Is Now the Best Time or the Worst Time to Invest in Comics?
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15 hours ago, fifties said:

Well I'll be damned.  Thx so much for clarifying and identifying my drive to collect pre code horror and crime comics.  Here all along I thought it was merely a desire to read them, and re-connect with some of my early wasted years of youth. 

Umm, what is it that I'm supposed to perceive?  That they'll increase in value from when I bought them?  Hell, they already have, but I don't care.  Money ain't why I collect them, 'cause if I sold them, then I wouldn't be able to read them again.  Make sense to ya?

Well I'll will be damned. The post had nothing to do with WHY YOU or anyone COLLECTS COMICS the question of the post was it a good time to invest, that's called reading comprehension. Which I have to assume you have a lot of from reading all those classic horror & crome comics.  Hope that makes sense to ya.

Edited by I am not Glenda

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Think of investing in comics this way..."if there wasn't any tv/movie hype, would people still be looking for this book 50 years from now?  if the answer is yes, hang on to it.   

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17 hours ago, Hamlet said:

Obviously no one knows what the future holds.  I can’t prove we are at a peak for movies/TV.  However, would it surprise anyone if looking back in 10 years that Endgame was the high water mark for superhero movies?
 

There are very few times in the past where a genre of movies was made at an extremely high level for decades.  Typically, Hollywood gets lazy and runs stuff into the ground, and then people start looking for something new.  The success of the MCU has been amazing, but at some point it is going to be hard to keep that success going.  They are going to have a pretty dramatic turnover in casting now, with RDJ and Chris Evans moving on to new things. There is pretty serious risk here.
 

I’m a comic guy, and I’ve been getting tired of comic movies.  This is while they’ve been putting out really  good movies.  What happens when they inevitably make a few clunkers in a row?

The prices have risen fast enough that it starts making me think back to the early 90s comic market, or the 1999 tech stock market.  It may not play out like that- markets are almost impossible to predict.  However, there are so many people saying it can’t play out that way that I’m getting twitchy.  At any rate, I’m priced out of most popular books these days.  I’m not buying anything high dollar in a market this frothy.

On the plus side, there are always areas to collect in that are not popular.  That’s where my purchases will be concentrated.

If the market crashes like in the mid 90's...that's a sign to start buying.  

 

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8 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

PS I know, I know just buy what you like and you will be fine blah blah blah, those days are lonnnnng gone imho nobody is buying a 181 for 40k because they like it. ( All of the older pre CGC guys know the dirty little secret there is no discernible difference between one of the ten thousand 9.0 # 181 and 9.8 or at least not a 35k difference, like I said it's all perception)

 People have different income. To say someone isn't buying what they like because its expensive and therefore is only an investment is silly. I like Iron Man and as my income has increased so has the quality of the books I buy. 

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24 minutes ago, WoWitHurts said:

 People have different income. To say someone isn't buying what they like because its expensive and therefore is only an investment is silly. I like Iron Man and as my income has increased so has the quality of the books I buy. 

Hi I 100% understand that each collector has different reasons for why they collect & those were just an example I mean you can buy a $20 book and it may be a lot for you it's a big hobby and very personal.  However my general feeling is that most people spending large sums of money are looking at the book as some type of an investment/collectable, are their exceptions? You bet. But imho most people paying 50k for a comic book are hoping it increases in value.

Edited by I am not Glenda

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5 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

Cat, I will try one last time. I don't have a crystal ball. I am certainly nowhere near as intelligent as you given our relative ages and experience. All I am asking is for you to give some proof to back the sweeping generalizations that you present as fact. I need to know so that if the new comic market is dying as you say it is then I can make plans to get into another line of work.

I’ll take the bait, ...well sorta.  hm

Are you asking for investment guidance in comic auctions or as the owner of one of the biggest, most successful breath mint store chains in the country? As I see it, the calculation for success in these two ventures (comic auctions vs collectors shops) diverges greatly.  :foryou:

OK, folks who want more food for thought or foo to eschew, here ya go...

What I’ve posted is strictly my opinion, based on observations and personal experience.  Folks can judge my observations for themselves, discuss at will ...preferably cordially... I don’t mind disagreement.  Heck, Bedrock probably has a lot more insight into the day to day market side of things, so I’ll gladly yield to his two cents with or without inflation.

In collecting markets facts are elusive because auctions are a mixture of fact and fiction. If a book hammers at $15000 when the same or similar copy previously sold for $2000, that’s a fact, but is this part of a trend everyone should pay close attention to or merely an outlier?  How many years have gone by since a similar book was auctioned? Was there any behind the scenes impetus driving the sale? Does it mean all collectors of the title see this as the value of the book in question or just two bidders whom wanted it badly enough to stubbornly compete for it? 

Then there are the intangibles. For instance, are current values established over actual long term consensus based on a range of verifiable data? What does it say when a book hammers for 20K and can’t sell for 10K in the next auction or a year later? Is media fervor playing any role in heightened investment prices? Do cancellations or poor productions have an impact on interest? Rumors of new movies? After awhile rumors start to look like market manipulation (ergo insider trading).

Market speculation requires interpreting factual data while navigating false and misleading indicators to predict future events.  I’ll admit this is an impossible task that requires a lot of guesswork (in Vegas the house always wins, ...the same could be said of auction houses). What’s required is analysis of historical data, hypothetical.situations and real world economic forecasts.  Informed opinions ....and that’s all that any are professed to be... come down to best guesses,  That’s everybody's!  Mine lean toward taking a cautionary view of the markets in a volatile economic climate.

I’m not predicting gloom and doom for comics of any age or genre, ...never have.  There are certainly areas of consumer interest in modern comics that have changed along with what motivates collectors to invest. I don’t profess to be the best judge of what is valuable in contemporary comics.  My experience is mostly with GA comics, but I keep an eye on other sales and the popularity of comics in general. For those who think the investment markets, auctions especially, in the current economic climate are in good health, I’d respectfully suggest taking a closer look.

Note: It’s been tough posting here today due to forum maintenance issues, but things seem to be working now! (thumbsu

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18 hours ago, N e r V said:

I think there can be a problem anytime a book doesn’t appear often for sale too. What’s it worth now? I’m I overpaying? Did I get a deal? Even notable books like an Action #1 will get a thread of what’s it going to do because it doesn’t sell as often as something like an Amazing Fantasy #15. There’s a lot of books out there it really becomes a challenge on figuring out what to bid it to. Just saying....

AMEN, very frustrating to put a price/value on these grail rarities

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2 hours ago, WoWitHurts said:

 People have different income. To say someone isn't buying what they like because its expensive and therefore is only an investment is silly. I like Iron Man and as my income has increased so has the quality of the books I buy. 

Well, since we are talking about investment and your love for Iron Man, had your income increased to the level that you was the lucky winner of this book here:  :screwy:

iro1.5897a.jpg

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/689571

Looking back now a few years later on this auction result of $15K for this relatively common book (other than grade), I believe the consignor made out a lot better than the eventual winner of this copy here.  hm  :tonofbricks:

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1 hour ago, Cat-Man_America said:

Market speculation requires interpreting factual data while navigating false and misleading indicators to predict future events.  I’ll admit this is an impossible task that requires a lot of guesswork (in Vegas the house always wins, ...the same could be said of auction houses). What’s required is analysis of historical data, hypothetical.situations and real world economic forecasts.  Informed opinions ....and that’s all that any are professed to be... come down to best guesses,  That’s everybody's!  Mine lean toward taking a cautionary view of the markets in a volatile economic climate.

Market speculation in comics is really not that hard as long as you pay attention to the trends. While movie/tv hype drives prices and is easier to follow, you can see trends in non-superhero books fairly readily based on buying patterns and what other collectors are asking for at shows.

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3 hours ago, Cat-Man_America said:

I’ll take the bait, ...well sorta.  hm

Are you asking for investment guidance in comic auctions or as the owner of one of the biggest, most successful breath mint store chains in the country? As I see it, the calculation for success in these two ventures (comic auctions vs collectors shops) diverges greatly.  :foryou:

OK, folks who want more food for thought or foo to eschew, here ya go...

What I’ve posted is strictly my opinion, based on observations and personal experience.  Folks can judge my observations for themselves, discuss at will ...preferably cordially... I don’t mind disagreement.  Heck, Bedrock probably has a lot more insight into the day to day market side of things, so I’ll gladly yield to his two cents with or without inflation.

In collecting markets facts are elusive because auctions are a mixture of fact and fiction. If a book hammers at $15000 when the same or similar copy previously sold for $2000, that’s a fact, but is this part of a trend everyone should pay close attention to or merely an outlier?  How many years have gone by since a similar book was auctioned? Was there any behind the scenes impetus driving the sale? Does it mean all collectors of the title see this as the value of the book in question or just two bidders whom wanted it badly enough to stubbornly compete for it? 

Then there are the intangibles. For instance, are current values established over actual long term consensus based on a range of verifiable data? What does it say when a book hammers for 20K and can’t sell for 10K in the next auction or a year later? Is media fervor playing any role in heightened investment prices? Do cancellations or poor productions have an impact on interest? Rumors of new movies? After awhile rumors start to look like market manipulation (ergo insider trading).

Market speculation requires interpreting factual data while navigating false and misleading indicators to predict future events.  I’ll admit this is an impossible task that requires a lot of guesswork (in Vegas the house always wins, ...the same could be said of auction houses). What’s required is analysis of historical data, hypothetical.situations and real world economic forecasts.  Informed opinions ....and that’s all that any are professed to be... come down to best guesses,  That’s everybody's!  Mine lean toward taking a cautionary view of the markets in a volatile economic climate.

I’m not predicting gloom and doom for comics of any age or genre, ...never have.  There are certainly areas of consumer interest in modern comics that have changed along with what motivates collectors to invest. I don’t profess to be the best judge of what is valuable in contemporary comics.  My experience is mostly with GA comics, but I keep an eye on other sales and the popularity of comics in general. For those who think the investment markets, auctions especially, in the current economic climate are in good health, I’d respectfully suggest taking a closer look.

Note: It’s been tough posting here today due to forum maintenance issues, but things seem to be working now! (thumbsu

 

8 hours ago, MrBedrock said:

Cat, I will try one last time. I don't have a crystal ball. I am certainly nowhere near as intelligent as you given our relative ages and experience. All I am asking is for you to give some proof to back the sweeping generalizations that you present as fact. I need to know so that if the new comic market is dying as you say it is then I can make plans to get into another line of work.

You two seem to have a history...hm

 

37E35700-10C7-46C5-A1B1-2345740D7A93.gif.cd536d59dfeb5d08f9e001f0763015af.gif

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4 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

Well I'll will be damned. The post had nothing to do with WHY YOU or anyone COLLECTS COMICS the question of the post was it a good time to invest, that's called reading comprehension. Which I have to assume you have a lot of from reading all those pre classic horror & crome comics.  Hope that makes sense to ya.

I see that you conveniently left out this part of my post;

Quote
   13 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

this hobby like all other hobbies is driven by one thing....... perception.

So doesn't that refer to motivation?

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1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Well, since we are talking about investment and your love for Iron Man, had your income increased to the level that you was the lucky winner of this book here:  :screwy:

iro1.5897a.jpg

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/689571

Looking back now a few years later on this auction result of $15K for this relatively common book (other than grade), I believe the consignor made out a lot better than the eventual winner of this copy here.  hm  :tonofbricks:

But it's the only 9.8 in the UNIVERSE!

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13 minutes ago, William-James88 said:
2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Looking back now a few years later on this auction result of $15K for this relatively common book (other than grade), I believe the consignor made out a lot better than the eventual winner of this copy here.  hm  :tonofbricks:

But it's the only 9.8 in the UNIVERSE!

Well, lucky for the winner then as he no longer has to worry about being all cold and alone by himself in the entire universe.  :cry:

Especially since he now has 3 other copies in equivalent grade to keep himself company.  :acclaim:

Looks like if he wants to have the only copy in the UNIVERSE, he going to have to try to find a CGC 4.5 graded copy or lower which are probably as scarce as hen's teeth.  doh!  lol

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13 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, since we are talking about investment and your love for Iron Man, had your income increased to the level that you was the lucky winner of this book here:  :screwy:

iro1.5897a.jpg

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/689571

Looking back now a few years later on this auction result of $15K for this relatively common book (other than grade), I believe the consignor made out a lot better than the eventual winner of this copy here.  hm  :tonofbricks:

I believe it landed in the top Iron Man #1-100 set of NEWGIZMO. I am perfectly happy with my copy. Which at $260 may have bee a lot more than others would have paid I was happy with it.

IM30_96.jpg

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14 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, since we are talking about investment and your love for Iron Man, had your income increased to the level that you was the lucky winner of this book here:  :screwy:

iro1.5897a.jpg

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/689571

Looking back now a few years later on this auction result of $15K for this relatively common book (other than grade), I believe the consignor made out a lot better than the eventual winner of this copy here.  hm  :tonofbricks:

That's a lousy purchase if you want to get your money back.  However, if you want the best CGC certified collection of Iron Man, it's a great purchase.  It's not on me to judge what someone spends their money on.  That's the great thing about this HOBBY.  It's not rational, and you get to buy what you like.  If it increases in value, that's gravy.  

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34 minutes ago, skybolt said:

I've been collecting Golden Age books for the past 17 years. The market across various genres seldom goes up on a straight trajectory year after year. What typically happens is that as soon as a key book, title and/or character gets hot, prices go up significantly over a short period of time (usually between 6 months to 2 years). What happens then is that current owners  will see the positive trend and decide to sell their books for a nice profit. Once the interest and supply (which is usually fairly small for GA books) dies down a little, prices will usually stagnate for several years before the next jump. The reason for this that a.) collectors move onto to other hot books and b.) the current owners who spent a bundle purchasing a key book are more likely to keep it for several years until they see the next price jump. I remember having a conversation with either Josh (Comiclink) or Vince (Metro) and their advice was to always hold onto a book for at least 5 to 7 years to let it go through this cycle.

This is a well articulated POV, though the cycle may be a bit slower for some genres 

Edited by GreatCaesarsGhost

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17 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

This is a well articulated POV, though the cycle may be a bit slower for some genres 

After nearly a weeks worth of comments have you decided anything about your original posting?
 

I’m just curious if this was a exercise on others opinions for fun or if you’re considering your future purchase more frugally now... 

 

ABD9B5C5-0FC3-4F8D-85D3-65E06C5F166E.gif.f90329956b18b5a9ce983fe4a7eeac81.gif

Edited by N e r V

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Fact @MrBedrock @Cat-Man_America when I had my mommy order this for me:whee: I bought book's from the stand to my collection to my friends collection I lost 30k plus. I even cut some books more to get a better cut on the stamp :makepoint: :whistle:

Marvel value Stamp.jpg

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