February Heritage Auction Really Shaping Up! 2 2

[RBerman]

1 hour ago, JadeGiant said:

Interesting topic for sure. I am primarily a buyer and can't get my head around bidding on something I don't want to buy (as in a collector bidding to push up price but hoping not to buy?). I have learned to go for the pieces I really want and hope the ones I don't want as much stay low for comp reasons. And we have really gone on a tangent here ... back to regular programming. 

Bottom line, the current system is easy for big players to manipulate, so be prepared for that to happen constantly, and decide beforehand what you're willing to pay.

[joefixit2]

good lord<, as just an art collector, i never want to artificially inflate as i want to get art for as cheap as i can 

[Rick2you2]

23 minutes ago, joefixit2 said:

good lord<, as just an art collector, i never want to artificially inflate as i want to get art for as cheap as i can 

But if you are a dealer, a 10% increase on $1,000,000 in inventory, which could be 20 pieces @$50k each, is a cool $100,000. Therein lies the rub. Since Heritage Auction prices for past sales are no secret, it’s a good way to increase the value of your holdings and justify a higher sell price.

[tth2]

11 hours ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

13 hours ago, tth2 said:

What's the difference between my being willing to pay $10k for all Sal B panel pages and  my being willing to ensure that no one else will get a Sal B panel page for less than $10k?

Scenario 1.  If you win, you will be happy

Scenario 2.  If you win, you will not be as happy

 True, but my point is that neither is shilling, wrong or unethical.

[tth2]

10 hours ago, RBerman said:

This was my internal debate last night, albeit at a far lower price point than others being discussed here.

Just to be clear, I was purposely using a clearly absurd example.

In no universe or plane of reality would I be paying $10k for a Sal B page (hallowed be his name).

[tth2]

6 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

But if you are a dealer, a 10% increase on $1,000,000 in inventory, which could be 20 pieces @$50k each, is a cool $100,000. Therein lies the rub. Since Heritage Auction prices for past sales are no secret, it’s a good way to increase the value of your holdings and justify a higher sell price.

That's different from what we're saying.  You seem to be talking more about the Mike Burkey laddering technique of ensuring that a piece will definitely sell for at least $10k, which is pure price manipulation in its purest form.

What I and some of the others are saying is that we would put in a bid of $10k on a piece so that no one else will talk away with it for less than $10k.  This does not mean that the piece will sell at $10k, nor have we done anything to ensure that all price references for that piece will now say $10k.  If the underbidder only bids $5,000, then we will walk away with the piece for whatever the increment above $5k is, and that's what the public record will say. 

We are not manipulating the price to ensure a $10k public sale price, we are merely ensuring that if no one else will pay more than $10k, then it's going into our collection and not theirs.

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by tth2

[Rick2you2]

5 hours ago, tth2 said:

That's different from what we're saying.  You seem to be talking more about the Mike Burkey laddering technique of ensuring that a piece will definitely sell for at least $10k, which is pure price manipulation in its purest form.

What I and some of the others are saying is that we would put in a bid of $10k on a piece so that no one else will talk away with it for less than $10k.  This does not mean that the piece will sell at $10k, nor have we done anything to ensure that all price references for that piece will now say $10k.  If the underbidder only bids $5,000, then we will walk away with the piece for whatever the increment above $5k is, and that's what the public record will say. 

We are not manipulating the price to ensure a $10k public sale price, we are merely ensuring that if no one else will pay more than $10k, then it's going into our collection and not theirs.

 

It sounds to me like the same thing, except it prevents the establishment of a lower price point reflective of true demand, instead of a higher price point, like what Mike did, in order to protect prices on other pieces. I still consider that manipulation.

[RBerman]

2 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

It sounds to me like the same thing, except it prevents the establishment of a lower price point reflective of true demand, instead of a higher price point, like what Mike did, in order to protect prices on other pieces. I still consider that manipulation.

"True demand" is a slippery thing. If someone with deep pockets pays big money for a newly available piece just to prop up the perceived value of his already-owned pieces, that is still demand. But the true test doesn't come until he tries to unload those pieces. If he was the only source of demand at that valuation, he's going to take a bath. "True demand" changes when he becomes the seller instead of the buyer in a fragile market, so it behooves him not to build a house of cards.

These are the tensions inherent in a collecting hobby in which some people collect primarily for personal pleasure, and others have varying degree of profit motive to acquire the same limited resource. It's not unethical or illegal to have a profit motive. It's simply a bummer for enjoyment collectors that these two groups at cross purposes share the same space. Them's the breaks.

[vodou]

3 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

It sounds to me like the same thing, except it prevents the establishment of a lower price point reflective of true demand, instead of a higher price point,

I'm just going to put it out there: if you want a Mike Zeck Captain America example (published, from the book) you have to beat me. For the price I'm willing to pay, I can and will take all examples; as in ALL that exist. Doing so would not stress my finances at all and I have a big enough house ( ) to hold them all. I am the floor of this market and that floor is roughly mid-market, not unrealistically low.

Now, about that price I'm willing to pay ---I have my own internal valuation system, it's proprietary and I will not be sharing that formula. But what I can tell you is so-called "comps" are never more than 25% weighted value in that formula. That means, if you need to beat me: go to the comps and ramp up from there --- you will 98% of the time beat me. I lose Zeck Caps all the time, it's been at least a year since I won one actually. That's because I do not overpay (a word that goes back to the first sentence of this paragraph). Otherwise it's for certain I'm taking it down at/around market unless it's a truly subpar example (Bernie Rosenthal, fully clothed, talking to her cat), and even then...I'll take it, but only for "my" fmv for something like that.

Edited March 11, 2020 by vodou
typo, clarity

[Bronty]

5 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

It sounds to me like the same thing, except it prevents the establishment of a lower price point reflective of true demand, instead of a higher price point, like what Mike did, in order to protect prices on other pieces. I still consider that manipulation.

If I need one carton of eggs, but I buy two because they were on sale for $1 less than normal, have I manipulated the market for eggs?  Come on.

What you're really saying, and let's strip away the BS, is that you don't like the recent comps on Phantom Stranger covers because they are more than you want to pay.     That's all any of this boils down to:   Rick doesn't like the current market prices.   Nothing wrong with that and i've been in your shoes and I get that it really sucks.    But let's not find justifications for the simple truth.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Bronty

[Rick2you2]

2 hours ago, Bronty said:

If I need one carton of eggs, but I buy two because they were on sale for $1 less than normal, have I manipulated the market for eggs?  Come on.

What you're really saying, and let's strip away the BS, is that you don't like the recent comps on Phantom Stranger covers because they are more than you want to pay.     That's all any of this boils down to:   Rick doesn't like the current market prices.   Nothing wrong with that and i've been in your shoes and I get that it really sucks.    But let's not find justifications for the simple truth.

Actually, no, I haven’t been in the market for a cover. I don’t have a published comic book cover, but I do have a panel page and a Fanzine cover which are nice. But I still watch them. I like getting different artists doing similar subjects; not just one artist doing the same subject. 
I also understand that resultant actions can look similar based on different motives. That is the difference. So, if someone wants to buy a Mike Zeck piece for personal enjoyment or because someone thinks the market undervalues it, that’s one thing. If they buy purely to prop up a market price to support their own inventory, that is different—even though it may look like it is the same as buying because the buyer thinks the market undervalues it.

Let me also add that, as I have said before, prices for those covers which I have seen, until recently, did not align with the current pricing over the last few months. If there have been private sales heading in that territory, then my opinion would change.

Let me add that I don’t sell; I buy solely for personal pleasure. So I have paid more than market if I like a piece, and have bought pieces I am not crazy about because it appeals to my “ completist” instinct (although I had to lay off the PS page from last week’s auction, ugh)

Edited March 11, 2020 by Rick2you2

[vodou]

28 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

I also understand that resultant actions can look similar based on different motives. That is the difference. So, if someone wants to buy a Mike Zeck piece for personal enjoyment or because someone thinks the market undervalues it, that’s one thing. If they buy purely to prop up a market price to support their own inventory, that is different—even though it may look like it is the same as buying because the buyer thinks the market undervalues it.

Realistically we don't know what most people's motives are, at least not until they tip their hand. I won't name names (this time , but anybody can PM me to discuss further) but some have 'tipped' and we all know who they are. Others will too over time, it all mostly comes out. Some are better (smarter) at it than others, so that takes longer, etc, but 'the players' that masquerade as collectors but are actually dealers out themselves with their actions. So what? Don't like that stuff then don't reward the behavior with your friendship or patronage. My list of 'those' folks is...long

Thinking about this subject too much will just give you (anyone) a headache though. Watching is fun, sure, but I don't overly invest myself in it.

Another thing to keep in mind is, nobody has unlimited money to spend so somebody buying* to protect their own existing inventory value eventually still has to sell more than they are buying...or they will soon enough live under the bridge, down by the river.

Only the collector can buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and....

 

*not just bidding up but ultimately losing

[Rick2you2]

2 hours ago, vodou said:

Realistically we don't know what most people's motives are, at least not until they tip their hand. I won't name names (this time , but anybody can PM me to discuss further) but some have 'tipped' and we all know who they are. Others will too over time, it all mostly comes out. Some are better (smarter) at it than others, so that takes longer, etc, but 'the players' that masquerade as collectors but are actually dealers out themselves with their actions. So what? Don't like that stuff then don't reward the behavior with your friendship or patronage. My list of 'those' folks is...long

Thinking about this subject too much will just give you (anyone) a headache though. Watching is fun, sure, but I don't overly invest myself in it.

Another thing to keep in mind is, nobody has unlimited money to spend so somebody buying* to protect their own existing inventory value eventually still has to sell more than they are buying...or they will soon enough live under the bridge, down by the river.

Only the collector can buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and....

 

*not just bidding up but ultimately losing

I generally agree with what you wrote. But, this is also a small market where it doesn’t take much to tip it. What, for example, has that Frazetta painting which sold on Heritage for $5M done to the Frazetta painting market, or overall Frazetta market? If the increase is material, then holders can easily sell at least some of it to less savvy buyers at higher prices. I think some of Picasso’s later work, in particular, is . But, it sells. The market-warping is one reason OA will eventually produce its our own version of Tulipmania (as well as the aging out of older collectors whose nostalgia exceeds their brains but matches their wallets). 

[grapeape]

17 hours ago, tth2 said:

Just to be clear, I was purposely using a clearly absurd example.

In no universe or plane of reality would I be paying $10k for a Sal B page (hallowed be his name).

[grapeape]

4 hours ago, vodou said:

Realistically we don't know what most people's motives are, at least not until they tip their hand. I won't name names (this time , but anybody can PM me to discuss further) but some have 'tipped' and we all know who they are. Others will too over time, it all mostly comes out. Some are better (smarter) at it than others, so that takes longer, etc, but 'the players' that masquerade as collectors but are actually dealers out themselves with their actions. So what? Don't like that stuff then don't reward the behavior with your friendship or patronage. My list of 'those' folks is...long

Thinking about this subject too much will just give you (anyone) a headache though. Watching is fun, sure, but I don't overly invest myself in it.

Another thing to keep in mind is, nobody has unlimited money to spend so somebody buying* to protect their own existing inventory value eventually still has to sell more than they are buying...or they will soon enough live under the bridge, down by the river.

Only the collector can buy, and buy, and buy, and buy, and....

 

*not just bidding up but ultimately losing

On the money again!

[Catwoman_Fan]

On 3/8/2020 at 5:46 AM, Garry Ghoul said:

The Rocketeer page went for so low! What happened?

 

In 2014, it was listed at Galerie9art.fr for 9,800 Euro.  But went unsold there.  Only the great Betty pages sold from the Gallery.  The rest, including Felix's cover, were sold later.

Four years ago (2016), Albert listed the unsold Gallery pieces, most in the $2 - 4,000 range.  I grabbed a page from Albert, with a few Bettie panels, which had been listed for 8,500 Euro at Galerie 9. 

This was one of the few pages with Rocketeer in costume, from the issues being offered.  The pages were reasonably priced, and far (far) below what the french Gallery had listed.  

[Garry Ghoul]

9 minutes ago, Catwoman_Fan said:

 

In 2014, it was listed at Galerie9art.fr for 9,800 Euro.  But went unsold there.  Only the great Betty pages sold from the Gallery.  The rest, including Felix's cover, were sold later.

Four years ago (2016), Albert listed the unsold Gallery pieces, most in the $2 - 4,000 range.  I grabbed a page from Albert, with a few Bettie panels, which had been listed for 8,500 Euro at Galerie 9. 

This was one of the few pages with Rocketeer in costume, from the issues being offered.  The pages were reasonably priced, and far (far) below what the french Gallery had listed.  

I bought one page from Albert too. I think Albert sold the Heritage page around 4K no?

[Catwoman_Fan]

4 hours ago, Garry Ghoul said:

I bought one page from Albert too. I think Albert sold the Heritage page around 4K no?

Yes, that sounds right

[Twanj]

Anyone's wins from the signature auction ship out yet?

[batman_fan]

18 hours ago, Twanj said:

Anyone's wins from the signature auction ship out yet?

I paid for mine last week and no notification yet 

Sad thing is our office has us working from home so I would be able to receive a package