Optimistic Pricing 1 1

[bisquitodoom]

3 hours ago, The Voord said:

First appearance of Harry Potter page?  I'm thinking Donnelly school of selling  . . .

Looks like 5 unpublished covers on one board to me.  Just have to add the trade dress...

Edited December 23, 2019 by bisquitodoom

[NC101]

Being new to this hobby I've been pretty obsessed with learning as much as I can over the past month or so - I came across this article about bubbling in the fine art market and it sounded kind of similar to some things I've been reading about OA right now: https://www.artbusiness.com/orwxb.html

It goes into more detail, but some signs of an art bubble it mentions include things like pricing based on speculation rather than past performance, flipping, and rapid price increases. I'm starting to think that OA is in a little bit of a bubble right now, and I might just hold off on collecting much until it pops.

Edited December 23, 2019 by NewCollector101

[grapeape]

5 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

So you agree the price seems way too high?

I do think they are asking too much. 

I think it’s a very pretty page. It would have to have a nostalgic component of epic proportions to pull that kind of money from me. It’s not there.

If you can trade favorably maybe, to get the cash ask way down. That’s something I forgot to mention.
Many crazy prices are based on assumptions.

1) That those interested will try to negotiate down

2) Will try to involve trade

3) I think at $6500 Max is where I could be simply as a collector of shiny things.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2019 by grapeape

[comix4fun]

5 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

Why not just comment on the pricing?

Because, while I've enjoyed Sandman over the years, and noticed what many pieces have sold for and how the market has exploded exponentially in the last few years I don't think I can tell if this is a modest or immodest premium attached to it. 

[ESeffinga]

As someone who follows that market super closely, I don’t think it’s out of bounds at all? Is it on the high side? Sure. I would have thought in the 8-9K range, since not the main Sandman title, but it also is painted and it is a beautiful example image for the golden era of Sandman pages, by the original author and one of its award winning artists. I don’t think the fact that it is from the Books of Magic mini-series (which was much loved by Sandman fans) is too much of a minus. And I have been offered money in this ballpark for my Sandman pages, years ago. So,  this much, at this point, in this Sandman market?

 

I don’t know what $3500 comps you are trying to use, but you are way off base, if you think this should be in that ballpark. If you are referencing the Shakespeare only page, that’s like comparing a page from a Spidey book of spidey in action vs a random J Jonah only talking to a phone page. That’s dumb.

I think Morpheus Vess pages in Sandman proper, tend to be in the 10-20k range when they trade hands privately today. I can’t speak to the auctions, because I have found far more fluctuations, and I attribute that to who shows up on that day.

 

If I remember right, Saunter sold 2 pages of issue 19 with no Morpheus on either page, just his black text balloons, for 10-12k each about a year or two ago, when he was raising cash for something.

Edited December 23, 2019 by ESeffinga

[miraclemet]

While everyone is right that it's just a case of "if you don't like the price just keep swimming"  and "an asking price isnt the market price" it does make me concerned about one thing. 

Even though an asking price doesnt set the market, if can influence the market, especially for the uninformed. We see this all the time in comics. Some sky high BIN book leads to someone trying to get close to their for their copy even though the market hasnt agreed that this is the value. It then turns into work for the (potential) buyer to try an educate the uninformed seller in an effort to actually make a market-reasonable transaction. And in many of those cases the would-be seller walks away complaining that the potential buyer was trying to 'rip them off" 

with fewer (or none) of these sky high BINs, Wouldnt transactions be more likely to occur? If ebay (and CAF and other markets) only existed as auctions and completed transactions life (as a buyer) would be much easier. Yes we as sellers would miss out on the occasional "big fish" sale, but the benefit to the market as an ecosystem might be better. 

 

[Rick2you2]

1 hour ago, ESeffinga said:

As someone who follows that market super closely, I don’t think it’s out of bounds at all? Is it on the high side? Sure. I would have thought in the 8-9K range, since not the main Sandman title, but it also is painted and it is a beautiful example image for the golden era of Sandman pages, by the original author and one of its award winning artists. I don’t think the fact that it is from the Books of Magic mini-series (which was much loved by Sandman fans) is too much of a minus. And I have been offered money in this ballpark for my Sandman pages, years ago. So,  this much, at this point, in this Sandman market?

 

I don’t know what $3500 comps you are trying to use, but you are way off base, if you think this should be in that ballpark. If you are referencing the Shakespeare only page, that’s like comparing a page from a Spidey book of spidey in action vs a random J Jonah only talking to a phone page. That’s dumb.

I think Morpheus Vess pages in Sandman proper, tend to be in the 10-20k range when they trade hands privately today. I can’t speak to the auctions, because I have found far more fluctuations, and I attribute that to who shows up on that day.

 

If I remember right, Saunter sold 2 pages of issue 19 with no Morpheus on either page, just his black text balloons, for 10-12k each about a year or two ago, when he was raising cash for something.

As I wrote initially, this thread is partly intended to educate, not draw derision. The closest analog in terms of time that I found was the auctioned page I mentioned above on Heritage. Personally, I think the price is quite high, based on published prices and even some published offers on other material, but I am not aware of what private sellers buy and sell them for. I would think it should be closer to 6-7k, but I would not spend my money on it at that price. I don’t love it, and to me, that is real money.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Rick2you2

[ESeffinga]

Well, I could say that last bit about a LOT of art people spend 5 and 6 figures for, and even cheaper material including Phantom Stanger pages, but it doesn’t mean others don’t park their money there. I don’t have to like it or agree with it, or even totally understand it. It’s all relative.

[Rick2you2]

4 hours ago, NewCollector101 said:

Being new to this hobby I've been pretty obsessed with learning as much as I can over the past month or so - I came across this article about bubbling in the fine art market and it sounded kind of similar to some things I've been reading about OA right now: https://www.artbusiness.com/orwxb.html

It goes into more detail, but some signs of an art bubble it mentions include things like pricing based on speculation rather than past performance, flipping, and rapid price increases. I'm starting to think that OA is in a little bit of a bubble right now, and I might just hold off on collecting much until it pops.

You aren’t the first to comment on the possibility of us being in the early stages of tulip mania. Go over the threads, and there is a lot of concern on the subject, which some boardies take seriously and others ignore. I only spend money on this stuff that I can easily afford.

I have said this before, but in my mind, a lot of the newer stuff is high quality. The pricing on older stuff is often nostalgia driven, which only lasts so long as those with nostalgia are alive. Bottle cap collectors, anyone?

You can get a lot of pleasure out of this hobby by buying things for less than $1,000. My favorite piece, and by no means my most valuable, or desirable to others, was only $600. 

[Rick2you2]

3 minutes ago, ESeffinga said:

Well, I could say that last bit about a LOT of art people spend 5 and 6 figures for, and even cheaper material including Phantom Stanger pages, but it doesn’t mean others don’t park their money there. I don’t have to like it or agree with it, or even totally understand it. It’s all relative.

But, discussing and debating relative pricing is still fair game, even if someone doesn’t want to buy it. There are people here who have extraordinary knowledge on this subject; I would hope they share it.

[Unstoppablejayd]

20 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

I would think it should be closer to 6-7k, but I would not spend my money on it at that price. I don’t love it, and to me, that is real money.

So 40/50% over what you think is market price? I think you can go onto a list of dealers websites and find tons of pieces in that range. Does that make the dealers out there all optimistic pricers? Are they not moving pieces?

I have paid 40% over what I think is perceived market on pieces I loved... and the other issue is what is available on the market at your perceived value .. these are not slabbed comics where you can google ten of the same available at any time.

[vodou]

Can we get back to the red hot Rik Levins market, please?

[Rick2you2]

5 hours ago, Unstoppablejayd said:

So 40/50% over what you think is market price? I think you can go onto a list of dealers websites and find tons of pieces in that range. Does that make the dealers out there all optimistic pricers? Are they not moving pieces?

I have paid 40% over what I think is perceived market on pieces I loved... and the other issue is what is available on the market at your perceived value .. these are not slabbed comics where you can google ten of the same available at any time.

You are missing the point of this thread. Read the OP again.

[Unstoppablejayd]

20 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

You are missing the point of this thread. Read the OP again.

I just re read it.. and forgetting about the piece you mentioned. My point is that as I noted on most dealer sites that is the norm above comps on "good" material. SO my question to you is are dealers engaging in optimistic pricing? 

For example, on romitaman (sorry but it is off the top of my head and something I am more versed in) there was a Silvestri run Uncanny page for 1500 (which sold in a matter of days) yet if you look at auction results and such they seem to be running 500-1000 depending on content... so there is the exact spread you spoke of as opportunistic pricing.

Hence if dealers are doing it.. and moving the pieces wouldn't that then indicate that that is the market?

[vodou]

17 minutes ago, Bill C said:

the all-time classic "Cap Wolf" saga.  

Never should have sold that cover. $50k now. Easy. I could trade it for a vacation spot in tax haven Monaco.

[Rick2you2]

7 minutes ago, Unstoppablejayd said:

I just re read it.. and forgetting about the piece you mentioned. My point is that as I noted on most dealer sites that is the norm above comps on "good" material. SO my question to you is are dealers engaging in optimistic pricing? 

For example, on romitaman (sorry but it is off the top of my head and something I am more versed in) there was a Silvestri run Uncanny page for 1500 (which sold in a matter of days) yet if you look at auction results and such they seem to be running 500-1000 depending on content... so there is the exact spread you spoke of as opportunistic pricing.

Hence if dealers are doing it.. and moving the pieces wouldn't that then indicate that that is the market?

If that is the market for a particular piece, then that’s the answer. But there are also a lot of pieces I see listed by dealers, in some cases for years, and they don’t move. So a listed price doesn’t really answer the question. I would expect dealers to leave extra price room for both negotiation and extra profit.
Also, percentages are not really relative. A 50% differential on a $1,500 piece is just $750. On an $11,000 piece, it’s a lot more money. 

[grapeape]

24 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

You are missing the point of this thread. Read the OP again.

Rick is simply trying to determine a reasonable price to pay for this page. 
Grape ape says $6500.

Why? Great page. Artistically. Eric (ESeff) $8-$9 K not completely off. For me the largest panel, the first top left your “money” panel that should justify $11 K....has the main man with his back to the observer.

Artistic crime? Absurd. No way...the flow of the story. Vess knows what’s what.

Does it hurt when you’re trying to grail tax me at $11 k? Hell yeah. That’s the panel that should make me hand over the money without arguing. I want the main character burning my soul with a large full panel face forward. Vess didn’t draw it that way.

Artistically? Beautiful

Top dollar? Not from me
 

Also—premium tax always goes to the book title folks most associate the character-artist with. That’s the nostalgia intangible unrelated to the actual art itself. Wether that’s fair or not you must consider that when you spend your money. Unless money is no object.

Also this is not a shot at the rep (we like him) or the consignor(thanks for making the page available)

Rick gets that you can ask any price you want. That you can pay any price you want. Rick if I’m taking your position on this for granted chime in.

Its just about trying to make sense of this crazy art world. One thing to consider. If this page is a grail for anybody on here keep quiet and go for it. The luck I’ve had 9 out of 10 times when you see an opportunity and let it pass, it will cost you at least double.

Or good grief, if it falls into the hands of Los Hermanos de Fair Market Value multiplied by X 3 Inquire squared.

 

 

[Rick2you2]

1 hour ago, grapeape said:

Rick is simply trying to determine a reasonable price to pay for this page. 
Grape ape says $6500.

Why? Great page. Artistically. Eric (ESeff) $8-$9 K not completely off. For me the largest panel, the first top left your “money” panel that should justify $11 K....has the main man with his back to the observer.

Artistic crime? Absurd. No way...the flow of the story. Vess knows what’s what.

Does it hurt when you’re trying to grail tax me at $11 k? Hell yeah. That’s the panel that should make me hand over the money without arguing. I want the main character burning my soul with a large full panel face forward. Vess didn’t draw it that way.

Artistically? Beautiful

Top dollar? Not from me
 

Also—premium tax always goes to the book title folks most associate the character-artist with. That’s the nostalgia intangible unrelated to the actual art itself. Wether that’s fair or not you must consider that when you spend your money. Unless money is no object.

Also this is not a shot at the rep (we like him) or the consignor(thanks for making the page available)

Rick gets that you can ask any price you want. That you can pay any price you want. Rick if I’m taking your position on this for granted chime in.

Its just about trying to make sense of this crazy art world. One thing to consider. If this page is a grail for anybody on here keep quiet and go for it. The luck I’ve had 9 out of 10 times when you see an opportunity and let it pass, it will cost you at least double.

Or good grief, if it falls into the hands of Los Hermanos de Fair Market Value multiplied by X 3 Inquire squared.

 

 

Actually, you pretty much nailed it. A couple of other items. The page has nicely balanced panels.  Notice how well panel 1 plays off against panel 5, right down to the fog. To me, that has a major effect on appearance and value, particularly if the piece has no word balloons. Also, in my case, I generally won’t approach a dealer about a lower price by much, so if it is too optimistic, I walk away. And, if too many pieces are too exuberantly priced, I sometimes don’t look at other stock he has, figuring more of the same.

I also agree with your valuation.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Rick2you2

[Catwoman_Fan]

Just to echo, while I don’t follow Vess or Sandman art, I have an acquaintance interested in Sandman Vess pages, and 15k for a Sandman 75 page (featuring Morpheus) isn’t out of the question. Morpheus pages from 19 go up from there (20k+). Your page has Goldie, the brothers, young Harry Potter, and Phantom Stranger. With some iconic Morpheus shots. 7-9k makes sense, and if it’s a grail, a few thousand might be a hurdle worth tackling. 
 

Sometimes when I see “grail” prices, I have to pass and accept it wasn’t a grail for me, but will find a home in someone else’s collection. 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Catwoman_Fan

[ESeffinga]

Exactly.

Edited December 24, 2019 by ESeffinga