Is Now the Best Time or the Worst Time to Invest in Comics? 2 2

[Cat-Man_America]

1 hour ago, SuperBird said:

If you're gonna buy low, it's a great time to invest in western comics?

 

Some would say sage investment advice, ...before the tomatoes came out. 

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, Robot Man said:

I agree in principle. For strictly investment purposes buying one key book is smarter. The problem is the higher the grade and price severely limits the possibility for maybe much future growth in your investment. You are gambling that the “market” is going to keep steadily growing at current rates. 

You have a lot smaller a pool of buyers at the top. For every top end buyer, there are 10 buyers that are priced out and have to settle for a lower grade copy. Often, lower grade copies do better at auction. The profit margin can be better. 

Just my observations in 50 years in the hobby...

It only takes one person to buy and yes at an auction it would take 2 bidders who want the book. But in retaining value in the long run you are safest to go with the rarest and top grade you can find. Genuine rare GA/SA in top grade is just impossible...they don't make it anymore. You can have 50 low end buyers but you don't care, if its for an investment you only care about the top 2.

For years I have said Cap1 is a bargain...it has grown greatly but still is a great bargain. I think we bend my rule when it comes to "whale" books. Meaning, I would take Superman 1 3.5 over 10 SF marvel comics #15 to #30. In the early days, we had a fundamental rule TRADE UP..meaning get cap 1 if you have 2,3,4,5 to trade for it. Condition and Restoration was not as big a factor as it is today. That is why I am saying for "investment" purposes go with Blue with exceptional page quality. Today, it is awfully clear there are three types of collectors going after the same comic book, the true comic book collector who would like to see his book appreciate but that is not the main purchase factor, The collector/investor who for the right price, would sell the book as he would make a immediate profit or long term. Finally, the real problem in our collecting world..the comic pure investor, who when he is done he will move on to coins, stamps, video games...whatever he can make money on, its a widget , it means nothing, like a stock certificate. The latter, are the ones which could run up the price to a level which is unsustainable. It possible they take over, for example the Marvel 1.2 sale...which was face lifted so many times we on the board new it was a joke....it was the label that was bought for 1.2 Mil and probably an investor...thinking he can "sell it for more" and the strange thing is..he just might be able to do that....to another investor down the road..

Edited January 20, 2020 by Mmehdy

[buttock]

3 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I tend to agree, but just like there are small niches in the comic book market that might appreciate in value, there are stocks out there that have far more upside than any comic books.

Since the original post had a Silver Age tag, I have to say that SA material is likely poised for a big fall. Even the early SA keys (AF 15, Showcase 4, FF 1,  Action 252, etc.) are overvalued and have turned out to be far more common than many of us would have guessed.

If you know comic books well and don't know the stock market, you'll probably lose less money in GA comics than you would in the stock market. 

The growth of the SA collector base has exceeded the supply, so while the books are more common, they have more potential.  There's also an interesting phenomenon of a second wave of nostalgia where kids growing up buying Image, Valiant, McFarlane, etc., now have the disposable income to buy those mega keys they wanted, but couldn't afford.  

 

That being said, I wouldn't "invest" explicitly in comics.  But I will continue to buy like a madman because I love the books. 

[N e r V]

13 hours ago, Robot Man said:

I agree in principle. For strictly investment purposes buying one key book is smarter. The problem is the higher the grade and price severely limits the possibility for maybe much future growth in your investment. You are gambling that the “market” is going to keep steadily growing at current rates. 

You have a lot smaller a pool of buyers at the top. For every top end buyer, there are 10 buyers that are priced out and have to settle for a lower grade copy. Often, lower grade copies do better at auction. The profit margin can be better. 

Just my observations in 50 years in the hobby...

 

On 1/19/2020 at 3:12 PM, Mmehdy said:

I disagree. For the last 50 years every collector, or naysayer has said the same thing..over and over again...its the worst time to buy, its never gonna go up...we are at the top of the market..just like the  guy who sold me Cap1 for 1k said years ago.

If you buy quality material in top condition at a current market fair price...you will be ok..the sky is not falling..prices are gonna fluctuate as trends take over from the 70's to today..things go in and out of favor.

My advice on buying is if you have the money for 10 mid grade GA comics or you can buy 1 ultra high grade comic...I would go with the quality not the quantity especially for investment purposes. 

As far as investment is concerned I would avoid any restored comic book above 1k..unless it A1, Bat 1 or something like that.

It also depends on what the word investment means to you...if it buying a book you have always wanted in a high grade or a widget...just like a coin or stamp on anything. If widgets, buy high quality unrestored GA/SA books as these will be the easiest one to dispose of quickly with particular attention to page quality. White page books will and always will be in very high demand for GA/SA material.

 I hope you fall on the collector/investor side of things such that you can enjoy the investment. GOOD LUCK
 

OK so this is strictly an observation on that theory but it’s one I’ve heard repeated a number of times that buying ultra high grade is your best investment over mid grades, etc... when in fact it has to do with what books have the highest percentage of increase dollar for dollar.

So if I had paid that 3 million dollars for my Action #1 in HG and it’s worth 6 million today it’s doubled. But it’s very possible to have bought 3 million dollars worth of lower grade but different books that might have 3,4,5 or more times the value. I think the logic of trying to find the best condition copy of any book to invest in is sound advice but the increase in value has far more to do with what you are investing in and not about condition as a universal rule.

A 5 million dollar investment today in a Action #1 or Tec #27 or whatever may be greater, equal or far worse than say a 5 million dollar investment into PCH or Matt Baker books or Hulk #181’s or whatever. This is where your skill set in picking the right books for future investment comes in. Ask any dealer or collector on the boards about some of their choices and regrets and you’ll get the idea...

 

Edited January 21, 2020 by N e r V

[fifties]

20 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

If you buy quality material in top condition at a current market fair price...you will be ok..
 

I recognize that you know your stuff, but that said, I'm not sure what you mean by "quality" for one thing, and AFA "top condition", sometimes one has to grab what he can get, esp with Golden Age books, given the lack of supply and one's budget.

As an example, I bought a copy of Mister Mystery #12 in the early '70's for two bucks.  In looking at Heritage Auctions previous sales, a similar one, in unslabbed "Good" condition (just above a rag) sold for $454 with the BP, back in 2014, and there hasn't been one available in that grade or price range in the six years since. 

So a desirable PCH book in damn near any condition will have NP holding it's own in the appreciation sweepstakes.

[Robot Man]

24 minutes ago, fifties said:

I recognize that you know your stuff, but that said, I'm not sure what you mean by "quality" for one thing, and AFA "top condition", sometimes one has to grab what he can get, esp with Golden Age books, given the lack of supply and one's budget.

As an example, I bought a copy of Mister Mystery #12 in the early '70's for two bucks.  In looking at Heritage Auctions previous sales, a similar one, in unslabbed "Good" condition (just above a rag) sold for $454 with the BP, back in 2014, and there hasn't been one available in that grade or price range in the six years since. 

So a desirable PCH book in damn near any condition will have NP holding it's own in the appreciation sweepstakes.

We are unicorns in this hobby Fifties...

[porcupine48]

16 minutes ago, Robot Man said:

We are unicorns in this hobby Fifties...

[Ryan.]

49 minutes ago, fifties said:

I recognize that you know your stuff, but that said, I'm not sure what you mean by "quality" for one thing, and AFA "top condition", sometimes one has to grab what he can get, esp with Golden Age books, given the lack of supply and one's budget.

As an example, I bought a copy of Mister Mystery #12 in the early '70's for two bucks.  In looking at Heritage Auctions previous sales, a similar one, in unslabbed "Good" condition (just above a rag) sold for $454 with the BP, back in 2014, and there hasn't been one available in that grade or price range in the six years since. 

So a desirable PCH book in damn near any condition will have NP holding it's own in the appreciation sweepstakes.

In your example, the copy you bought was, technically, the top condition copy that was available. 

[Tri-Color Brian]

I like turtles...

[porcupine48]

2 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I like turtles...

They are pretty stylish 

Edited January 20, 2020 by porcupine48

[Ryan.]

9 minutes ago, porcupine48 said:

They are pretty stylish 

Spoiler

 

[porcupine48]

🧡🧡🧡

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I don't know much how potential other genres have. I see younger collectors moving away from comic books (and baseball cards, and coins, and stamps) and into video games and tennis shoes. If you had told be 10 years ago that people would be collecting tennis shoes, I would have asked you where you got the drugs.

If you are talking about collecting athlete's shoes, you are probably already too late for this collecting craze:

https://www.cnn.com/style/article/nike-moon-shoe-sold-auction-trnd/index.html

As clearly evident by the $437,500 paid for this rare pair of Nike's Moon Shoe.  

It's always best to be ahead of the curve instead of chasing the hot items after they've already gone up in price.  In that light, maybe you thinking about game worn jock straps or jill straps.    

[rtsunlimited]

Here's my

I wonder how much of the appreciation in Key GA/SA/Bronze etc is due to white collar professionals and the "wealthy" seeking to diversify their portfolios. I think many investors are looking for alternative investments to increase returns. Stocks by MANY measures are now overvalued, the 30 year Treasury yields are, what, less than 2.3%(!!)? The Fed is doing not-QE to support the repo market which is lifting the stock market. Real estate is still expensive in most major cities. How long this can last, I have no idea but, it can't last forever. So, if there's a 25%-50% correction in stocks, will that spill over to keys? Seems likely if there's not a quick rebound. But, I do expect that rates can't go up (because of the interest due on the national debt) until something "breaks" and then lookout! Tangibles (like comics) might do well. 

Anyway, the big questions I have:

1) are new people entering the hobby?

2) What are their demographics? Young? old?

3) Why are they entering? Investment? Collecting?

I wonder if the big auction houses or large dealers could help answer such questions. 
Maybe Bedrock or G.A.tor can chime in?

Besides low interest rates driving the collectible market I believe there are the following tail winds:
- TV and movies making collecting comics at least acceptable if not cool
- CGC and the other third party grading services
- The Overstreet price Guide
- The auction houses - I think Heritage is especially helpful to broaden the comic collecting universe since they are in so many other fields
- Mass media showcasing record sales

At some point, I suspect, the public is going to get tired of the superhero movies which might be a drag on investment potential

Regarding buying the rarest and best. In my experience, that does not always work. Case in point:
From the Heritage archives
Target Comics #7 MH CGC 9.6 sold for $57,500 in 2003
Failed to sell in 2007 with a reserve of $40,000
I have no idea what happened to the book since then. But, I bet someone probably lost some serious bucks if the book flipped since then.

As a Centaur collector primarily focused on Funny pages, Funny Picture Stories, Star Comics and Star Ranger there's been more than a couple of times where I'm pretty sure it's just me and another guy in a bidding war at an auction. If I want the book badly enough, a record price may ensue. This may bring out an additional copy or two locked up in collections and the next price isn't anywhere near as record setting. I've seen that happen a couple of times. But, since I'm more interested in upgrading or finishing a run, while annoying, I'm prepared for that going in. What I'm getting at is there needs to be a large enough pool of collectors chasing specific books to satisfy the supply that comes out of the wood work. As prices escalate, fewer people can spring for it and other stuff looks like a deal in comparison.

As a long time L.B. Cole collector, I'm getting priced out of the market. So, I'm not buying as much there as I was a few years ago and am moving on to other things that seem more reasonably priced in comparison.

 

 

[porcupine48]

6 hours ago, SuperBird said:

If you're gonna buy low, it's a great time to invest in western comics?

 

Oh geeze,the secret's out.I've been picking up great shape Canadian,Bell features Westerns for next to nothing lately.Decent reads and Canadian stuff's my thang

[Tri-Color Brian]

I have heard this question and the responses for the last 45 years, so I have always just bought what I liked and could afford.  I DO NOT see a major downturn in GA prices in the future.  I DO see many younger (than me) collectors looking for GA now.  So many, that when I try to get something cheap on ebay someone always outbids me.  Maybe there are only 30 collectors buying on ebay and all of them have unlimited funds!  But I doubt it.  We here on the boards are a tiny fraction of the total collectors out there.  Most don't even know we exist, and the others don't care about show and tell.  I think they are too busy outbidding me for the books I want...

Anyone who has been in this hobby for 20 or more years knows prices go up in cycles.  LB Cole was hot in the mid-90s and is now hot again.  I doubt every trend will continue indefinitely.  We've already seen a softening on Baker covers.  It might be 10 more years before Baker zooms again like it did in the last 4 years.  But, I might be wrong...we might be in a new cycle of "grab everything that's affordable". 

In any case...BUY what you like, and stay away from my ebay books...

[Robot Man]

17 minutes ago, rtsunlimited said:

Here's my

I wonder how much of the appreciation in Key GA/SA/Bronze etc is due to white collar professionals and the "wealthy" seeking to diversify their portfolios. I think many investors are looking for alternative investments to increase returns. Stocks by MANY measures are now overvalued, the 30 year Treasury yields are, what, less than 2.3%(!!)? The Fed is doing not-QE to support the repo market which is lifting the stock market. Real estate is still expensive in most major cities. How long this can last, I have no idea but, it can't last forever. So, if there's a 25%-50% correction in stocks, will that spill over to keys? Seems likely if there's not a quick rebound. But, I do expect that rates can't go up (because of the interest due on the national debt) until something "breaks" and then lookout! Tangibles (like comics) might do well. 

Anyway, the big questions I have:

1) are new people entering the hobby?

2) What are their demographics? Young? old?

3) Why are they entering? Investment? Collecting?

I wonder if the big auction houses or large dealers could help answer such questions. 
Maybe Bedrock or G.A.tor can chime in?

Besides low interest rates driving the collectible market I believe there are the following tail winds:
- TV and movies making collecting comics at least acceptable if not cool
- CGC and the other third party grading services
- The Overstreet price Guide
- The auction houses - I think Heritage is especially helpful to broaden the comic collecting universe since they are in so many other fields
- Mass media showcasing record sales

At some point, I suspect, the public is going to get tired of the superhero movies which might be a drag on investment potential

Regarding buying the rarest and best. In my experience, that does not always work. Case in point:
From the Heritage archives
Target Comics #7 MH CGC 9.6 sold for $57,500 in 2003
Failed to sell in 2007 with a reserve of $40,000
I have no idea what happened to the book since then. But, I bet someone probably lost some serious bucks if the book flipped since then.

As a Centaur collector primarily focused on Funny pages, Funny Picture Stories, Star Comics and Star Ranger there's been more than a couple of times where I'm pretty sure it's just me and another guy in a bidding war at an auction. If I want the book badly enough, a record price may ensue. This may bring out an additional copy or two locked up in collections and the next price isn't anywhere near as record setting. I've seen that happen a couple of times. But, since I'm more interested in upgrading or finishing a run, while annoying, I'm prepared for that going in. What I'm getting at is there needs to be a large enough pool of collectors chasing specific books to satisfy the supply that comes out of the wood work. As prices escalate, fewer people can spring for it and other stuff looks like a deal in comparison.

As a long time L.B. Cole collector, I'm getting priced out of the market. So, I'm not buying as much there as I was a few years ago and am moving on to other things that seem more reasonably priced in comparison.

 

 

As GA-tor himself said, once he got out of chasing Centaurs, the prices took a decent dip. He even broke even or lost money on a lot of them. The demand is still there but the real deep pockets clearly are not. All it takes is s few big buyers to get out and the market tanks...

And as far as LB Cole books go, I’m pretty much priced out too and I have been buying them for 40 years.

Edited January 20, 2020 by Robot Man

[fifties]

As a reaction to the current ridiculous prices on some books that I am just not about to pay but still want to read, I have taken to buying a few reproductions of Mister Mystery and Phantom Lady (to name two titles).

[porcupine48]

2 minutes ago, fifties said:

As a reaction to the current ridiculous prices on some books that I am just not about to pay but still want to read, I have taken to buying a few reproductions of Mister Mystery and Phantom Lady (to name two titles).

I got one of those repros of Phantom Lady 17-Soda Mint Killer! and I have to say I LOVE it.

[Black Bat]

My collecting motto- Death and Sex and Violence are eternal- anything else is just nostalgia!  Ha ha.