Is Now the Best Time or the Worst Time to Invest in Comics? 2 2

[Hamlet]

4 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

1. Film and TV growth has peaked the past couple of years.

Obviously no one knows what the future holds.  I can’t prove we are at a peak for movies/TV.  However, would it surprise anyone if looking back in 10 years that Endgame was the high water mark for superhero movies?
 

There are very few times in the past where a genre of movies was made at an extremely high level for decades.  Typically, Hollywood gets lazy and runs stuff into the ground, and then people start looking for something new.  The success of the MCU has been amazing, but at some point it is going to be hard to keep that success going.  They are going to have a pretty dramatic turnover in casting now, with RDJ and Chris Evans moving on to new things. There is pretty serious risk here.
 

I’m a comic guy, and I’ve been getting tired of comic movies.  This is while they’ve been putting out really  good movies.  What happens when they inevitably make a few clunkers in a row?

The prices have risen fast enough that it starts making me think back to the early 90s comic market, or the 1999 tech stock market.  It may not play out like that- markets are almost impossible to predict.  However, there are so many people saying it can’t play out that way that I’m getting twitchy.  At any rate, I’m priced out of most popular books these days.  I’m not buying anything high dollar in a market this frothy.

On the plus side, there are always areas to collect in that are not popular.  That’s where my purchases will be concentrated.

[thedude]

the year was 2009, I had bought a Showcase #4 raw, had it CGC graded, came back blue 3.5 off white. 

at that time (2009), a Showcase #4 3.5 was going for about $2k

there was discussion on these boards at that time of the future 10 year growth for Showcase 4.

and the consensus was that whatever you paid for the book at that time (2009), that is what it would be worth 10 years later (now).  so basically, no gain.

so, I sold the book at that time, getting about $2k for it. 

Showcase #4 in CGC 3.5 are currently selling for $10k. 

the CW show happened, then Justice League movie, and now rumors of a Flash movie.

nobody knows what the future holds.

I have stopped listening to what the group think is in this hobby, because the naysayers are always saying "nay"

 

dude out.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by thedude

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

.but more SA in the market would fuel greater risk over time, not less.  The very reason that SA collections pose an increased investment risk are the high census numbers already in play.  The potential volatility of the SA collecting market is consistent with a bubble, too much supply for the demand.  This poses greater risk, not lesser.

So, I guess you are saying the GA comic book market is a safer place for investing, as opposed to the more recent ages where irrational exuberance tends to rear its ugly head at times.  Especially when you often see books selling for ridiculous record setting prices, even though the population census report indicates the existence of multiple copies in equivalent grades.  

If so, then I guess you are implying the recent winners of books such as Tomb of Dracula 10 for $85K; Marvel Super Heroes 13 for $31,111; Eternals 13 for $4,150; etc.    stands a much higher risk of not being able to recoup their money upon eventual resale of their books?  

Edited January 23, 2020 by lou_fine

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

13 minutes ago, thedude said:

the year was 2009, I had bought a Showcase #4 raw, had it CGC graded, came back blue 3.5 off white. 

at that time (2009), a Showcase #4 3.5 was going for about $2k

there was discussion on these boards at that time of the future 10 year growth for Showcase 4.

and the consensus was that whatever you paid for the book at that time (2009), that is what it would be worth 10 years later (now).  so basically, no gain.

so, I sold the book at that time, getting about $2k for it. 

Showcase #4 in CGC 3.5 are currently selling for $10k. 

the CW show happened, then Justice League movie, and now rumors of a Flash movie.

nobody knows what the future holds.

I have stopped listening to what the group think is in this hobby, because the naysayers are always saying "nay"

 

dude out.

 

 

Don’t you mean “ dude abides”?

[fifties]

6 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

 

 As things are, the cost of comic books has risen dramatically while page count has dwindled, a factor that accounts for fewer readers of new comics.

What is your source for "fewer readers of new comics"?

There was high -for the period- inflation in 1951.  As a result, a number of comic books that previously contained 52 pages dropped to a 36 count, but retained the 10 cent price.  The number of titles allegedly grew in 1952 to over 500.  Hardly a shrinking market...

[N e r V]

1 hour ago, fifties said:

What is your source for "fewer readers of new comics"?

There was high -for the period- inflation in 1951.  As a result, a number of comic books that previously contained 52 pages dropped to a 36 count, but retained the 10 cent price.  The number of titles allegedly grew in 1952 to over 500.  Hardly a shrinking market...

...which lead to more children being turned into hardened criminals until the code saved the day....

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by N e r V

[Mmehdy]

4 hours ago, N e r V said:

 

I have a friend that more than a decade ago told me we have reached critical mass on superhero movies and they’d decline. I’ve heard that every couple years since. I like to needle him each year on when they are going “poof”.

 

My comment to him and others still stands. Superhero movies and/or TV shows have been a part of the media culture since the 1940’s on in one form or another. They existed very early in cinemas history as a genre. Yes the numbers vary at times but they have been a regular feature for many decades. So saying they are going to stop today is probably like saying science fiction or fantasy movies will cease altogether. The only thing in question is if Marvel and DC can continue to make them work at their current level. Since the 2000’s began they seem to work very well as each new generation picks out what they like. The cgc board members are not the core audience for these movies/shows today. In fact most of the kids watching them probably never grew up reading them but were introduced through other sources unlike most board members here.

Another very big factor today is these movies usually do more outside the US than in their native country. Superheroes are very much an international genre today being popular in markets they never were before. You’re all scr*wed too if the Chinese ever discover LB Cole or Matt Baker books. Think of the bidding power of 1.4 billion...

The world wide market super hero market has expanded, more TV shows are being produced than ever before, and superhero material reaches worldwide. You cannot compare this time of movie and tv production to the past, the Streaming wars have begun....there will be many more shows to come down the road.

 GA will continue to hold value, demand because like that national 7 above...it GREAT stuff. Sure you have to pick your spots but any Cap, human torch book is a no brainer.

 

 As far as comic book readers go, some of the best publications are available now and in the future. Its great that somebody can buy Spiderman 1-38 Marvel hardcover and become an instant fan...I think there are more readers but where I see the growth coming is in graphic novels and reprints.

The future looks bright to me....

[Cat-Man_America]

7 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

So you are saying that demand by the reading public for the printed comic book is declining, will go away, and therefore future demand for back issues will wane significantly?

Cat, I would love some facts and figures to back up that theory.

This are the specific assessments I would love proven...

1. Film and TV growth has peaked the past couple of years
2. Comic based programming is a tougher sell today than 10 years ago
3. millennials may not be be predisposed to spending as much disposable income on comic book related entertainment
4. devotion to the super hero culture isn’t nearly as strong now as this has been in the past
5. the cost of comic books has risen dramatically while page count has dwindled, a factor that accounts for fewer readers of new comics

I am not saying that any of these statements are necessarily incorrect. I just need some facts. Just saying them doesn't make them so. As an example, the last statement has been parsed and debated by retailers and publishers for the last thirty years. If higher cover prices are leading to lower sales then why have price decreases not lead to corresponding sales increases for printed comics? Also, story page counts have actually increased while only ad pages have decreased.

 

I'd like to provide more proof than is obvious, but my subpoenas have been ignored!  

[MrBedrock]

16 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

I'd like to provide more proof than is obvious, but my subpoenas have been ignored!  

There is no obvious proof other than you saying these things are true. 

[adamstrange]

1 hour ago, N e r V said:

...which lead to more children being turned into hardened criminals until the code saved the day....

I am thankful for the code ridding us once and for all of the terrible scourge of juvenile delinquency.

[fifties]

5 minutes ago, adamstrange said:

I am thankful for the code ridding us once and for all of the terrible scourge of juvenile delinquency.

*Snicker* the paranoia in the '50's..."Those awful comic books!"

[Cat-Man_America]

3 hours ago, lou_fine said:

So, I guess you are saying the GA comic book market is a safer place for investing, as opposed to the more recent ages where irrational exuberance tends to rear its ugly head at times.  Especially when you often see books selling for ridiculous record setting prices, even though the population census report indicates the existence of multiple copies in equivalent grades.  

If so, then I guess you are implying the recent winners of books such as Tomb of Dracula 10 for $85K; Marvel Super Heroes 13 for $31,111; Eternals 13 for $4,150; etc.    stands a much higher risk of not being able to recoup their money upon eventual resale of their books?  

Exactly.  The scenario of record prices for relatively common books in an economy trending toward high deficit spending and inflation, to my way of thinking, indicates a bubble.  That means higher risk. 

Of course, I hope my opinion on this is totally misinformed, but history suggests otherwise.

28 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

There is no obvious proof other than you saying these things are true. 

Alas, my crystal ball may be cloudy (your's is definitely more polished)  ...but my sense of humor remains sunny.  

Edited January 23, 2020 by Cat-Man_America

[I am not Glenda]

Just  A GUY NAMED JOE........... The BIG FISH ( collectors/dealers with enough money to just buy what they want when they want and not worry if the books increase or decrease "hey, it's just money right?") THE OLD GUARD this group has built GA/SA collections over decades ( most are in their late 40s/70s) & the true back bone of the current GA/SA market. They have amazing collection that have increased way beyond anything they ever could have hoped for thanks to the internet, grading & the current all things Superhero crazy taking over the world. Many members of the  2 above groups have also become semi dealers selling books to buy other books to feed the beast,make money and just having something fun to do on Saturday at a local show. THE NEW WAVE moderns ( 20ish/35 year olds may live at home may not) still read a lot of new comics be it digital or hard print. They are internet savvy & tend to chase the HOT TREND BOOK of the moment 1st, 2nd or 43rd app of Gofer Girl or 1 of 50 variant cover by this years new HOT artist. They are plugged into social media in ways the two above groups could not begin to fathom. They live for the quick flip to INVEST in "older books" they have dreamed about since they were kids in 2001 ( Hulk 181, ASM 129 or ASM 300 & even NM 98) or to just have money to buy POP figures, the latest XBox game or more Cosplay costumes for next years big con. Ask & they can tell you all the actors names on Game of Thrones and Walking Dead. ( much like I could tell you who Byrne, Miller & Kirby are) They see the hobby as much more than just comics but a small part of a much bigger POP CULTURE way of life. All of these groups ( and the many sub groups I didn't fellike listing) have a huge impact on where we are at in terms of CMV.  ( I mean WTF? TMNT 1 90k, HULK 181 40K think about that, a decade ago those # were for all but the best GA/SA books) But when it all comes down to the bare bones " it's the economy stupid" or "it's all the same only the names have changed" over the past 40 yrs & this hobby like all other hobbies is driven by one thing....... perception. the biggest impact on FMV is how do you/we/I feel about our lives,bills,family right now... period. We have been riding the GOOD TIMES since 2009 ( not that we all have a lot more money but most of us feel OTAYYY, the news tells us the economy is good, your 401 is up & gas is cheap ).

    So the answer to you post is this....... all of the above groups/people have NO IDEA if investing in comics is a good idea right now including myself Why? because we have no clue as to what the US/WORLD economy will be like in a few years if it's still flying like a rocket current prices will seem like a steal. However, if the news starts to uses words like slowing down, recession & higher unemployment and we all wake up one day & the market has lost 20%, housing and manufacturing have slowed and your 401 is worth 30% less than it was just few days before then those cool comics may not seem as important and maybe you can live with your 5.0 Avengers #1 instead of upgrading to a 7.0. My point is this our hobby is like any other its driven by pure perception & all of the groups above including the BIG FISH have very little real insight into what will happen to this hobby or any other collectable ( it may affect them less) but really nobody on this board has a f#ukin clue.   Hope that helps

PS I know, I know just buy what you like and you will be fine blah blah blah, those days are lonnnnng gone imho nobody is buying a 181 for 40k because they like it. ( All of the older pre CGC guys know the dirty little secret there is no discernible difference between one of the ten thousand 9.0 # 181 and 9.8 or at least not a 35k difference, like I said it's all perception)

Edited January 23, 2020 by I am not Glenda

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

17 minutes ago, I am not Glenda said:

PS I know I know just buy what you like and you will be fine blah blah blah, those days are lonnnnng gone imho nobody is buying a 181 for 40k because they like it.

Ok, that is funny

[october]

Nobody, and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet, nobody knows if the market is gonna go up, down, sideways or in %^$#@ circles.

[MrBedrock]

8 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

 

Alas, my crystal ball may be cloudy (your's is definitely more polished)  ...but my sense of humor remains sunny.  

Cat, I will try one last time. I don't have a crystal ball. I am certainly nowhere near as intelligent as you given our relative ages and experience. All I am asking is for you to give some proof to back the sweeping generalizations that you present as fact. I need to know so that if the new comic market is dying as you say it is then I can make plans to get into another line of work.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

26 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

Cat, I will try one last time. I don't have a crystal ball. I am certainly nowhere near as intelligent as you given our relative ages and experience. All I am asking is for you to give some proof to back the sweeping generalizations that you present as fact. I need to know so that if the new comic market is dying as you say it is then I can make plans to get into another line of work.

(with credit to delekkerste)

Edited January 23, 2020 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[bluechip]

16 hours ago, Hamlet said:

Obviously no one knows what the future holds.  I can’t prove we are at a peak for movies/TV.  However, would it surprise anyone if looking back in 10 years that Endgame was the high water mark for superhero movies?
 

There are very few times in the past where a genre of movies was made at an extremely high level for decades.  Typically, Hollywood gets lazy and runs stuff into the ground, and then people start looking for something new.  The success of the MCU has been amazing, but at some point it is going to be hard to keep that success going.  They are going to have a pretty dramatic turnover in casting now, with RDJ and Chris Evans moving on to new things. There is pretty serious risk here.
 

I’m a comic guy, and I’ve been getting tired of comic movies.  This is while they’ve been putting out really  good movies.  What happens when they inevitably make a few clunkers in a row?

The prices have risen fast enough that it starts making me think back to the early 90s comic market, or the 1999 tech stock market.  It may not play out like that- markets are almost impossible to predict.  However, there are so many people saying it can’t play out that way that I’m getting twitchy.  At any rate, I’m priced out of most popular books these days.  I’m not buying anything high dollar in a market this frothy.

On the plus side, there are always areas to collect in that are not popular.  That’s where my purchases will be concentrated.

A few Hollywood notables have predicted that comic-based movies would eventually fade as a genre the same way that Westerns did.   

While I respect the folks who said that, I would also point out that comics aren't as similar to one another as Westerns were.   Westerns included a wide range of stories, from kid stuff to adult fare, but a limited time frame and settings.    

Comics, on the other hand, have a much wider range and encompass many genres -- including Westerns.   And if you limit your label of comicbook movies to superhero movies, they are still much more varied and variable than Westerns. 

But, even if you do confine comics movies to those about superheroes, and you are correct in saying they will dominate culture only so long as Westerns did,you might want to remember that Westerns were a huge and often dominant factor in American movies for more than 70 years -- from 1903 ("The Great Train Robbery") to the mid 70s.

 

 

[Robot Man]

8 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

Just  A GUY NAMED JOE........... The BIG FISH ( collectors/dealers with enough money to just buy what they want when they want and not worry if the books increase or decrease "hey, it's just money right?") THE OLD GUARD this group has built GA/SA collections over decades ( most are in their late 40s/70s) & the true back bone of the current GA/SA market. They have amazing collection that have increased way beyond anything they ever could have hoped for thanks to the internet, grading & the current all things Superhero crazy taking over the world. Many members of the  2 above groups have also become semi dealers selling books to buy other books to feed the beast,make money and just having something fun to do on Saturday at a local show. THE NEW WAVE moderns ( 20ish/35 year olds may live at home may not) still read a lot of new comics be it digital or hard print. They are internet savvy & tend to chase the HOT TREND BOOK of the moment 1st, 2nd or 43rd app of Gofer Girl or 1 of 50 variant cover by this years new HOT artist. They are plugged into social media in ways the two above groups could not begin to fathom. They live for the quick flip to INVEST in "older books" they have dreamed about since they were kids in 2001 ( Hulk 181, ASM 129 or ASM 300 & even NM 98) or to just have money to buy POP figures, the latest XBox game or more Cosplay costumes for next years big con. Ask & they can tell you all the actors names on Game of Thrones and Walking Dead. ( much like I could tell you who Byrne, Miller & Kirby are) They see the hobby as much more than just comics but a small part of a much bigger POP CULTURE way of life. All of these groups ( and the many sub groups I didn't fellike listing) have a huge impact on where we are at in terms of CMV.  ( I mean WTF? TMNT 1 90k, HULK 181 40K think about that, a decade ago those # were for all but the best GA/SA books) But when it all comes down to the bare bones " it's the economy stupid" or "it's all the same only the names have changed" over the past 40 yrs & this hobby like all other hobbies is driven by one thing....... perception. the biggest impact on FMV is how do you/we/I feel about our lives,bills,family right now... period. We have been riding the GOOD TIMES since 2009 ( not that we all have a lot more money but most of us feel OTAYYY, the news tells us the economy is good, your 401 is up & gas is cheap ).

    So the answer to you post is this....... all of the above groups/people have NO IDEA if investing in comics is a good idea right now including myself Why? because we have no clue as to what the US/WORLD economy will be like in a few years if it's still flying like a rocket current prices will seem like a steal. However, if the news starts to uses words like slowing down, recession & higher unemployment and we all wake up one day & the market has lost 20%, housing and manufacturing have slowed and your 401 is worth 30% less than it was just few days before then those cool comics may not seem as important and maybe you can live with your 5.0 Avengers #1 instead of upgrading to a 7.0. My point is this our hobby is like any other its driven by pure perception & all of the groups above including the BIG FISH have very little real insight into what will happen to this hobby or any other collectable ( it may affect them less) but really nobody on this board has a f#ukin clue.   Hope that helps

PS I know, I know just buy what you like and you will be fine blah blah blah, those days are lonnnnng gone imho nobody is buying a 181 for 40k because they like it. ( All of the older pre CGC guys know the dirty little secret there is no discernible difference between one of the ten thousand 9.0 # 181 and 9.8 or at least not a 35k difference, like I said it's all perception)

I guess I represent the OLD GUARD. I’ve been collecting for the love it and the thrill of the hunt since before there was an internet or even an Overstreet guide. I have always said I can’t believe the prices people are getting for the comics I have in my collection. And, what do I know. They just keep rising in value. Will be great if and when I decide to sell it off. Most likely, my wife and kids will get that pleasure. 

[fifties]

8 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

this hobby like all other hobbies is driven by one thing....... perception.

Well I'll be damned.  Thx so much for clarifying and identifying my drive to collect pre code horror and crime comics.  Here all along I thought it was merely a desire to read them, and re-connect with some of my early wasted years of youth. 

Umm, what is it that I'm supposed to perceive?  That they'll increase in value from when I bought them?  Hell, they already have, but I don't care.  Money ain't why I collect them, 'cause if I sold them, then I wouldn't be able to read them again.  Make sense to ya?