When will the next unrestored Tec #27 come to auction? 6 6

[sfcityduck]

31 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

I feel people forget there are buyers out there who have insane funds, but locked up in books. So do they have a million to spend at this moment, maybe not, but can they sell a bunch to have the funds to do so and go on a payment plan, yes I think so. 

If your wealth comprises comic books, than you don't have "insane funds."  And you might not want to sell.  My old LCS owner has well over $1M in GA comics no doubt.  But, he loves his comics more than he loves green pieces of paper.  He would rather show off comics than a fancy new car.  And he's not alone.  There's a lot of folks sitting on GA keys who could never afford to buy them now.  Yet, they don't sell. Because the money is not that important to those folks. For them, the price appreciation was a validation that their comic book collecting was not entirely geeky as it was financially smart.  But at heart they are far more comic geeks more than comic investors.  And, those folks, like my old LCS owner, may well already have the GA keys that could sell over $1M.

Edited October 20, 2020 by sfcityduck

[Gotham Kid]

18 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

My old LCS owner has well over $1M in GA comics no doubt.  But, he loves his comics more than he loves green pieces of paper.  He would rather show off comics... 

has he ?

Edited October 20, 2020 by Gotham Kid

[LDarkseid1]

20 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

If your wealth comprises comic books, than you don't have "insane funds."  And you might not want to sell.  My old LCS owner has well over $1M in GA comics no doubt.  But, he loves his comics more than he loves green pieces of paper.  He would rather show off comics than a fancy new car.  And he's not alone.  There's a lot of folks sitting on GA keys who could never afford to buy them now.  Yet, they don't sell. Because the money is not that important to those folks. For them, the price appreciation was a validation that their comic book collecting was not entirely geeky as it was financially smart.  But at heart they are far more comic geeks more than comic investors.  And, those folks, like my old LCS owner, may well already have the GA keys that could sell over $1M.

That's definitely one kind of person for sure, as far as your friend goes. Also, I'm not saying their comics in my example is the full expanse of their wealth, but should they need to get rid of them they could to fund other purchases. I know of a couple people who aren't collectors like your old comic shop owner, who are more on the investment side. They own massive silver age and golden age books, and have sold to fund other books. So those people do exist more than you may know. I'd say they are likely more on the level of spending hundreds of thousands, and less in the millions, but I have to believe there are people out there like them on a higher level. That could sell big books to fund a bigger book if they wanted.

Edited October 20, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[LDarkseid1]

34 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

I know of only 8 public comic book transactions where the price exceeded $1M and those were not to 8 different buyers.  Those involved four different Actions 1s (8.0, same 8.5 twice, 9.0 Cage and 9.0 white) with the top two of those to the same buyer.  It also involved an AF 15 (9.6) back in 2011 that seems like it may be overly high now.  The remaining books were the MC 1 (9.4) and D27 (8.0).  While there probably have been "secret" sales I don't know about, the pool of people who have paid over $1M (ignoring pass through dealers buying on behalf of a client like Metro) is likely less than 8 active collectors since I believe that the 8.5 Action was sold the second time after the original buyer died and Hariri is now reportedly on the sidelines.  There could be no more than 6 or less active collectors who have paid $1M+ for a comic (again excluding dealers who bought on behalf of a client).

Well, if there really only is 6 people out there that will spend a million or more on a comic then yeah I guess it's a tiny pool.

[sfcityduck]

Just now, Gotham Kid said:

has he ?

Yes.  His Action 1 and select copies from his collection have been posted on this board.  His collection is vast.  Examples:

[Gotham Kid]

Holy cow, that AC1 looks amazing ! If it is unrestored it can certainly measure up to Hariri's copies.

Edited October 20, 2020 by Gotham Kid

[Gotham Kid]

2 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

His Action 1 and select copies from his collection have been posted on this board.

do you have the link please or tell me the name of the thread ?

much appreciated.

[sfcityduck]

18 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

Holy cow, that AC1 looks amazing ! If it is unrestored it can certainly measure up to Hariri's copies.

It's not quite that good.  Conserved.  But, I know he has gotten serious offers for it in the high six figures, at least one from someone who has posted on this board.

[LDarkseid1]

10 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

It's not quite that good.  Conserved.  But, I know he has gotten serious offers for it in the high six figures, at least one from someone who has posted on this board.

Makes sense. Not sure what the level of conservation is, but that conserved 7.0 sold for $450K on comiclink in 2018 and his looks considerably nicer. So high 6 figures definitely feels very accurate.

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, LDarkseid1 said:

Makes sense. Not sure what the level of conservation is, but that conserved 7.0 sold for $450K on comiclink in 2018 and his looks considerably nicer. So high 6 figures definitely feels very accurate.

The copy was held by an OO for 42 years until 1980, then auctioned by Collectors Showcase as a VF in a sealed bid format to my old LCS owner who has held it for 40 years.  He had a tear sealed (removable) and a spot of grease cleaned (not immersion cleaned, spot cleaned) and that's it I think.  The PQ is White.  The VF grade from back then seems a bit low, but then again I think the Cage copy was graded as a VF when sold by Sotheby's and later as a CGC 9.0.

[LDarkseid1]

7 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

The copy was held by an OO for 42 years until 1980, then auctioned by Collectors Showcase as a VF in a sealed bid format to my old LCS owner who has held it for 40 years.  He had a tear sealed (removable) and a spot of grease cleaned (not immersion cleaned, spot cleaned) and that's it I think.  The PQ is White.  The VF grade from back then seems a bit low, but then again I think the Cage copy was graded as a VF when sold by Sotheby's and later as a CGC 9.0.

It’s definitely gorgeous that’s for sure! That white area behind the title is amazing.

[Wayne-Tec]

I’m not sold on Action #1 remaining this far ahead of Tec #27 forever.

[KCOComics]

8 hours ago, LDarkseid1 said:

This is definitely one of the aspects of this industry that has always intrigued me. When you say tiny pool, how tiny exactly is the pool? Is it assumed Hariri, and less than a handful of buyers exist out there willing to spend over a mil to buy a comic? I guess some big dealers are on that list, who are on these boards. Or is it more like 100 people? Also, I feel people forget there are buyers out there who have insane funds, but locked up in books. So do they have a million to spend at this moment, maybe not, but can they sell a bunch to have the funds to do so and go on a payment plan, yes I think so. So between buyers who straight up have millions to spend and buyers who could sell books in upcoming auctions to fund a book of this magnitude, I think there's maybe a decent amount out there.

I'm really interested about this as well. I would be curious to hear from some of the bigger dealers about how many buyers realistically exist in that $750k + range. 

 

[LDarkseid1]

24 minutes ago, KCOComics said:

I'm really interested about this as well. I would be curious to hear from some of the bigger dealers about how many buyers realistically exist in that $750k + range. 

 

Truthfully the notion that there’s only 6 or less people in the world willing to spend more than a million dollars on a comic book baffles me. There’s roughly 19 million people in the US who are millionaires and almost 50 million people worldwide. So out of 50 million people who are millionaires, only 6 or less invest in expensive comics at that level?! Just seems like a tough pill to swallow that only .00000012% of people are that level of buyers, but I get the justification for it based off the few sales over a mil and who’s purchased. But still.

Edited October 21, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[KCOComics]

6 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

Truthfully the notion that there’s only 6 or less people in the world willing to spend more than a million dollars on a comic book baffles me. There’s roughly 19 million people in the US who are millionaires and almost 50 million people worldwide. So out of 50 million people who are millionaires, only 6 or less invest in expensive comics at that level?! Just seems like a tough pill to swallow that only .00000012% of people are that level of buyers, but I get the justification for it based off the few sales over a mil and who’s purchased. But still.

With no evidence or research, I'm guessing there are a few hundred people who see an Action 1 come to market and realistically consider buying it. 

Some of those people may have to free up assets (selling comics) and others may have the cash flow, but I have to believe there are many real players for those books and some even on these boards. 

[sfcityduck]

31 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

There’s roughly 19 million people in the US who are millionaires and almost 50 million people worldwide. So out of 50 million people who are millionaires, only 6 or less invest in expensive comics at that level?! Just seems like a tough pill to swallow that only .00000012% of people are that level of buyers, but I get the justification for it based off the few sales over a mil and who’s purchased. But still.

Where I live, millionaires are literally a dime a dozen.  There are over 120,000+ millionaires in SF and Oakland, two cities that collectively have about 1,200,000 residents.  But, most are just middle class folks who are not dropping $1,000,000 into anything other than safe retirement investments.  Being a millionaire does not mean you have a million you are willing to drop on a comic book.

Edited October 21, 2020 by sfcityduck

[tth2]

36 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

Truthfully the notion that there’s only 6 or less people in the world willing to spend more than a million dollars on a comic book baffles me. There’s roughly 19 million people in the US who are millionaires and almost 50 million people worldwide. So out of 50 million people who are millionaires, only 6 or less invest in expensive comics at that level?! Just seems like a tough pill to swallow that only .00000012% of people are that level of buyers, but I get the justification for it based off the few sales over a mil and who’s purchased. But still.

It's funny how we can all see the same thing and draw completely different conclusions.  I can't believe there are as many as 6 people willing to spend more than $1m on a comic!

[tth2]

8 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

38 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

There’s roughly 19 million people in the US who are millionaires and almost 50 million people worldwide. So out of 50 million people who are millionaires, only 6 or less invest in expensive comics at that level?! Just seems like a tough pill to swallow that only .00000012% of people are that level of buyers, but I get the justification for it based off the few sales over a mil and who’s purchased. But still.

Where I live, millionaires are literally a dime a dozen.  There are over 120,000+ millionaires in SF and Oakland, two cities that collectively have about 1,200,000 residents.  But, most are just middle class folks who are not dropping $1,000,000 into anything other than safe retirement investments.  Being a millionaire does not mean you have a million you are willing to drop on a comic book.

Exactly.  Being a millionaire doesn't mean what it used to mean, and much of it is probably not liquid. 

To change the scale a bit to make it a bit more understandable, if your total worth is $150k, are you going to go and buy $100k books?  Or even $50k books?  Probably not.  Your net worth probably needs to be at least several multiples of any collectible that you'd be willing to buy.

[LDarkseid1]

What I’ve learned from this conversation is I’m convinced this book is going to break a million.

[Professor K]

35 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

What I’ve learned from this conversation is I’m convinced this book is going to break a million.

Me too. I think it will end between ONE MILLION DOLLARS! and a little over 1.1 million.  To quote Number Two some 20 years ago - "A million dollars isn't exactly a lot of money these days". There are a lot of very very rich people out there and I think at least two of them will be willing to dish out at least a million on this one especially considering how rare one of this grade comes around.