Is Now the Best Time or the Worst Time to Invest in Comics? 2 2

[lou_fine]

On 1/20/2020 at 2:07 PM, rtsunlimited said:

Regarding buying the rarest and best. In my experience, that does not always work. Case in point:
From the Heritage archives
Target Comics #7 MH CGC 9.6 sold for $57,500 in 2003
Failed to sell in 2007 with a reserve of $40,000
I have no idea what happened to the book since then. But, I bet someone probably lost some serious bucks if the book flipped since then.

Actually, not much of a surprise because you don't really have to do too much research at all to find this exact same scenario with a lot of books in the first few years of certification.  Seems as though buyers were apparently trying to figure out the right price point for slabbed books back then and often ended up over paying for them in those early years.    

Take a look at another classic example being the Church copy of National Comics 7 with the beautiful and absolutely breathtaking Lou Fine classic underwater cover:

 

Sold in February of 2004 at HA for $20,700 or at a multiple of more than 8X top of condition guide price;

Then failed to sell in May of 2005 at HA with a reserve of $16,000;

Also failed to sell a second time in August of 2006 at HA with a reserve of $12,000; and 

Finally failed to sell a third time in January of 2007 at HA with a reserve of only $11,500.  

Not sure whatever happened to the book although there was quite a bit of speculation back then that the book might have been bidded up there and brought by a Heritage related dealer.  Regardless, I am quite sure that this book along with the previously mentioned Church copy of the classic cover Target Comics 7 would have absolutely no problems fetching huge dollars in today's much more scorching red hot classic cover focused marketplace.    

 

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by lou_fine

[Mmehdy]

12 hours ago, N e r V said:

Post 1963 books in general have always carried more risk due to much larger supply pools of them...

as time goes on, not so much....its pretty safe to say that any original GA collectors and major collections are 99%found or no longer collect. Not the same with the marvels...there could be many major collections out there, so I would NOT hang a million bucks on a AF15 to be the highest at say 9.6 but as the years pass the SA will become much safer, yes the GA had some mighty runs but with the war and paper drives and the 50's destruction GA is rare.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Cat-Man_America]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

as time goes on, not so much....its pretty safe to say that any original GA collectors and major collections are 99%found or no longer collect. Not the same with the marvels...there could be many major collections out there, so I would NOT hang a million bucks on a AF15 to be the highest at say 9.6 but as the years pass the SA will become much safer, yes the GA had some mighty runs but with the war and paper drives and the 50's destruction GA is rare.

Most everything you’ve said here is true, ...but more SA in the market would fuel greater risk over time, not less.  The very reason that SA collections pose an increased investment risk are the high census numbers already in play.  The potential volatility of the SA collecting market is consistent with a bubble, too much supply for the demand.  This poses greater risk, not lesser.  For a market to remain stable or grow the number of collectibles available has to be in sync with the number of interested collectors at various grade/price points.  There’s no such thing as too many interested collectors, but in the marketplace there can always be too many collectibles. 

You’re right about GA.  The number of graded books are relatively few compared to SA and more recent eras of books.  As long as SA collecting remains strong, the equilibrium of the market can fluctuate with mild up and down swings based purely on incremental growth supported by supply & demand. If the numbers of collectors decrease or the number of discovered collections increase, that balance will be thrown out of sync.  When a bubble pops, there is a greater tendency to divest quickly.  If the correction is too rapid, the market can suffer a long term loss, not reviving without generational rediscovery or new media fueled interest.

[buttock]

55 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

  The very reason that SA collections pose an increased investment risk are the high census numbers already in play.  The potential volatility of the SA collecting market is consistent with a bubble, too much supply for the demand.  This poses greater risk, not lesser.  For a market to remain stable or grow the number of collectibles available has to be in sync with the number of interested collectors at various grade/price points. 

You're contradicting yourself here, or at least only focusing on one aspect of the supply:demand ratio.  Yes, the supply is much higher, but the demand is at least equally high, and growing.  The growth is fueled by increased presence of the characters in mass media, but it's also growing due to the target demographic getting to the age where they have disposable income to spend on the books.  It wouldn't surprise me to see another bump in growth 20 years from now as the kids growing up in the MCU want something to blow their excess cash on.  

[Cat-Man_America]

42 minutes ago, buttock said:

You're contradicting yourself here, or at least only focusing on one aspect of the supply:demand ratio.  Yes, the supply is much higher, but the demand is at least equally high, and growing.  The growth is fueled by increased presence of the characters in mass media, but it's also growing due to the target demographic getting to the age where they have disposable income to spend on the books.  It wouldn't surprise me to see another bump in growth 20 years from now as the kids growing up in the MCU want something to blow their excess cash on.  

No contradictions that I can see, but to clarify, I’m focusing on two key elements.  

If what you’re saying were 100% true across the board I’d fully support the viewpoint you’re espousing.  Maybe I’m missing something here, but your position is assuming facts not in evidence.  Modern comic sales are down overall and I don’t perceive this aspect of the hobby as sustainable the way things stand today.  One of us is right ...that’s true enough... and if this were just a matter of wishful thinking, I’d be totally on board with your POV.  But there are just too many factors pointing in other directions.  

First off, the film and TV media growth has peaked the past couple of years.  It may be running out of steam suggesting a tectonic shift away from comic book based entertainment.  It isn’t going to vanish altogether, by any means, but the superhero market was saturated and comic based programming is a tougher sell today than 10 years ago when it had a stranglehold on the public’s imagination.

Secondly, millennials may not be be predisposed to spending as much disposable income on comic book related entertainment given other competition for it.  I’m not saying interest has completely shifted away from comics, but devotion to the super hero culture isn’t nearly as strong now as this has been in the past.  IMO, this is due to both generational factors and an environmental push to substitute digital access for paper.  

Collecting ...as in the hobby when applied to modern comic collecting... requires an affordable printable medium to help sustain the market. I’m not suggesting that paper is going away, unless global climate change becomes more of a factor in deforestation and rising paper costs.  It’s just that it will become an even more specialized higher end market with fewer “buy-ins” by younger readers.  As things are, the cost of comic books has risen dramatically while page count has dwindled, a factor that accounts for fewer readers of new comics.

I’d love to see the kind of bump in the growth of comic interest that you’re predicting, and perhaps we’ll see it.  Hey, I’m on your side in wishing for this outcome. There is still room for growth in GA collecting because the numbers of books are less than the competitive demand.  And perhaps the SA market is more robust and sustainable than the high census numbers would suggest.

Note: My crystal ball is subject to change without notice as cloudiness mileage varies. 

[jhutton2]

On 1/18/2020 at 2:24 PM, fifties said:

LB Cole seems to be on fire at eBay; https://www.ebay.com/itm/Ghostly-Weird-Stories-122-LB-Cole-Cover-CGC-4-0-/293414063137?_trksid=p2047675.l2557&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT&nma=true&si=z8%2B73K%2FGSEN%2FlcsukELOcpyvMBE%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc

I have the original cover proof for this cover that I purchased from HA years ago along with several other LB Cole covers.

[MrBedrock]

53 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

No contradictions that I can see, but to clarify, I’m focusing on two key elements.  

If what you’re saying were 100% true across the board I’d fully support the viewpoint you’re espousing.  Maybe I’m missing something here, but your position is assuming facts not in evidence.  Modern comic sales are down overall and I don’t perceive this aspect of the hobby as sustainable the way things stand today.  One of us is right ...that’s true enough... and if this were just a matter of wishful thinking, I’d be totally on board with your POV.  But there are just too many factors pointing in other directions.  

First off, the film and TV media growth has peaked the past couple of years.  It may be running out of steam suggesting a tectonic shift away from comic book based entertainment.  It isn’t going to vanish altogether, by any means, but the superhero market was saturated and comic based programming is a tougher sell today than 10 years ago when it had a stranglehold on the public’s imagination.

Secondly, millennials may not be be predisposed to spending as much disposable income on comic book related entertainment given other competition for it.  I’m not saying interest has completely shifted away from comics, but devotion to the super hero culture isn’t nearly as strong now as this has been in the past.  IMO, this is due to both generational factors and an environmental push to substitute digital access for paper.  

Collecting ...as in the hobby when applied to modern comic collecting... requires an affordable printable medium to help sustain the market. I’m not suggesting that paper is going away, unless global climate change becomes more of a factor in deforestation and rising paper costs.  It’s just that it will become an even more specialized higher end market with fewer “buy-ins” by younger readers.  As things are, the cost of comic books has risen dramatically while page count has dwindled, a factor that accounts for fewer readers of new comics.

I’d love to see the kind of bump in the growth of comic interest that you’re predicting, and perhaps we’ll see it.  Hey, I’m on your side in wishing for this outcome. There is still room for growth in GA collecting because the numbers of books are less than the competitive demand.  And perhaps the SA market is more robust and sustainable than the high census numbers would suggest.

Note: My crystal ball is subject to change without notice as cloudiness mileage varies. 

So you are saying that demand by the reading public for the printed comic book is declining, will go away, and therefore future demand for back issues will wane significantly?

Cat, I would love some facts and figures to back up that theory.

This are the specific assessments I would love proven...

1. Film and TV growth has peaked the past couple of years
2. Comic based programming is a tougher sell today than 10 years ago
3. millennials may not be be predisposed to spending as much disposable income on comic book related entertainment
4. devotion to the super hero culture isn’t nearly as strong now as this has been in the past
5. the cost of comic books has risen dramatically while page count has dwindled, a factor that accounts for fewer readers of new comics

I am not saying that any of these statements are necessarily incorrect. I just need some facts. Just saying them doesn't make them so. As an example, the last statement has been parsed and debated by retailers and publishers for the last thirty years. If higher cover prices are leading to lower sales then why have price decreases not lead to corresponding sales increases for printed comics? Also, story page counts have actually increased while only ad pages have decreased.

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by MrBedrock

[porcupine48]

Comic books forever !!  

[buttock]

15 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

So you are saying that demand by the reading public for the printed comic book is declining, will go away, and therefore future demand for back issues will wane significantly?

Cat, I would love some facts and figures to back up that theory.

This are the specific assessments I would love proven...

1. Film and TV growth has peaked the past couple of years
2. Comic based programming is a tougher sell today than 10 years ago
3. millennials may not be be predisposed to spending as much disposable income on comic book related entertainment
4. devotion to the super hero culture isn’t nearly as strong now as this has been in the past
5. the cost of comic books has risen dramatically while page count has dwindled, a factor that accounts for fewer readers of new comics

I am not saying that any of these statements are necessarily incorrect. I just need some facts. Just saying them doesn't make them so. As an example, the last statement has been parsed and debated by retailers and publishers for the last thirty years. If higher cover prices are leading to lower sales then why have price decreases not lead to corresponding sales increases for printed comics? Also, story page counts have actually increased while only ad pages have decreased.

 

Better get out while you can.  

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

21 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

So you are saying that demand by the reading public for the printed comic book is declining, will go away, and therefore future demand for back issues will wane significantly?

Cat, I would love some facts and figures to back up that theory.

This are the specific assessments I would love proven...

1. Film and TV growth has peaked the past couple of years
2. Comic based programming is a tougher sell today than 10 years ago
3. millennials may not be be predisposed to spending as much disposable income on comic book related entertainment
4. devotion to the super hero culture isn’t nearly as strong now as this has been in the past
5. the cost of comic books has risen dramatically while page count has dwindled, a factor that accounts for fewer readers of new comics

I am not saying that any of these statements are necessarily incorrect. I just need some facts. Just saying them doesn't make them so. As an example, the last statement has been parsed and debated by retailers and publishers for the last thirty years. If higher cover prices are leading to lower sales then why have price decreases not lead to corresponding sales increases for printed comics? Also, story page counts have actually increased while only ad pages have decreased.

 

I can only tell you I am burned out by super hero movies.  Everyone I talk to is burned out by super hero movies.  And if anyone should be thrilled by each new super hero movie, it should be a guy with a significant love of comics like me.  

Fact!

[bluechip]

7 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I can only tell you I am burned out by super hero movies.  Everyone I talk to is burned out by super hero movies.  And if anyone should be thrilled by each new super hero movie, it should be a guy with a significant love of comics like me.  

Fact!

Time for that big budget Howling Commandos pic.

[MrBedrock]

11 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I can only tell you I am burned out by super hero movies.  Everyone I talk to is burned out by super hero movies.  And if anyone should be thrilled by each new super hero movie, it should be a guy with a significant love of comics like me.  

Fact!

Thanks for the response. Well, if it is true for you it MUST be true for the rest of the world.

On the other hand, the news that Namor will be in an upcoming movie has some folks pretty pumped.

[D84]

10 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

Thanks for the response. Well, if it is true for you it MUST be true for the rest of the world.

On the other hand, the news that Namor will be in an upcoming movie has some folks pretty pumped.

It's got to be a better movie than Aquaman. 

[october]

15 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Actually, not much of a surprise because you don't really have to do too much research at all to find this exact same scenario with a lot of books in the first few years of certification.  Seems as though buyers were apparently trying to figure out the right price point for slabbed books back then and often ended up over paying for them in those early years.    

Take a look at another classic example being the Church copy of National Comics 7 with the beautiful and absolutely breathtaking Lou Fine classic underwater cover:

 

Sold in February of 2004 at HA for $20,700 or at a multiple of more than 8X top of condition guide price;

Then failed to sell in May of 2005 at HA with a reserve of $16,000;

Also failed to sell a second time in August of 2006 at HA with a reserve of $12,000; and 

Finally failed to sell a third time in January of 2007 at HA with a reserve of only $11,500.  

Not sure whatever happened to the book although there was quite a bit of speculation back then that the book might have been bidded up there and brought by a Heritage related dealer.  Regardless, I am quite sure that this book along with the previously mentioned Church copy of the classic cover Target Comics 7 would have absolutely no problems fetching huge dollars in today's much more scorching red hot classic cover focused marketplace.    

 

 

A buddy of mine was smart enough to buy it while value was at low ebb. He is not a dealer. As far as I know, he still owns it. We talked about a trade for it once, but I didn't pull the trigger. 

It's a great book. 

[lou_fine]

31 minutes ago, october said:

15 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 

Take a look at another classic example being the Church copy of National Comics 7 with the beautiful and absolutely breathtaking Lou Fine classic underwater cover:

 

Not sure whatever happened to the book although there was quite a bit of speculation back then that the book might have been bidded up there and brought by a Heritage related dealer.  Regardless, I am quite sure that this book along with the previously mentioned Church copy of the classic cover Target Comics 7 would have absolutely no problems fetching huge dollars in today's much more scorching red hot classic cover focused marketplace.    

 

 

A buddy of mine was smart enough to buy it while value was at low ebb. He is not a dealer. As far as I know, he still owns it. We talked about a trade for it once, but I didn't pull the trigger. 

It's a great book. 

+1

Would definitely agreement 110% with your statement above in regards to National Comics 7.  

Glad to hear that your buddy was astute enough to pick it up at a bargain price and hopefully, he was also wise enough to still have it in his collection.  

[N e r V]

1 hour ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I can only tell you I am burned out by super hero movies.  Everyone I talk to is burned out by super hero movies.  And if anyone should be thrilled by each new super hero movie, it should be a guy with a significant love of comics like me.  

Fact!

 

1 hour ago, MrBedrock said:

Thanks for the response. Well, if it is true for you it MUST be true for the rest of the world.

On the other hand, the news that Namor will be in an upcoming movie has some folks pretty pumped.

I have a friend that more than a decade ago told me we have reached critical mass on superhero movies and they’d decline. I’ve heard that every couple years since. I like to needle him each year on when they are going “poof”.

 

My comment to him and others still stands. Superhero movies and/or TV shows have been a part of the media culture since the 1940’s on in one form or another. They existed very early in cinemas history as a genre. Yes the numbers vary at times but they have been a regular feature for many decades. So saying they are going to stop today is probably like saying science fiction or fantasy movies will cease altogether. The only thing in question is if Marvel and DC can continue to make them work at their current level. Since the 2000’s began they seem to work very well as each new generation picks out what they like. The cgc board members are not the core audience for these movies/shows today. In fact most of the kids watching them probably never grew up reading them but were introduced through other sources unlike most board members here.

Another very big factor today is these movies usually do more outside the US than in their native country. Superheroes are very much an international genre today being popular in markets they never were before. You’re all scr*wed too if the Chinese ever discover LB Cole or Matt Baker books. Think of the bidding power of 1.4 billion...

[buttock]

1 hour ago, N e r V said:

 

I have a friend that more than a decade ago told me we have reached critical mass on superhero movies and they’d decline. I’ve heard that every couple years since. I like to needle him each year on when they are going “poof”.

 

My comment to him and others still stands. Superhero movies and/or TV shows have been a part of the media culture since the 1940’s on in one form or another. They existed very early in cinemas history as a genre. Yes the numbers vary at times but they have been a regular feature for many decades. So saying they are going to stop today is probably like saying science fiction or fantasy movies will cease altogether. The only thing in question is if Marvel and DC can continue to make them work at their current level. Since the 2000’s began they seem to work very well as each new generation picks out what they like. The cgc board members are not the core audience for these movies/shows today. In fact most of the kids watching them probably never grew up reading them but were introduced through other sources unlike most board members here.

Another very big factor today is these movies usually do more outside the US than in their native country. Superheroes are very much an international genre today being popular in markets they never were before. You’re all scr*wed too if the Chinese ever discover LB Cole or Matt Baker books. Think of the bidding power of 1.4 billion...

Shame that Joker didn't do well. 

[Randall Dowling]

3 hours ago, october said:

A buddy of mine was smart enough to buy it while value was at low ebb. He is not a dealer. As far as I know, he still owns it. We talked about a trade for it once, but I didn't pull the trigger. 

It's a great book. 

If we’re thinking of the same guy, he’s one of nicest collectors I’ve had the privilege of meeting.  He floored me when he pulled that out and showed it to me and a friend after dinner.  He did request anonymity, though, and I respect that.  Stunning book!

[N e r V]

49 minutes ago, buttock said:

Shame that Joker didn't do well. 

You’re joking....

[N e r V]

3 hours ago, october said:

A buddy of mine was smart enough to buy it while value was at low ebb. He is not a dealer. As far as I know, he still owns it. We talked about a trade for it once, but I didn't pull the trigger. 

It's a great book. 

I think there can be a problem anytime a book doesn’t appear often for sale too. What’s it worth now? I’m I overpaying? Did I get a deal? Even notable books like an Action #1 will get a thread of what’s it going to do because it doesn’t sell as often as something like an Amazing Fantasy #15. There’s a lot of books out there it really becomes a challenge on figuring out what to bid it to. Just saying....