Is Now the Best Time or the Worst Time to Invest in Comics? 2 2

[Cat-Man_America]

Comic collecting is one Dickens of a hobby with wildly swinging changes of fortune.  The culmination of my analysis of the current state of the hobby and investment comes to this, ...and I’m really sticking my neck out here:

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

Alas, ‘Tis a far, far better pub I enter to than I’ve ever crawled out of, ‘Tis a far, far better ale I imbibe than I’ve ever deposited.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Cat-Man_America
Scholarly insights! ;0)

[N e r V]

4 minutes ago, woowoo said:

Fact @MrBedrock @Cat-Man_America when I had my mommy order this for me I bought book's from the stand to my collection to my friends collection I lost 30k plus. I even cut some books more to get a better cut on the stamp  

Marvel must have loved you but yes, you were a fool...

 

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, skybolt said:

I've been collecting Golden Age books for the past 17 years. The market across various genres seldom goes up on a straight trajectory year after year. What typically happens is that as soon as a key book, title and/or character gets hot, prices go up significantly over a short period of time (usually between 6 months to 2 years). What happens then is that current owners  will see the positive trend and decide to sell their books for a nice profit. Once the interest and supply (which is usually fairly small for GA books) dies down a little, prices will usually stagnate for several years before the next jump. The reason for this that a.) collectors move onto to other hot books and b.) the current owners who spent a bundle purchasing a key book are more likely to keep it for several years until they see the next price jump. I remember having a conversation with either Josh (Comiclink) or Vince (Metro) and their advice was to always hold onto a book for at least 5 to 7 years to let it go through this cycle.

It seems that what is hot becomes not because  of the price increase, and then people realize that the not hot stuff is underpriced and demand goes up for them. The state of the market going into the "roaring 20s" has never looked better. Because of the many reprints especially in the 50's horror department we seen a increase in prices and interest. A key issue is what is next in the 1938-1955 price range to hit a price surge . If I had to guess it would be high grade 1944/5 and up DC's especially Flash. DC is has turned a corner on its movies, and some reprint stuff is just fantastic especially the extra Large hardcover editions. Watch over the next 2-3 for my prediction to come true. What is your choice for the next discovery of undervalue among collectors?

Edited January 24, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Cat-Man_America]

9 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

It seems that what is hot becomes not because  of the price increase, and then people realize that the not hot stuff is underpriced and demand goes up for them. The state of the market going into the "roaring 20s" has never looked better. Because of the many reprints especially in the 50's horror department we seen a increase in prices and interest. A key issue is what is next in the 1938-1955 price range to hit a price surge . If I had to guess it would be high grade 1944/5 and up DC's especially Flash. DC is has turned a corner on its movies, and some reprint stuff is just fantastic especially the extra Large hardcover editions. Watch over the next 2-3 for my prediction to come true. What is your choice for the next discovery of undervalue among collectors?

I just hope we all don’t end up partying like it’s 1929.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Cat-Man_America

[batman_fan]

On 1/22/2020 at 4:11 PM, MrBedrock said:

Thanks for the response. Well, if it is true for you it MUST be true for the rest of the world.

On the other hand, the news that Namor will be in an upcoming movie has some folks pretty pumped.

I’m not because I haven’t bought a copy of issue 1 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

1 hour ago, N e r V said:

After nearly a weeks worth of comments have you decided anything about your original posting?
 

I’m just curious if this was a exercise on others opinions for fun or if you’re considering your future purchase more frugally now... 

 

Actually, NerV, I have read every single comment closely and found them all helpful.  I realize people are passionate about their opinions either way, and some seem to have been dismayed by the very question itself.  I was sorry to see some people get a bit irritated with each other and have occasionally stepped in to try to drain out some of the pressure.

But yes, these comments absolutely did help solidify my thoughts.  I know my next comment will likely generate some "how full of sh&%$t is this guy?" questions, but I was seriously pondering a Tec 27.  After reading carefully what people have said(and yes, I do consider each one of you to be experts),  I've decided not to come out of the stock market to do it, and am just going to stand pat on the books I've already got.  A 5 year "hold" on them seems about right.  I love them and want them, but my plan is to liquidate in 5 years, retire, and move to Rome.  For real.

Thank you everyone.  You are my friends.

Even you, woowoo.

Edited January 24, 2020 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[batman_fan]

21 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Actually, NerV, I have read every single comment closely and found them all helpful.  I realize people are passionate about their opinions either way, and some seem to have been dismayed by the very question itself.  I was sorry to see some people get a bit irritated with each other and have occasionally stepped in to try to drain out some of the pressure.

But yes, these comments absolutely did help solidify my thoughts.  I know my next comment will likely generate some "how full of sh&%$t is this guy?" questions, but I was seriously pondering a Tec 27.  After reading carefully what people have said(and yes, I do consider each one of you to be experts),  I've decided not to come out of the stock market to do it, and am just going to stand pat on the books I've already got.  A 5 year "hold" on them seems about right.  I love them and want them, but my plan is to liquidate in 5 years, retire, and move to Rome.  For real.

Thank you everyone.  You are my friends.

Even you, woowoo.

Will you be running a raffle to decide which of us boardees you will be taking with you to Rome?

[woowoo]

14 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Actually, NerV, I have read every single comment closely and found them all helpful.  I realize people are passionate about their opinions either way, and some seem to have been dismayed by the very question itself.  I was sorry to see some people get a bit irritated with each other and have occasionally stepped in to try to drain out some of the pressure.

But yes, these comments absolutely did help solidify my thoughts.  I know my next comment will likely generate some "how full of sh&%$t is this guy?" questions, but I was seriously pondering a Tec 27.  After reading carefully what people have said(and yes, I do consider each one of you to be experts),  I've decided not to come out of the stock market to do it, and am just going to stand pat on the books I've already got.  A 5 year "hold" on them seems about right.  I love them and want them, but my plan is to liquidate in 5 years, retire, and move to Rome.  For real.

Thank you everyone.  You are my friends.

Even you, woowoo. Thank you @GreatCaesarsGhost

Don't listen to him @GreatCaesarsGhost He get's on everyone's Nerv  but he has his moments .  (seriously pondering a Tec 27 ) I would really try and get a copy it seems to be the hardest key to get ( IMO )

[N e r V]

1 hour ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Actually, NerV, I have read every single comment closely and found them all helpful.  I realize people are passionate about their opinions either way, and some seem to have been dismayed by the very question itself.  I was sorry to see some people get a bit irritated with each other and have occasionally stepped in to try to drain out some of the pressure.

But yes, these comments absolutely did help solidify my thoughts.  I know my next comment will likely generate some "how full of sh&%$t is this guy?" questions, but I was seriously pondering a Tec 27.  After reading carefully what people have said(and yes, I do consider each one of you to be experts),  I've decided not to come out of the stock market to do it, and am just going to stand pat on the books I've already got.  A 5 year "hold" on them seems about right.  I love them and want them, but my plan is to liquidate in 5 years, retire, and move to Rome.  For real.

Thank you everyone.  You are my friends.

Even you, woowoo.

How about you buy mine and I’ll move to Rome...

 

Actually I agree with you on not moving funds from stocks to comics if you like what you’re holding in all your investments you should hold. I agree with the poster thedude and his Showcase #4 experience. Always be willing to listen to people’s opinions but always make sure the decisions you make are your own and not influenced by others outside of any information they offer up for you to make an informed decision. 
 

It was a good thread and I enjoyed hearing all the information and tea leaf readings in it.

Thanx!

[N e r V]

53 minutes ago, woowoo said:

Don't listen to him @GreatCaesarsGhost He get's on everyone's Nerv  but he has his moments .  (seriously pondering a Tec 27 ) I would really try and get a copy it seems to be the hardest key to get ( IMO )

Just don’t cut any coupons out...

[Callaway29]

If comics go down, it'll probably be right after the stock market.... So you're hosed either way...

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, WoWitHurts said:

I am perfectly happy with my copy. Which at $260 may have bee a lot more than others would have paid I was happy with it.

Well, $260 for a very subjective and one opinion based grade lower is a huge difference to be paying as compared to a very definitve and exact mathematical based $15K.   

Did you ever consider sending your copy in for a resub, although the spine ticks would most likely keep this copy from grading any higher.  Even if possible, if appears that CGC 9.8 graded copies of this book is now trading at a fraction of what this copy sold for a few years ago and might not be worth cost of the gamble?  

[woowoo]

2 hours ago, N e r V said:

Just don’t cut any coupons out...

 

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, buttock said:

23 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Looking back now a few years later on this auction result of $15K for this relatively common book (other than grade), I believe the consignor made out a lot better than the eventual winner of this copy here.    

That's a lousy purchase if you want to get your money back.  However, if you want the best CGC certified collection of Iron Man, it's a great purchase.  It's not on me to judge what someone spends their money on.  That's the great thing about this HOBBY.  It's not rational, and you get to buy what you like.  If it increases in value, that's gravy.  

+1

I would wholeheartedly agree with both of your points here, as it's should always be a case of to each, their own.  

Especially since I have paid good money for books before in the past knowing that they did not have the same chance of going up in value as other books.  Brought it for the simple reason that I just wanted a copy in my own personal collection.  

Although I tended to rationalize my new comic books purchases from the LCS's back in the day with the hope that they would increase in value one day, I actually never really truly expected them to.  I was just going through some boxes the other day looking for a book and noticed that I have a ton of BA books in their poly bags from 40+ years that really has no value to them.  Being an old time long-term collector, even if I had come across a book like a minty fresh uber HG Iron Man 30 in my personal collection, it would never ever cross my mind to get something like this graded and slabbed since it just seems so common and not worth the time and trouble to take a gamble on putting it through the grading process.     

Edited January 24, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

After reading carefully what people have said(and yes, I do consider each one of you to be experts),  I've decided not to come out of the stock market to do it, and am just going to stand pat on the books I've already got.

 

3 hours ago, N e r V said:

Actually I agree with you on not moving funds from stocks to comics if you like what you’re holding in all your investments you should hold.

So, according to this historical chart as previously posted if you actually believe it, you guys are going to try to squeeze every last dollar out of the market for a few more weeks before making the big switcheroo:   

 

Hippefully, you dumped all of your China related stocks like Ali last week at all-time record highs when word of the Coronavirus first broke because they are taking a bit of a beating this week with the situation worsening as time goes by.    

[WoWitHurts]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Well, $260 for a very subjective and one opinion based grade lower is a huge difference to be paying as compared to a very definitve and exact mathematical based $15K.   

Did you ever consider sending your copy in for a resub, although the spine ticks would most likely keep this copy from grading any higher.  Even if possible, if appears that CGC 9.8 graded copies of this book is now trading at a fraction of what this copy sold for a few years ago and might not be worth cost of the gamble?  

I don't really do resubs. The book in hand is just beautiful and the scan has some artifacts that may look like tick marks. There is only one at the top staple near his foot. I find that 9.6 copies are great looking books and I will only buy 9.8 when the price is right. I really don't distinguish between the two grades except in price. I like the Oakland copies a lot and would consider an upgrade if they become available. I have some Western Penn copies and those are stunning as well. I don't chase single in grade books, that's just a nightmare waiting to happen. 15k to 7k to 3.5k. Only goes down from there.

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

A key issue is what is next in the 1938-1955 price range to hit a price surge . If I had to guess it would be high grade 1944/5 and up DC's especially Flash. DC is has turned a corner on its movies, and some reprint stuff is just fantastic especially the extra Large hardcover editions. Watch over the next 2-3 for my prediction to come true. What is your choice for the next discovery of undervalue among collectors?

Hey Mitch;

How about if we think outside the super-hero box and make a daring choice by going even before your 1938 starting point all the way back to 1933:

In fact, right back to the historical origins of the modern day comic book, especially since these early pioneer pre-hero books have been out of favor for decades now.  

Or are they sadly long forgotten and dead and not a chance of ever being resurrected in today's super-hero and classic cover  focused marketplace?  

[lou_fine]

6 minutes ago, WoWitHurts said:

I don't chase single in grade books, that's just a nightmare waiting to happen.

+1

In full agreement with you here.  

Personally, I am definitely much more interested in books which have underlying value in terms of all grades across the entire condition spectrum.  Chasing and paying for CGC labels is definitely not a game that I would be good at playing, especially considering the anal-retentive way that I tend to collect. 

[DanCooper]

12 hours ago, WoWitHurts said:

I believe it landed in the top Iron Man #1-100 set of NEWGIZMO. I am perfectly happy with my copy. Which at $260 may have bee a lot more than others would have paid I was happy with it.

Hide the 9.8 and 9.6 labels and forget the $15K vs. $260 price discrepancy, I would take your 9.6 copy 10 out of 10 times over the 9.8 just because of centering and white pages!

[bluechip]

On 1/18/2020 at 10:17 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

The stock market has been absolutely insane for the last 2 years.  I guess you take away consumer protections, and its like the training wheels have been taken away:  business is just more profitable.

I'm in this hobby for the love of it, as is everyone here.   But I don't want to lose money, and it just seems crazy to sell stock to buy books.

So . . . is now the best time or the worst time to invest in comics?

It's the best time to buy stuff that's undervalued and sure to rise.   It's the worst time to buy stuff that's overvalued and sure to fall.