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1,664 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, rjpb said:

If there is one part of this hobby that could end up crashing hard, it's the nosebleed prices paid for 9.9 copies of books that are fairly common in 9.8. I don't follow this market closely (barely at all), but am I wrong in getting the sense that such books have a history of frequently having a negative ROI after a record price is paid. It seems in other areas of the collecting market, there is an increased awareness that HGC isn't always the nicest looking copy, but not when it comes to this type of nonsense. 

Don't forget that one hard shake or an accidental drop of the slab and that 9.9 is no longer a 9.9 in any way beyond what the label says. 

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1 hour ago, october said:

9.9 buying is the definition of label chasing.

Yep. At least a 10 in the corner looks kind of impressive to a neophyte collector or casual fan, like getting 100% on a test. It's still label chasing, but one can pretend it's the finest that could possibly exist, the pinnacle of grade collecting. Outside the label chasing community, a 9.9 doesn't look anymore special than a 9.8, just as getting a 99 on test isn't really anymore impressive than getting a 98, or a 96 for that matter.  

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8 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

I wouldn't trade a tec34 (the least valuable and least interesting story line preRobin) for a dozen CGC 10.0 copies of Transformers 1

Someone paid 44k for that copy of Transformers. To me it is worth $44.

Please refrain from comments such as this until AFTER I get my copies graded and sold.

Thank you for your cooperation.

 

:foryou:

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3 hours ago, buttock said:

New money has been driving growth in all eras.  There's ridiculous amounts of money out there in the hands of people barely old enough to rent a car.  Their perspective is different than that of us old-timers.  We look at books that are now $5000 and say, "I can remember when that was $50".  They don't have that view and to them that's a slam dunk $5000 book that has a track record of growth, so why not pay more?  Especially when they don't have any patience to wait for another copy.  As a collector, one thing you have to accept if you want to keep getting stuff is that prices go up.  

is this why?? new money entering the field? thats what some others are saying. i honestly have no idea. 

well, i do imagine a billionaire's conglomerate somewhere buying everything and trying to artificially inflate values across the board. but i admit that its paranoid and highly unlikely on the scale required to affect prices on virtually everything. 

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I do think it is newer money driving up these 9.8s/9.9s.  It is buyers who finally have real money either through a successful career or perhaps an inheritance but don't appreciate true scarcity and what the functional difference between 9.6 and 9.8 is.  I know one guy, and he is a great guy, but he is obsessed with having the highest graded of every book he had as a kid.  He will pay thousands for 9.8s when the 9.4s/9.6s are hundreds, and then post piles of them on FB.  I don't understand and and I don't think it will end well.  But then again someone just made $44,000 on a Transformers 1 in 9.9 and someone else made $12,600 on a Secret Wars 9.9 so what the heck do I know?!?  There are 3 9.9 Secret Wars copies, so I can't even fathom the rationale for this, it isn't even unique.  

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4 hours ago, Ryan. said:

Don't forget that one hard shake or an accidental drop of the slab and that 9.9 is no longer a 9.9 in any way beyond what the label says. 

I would assume you must be referring to that rather infamous story about the mishap with the CGC 9.9 graded cpy of Hulk 181 here?  :fear:  :tonofbricks:  :cry:

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3 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

well, i do imagine a billionaire's conglomerate somewhere buying everything and trying to artificially inflate values across the board. but i admit that its paranoid and highly unlikely on the scale required to affect prices on virtually everything. 

Well, from my reading of the original post, it seem pretty clear to me that he was not talking about just one or two specific billionaires driving up the entire collectibles marketplace.  :gossip:

He was referring more to an entire generation of younger people with a different way of thinking and a different perspective on what's taking place in the world as compared to most of us old fogies on the board here, and I would tend to agree with his point of view here.  (thumbsu

Edited by lou_fine
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1 hour ago, www.alexgross.com said:

is this why?? new money entering the field? thats what some others are saying. i honestly have no idea. 

well, i do imagine a billionaire's conglomerate somewhere buying everything and trying to artificially inflate values across the board. but i admit that its paranoid and highly unlikely on the scale required to affect prices on virtually everything. 

It's a significant part of the reason.   

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1 hour ago, batman_fan said:

but if you owned $2 million in bitcoin wouldn't you be tempted to cash some of it out and put it into something else?

Myself, I would go for Peanuts strips, hookers, and liquor  

Wouldn't we all, but, if you have that much, there's no need to be careful.  Go ahead and splurge a little.

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30 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

I would assume you must be referring to that rather infamous story about the mishap with the CGC 9.9 graded cpy of Hulk 181 here?  :fear:  :tonofbricks:  :cry:

Certainly that example, yes, but even more broadly than that. The difference between a 9.9 and 9.8 is so miniscule as to be almost undetectable. People spending tens of thousands of dollars on 9.9s, I believe, are greatly underestimating how much a comic gets bounced around, even inside of a slab, particularly during the shipping process. I suspect that the vast majority of these copies, if they were to ever be regraded, would end up 9.8s or even 9.6s.

For those who know the Signature Series world, it's generally advised to not crack open 9.8s for signature events due to how often grades come back lower. I won't even send in 9.8s in old generation slabs to upgrade to newer slabs since CGC reserves the right to inspect and regrade books sent for reholders. 

The grade on the label is merely a snapshot in time. 

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3 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Prices are insane on some much stuff right now but if you owned $2 million in bitcoin wouldn't you be tempted to cash some of it out and put it into something else?

Myself, I would go for Peanuts strips, hookers, and liquor but to each their own. 

The people I know that are into crypto don't want out at all.  

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I certainly do not have the time or desire, but it would be cool if CL had a running total of sorts to see how much has been spent in a given auction, with possibly Average $$ per book as well and even a total of unique bidders (or unique by book).I am sure they use this data themselves to attract more copies of certain books but having something the end user could see would create more sense of urgency. Two bidders running up a book to the moon is one thing, 15 unique bidders doing it is all together different.  

I know other houses have a running total, but CL looks to have the edge on offerings YTD this year. 

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It would be interesting to get some insight from the auction houses as to who's bidding up and buying these books... not names of course, but general insights.  They're information would be less speculative.  Would make a good Overstreet market report (hint, hint)! 

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On 2/27/2021 at 2:21 AM, Gotham Kid said:

The current prices paid for Bronze Age (and later) Marvels are beyond stupid. The supply of ultra high grade copies is endless.

I agree. The market is being driven by people who have too much money. I'll just stick to early bronze age DC and the occasional GA book. Books that are actually hard to find in high grade. Try to remember Marvel almost went belly up and there is still a flood of Marvel issues sitting around waiting to be graded and sold to the fleeceable. An owner of a storage unit facility I knew found a unit crammed with those things. He didn't know whether to toss them or keep them. At that time, they were useless. But there were tons of them. I imagine his is only one story to be told. You deep pocketed people are going to Beanie Baby the values into the ground.

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21 hours ago, Ryan. said:

The grade on the label is merely a snapshot in time. 

That is well put. And a subjective snapshot in time at that. People who have a lot of money certainly have a right to spend it as they see fit. And even if this IS a bubble (Oh it most certainly is) and the bubble pops (Oh it most certainly will), they will just sell at a loss and move on to something else. Leaving potential shmucks like me holding the deflating value bag. I mean, I am glad that GL/GA #76 has settled back to more realistic values in the last few years. They cry and moan about it, but that book swelled up really fat in high grade, then suddenly came back down. No longer the eye candy of the year, I guess. Everyone had one eventually and ho-hum.

I'm sort of glad all the attention is being focused on the 9.8 & 9.9 craze/phase. It doesn't seem to be impacting the grades below 9.4 very much. Good. That's a lot of the real collecting worlds sweet spot. These spazzoids aren't collecting the book. They are collecting the grade. Have at it. Drive an AF 15 9.0 to $500k. I was never in the running for that book anyway. It almost feels like there is a financial advisor telling some of these people with endless cash how to do this.

Also, what is the ratio between CGC books v other grading company books seeing record sales?  I mean, I have two Frankenstein Alive graded 10.0's signed by Wrightson and Niles. Should I ask $10k a piece? Or $100,000? Because they ARE both graded 10.0. Both witnessed Niles and Wrightson signatures. Ohhhh. So sorry. They AREN'T CGC graded so THAT means they are POS's, right? Even though they look like they were printed in a vacuum and slid down the chute being signed by Wrightson and Niles on the way by straight into a slab? No? Doesn't matter? They still suck? Pssshhh. Because real POC books like virtually any Transformer book should see a ridiculous sale for over $40k. Graded by CGC. Starting to see a pattern here. hat whole thing about other grading companies being insignificant is being kept alive by CGC and its adherents. ALL grading companies had trouble finding the right spot for a given grade in the beginning. Seems like CGC moves its grading criteria around to suit them. Adding cute li'l stickers and labels. Stan Lee labels and so forth. So? Just grade the damned book correctly.

Also, it seems like there is something else funny about the early bidding activity. It didn't used to be so many bidding all at once in the first day or two. Now, there is a flurry of action early. Historically, it has been slow up until the end, then it's a feeding frenzy. Then it becomes down to two bidders like the final scene in "Highlander". Now it's like a bunch of people who know nothing about auctions doing the early bidding. Or maybe even employees of a certain grading company who are free as a bird to bid whenever and however much they want to. How many people here have actually lost a book they wanted when they were the highest bidder at 2 seconds left? Or 1? Or closing bell? Allowing for snipe bidding after the close of an auction teeters on illegal if not sketchy. I lost a Bat #6  one year because of that. I couldn't refresh the page to see and enter a bid fast enough. Some bot took the book away from me when I was clearly the last bidder with the highest bid. After the bell rang.

Guess I don't like to feel like I am in Thunderdome while bidding for books.

Edited by Randall Ries
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22 hours ago, Ryan. said:

Certainly that example, yes, but even more broadly than that. The difference between a 9.9 and 9.8 is so miniscule as to be almost undetectable. People spending tens of thousands of dollars on 9.9s, I believe, are greatly underestimating how much a comic gets bounced around, even inside of a slab, particularly during the shipping process. I suspect that the vast majority of these copies, if they were to ever be regraded, would end up 9.8s or even 9.6s.

If the HG copies get bounced around that much, wouldn't that mean all the 9.8s get damaged on the way to CGC and already end up in a 9.6 or 9.4 holder?

And I think that 9.9 Hulk 181 would hit at least $300K today, regardless of past stories about it.

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