Poekaymon Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 TLDR: Talk me out of Incoming #1 (1:500) or high ratio variants in general. As someone who just, a few months ago, returned to the hobby after a thirty-year absence, the most striking thing to me about the industry today is variants. High ratio variants, commission covers (and/or signed/remarked) on artist storefronts, numerous comic store branded variants... it's actually staggering. I'm glad my poor, OCD teenage self didn't have to deal with this. Add in slabs, which is all I personally have been buying the last few months (CGC 9.8 or die), and it's basically an entirely different hobby. Not saying it's better or worse--I'm enjoying it--but it's certainly different. I mostly started getting silvers/coppers out of nostalgia. Wolverine was my favorite in the 1980s, so Hulk 181 is an obvious choice, as are his various first issues, and just other random stuff like Hulk 340. These are mostly ones I enjoyed as a kid, but I wasn't super careful about condition, and I read them many times each, so now I am willing to pay a premium for 9.8 copies to improve upon what I once had and have since lost. I'm also willing to speculate a bit on 1st appearances of other characters which I either wasn't crazy about before or which came out later, hence my pickups of Wolverine Origins 10, Batman Adventures 12, and ASM 194. So in general I guess I'm going for 1) pure nostalgia, 2) first appearances, and 3) 9.8 condition where most of the copies are much lower. Now how do modern variants fit in with this? Should they even be a thing? To start, I put them in 3 categories of declining appeal: 1. Variant first appearances. These seem pretty defensible under any standard. For example, Wolverine Origins 10 (third claw) and Spider Verse 2 (Land). I think I can get behind either of these because firsts are always firsts, and if either character blows up, the variant versions should be the better ones to get. Agree? (Disclosure: I have the Origins 10 and plan to get the Spider-Verse Land.) 2. Ultra famous variants Now, I'm a little more unsure about these. For example, Spider-man 678 (venom), Wolverine (Deadpool outfit), X-23 (Dell'otto), X-force 20 (Venom). (Just picked up the X-23 and was bidding on the X-Force but tapped out when it got close to 1k. 678 is just too dear in 9.8, but it's on my long-term watch list.) Beyond scarcity, these seem primarily driven by the covers, which seems like a serious problem going forward, but at least they come up when anyone googles "top variants" or w/e. Whether that is still the case in, say, 2050 is another matter. 678 may actually be the "best" Venomized cover they ever do, so I guess I can get on board with it, but I really don't know about the others. 3. Everything else - including the vast majority of high ratio stuff I bought a bunch of these, and now I have some buyer's remorse. These covers are usually cool, so I guess I can hang them on the wall, but in terms of any sort of speculation value, what is going to make people want them in 10, 25, 50 years? Just the fact that it was 1:500 or 1:1000 when it came out? If the cover is going to drive the desirability, it's going to have to be the best cover that is ever made for that character (see ultra famous variants above). Otherwise, what's the point? Because there will be more in the future that are as good or better with as high or higher ratios. As just a few of hundreds and hundreds of examples: ASM 700 (1:200), ASM 800 (1:200/1:500), X-Men 510 (sketch), Venom 6 (1:1000), Return of Wolverine #2 (1:1000), Daredevil 600 (1:500)... hundreds more. These are all cool covers, and I can see why people are excited when they come out (and I've fallen prey to that myself), but why is someone in twenty years going to want that 2015 1:500 instead of the 2025 or 2035 variants to come? Taking ASM 700 (the 1:200 Ditko) as a recent example: I see that at one point it went for $2k or more and had a recent sale, at the time of the article, of $1,170 in 10/17 (https://www.sellmycomicbooks.com/variant-comics4.html). Back in like October 2019, when I first came back to the hobby, I made an ebay offer of $900 on a $1099 BIN for a 9.8. The offer was refused with no counter. Since then I have seen several go for around $700, including on this board. From over $2k to $700 in 7 years is worse than buying a house in 2006. And I consider this a pretty good issue, all things considered. Makes me wonder. So how do you guys feel? Do you agree that the variant first appearances or some of the really famous ones might be worthwhile, but the majority of 1:200/1:500 stuff isn't? I was about to buy this Incoming #1 1:500 when I thought of making this post. I guess I want you to talk me out of it. Shoomanfoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deadpoolica Posted January 13, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 13, 2020 Don't buy a variant for speculation purposes....buy it because you like the cover/artist/character Don't buy anything for speculation, only buy what you like....whole market could crash in 10-30 yrs Comics4All, Shoomanfoo, theCapraAegagrus and 6 others 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shoomanfoo Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I am an old school collector. Love my silver and bronze stuff. Though I do indulge in limited and rare variants from time to time. I believe they made 500 of these ADAMANTIUM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poekaymon Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Deadpoolica said: Don't buy a variant for speculation purposes....buy it because you like the cover/artist/character Don't buy anything for speculation, only buy what you like....whole market could crash in 10-30 yrs I was alluding to this idea in another thread. I’m really curious about whether or not we get any new blood in this game. Otherwise who’s going to want this stuff when us old farts start dying. Going to be some estate sale bargains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theCapraAegagrus Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/13/2020 at 4:26 PM, Deadpoolica said: Don't buy a variant for speculation purposes....buy it because you like the cover/artist/character Don't buy anything for speculation, only buy what you like....whole market could crash in 10-30 yrs Couldn't say it better myself. Deadpoolica 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
revat Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I guess I would say, there's a whole trove of pricing history available between GPA, ebay, and other websites to help you track prices over time. Depending on your level of statistical expertise an the time you spend, there should be enough data about the starting points of the key variants and high ratio variants to give you an idea. Of course, even then you'd still have to pick correctly about which cool cover or rare 1st appearances to focus on. Maybe if you do enough analysis you can find common attributes to help you guess which ones experience price explosions. Of course that takes a lot of time an effort, and you won't know until you're 'done' if it was worth the time and effort. Some people may have some theories, but those theories take time and effort and expertise to explore, and have value that diminishes if those theories are distributed to random internet strangers. Good luck. I'd say buy what you like for now while keeping an eye on trends to see if you can locate any weaknesses in the matrix. Make notes, read up, and take the occasional risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valiantman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 manetteska 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poekaymon Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, revat said: I guess I would say, there's a whole trove of pricing history available between GPA, ebay, and other websites to help you track prices over time. Depending on your level of statistical expertise an the time you spend, there should be enough data about the starting points of the key variants and high ratio variants to give you an idea. Of course, even then you'd still have to pick correctly about which cool cover or rare 1st appearances to focus on. Maybe if you do enough analysis you can find common attributes to help you guess which ones experience price explosions. Of course that takes a lot of time an effort, and you won't know until you're 'done' if it was worth the time and effort. Some people may have some theories, but those theories take time and effort and expertise to explore, and have value that diminishes if those theories are distributed to random internet strangers. Good luck. I'd say buy what you like for now while keeping an eye on trends to see if you can locate any weaknesses in the matrix. Make notes, read up, and take the occasional risk. Yeah, been trying to track some of the 2010-2015 variants since around the time I posted this thread, and it certainly seems to be strongly negative over time, except for some outliers. In response to the "just get the covers you like" comment, I think that's valid, but it's probably mostly valid for raws or 9.8s in the $100 range. (ie, even if it goes to the price of a slab, well, you can still look at it and fondle it or whatever at a low loss.) But some of these variants come out of the gate at $3-500 raw and $500-$1k 9.8 and I have to believe that's pure speculation range. Some recent examples include Hunt for Wolverine 1:1000, Incoming 1:500, Venomverse 1 1:1000. I like all of these covers and artists and characters, but at their price points I really don't think you can just "buy it if you like the cover/artist." At least for a person of average income, you probably need some confidence that they will hold value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poekaymon Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, valiantman said: Digging that spike in 1990. Damn you Spider-Man 1. Edited January 17, 2020 by Poekaymon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bababooey Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, valiantman said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
