Marvel #1 5 5

[D84]

52 minutes ago, szav said:

I have a hard time believing stories like this.  Most people would feel compelled to slow release the majority of their high grade copies before everyone else does it and floods the market and devalues all their copies.

Guess we’ll see in a few years, and I’ll admit I don’t have much direct insight into what’s out there, but I’d be surprised if most  of the 9.4+ books aren’t already slabbed.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.  CGC is a small part of the hobby, and most collectors would only consider them when looking to sell.

Not every collector is concerned with monetary value after they have it.

[G.A.tor]

1 hour ago, szav said:

I have a hard time believing stories like this.  Most people would feel compelled to slow release the majority of their high grade copies before everyone else does it and floods the market and devalues all their copies.

Guess we’ll see in a few years, and I’ll admit I don’t have much direct insight into what’s out there, but I’d be surprised if most  of the 9.4+ books aren’t already slabbed.

The highest graded copy from this small hoard ended up being restored. We did get an 8.0 blue. Out of the 100+ copies I’ve sold over past 5 + years, about 55- 60 came from this collector. Majority were 1.5-4.0 ish. He’s down to 5 copies. So my af15 source has dried up. 
 

that said there are many well know copies out there still raw and in apparent high grade (several in wonderful fortresses)

Edited October 7, 2019 by G.A.tor

[szav]

41 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

The highest graded copy from this small hoard ended up being restored. We did get an 8.0 blue. Out of the 100+ copies I’ve sold over past 5 + years, about 55- 60 came from this collector. Majority were 1.5-4.0 ish. He’s down to 5 copies. So my af15 source has dried up. 
 

that said there are many well know copies out there still raw and in apparent high grade (several in wonderful fortresses)

Guess I shoulda clarified.  The hard part of the story was to believe was that this sort of collection was still intact, not that it existed in the first place.  Your statement supports my notion that the money is just too big for people to ignore and hang on to all these copies. 

I likewise still have a hard time believing in tons more of high grade copies being out there in the raw.  Surely not everyone who bought these years ago is a multimillionaire that can afford the luxury of hanging on to them.  Are there a few? probably.  Are there 10 or more in 9.4 or better...seems unlikely. 

I digress sorry for derailing... In short, the last 9.6 sale was 8 years ago long before this  craze, and that one broke one million.  I'd bet on a 9.6 breaking 2 mil now.  

[porcupine48]

1 hour ago, D84 said:

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.  CGC is a small part of the hobby, and most collectors would only consider them when looking to sell.

Not every collector is concerned with monetary value after they have it.

Most of my valuable books I've had ten,mostly twenty plus years.No real interest in plasticizing them,they're fine as they are.

Edit-not that I've multi tens of thousand dollar books laying around,but I was lucky to buy cheap and early as a kid.

Edited October 7, 2019 by porcupine48

[pemart1966]

I don't doubt this story in the least.  The guy's probably been stockpiling since time immemorial.

There were TONS of AF 15s at the NYC Con just past.  I think I saw one dealer there with 4 (or more) copies.

This is NOT a rare book.   It's an expensive book, but by no means is it rare.

[tth2]

13 hours ago, pemart1966 said:

14 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

I think it is unrealistic to think that Heritage would not know the CGC history of a $1M+ comic they are auctioning.  They knew.

My guess is the $2M estimate was a typo.  Has any MC 1 ever topped $300K at auction or $350K in a private sale?  I don't think so.  But the CA 1 9.4 result makes $1M seem realistic.  That $2M was just plain crazy   The only comic to top $1.5M is Action 1.  Heritage knows this.  It was a typo.

 

That's not an insignificant typo.  I can't believe that it would have passed over that many eyes and no one catching it.  Probably a post facto reality check?

I agree with you though - there's enough experience there that "they knew".  

Who cares?  Fretting over estimates is about as productive as fretting over online bids 2 weeks before an auction closes.  

[Aman619]

and by the way, get off my lawn too!

 

[MasterChief]

14 hours ago, sacentaur said:

IIRC, the Larson copy was bought by the Walmart guy who proceeded to display it around the country thus causing cover fading. I have never seen the book, so can’t judge.

Here's another good look at the Larson Copy in its raw state prior to certification. The image is from Sotheby's Comic Books and Comic Art Catalogue, Sale 7008, June 1997.

It's a great photo that portrays the roundness of the spine, among other physical aspects. However, 5-1/2 years after the initial 1991 Sotheby sale, the UV damage is apparent and noted in the auction description. Also described are additional defects not mentioned in the '91 sale. (Perhaps the then owner caused more damage other than the UV fading?)

The side-by-side comparison below helps illustrate the UV damage. The images have not been adjusted post scanning.

 

 

 

[pemart1966]

8 hours ago, tth2 said:

Who cares?  Fretting over estimates is about as productive as fretting over online bids 2 weeks before an auction closes.  

Let me put it to you this way - the optics are not good.

[tth2]

10 hours ago, Aman619 said:

and by the way, get off my lawn too!

 

We talking estimates, not bids, not final bids, but estimates! What are we talking about? Estimates!

[Hamlet]

18 hours ago, szav said:

Guess I shoulda clarified.  The hard part of the story was to believe was that this sort of collection was still intact, not that it existed in the first place.  Your statement supports my notion that the money is just too big for people to ignore and hang on to all these copies. 

I likewise still have a hard time believing in tons more of high grade copies being out there in the raw.  Surely not everyone who bought these years ago is a multimillionaire that can afford the luxury of hanging on to them.  Are there a few? probably.  Are there 10 or more in 9.4 or better...seems unlikely. 

I digress sorry for derailing... In short, the last 9.6 sale was 8 years ago long before this  craze, and that one broke one million.  I'd bet on a 9.6 breaking 2 mil now.  

I don't doubt that there are people hoarding AF15s.  I wouldn't expect that there are very many ultra high grade books in those hoards though.  Gator's description of the hoard he was aware of seems like the most common scenario.  If someone was trying to accumulate AF15s in the 80s and 90s, they probably would have just bought reasonably priced copies whenever they could.  Someone who devoted $10k/year to that could have ended up with a lot of copies, but the vast bulk of them would have been the 1.0-4.0 books that were available on the market. 

[Crowzilla]

18 hours ago, szav said:

I likewise still have a hard time believing in tons more of high grade copies being out there in the raw.  Surely not everyone who bought these years ago is a multimillionaire that can afford the luxury of hanging on to them.  Are there a few? probably.  Are there 10 or more in 9.4 or better...seems unlikely. 

I digress sorry for derailing... In short, the last 9.6 sale was 8 years ago long before this  craze, and that one broke one million.  I'd bet on a 9.6 breaking 2 mil now.  

I lean towards this view. When HA sold a 9.4 in 2003 there were 5 total copies in 9.4 plus the 9.6. One of the 9.4s became a 9.6, but even with all the price increases, there have still only been a total of 4 copies in 9.4/9.6 added to the census in the last 16 years. That's .5% of all universal copies, or .3% of all submitted copies. This would be consistent with Gator's finding - out of a random box of 100 copies purchased years ago, the odds are that none will be a 9.4 or better.

And that was kind of my point, when the first 9.6 sold everyone said it was a crazy number. But now 8 years later it's kind of a matter of fact that it would be a million, even though there are 4x as many 9.6 copies graded. a 9.4 brings $700K two years ago when there are 5 copies in the same shape and 4 better? Name another book that would sell for $700K when it's the 10th best graded copy - the only ones that qualify are Action 1 and Detective 27. so it's uncharted territory again when one of the 9.6s finally does come up for sale.

[sfcityduck]

47 minutes ago, Hamlet said:

I don't doubt that there are people hoarding AF15s.  I wouldn't expect that there are very many ultra high grade books in those hoards though.  Gator's description of the hoard he was aware of seems like the most common scenario.  If someone was trying to accumulate AF15s in the 80s and 90s, they probably would have just bought reasonably priced copies whenever they could.  Someone who devoted $10k/year to that could have ended up with a lot of copies, but the vast bulk of them would have been the 1.0-4.0 books that were available on the market. 

Comic collecting was going strong in the early and mid 60s, and there are a lot of collectors who were collecting back then who are still sitting on their collections.  So I'm not going to be shocked when new high grade AF 15s emerge.  Many folks don't encapsulate until they want to sell, and a lot of long time collectors just aren't interested in selling yet (if ever).  Just think about it, we may never see the top Action 1, Superman 1, D27 or MC 1 ever encapsulated.  Not hard to believe that equally passionate collectors are sitting on the much more plentiful Marvel keys.

[Bronty]

1 hour ago, sfcityduck said:

Comic collecting was going strong in the early and mid 60s, and there are a lot of collectors who were collecting back then who are still sitting on their collections.  So I'm not going to be shocked when new high grade AF 15s emerge.  Many folks don't encapsulate until they want to sell, and a lot of long time collectors just aren't interested in selling yet (if ever).  Just think about it, we may never see the top Action 1, Superman 1, D27 or MC 1 ever encapsulated.  Not hard to believe that equally passionate collectors are sitting on the much more plentiful Marvel keys.

There are some for sure.    Good example is twin cities which would still not be encapsulated if it wasn't, sadly, for the fire.

 

[bluechip]

1 hour ago, sfcityduck said:

Comic collecting was going strong in the early and mid 60s, and there are a lot of collectors who were collecting back then who are still sitting on their collections.  So I'm not going to be shocked when new high grade AF 15s emerge.  Many folks don't encapsulate until they want to sell, and a lot of long time collectors just aren't interested in selling yet (if ever).  Just think about it, we may never see the top Action 1, Superman 1, D27 or MC 1 ever encapsulated.  Not hard to believe that equally passionate collectors are sitting on the much more plentiful Marvel keys.

Unslabbed and previously unknown Actions 1s and Detective 27s have shown up recently, even as original owned copies.  There are plenty of people still living today who were old enough to buy them on the stands and for each of those people there are many thousands who came of age later but were old enough to buy vintage comics for a song in old bookstores and at garage sales.   Just like there are people sitting in houses that are worth many times more than they paid and many times more than they have in the bank, it should not be assume that just because something could be liquified today for a lot of money does not mean absolutely that it will.   I mention those older books to make the point that when you're talking about books like AF15 which you could have bought off a newsstand without necessarily being so old you've got one and a half feet in the grave (though it may seem so to 20-something collectors, it just ain't so).   Factor in that many people were carefully saving old comics by the early 60s, and the fact well into the 80s you could buy used copies of the book for less than dinner and a movie, and it should surprise no one that there are people out there who know they have one haven't felt the need to cash it in yet

[Crowzilla]

I don't think anyone would argue that there aren't more AF 15s in the wild to be found. At this point AF 15 is about 15 years older than the oldest book in the Church collection when it was brought to market, and while we absolutely know there are some original owner collections older than that here on the boards, the likelihood that any of them contain a 9.4 or greater AF15 is incredibly small.

Look at the Don and Maggie collection. Both adult collectors at the dawn of the Marvel Age, and Maggie was a librarian, they knew what they were doing and made an effort to keep their books as nice as possible. But it's still serendipity which ones would up 7.5 and which ones wound up 9.4. For example Hulk 3-5 were all 9.4, but the #6 was only a 7.5.

Like I said, in the last 16 years, only 4 copies have been added that were 9.4 or better, bringing the average down to 1 out of every 300 graded and the percentage is dropping. As we know more than 1,200 copies have been graded in the last 16 years. I don't know where Bluechip eats dinner and sees movies, but by 1982 when the Overstreet Update came out it was already a $1,000 book in NM. No one was wandering into a comic shop in the mid-80s, plopping down $50 and walking out with a NM copy that they've forgotten about for 35 years. Any "new" NM or better copies in the future are far more likely to be known copies with known collectors than newly discovered ones. Lots more copies out there for sure, but not lots in NM or better.

[Chicago Boy]

13 hours ago, bluechip said:

Unslabbed and previously unknown Actions 1s and Detective 27s have shown up recently, even as original owned copies.  There are plenty of people still living today who were old enough to buy them on the stands and for each of those people there are many thousands who came of age later but were old enough to buy vintage comics for a song in old bookstores and at garage sales.   Just like there are people sitting in houses that are worth many times more than they paid and many times more than they have in the bank, it should not be assume that just because something could be liquified today for a lot of money does not mean absolutely that it will.   I mention those older books to make the point that when you're talking about books like AF15 which you could have bought off a newsstand without necessarily being so old you've got one and a half feet in the grave (though it may seem so to 20-something collectors, it just ain't so).   Factor in that many people were carefully saving old comics by the early 60s, and the fact well into the 80s you could buy used copies of the book for less than dinner and a movie, and it should surprise no one that there are people out there who know they have one haven't felt the need to cash it in yet

Please share your specifics on the AC 1’s & Tec 27’s that have shown up “ recently “ ? 

[G.A.tor]

5 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

I don't think anyone would argue that there aren't more AF 15s in the wild to be found. At this point AF 15 is about 15 years older than the oldest book in the Church collection when it was brought to market, and while we absolutely know there are some original owner collections older than that here on the boards, the likelihood that any of them contain a 9.4 or greater AF15 is incredibly small.

Look at the Don and Maggie collection. Both adult collectors at the dawn of the Marvel Age, and Maggie was a librarian, they knew what they were doing and made an effort to keep their books as nice as possible. But it's still serendipity which ones would up 7.5 and which ones wound up 9.4. For example Hulk 3-5 were all 9.4, but the #6 was only a 7.5.

Like I said, in the last 16 years, only 4 copies have been added that were 9.4 or better, bringing the average down to 1 out of every 300 graded and the percentage is dropping. As we know more than 1,200 copies have been graded in the last 16 years. I don't know where Bluechip eats dinner and sees movies, but by 1982 when the Overstreet Update came out it was already a $1,000 book in NM. No one was wandering into a comic shop in the mid-80s, plopping down $50 and walking out with a NM copy that they've forgotten about for 35 years. Any "new" NM or better copies in the future are far more likely to be known copies with known collectors than newly discovered ones. Lots more copies out there for sure, but not lots in NM or better.

I think torpedo got an oo 9.4 af15 in last few months? Likely exception, but there probably are a few more out there (As you stated, likely fraction of a %)

[Bronty]

6 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

I don't think anyone would argue that there aren't more AF 15s in the wild to be found. At this point AF 15 is about 15 years older than the oldest book in the Church collection when it was brought to market, and while we absolutely know there are some original owner collections older than that here on the boards, the likelihood that any of them contain a 9.4 or greater AF15 is incredibly small.

Look at the Don and Maggie collection. Both adult collectors at the dawn of the Marvel Age, and Maggie was a librarian, they knew what they were doing and made an effort to keep their books as nice as possible. But it's still serendipity which ones would up 7.5 and which ones wound up 9.4. For example Hulk 3-5 were all 9.4, but the #6 was only a 7.5.

Like I said, in the last 16 years, only 4 copies have been added that were 9.4 or better, bringing the average down to 1 out of every 300 graded and the percentage is dropping. As we know more than 1,200 copies have been graded in the last 16 years. I don't know where Bluechip eats dinner and sees movies, but by 1982 when the Overstreet Update came out it was already a $1,000 book in NM. No one was wandering into a comic shop in the mid-80s, plopping down $50 and walking out with a NM copy that they've forgotten about for 35 years. Any "new" NM or better copies in the future are far more likely to be known copies with known collectors than newly discovered ones. Lots more copies out there for sure, but not lots in NM or better.

Well sure Sean... agree totally.   However even the number of 9.4 copies will not be zero.

This Heritage signature is the perfect example.   8.5, 9.4, 9.6 1962 original owner ‘Shasta Lake’ marvels .   Pre heros not AF15, but there is no real scarcity difference IMO between a 9.4 pre hero and a 9.4 AF 15 - and if anything the pre hero will probably tend to be slightly scarcer IMO (although a NM 1962 hero and a NM 1962 pre hero are pretty comparable for Hg scarcity  ).

I didn’t look to see if there are hero books in the collection or inquire about it, but there probably would be, just like the White Mountain pre hero runs kept going into the hero books.   Perhaps they’ve already been snagged or not for sale?

Point is, if people still occasionally turn up NM marvel pre heroes, they will certainly turn up NM hero keys occasionally as well, because if anything, the hero keys were better preserved.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Bronty

[lou_fine]

On 10/7/2019 at 12:05 AM, sfcityduck said:

On 10/6/2019 at 4:03 PM, MasterChief said:

Okay... I think I get it now.

So, the date of the press release indicates it was drafted sometime prior to the board's discovery that the book was a previous 8.5—>9.0 copy. The advert was most probably written based on the premise it was a new-to-market, never seen before original condition 9.4 copy. Therefore, the $2M estimate reflected same. However, once Heritage realized the jig was up, the estimate was adjusted to reflect a forecasted market value for an 8.5/9.0 copy.

Makes sense.  

I think it is unrealistic to think that Heritage would not know the CGC history of a $1M+ comic they are auctioning.  They knew.

My guess is the $2M estimate was a typo.  Has any MC 1 ever topped $300K at auction or $350K in a private sale?  I don't think so.  But the CA 1 9.4 result makes $1M seem realistic.  That $2M was just plain crazy   The only comic to top $1.5M is Action 1.  Heritage knows this.  It was a typo.

 

On 10/7/2019 at 12:50 AM, pemart1966 said:

That's not an insignificant typo.  I can't believe that it would have passed over that many eyes and no one catching it.  Probably a post facto reality check?

I agree with you though - there's enough experience there that "they knew".  

I would tend to agree that Heritage most definitely knew the history of the book. 

At the same time though, i do not believe they would have made the same typo twice in their original advertisement and spin job on the book.  To me, that is totally unbelievable a mistake of this magnitude would not have been caught before the ad went out.

I think what happened here is that Heritage did know about the history of the book, but was banking on the hope that nobody else would know about the history of the book.  So, it would appear that Masterchief's outing of this particular copy is going to cost the consignor of this book a significant amount of dollars here.  Or at least that's the way that I see the picture of what took place here.