any theories on why prices seem to be dropping with a lot of books? 5 5

[atomised]

So I've noticed as I sift through GPA that prices seem to have been soft for alot of SA keys towards the end of 2019 and a bit of that trend carrying into 2020.  Not one particular book per say, but really quite a few keys.  I've heard a variety of theories and none of them totally resonate with me so I thought I would take the boards.  Feel free to challenge that they are not  dropping, it's just been my observation.

Some theories I've heard are:

various end of the world/economic panic type scenarios and collectors getting spooked on buying books

some collectors are buying retro video games instead

books being taxed at various auction sites

a bit of hangover after the culmination of the Avengers movies

a correction was due after tons of growth

The Titans almost making it to the Superbowl w Ryan Tannehill at QB (see end of the world theory)

 

[WolverineX]

2 hours ago, atomised said:

So I've noticed as I sift through GPA that prices seem to have been soft for alot of SA keys towards the end of 2019 and a bit of that trend carrying into 2020.  Not one particular book per say, but really quite a few keys.  I've heard a variety of theories and none of them totally resonate with me so I thought I would take the boards.  Feel free to challenge that they are not  dropping, it's just been my observation.

Some theories I've heard are:

various end of the world/economic panic type scenarios and collectors getting spooked on buying books

some collectors are buying retro video games instead

books being taxed at various auction sites

a bit of hangover after the culmination of the Avengers movies

a correction was due after tons of growth

The Titans almost making it to the Superbowl w Ryan Tannehill at QB (see end of the world theory)

 

Correction and ebay tax.

 

whats the end of the world theory with the Titans?  I mean they have the best running back in the NFL.

[Hamlet]

Prices got pretty crazy at the peak last year.  Seems like a return to a little sanity to me.

[Gotham Kid]

supply outgrowing demand

taxes levied doesn't help either.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Gotham Kid

[TrayKnight]

1 hour ago, Wolverinex said:

Correction and ebay tax.

 

whats the end of the world theory with the Titans?  I mean they have the best running back in the NFL.

I agree....those Ebay taxes are a killer.

[tth2]

58 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

supply outgrowing demand

Ding ding ding!

If prices and supply keep going up, particularly when high grade copies are being manufactured as fast as the presses can work, at some point supply outstrips demand at those price points, and prices fall until a new supply-demand equilibrium is reached.  It's simple economics.

What'll be even more interesting is if/when the new supply-demand equilibrium turns out to be at a much lower price level than people had expected.    

[RUSSIAN BEAR]

People found out you can make way more in the stock market. The only collectible I would buy now is basketball PRIZM for rookie cards. I cleaned up on Zion, even so the stock market is a way better bet. 

Edited January 24, 2020 by RUSSIAN BEAR

[Terry E. Gibbs]

It was always the old "only buy it if you love it, because if anything happens you could own it for a longtime". I think people came in who ignored that. As a DC guy I saw lots of people buying up DC keys who had never read the books and never will. Why sit on something you don't care about. Many of these people can still get out now while they are ahead.

 

and I agree with the manufacture of high grade through pressing to death. Think it is happening now at lower and lower price points.

Comics art, old Corvettes, buy what you love, never fails - best revenge ever on your children.

[RUSSIAN BEAR]

4 hours ago, atomised said:

So I've noticed as I sift through GPA that prices seem to have been soft for alot of SA keys towards the end of 2019 and a bit of that trend carrying into 2020.  Not one particular book per say, but really quite a few keys.

A lot of them got bounces because of the Avengers movies(like TOS 39, JIM 83 and others ) that will never happen again, than look at the DC Silver age comics they were brought up because of the CW shows. The CW shows have very poor ratings(like very terrible) and from what I hear the CW network is salivating to cancel those shows and concentrate on more normal soaps.

Edited January 24, 2020 by RUSSIAN BEAR

[Aman619]

1 hour ago, RUSSIAN BEAR said:

People found out you can make way more in the stock market. The only collectible I would buy now is basketball PRIZM for rookie cards. I cleaned up on Zion, even so the stock market is a way better bet. 

Yes...  same thing happened in the 90s.  The market was rising so fast (Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, etc) big ticket GA books stagnated... (Silver Age Keys weren’t worth more than 5-10K back then and were affected, but the GA 20-50K sales dried up. 
 

but since history never repeats itself the same way, this must be only part of the problem.  I still see amazing prices for a lot of books happening, and haven’t done the research, but wouldn’t be surprised if there was an actual slowdown, especially for movie TV hot issues. Then again, sales stage a bit in December too.  

[ronnieramone]

Personally, I am excited about prices dropping, though I haven't really noticed that happening myself quite yet on anything I am hunting for.  If prices do drop, that's obviously the best time to buy.  I would expect that prices should dip for a bit, though.  There's a huge gap between major Marvel films, which cuts out a lot of fly-by-night speculation bumps.  It's an election year so many people are holding back from riskier investments due to fear and uncertainty in the economy.  Banks are lowering credit limits in anticipation of a recession (which of course manufactures a recession).  This activity reduces the spending power of many potential buyers.  Also, not all buyers are investors; some are collectors.  For many collectors, once they own a book, they are not likely to buy another copy of that same book.  The demand for certain issues is therefore permanently reduced.  Pressing is absolutely impacting the supply chain, raising the scarcity of lower-end, affordable books while lowering the barrier to entry on many higher-end grades.  Really, there are a lot of factors, but they result in lower overall demand, a lower tolerance for high prices and unprecedented variations in supply.

I would expect a slight downward trend on many books probably through the election or at least right on up to the next big hype.  Obviously, if Keanu Reeves is confirmed to portray any comic character in a film, you can pretty much take that character's first, second and third appearances to the bank.

Long-term, though, certain key books are going to keep going up and up.  I don't believe for one second that TOS 39 has seen its last big price hike just because RDJ has left the films.  There is a whole generation of Iron Man fans who will be getting out of college and finding good jobs, probably in the tech industry, paying off their student loans and who will have grown up dreaming of owning that book.  They will be on the market in the next few years looking for a copy and that issue is still a bargain right now.  It won't be that way forever.

[comicginger1789]

Worst time to sell books is just after Christmas and into January/February. Prices traditionally drop across the board. People are cash strapped from the holidays and not as eager to spend right away. It is why I avoid selling anything key between December 25th and March 1st. Once March and April hit, people start looking for stuff, prepping for cons or just get back into the heavier buying.

At least that is what I have noticed. It could be some of the other factors as well.

[drbanner]

Maybe prices on comic book collectibles peaked in 2019? Bronze and Silver keys blew up 2015 - 2018, key and in-demand gold blew up 2018 - 2019, what's next? When compared to minimum wage, average annual earnings of college grads, price of the average new car, price of a gallon of milk, commodity prices, etc.,. it becomes clear that the pool of buyers for a NM Hulk 181, a VG Amazing Fantasy 15, etc.,. has shrunk considerably that last 5 years.

The stock market has been on a tear for 10 years so that may have fueled some of the gains, but buying/selling stocks to buy/sell comics seems to have been about a zero-sum game during the expansion. Dunno...we'll see what happens in the hobby this year.

[jeffreyk]

This is interesting as it seems whenever there is a low sale, it is often followed by a higher sale or vice versa.  I think a lot of it has to do with the time of year and also, there seems to be auctions all the time, not just Ebay and Heritage.  Many times these auctions run concurrently.  Between mycomicshop, pedigree, comicconect, comiclink, hakes, etc., there are numerous auctions.  As for videogames affecting comic sales, maybe...i don't know.  I do know that I sold my old video games to fund silverage comic book purchases!

I think mostly it is the time of the year and come tax refund time in March and April and the convention season, prices will become more stable.   Of course, that is just my opinion!

[tth2]

7 hours ago, RUSSIAN BEAR said:

People found out you can make way more in the stock market. The only collectible I would buy now is basketball PRIZM for rookie cards. I cleaned up on Zion, even so the stock market is a way better bet. 

Gee, your English suddenly got a whole lot better.

[piper]

59 minutes ago, comicginger1789 said:

Worst time to sell books is just after Christmas and into January/February. Prices traditionally drop across the board. People are cash strapped from the holidays and not as eager to spend right away. It is why I avoid selling anything key between December 25th and March 1st. Once March and April hit, people start looking for stuff, prepping for cons or just get back into the heavier buying.

At least that is what I have noticed. It could be some of the other factors as well.

Yep.

[Krismusic]

10 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

supply outgrowing demand

taxes levied doesn't help either.

I think the OP said SA key.. so unless we have a time machine to go back and make more SA books I dont think supply growing is a thing as there is a finite amount of SA books out there... 

[marvelmaniac]

8 hours ago, RUSSIAN BEAR said:

People found out you can make way more in the stock market. The only collectible I would buy now is basketball PRIZM for rookie cards. I cleaned up on Zion, even so the stock market is a way better bet. 

Wait, What???!!! 

You can make money with Comic Books?   

I just sit outside the 7-11 with a Slurpee and read them, who would pay more than 12 cents for a comic book??? Thats Just Crazy!!!  

[Krismusic]

as for the soft market.. it could be burn out from movies or the end of the Avengers and most of the speculators or investment people are selling now.. also sales are usually softer before con season but pick right back up.. 

I think the toy grading business is maybe pulling a bit from the comic market too now. As I've recently started to pick up some old toys I use to have and I saw some of them graded and selling for quite a bit... I am new to the grading toys  thing but I'm starting to investigate and check it out more but it's starting to become large and I think its the same guys as the Video games guys doing it as well... they seem busy too... 

[comicginger1789]

I will go out on a limb and project a down year all around for "keys". I feel that the movie buzz is waning and people who wanted certain keys will already have them or be looking for the next big thing. However, because the movie docket from Marvel this year projects to be lower key (Black Widow the biggest "star" hero to be seen on screen??), and the TV shows not airing until Fall, it could be a late surge. So maybe we see dips in books that were speculated on hard recently, with the exception of a few.