an art than a science) it is absolute suicide for them to change their standards over the years, especially if it is tied to their other revenue streams. If this was true and were to get out into the general public they would be done in seconds. There is at least one other company that would take over in that second, and maybe another that could step up. The theorizing that they shill for themselves or change things drastically is tantamount to conspiracy theorizing (No, I do not own stock in the company or am I a big supporter - this is just basic common sense in business).

Second, the prices of comics are going up because of supply and DEMAND. It isn't the dealers or flippers or CGC who are driving up prices (though to be fair, CGC and 3rd party graders are making it easier to create tiers - i.e. grades - that are in more demand than other tiers, which does drive demand as supply seems to be low in certain tiers/grades). Dealers, Flippers, CGC et al, bag and board manufacturers, Comic box manufacturers, Con holders, etc. are merely cashing in on the DEMAND that exists for these old pieces of paper. I agree with whoever said above that this demand is being driven by the popularity of the movies and will last at least 25 to 30 years - probably 50 to 60 in actuality (figure the kids of 10 today who are loving the movies will grow to become collectors in some manner - hit their prime nostalgia/money making period in their late 30s to 40s, and keep going for another 25 to 30 years). 

There will be ups and downs. Markets are fickle, what is popular is fickle, and trends and tastes change. Who knows, there may be a run on oddball funny animal books. Or Westerns might come back. But once PCH became popular the prices were going to go up. I'm sure there are some beautiful books hiding away in collections that won't see the light of day for another 10 years or so, and maybe the popularity will have cooled off. Maybe not. But figure how popular Horror was in the 70s - Creepy and Eerie and all those Monster mags it makes sense those who grew up on it would discover the previous era of Horror - the question is will they discover Horror Pulps? But anyway, I digress. You may not personally understand the desire to own a book, or to pay so much for it - but that is the beauty of a free market - you don't have to understand it! Someone (actually, usually a few someones) is willing to pay that much for it and there you have the value. Works for any commodity - I don't get gold laminated marble bathrooms, but people seem to love them and pay a lot for them. 

Finally, the amount people spend on books relative to their income varies: There are some who are addicted and just spend. There are some who budget well and stick to their budget - if they make a lot they spend a lot, if not they don't. There are those who are retired and can spend their savings as they want. It's hard to figure out based on income how much people will spend. Look at how much people spend on a boat, or a motorcycle, or their TV or clothes or whatever. Some don't have those expenses and instead put it into comics. No boat, that's 20K. No Motorcycle, 15K? No wife - unlimited funds (no woman no cry). 

My point is that if you try to ascribe motivation by bad actors to such a large and open market you are being silly. Might as well blame the Jews for higher comic book prices (and you would be right - Siegel, Schuster, Kane, Lee, Simon, Kirby, Cole, Feldstein, Kurtzman, all Jews and had their hands in most of the most expensive books out there - and full disclosure - I am a Jew). It is frustrating when prices rise above what you can afford. person_without_enough_empathy and moan all you want, but don't start looking for the boogey man. The only thing to blame is supply and demand in a free market (and comic books are one of the free-est markets around - no regulations, we all pay what we want and have no reason beyond our own strange desires to buy these four color horrors, and no one is coerced to sell at any price). 

Thanks for reading my screed. I hope I didn't really insult anyone, not my intention, just my own frustration in general about lack of understanding about basic economics (don't even get me started on the world at large and contemporary politics . . .)

 

I applaud your analysis and concur with some of the points about markets and personal investments, but disagree with your overall conclusion and the ethnic analogy.  Profit motivation can drive most any business to make ethically questionable decisions that benefit their bottom line.  Short term gains that keep a company competitive can also conceal eroding trust that has a longer term impact on market stability.  While I'll agree with you that we should always try to avoid quick jumps to conspiracy theories, folks shouldn't be Pollyanna-ish about stuff going on right in front of their eyes either.  

My 2 cents worth is shorter ...a rarity from my typical postings for sure... and hopefully inflation adjusted for easier consumtion.  

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

8 hours ago, Qua-Brot said:

No wife - unlimited funds (no woman no cry). 

[Mr. Lady Luck]

So how many times can a 75 year old comic book withstand a pressing and cleaning before it starts to do serious harm to the book?

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

1 hour ago, Mr. Lady Luck said:

So how many times can a 75 year old comic book withstand a pressing and cleaning before it starts to do serious harm to the book?

You, my friend, are waving a red flag in front of a bull

[telerites]

1 hour ago, Mr. Lady Luck said:

So how many times can a 75 year old comic book withstand a pressing and cleaning before it starts to do serious harm to the book?

Once if done poorly.

[Robot Man]

10 hours ago, N e r V said:

Before anyone else piles on CGC too much they need to understand that grading standards in comics has been to some degree in flux for decades now with changes occurring over the years in how the general collector feels what’s most important or less important with the defects involved in any book. Stains for example have varied over the years in terms of how much of a grade hit they should take. Paper quality these days has become more important as the years go on probably because people relate it to how much longer the item has aged or getting closer to a possible end of life period for a book. Restoration views have changed a lot up and down depending on the year or books involved. The whole grading scale wasn’t on a 10 point scale originally but also we had a 100 point at one time and a no point scale in the beginning of collecting with grading getting more technical as the years went on.

So yeah, collectors should hope for a degree of stability with CGC’s standards but I think a little give is in order too since the market around them has changed since they started. 

 

 

We have no one to blame for changing grading standards except our selves. We have collectibility lowered our standards to line our pockets and The grading companies have happily followed on for the same reason. And to even have a grading company do it in their own building is a bit shameful in my opinion. The market has spoken and probably isn’t done talking as long as short term profit over takes all. 

[tth2]

20 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

My conclusion is that pro athletes are driving the back issue comic boom.

No, Gene has stated definitively that pro athletes, celebrities, Silicon Valley tycoons, Wall Street titans, etc. do not buy big ticket books or OA.

[lou_fine]

11 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

Thanks for that one. I have seen it before and it is extreme. But the "explosion" of 9.6s becoming 9.8s....not sure if that is supported by any demonstrable data.

Yes, definitely extreme as it somehow found a way to reside in a blue Universal Unrestored slab as it went all the way from a CGC 4.0 through to a CGC 9.0 while making a layover at the CGC 7.5 rest area.  

While I certainly don't play in this particular deep end of the grading pool, I would tend to agree with you that there probably hasn't been an explosion of 9.6 graded GA books becoming 9.8's.  Now, if you are talking about BA books and up, now that's a completely different story most likely although I am definitely not the person to keep track of these things.  

Although I am aware of one high profile GA book that did managed to make the jump from a CGC 9.6 grade up to a CGC 9.8 grade.  It was the Allentown copy of Cap 1 and probably the only reason why I remember it was because of the rather hilarious back story which West provided to us on how it was able to acheive its upgrade (click into the top grey area of the link for the appropriate post):

 

Oh no, it's that Veryzl guy      again for the 100th time.  We better give it to him or else we'll fall even more months behind in our TAT times.  

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by lou_fine

[MrBedrock]

59 minutes ago, tth2 said:

No, Gene has stated definitively that pro athletes, celebrities, Silicon Valley tycoons, Wall Street titans, etc. do not buy big ticket books or OA.

Gene who?

[RockMyAmadeus]

On 9/4/2019 at 11:06 AM, buttock said:

On 9/4/2019 at 10:46 AM, october said:

Have I missed this 9.8 explosion? How many books are we talking about here?

I tripped over a stack of them this morning.  They weren't there when I went to bed. 

They must be breeding. It's what happens when you put copies of Bugs Bunny and Atomic Rabbit in the same box...

[RockMyAmadeus]

Slabs can be opened. They were never meant for long term storage.  They were meant to facilitate transactions.

and

CGC didn't create a new market. They only introduced a much higher degree of assurance about condition, which persuaded buyers to spend more money to own what they wanted, which inspired demand. Slabs, by themselves, have no value.

[skybolt]

15 hours ago, Qua-Brot said:

I agree with whoever said above that this demand is being driven by the popularity of the movies and will last at least 25 to 30 years - probably 50 to 60 in actuality (figure the kids of 10 today who are loving the movies will grow to become collectors in some manner - hit their prime nostalgia/money making period in their late 30s to 40s, and keep going for another 25 to 30 years). 

 

I think that comic book movies in their current form will likely reach a saturation point in another 10-20 years. However, once 4-D becomes the movie experience norm 20-25 years from, you can basically regurgitate the same old characters and concepts to the next generation of movie goers. Can you imagine sitting in a theater where all the super hero action is happening around you, while getting a kiss from the Black Widow and a kick to the jaw by Daredevil? I hope I'm still around for this experience when I can actually have a small part in the movie. 

Edited September 6, 2019 by skybolt

[fifties]

4 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Slabs can be opened. They were never meant for long term storage.  They were meant to facilitate transactions.

and

CGC didn't create a new market. They only introduced a much higher degree of assurance about condition, which persuaded buyers to spend more money to own what they wanted, which inspired demand. Slabs, by themselves, have no value.

I'd have to disagree with that.  They may have not meant to develop another marketing tier, but they certainly did.  Just go to eBay and notice the difference in pricing -both asking and final sales- between raw and slabbed.  

[Bookery]

4 minutes ago, skybolt said:

I think that comic book movies in their current form will likely reach a saturation point in another 10-20 years. However, once 4-D becomes the movie experience norm 20-25 years from, you can basically regurgitate the same old characters and concepts to the next generation of movie goers. Can you imagine sitting in a theater where all the super hero action is happening around you, while getting a kiss from the Black Widow and a kick to the jaw by Daredevil? I hope I'm still around for this experience when I can actually have a small part in the movie. 

The great thing about 4-D movies is that you can travel back in time to an old theater and watch a better film!

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 minute ago, fifties said:

I'd have to disagree with that.  They may have not meant to develop another marketing tier, but they certainly did.  Just go to eBay and notice the difference in pricing -both asking and final sales- between raw and slabbed.  

The difference in price has nothing to do with the slab. It has to do with the assurance that the slab represents. Take the book out of the slab, and it sells for "the same" as the other raw copies in the same condition...and the "difference" doesn't remain with the now empty slab. Empty slabs have no value.

CGC neither meant to, nor did, develop "another marketing tier." The value of every slab rests entirely with the book inside of it.

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, MrBedrock said:

2 hours ago, tth2 said:

No, Gene has stated definitively that pro athletes, celebrities, Silicon Valley tycoons, Wall Street titans, etc. do not buy big ticket books or OA.

Gene who?

How dare you tempt the fates and possibly subject all of us to a long dissertation on the cons of comic book investing from our resident Wall Street financial whiz kid.    

[fifties]

33 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The difference in price has nothing to do with the slab. It has to do with the assurance that the slab represents. Take the book out of the slab, and it sells for "the same" as the other raw copies in the same condition...and the "difference" doesn't remain with the now empty slab. Empty slabs have no value.

CGC neither meant to, nor did, develop "another marketing tier." The value of every slab rests entirely with the book inside of it.

The difference in price has everything to do with the fact that the book is slabbed, and I would heartily disagree with the concept that slabbing hasn't added a higher tier to sale-ability, and that fact abounds.  

[sfcityduck]

11 minutes ago, fifties said:

The difference in price has everything to do with the fact that the book is slabbed, and I would heartily disagree with the concept that slabbing hasn't added a higher tier to sale-ability, and that fact abounds.  

I agree with both you and RMA, and think you are talking past one another. There is a clear difference in the value between a certified and un-certified book.  I don't think RMA would dispute that.  Third party grading and encapsulation has indeed created new price tiers that exceed the value of un-slabbed books.  Which is why guys like RMA and many here slab so many books.

But, the reason why that is so depends upon a single factor:  The reputation of the third party grading service.  Slabbing can accomplish two things:  (1) It puts a grade on a book that is considered in the marketplace to be trustworthy and (2) it ensures that the book remains in that grade.

PGX certified books do not benefit from the certification because that company is widely considered untrustworthy in its grading.  That same fate could befall the books of any third party grader whose reputation erodes.  So the "assurance" represented by the slab is indeed what leads to the higher tier of prices for slabbed books (by some companies, but not all).

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, fifties said:

The difference in price has everything to do with the fact that the book is slabbed, and I would heartily disagree with the concept that slabbing hasn't added a higher tier to sale-ability, and that fact abounds.  

The value of a slab rests entirely with the book. It is a mistake...quite a common one...to assume that the slab, itself, has any intrinsic value. It does not. If it did, it would have value apart from the book it contains. People pay higher prices for slabbed copies because of assurance...not because the slab adds anything of value to the book.

Thinking that the slab adds value is what causes people to panic when slabs are cracked, thinking the book has been "devalued." It has not. It's an illusion that slabs "add value" over raw books "in the same grade", because raw books are "unknown."

For example:

Book A CGC 9.0 sells for $1,000

Book A "raw VF/NM" sells for $678

Book A CGC 7.5 sells for $350

Book A raw, however, when it is graded, turns out to be a CGC 7.5....not the VF/NM it was advertised as raw. 

In that case...and this happens all day, every day...the raw "VF/NM" book that was actually a CGC 7.5 sold for substantially more than another already slabbed 7.5.  That $678 raw price was based on an "illusion" (not entirely, but functionally for the sake of this discussion...that "CGC 9.0" is an illusion, too, of a sort...but I digress) that the book was in about the "same condition" as a slabbed 9.0. 

Even then, there are many sellers...including @MrBedrock...can sell raw books for at or near what slabbed books "in the same grade" sell.

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by RockMyAmadeus

[MrBedrock]

1 hour ago, fifties said:

The difference in price has everything to do with the fact that the book is slabbed, and I would heartily disagree with the concept that slabbing hasn't added a higher tier to sale-ability, and that fact abounds.  

Not true. The price has everything to do with the book. If the price had everything to do with the slab the empty slabs would be trading by themselves.

The slab does help the liquidity of the book by quantifying the grade (which has always been paramount in determining value - even before CGC), but the book and its already existing grade actually determines the price.