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Avengers 47 vs. 48 - Which book will be the 'key'?
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29 posts in this topic

Not sure if this has been discussed already, but looking at the outcomes on Ebay, looks like Av47 is hanging in there with Av48.  I know the movie hype still has both going crazy of late. [There's a #47 9.8 up on Ebay now for only...$10k]

But, once the dust settles a little and some new movie announcement has everyone scurrying for their copy of THE NEW MEGA 'KEY' :wink:, which book do you think will emerge as the one to look for and/or pick up prior to the Eternals release?

Curiously clutching my cash...;)

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I would vote neither ...... they will both pop (as they have) and then recede after the movie hype dies down - similar to all books, but I think a bigger crash than other movie "keys" - i.e., I could see it being like Marvel Premiere 15.

If I had to pick one - I would say 48 - because of cover appearance ...... but who knows.

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1 hour ago, Hamlet said:

I'm skeptical that either is going to hold sustained collector interest as an expensive key.  I suspect that once the movie hype dies down, these books will slowly trend down as well.  I would look to Avengers 55 as the model here.

 

33 minutes ago, Chillax23 said:

I would vote neither ...... they will both pop (as they have) and then recede after the movie hype dies down - similar to all books, but I think a bigger crash than other movie "keys" - i.e., I could see it being like Marvel Premiere 15.

If I had to pick one - I would say 48 - because of cover appearance ...... but who knows.

OP said "...prior to the movie".

Avengers #55? Ultron? Their isn't any correlation movie wise between these two characters.

Marvel Premiere #15? That was a TV show on Netflix.

I think you both may also be missing some key information. It was already stated that he is going to see little screen time in Eternals. He was not brought into the MCU for one small appearance in that movie. They have bigger plans and he may have already been in Ant Man & Wasp. Not Kit Harrington screen time, but I think they will relate back to that movie at some point.

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1 minute ago, ygogolak said:

 

OP said "...prior to the movie".

Avengers #55? Ultron? Their isn't any correlation movie wise between these two characters.

Marvel Premiere #15? That was a TV show on Netflix.

I think you both may also be missing some key information. It was already stated that he is going to see little screen time in Eternals. He was not brought into the MCU for one small appearance in that movie. They have bigger plans and he may have already been in Ant Man & Wasp. Not Kit Harrington screen time, but I think they will relate back to that movie at some point.

I think the odds of the Black Knight catching fire and generating sustained collector interest are very low.  This is pure speculative hype, IMO, with little chance that it will be sustained.  Given how crazy the prices are for these books now, I wouldn't be buying them at anything remotely close to their current values.  If I currently owned them I would be trying to sell them as quickly as I could before the opportunity is lost.

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Just now, Hamlet said:

I think the odds of the Black Knight catching fire and generating sustained collector interest are very low.  This is pure speculative hype, IMO, with little chance that it will be sustained.  Given how crazy the prices are for these books now, I wouldn't be buying them at anything remotely close to their current values.  If I currently owned them I would be trying to sell them as quickly as I could before the opportunity is lost.

Correct, that is the same with any book related to a movie.

However, we have not seen any type of costume or screen time with a very popular actor yet. So, there is still time.

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The correct answer to this question is:

Black Knight # 1.

If anything, the best corollary I see (aside from the aforementioned Avengers 55) is either Detective 474 (second Deadshot, but "first modern") prior to BvS or even Batman 234 (what? 6th appearance of Two-Face but first since 1948?) prior to The Dark Knight.

Betting on Kit Harrington to move the needle long-term as the Black Knight is like betting on Jason Momoa's Conan movie back before it was released in 2011.

i.e.

Dumb.

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3 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

The correct answer to this question is:

Black Knight # 1.

If anything, the best corollary I see (aside from the aforementioned Avengers 55) is either Detective 474 (second Deadshot, but "first modern") prior to BvS or even Batman 234 (what? 6th appearance of Two-Face but first since 1948?) prior to The Dark Knight.

Betting on Kit Harrington to move the needle long-term as the Black Knight is like betting on Jason Momoa's Conan movie back before it was released in 2011.

i.e.

Dumb.

That is not the Black Knight that is going to be in the movie.

Kind of like saying Hank Pym was the star of two Ant Man movies.

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14 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

That is not the Black Knight that is going to be in the movie.

Kind of like saying Hank Pym was the star of two Ant Man movies.

Yeah - but it doesn't matter.

Which saw more of a bump from the first Ant-Man movie (in terms of real dollars):

Marvel Premiere 47? or Tales to Astonish 27?

Folks always go for the *first* appearance -- not the "first appearance of the third character to don that costume."

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This was mentioned a few weeks back in another thread but the Ant-Man/Black Knight analogy works well when it's compared like this:

Black Knight #1 (first Black Knight) = Tales to Astonish #27 (first Ant-Man)

Avengers #47 (first Dane Whitman) = Avengers #181 (first Scott Lang)

Avengers #48 (first Dane Whitman as Black Knight) = Marvel Premiere #47 (first Scott Lang as Ant-Man)

Now Black Knight #1 and TTA #27 are obviously going for more since they're older and the more scarce first incarnations of the respective "characters." But I made the point that as far as the Dane Whitman Black Knight is concerned, I'm putting Avengers #48 ahead of #47 based on the fact that Marvel Premiere #47 (the first appearance of Scott Lang AS Ant-Man), sells for more and is in more demand that Avengers #181 which is the first overall appearance of Scott Lang, just not as Ant-Man, the character that made him famous later when he took that mantle.

Edited by Illustrious
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1 minute ago, Gatsby77 said:

Yeah - but it doesn't matter.

Which saw more of a bump from the first Ant-Man movie (in terms of real dollars):

Marvel Premiere 47? or Tales to Astonish 27?

Folks always go for the *first* appearance -- not the "first appearance of the third character to don that costume."

You can't compare books like that. Especially in this market. They have different supply and buy-in points. Not everyone can afford a high end superhero key. Ant Man was pretty much announced at SDCC in 2006 (wow, doesn't seem like it was that long ago). But, was not put into full production until around 2013-14. That's really when people start to notice because it's "real" at that point.

In 2012 TTA #27 was a $7,800 in 8.0 (i just picked what I felt was a decent high end buy-in grade). 2013 it went to over $10k with one sale. 2019 it's around $17,600. 225% increase roughly.

In 2012 MP #47 was $112.50 in 9.8. 2013 it quadrupled. 2019 it's sitting around $560 or 500% increase.

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2 minutes ago, Illustrious said:

This was mentioned a few weeks back in another thread but the Ant-Man/Black Knight analogy works well when it's compared like this:

Black Knight #1 (first Black Knight) = Tales to Astonish #27 (first Ant-Man)

Avengers #47 (first Dane Whitman) = Avengers #181 (first Scott Lang)

Avengers #48 (first Dane Whitman as Black Knight) = Marvel Premiere #47 (first Scott Lang as Ant-Man)

Now Black Knight #1 and TTA #27 are obviously going for more since they're older and the more scarce first incarnations of the respective "characters." But I made the point that as far as the Dane Whitman Black Knight is concerned, I'm putting Avengers #48 ahead of #47 based on the fact that Marvel Premiere #47 (the first appearance of Scott Lang AS Ant-Man), sells for more and is in more demand that Avengers #181 which is the first overall appearance of Scott Lang, just not as Ant-Man, the character that made him famous later when he took that mantle.

Exactly.

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1 hour ago, ygogolak said:

You can't compare books like that. Especially in this market. They have different supply and buy-in points. Not everyone can afford a high end superhero key. Ant Man was pretty much announced at SDCC in 2006 (wow, doesn't seem like it was that long ago). But, was not put into full production until around 2013-14. That's really when people start to notice because it's "real" at that point.

In 2012 TTA #27 was a $7,800 in 8.0 (i just picked what I felt was a decent high end buy-in grade). 2013 it went to over $10k with one sale. 2019 it's around $17,600. 225% increase roughly.

In 2012 MP #47 was $112.50 in 9.8. 2013 it quadrupled. 2019 it's sitting around $560 or 500% increase.

Sure.

But arguing about which of these Avengers books is more key is still splitting hairs and playing 2nd-3rd fiddle to the true first appearance of the character.

Marvel Premiere 47 was essentially valueless before the announcement that Scott Lang would headline the movie -- as in, folks were collecting "Ant-Man appearances" but not "Scott Lang Ant-Man appearances."

It just wasn't a thing.

Just like the second appearance of Black Adam in Shazam # 28 was essentially valueless before the Dwayne Rock movie rumors started. It doesn't make Shazam # 28 his first appearance.

So of course the speculative % increases of the more modern will be higher.

But by that logic, if I'm speculating on the newly announced Hellstrom series, you're saying I'm better off stockpiling Marvel Spotlight 12 over Ghost Rider 2? Because...it's cheaper?

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16 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Sure.

But arguing about which of these Avengers books is more key is still splitting hairs and playing 2nd-3rd fiddle to the true first appearance of the character.

Marvel Premiere 47 was essentially valueless before the announcement that Scott Lang would headline the movie -- as in, folks were collecting "Ant-Man appearances" but not "Scott Lang Ant-Man appearances."

It just wasn't a thing.

Just like the second appearance of Black Adam in Shazam # 28 was essentially valueless before the Dwayne Rock movie rumors started. It doesn't make Shazam # 28 his first appearance.

So of course the speculative % increases of the more modern will be higher.

But by that logic, if I'm speculating on the newly announced Hellstrom series, you're saying I'm better off stockpiling Marvel Spotlight 12 over Ghost Rider 2? Because...it's cheaper?

Nope, completely missing the point. You're acting as if everyone buying has a money tree and can just buy whatever they what whenever they want.

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On 9/12/2019 at 11:12 AM, ygogolak said:

 

OP said "...prior to the movie".

Avengers #55? Ultron? Their isn't any correlation movie wise between these two characters.

Marvel Premiere #15? That was a TV show on Netflix.

I think you both may also be missing some key information. It was already stated that he is going to see little screen time in Eternals. He was not brought into the MCU for one small appearance in that movie. They have bigger plans and he may have already been in Ant Man & Wasp. Not Kit Harrington screen time, but I think they will relate back to that movie at some point.

I understand MP15 is a TV Show - my point was it will be a rather insignificant book that will pop because of new found hype and will deflate rather qickly like MP15 did (I think MP15's fall was quite quick after the show and I expect either of these books to do the same).  I actually think Iron Fist is a more marketable and bigger character than the Black Knight as well.

I just think this is an obscure character that no one really cared about (more so than other movie hype characters) and it is not going to translate well to a fan base.  But hey maybe some GoT fans will latch on due to the actor and maybe Marvel will surprise (as they typically do).

But really no point to buy this book - because even if you are a fan it is too inflated right now (so just wait) and if you are speculating it is also too late as this book went nuts.  But maybe I am missing the huge loyal following that the Black Knight has ...... who knows.

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2 minutes ago, Chillax23 said:

I understand MP15 is a TV Show - my point was it will be a rather insignificant book that will pop because of new found hype and will deflate rather qickly like MP15 did (I think MP15's fall was quite quick after the show and I expect either of these books to do the same).  I actually think Iron Fist is a more marketable and bigger character than the Black Knight as well.

I just think this is an obscure character that no one really cared about (more so than other movie hype characters) and it is not going to translate well to a fan base.  But hey maybe some GoT fans will latch on due to the actor and maybe Marvel will surprise (as they typically do).

But really no point to buy this book - because even if you are a fan it is too inflated right now (so just wait) and if you are speculating it is also too late as this book went nuts.  But maybe I am missing the huge loyal following that the Black Knight has ...... who knows.

You're not looking at the bigger picture as to why people buy these books when they do. There is more to it than the comic character. It has to do with who is playing the character. Also, TV vs. cinema is a huge difference with Marvel properties because their movies are so popular.

Anybody looked at Eternals #3 when Angelina Jolie was rumored to play her vs. when it was revealed she is playing a different character?

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28 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

You're not looking at the bigger picture as to why people buy these books when they do. There is more to it than the comic character. It has to do with who is playing the character. Also, TV vs. cinema is a huge difference with Marvel properties because their movies are so popular.

Anybody looked at Eternals #3 when Angelina Jolie was rumored to play her vs. when it was revealed she is playing a different character?

I understand the big picture here - just think this book is massively overvalued.  The character does not have a huge following - this movie is not likely to change that, and even if it does, it is likely at or near peak pricing already.  This is an obscure reach for Marvel - more obscure than Guardians of the Galaxy was - so even if we say it becomes as successful as Guardians of the Galaxy - how have any of those first appearance books fared price wise (maybe TTA13 has done well - but that is more due to scarcity - which AV47 and AV48 don't have)?  Do you see the Black Knight being more popular than the Guardians of the Galaxy ..... I think that would be tough, and those books have not held value. 

Heck MSH13 and Captain Marvel (a bigger comic character, with an on going series and a bigger actor/actress) have not held their value particularly well - and that was a $1B movie with the plan for Captain Marvel to be the face of the MCU moving forward. So not sure why someone would be buying AV47 or AV48 right now - BUT then again buy what you want and what makes you happy.

However, if the ultimate question is which one of these two books will be worth more in the long-run, I would vote AV48 - just due to the cover appearance. But I don't think either will hold value well and both are massively over-inflated price wise - so if you want the book, just wait a year or two and buy then when it is back to being a modestly priced "key".

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15 minutes ago, Chillax23 said:

I understand the big picture here - just think this book is massively overvalued.  The character does not have a huge following - this movie is not likely to change that, and even if it does, it is likely at or near peak pricing already.  This is an obscure reach for Marvel - more obscure than Guardians of the Galaxy was - so even if we say it becomes as successful as Guardians of the Galaxy - how have any of those first appearance books fared price wise (maybe TTA13 has done well - but that is more due to scarcity - which AV47 and AV48 don't have)?  Do you see the Black Knight being more popular than the Guardians of the Galaxy ..... I think that would be tough, and those books have not held value. 

Heck MSH13 and Captain Marvel (a bigger comic character, with an on going series and a bigger actor/actress) have not held their value particularly well - and that was a $1B movie with the plan for Captain Marvel to be the face of the MCU moving forward. So not sure why someone would be buying AV47 or AV48 right now - BUT then again buy what you want and what makes you happy.

However, if the ultimate question is which one of these two books will be worth more in the long-run, I would vote AV48 - just due to the cover appearance. But I don't think either will hold value well and both are massively over-inflated price wise - so if you want the book, just wait a year or two and buy then when it is back to being a modestly priced "key".

GotG books have done very well compared to before a movie was announced. Hulk 271 was found in many $1 bins when the movie was announced. Still an easy 100 bill in high grade. Same with Star Lord. Gamora and Nebula never really took off to begin with.

Once again, OP did not ask long term value of these books past a movie. They asked what book to pickup before the movie releases. And that's the Eternals movie, which I have stated he will have a small role in.

Why would you wait a year to buy? That's when the movie hype will be reaching it's peak.

Edited by ygogolak
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