• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Market correction , will we see any effect on comics?
7 7

477 posts in this topic

22 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

Comic keys going to drop these next few months?

A few other factors to consider in the past year.  Sales tax.  I'm hearing a big impact in the way people strategically bid and buy.  A postage rate increase, especially the international rates. 

The sales tax collection translates into up to a 10% drop in bid amounts to take that into consideration. If you would ordinarily think nothing of hitting a BIN for $1000, now, you're thinking "I'll offer $900 because once sales tax and postage factors in, I'm paying $1000". And as a buyer, you are. By offering $900 or bidding $900, technically, you're paying $1000. .

I wonder how much cause and effect there is to this for the prices being realized and collected by GP in the past year. $1000 for a book two years ago, now = $900 for the book + extras. Buyer is still paying $1000, but the sale is for $900, a 10% drop in value, but technically not a drop. A correction in how bidding is approached in the new Ebay sales tax collection era.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, James J Johnson said:

So since you're offended by my quoting you and responding, I'll remove it and post it without your quote as a reference. And then I'll remove this one too after you read it. That work?

Not offended... was kind of confused as to what you were doing.  We are good.  Sorry if it seems I overreacted. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Michelangelo said:

A market crash will see the value of comics drop as people lose jobs and have to liquidate their books to make ends meet. (e.g. 2008-2009)

Its been mentioned here a million times the filling out of the census throughout this timeframe ~ 08 09 that could have influenced pricing more than anything in the economy. The frustrating thing is its impossible to have a definitive answer. If indeed there was a census filling coincide with a severe economic shock then to what do you attribute value decline? I would think 10 more high grade copies of any given book you thought was "lowish" in high grades would torpedo value more than macro economics. But who knows???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Michelangelo said:

A market crash will see the value of comics drop as people lose jobs and have to liquidate their books to make ends meet. (e.g. 2008-2009)

This past week is a correction, not a crash. Comic sales may slow as people are on the sidelines waiting to see how things play out.

I don't anticipate this week's stock market dip to trickle into comic book values

Comic prices in 2008/2009 held steady and did not drop. Which of course isn't terribly relevant to what's going on today so who knows if they will this time but during the last recession, there was no recession in comics. People need to get a grip with this whole virus thing, it is being blown completely out of proportion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, LordRahl said:

Comic prices in 2008/2009 held steady and did not drop. Which of course isn't terribly relevant to what's going on today so who knows if they will this time but during the last recession, there was no recession in comics. People need to get a grip with this whole virus thing, it is being blown completely out of proportion.

I agree.  To me it seemed like investors in 08/09 were taking their money out of stocks and looking at alternative places to invest.  Comics saw a surge in buyers.  That's what my memory is telling me.  Am I wrong?

At the time I thought "Wow, comics seem to be recession proof"

Edited by gadzukes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/28/2020 at 4:58 PM, MGsimba77 said:

I wouldn't think so. Comiclink had some impressive auction results this week. 

By "impressive", would you be referring to books like this CGC 5.5 graded copy of AF 15 here:

https://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FDEFAULT.ASP%3FFocused%3D1%26pg%3D16%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%23Item_1373725&id=1373725&itemType=0

RAD0344120191213_132939.jpg

Looks like this mid-grade copy here managed to fetched $36,500 when we had a few CGC 5.0 graded copies selling in the $50K+ range a couple of years ago.  hm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/28/2020 at 7:00 PM, fastballspecial said:

Collectibles in an extended down market are the first to go. It will become a buyers market fast.

Now the question is when is it a down market? Right now a really bad week. Another key look is
volume. Volume keeps increasing next week and continues to fall then yep there is a problem. 

Diversification is the key. 

 

As per my bolded highlights to your comments above, I would tend to agree with you if the equity markets continues to experience continuing big movements downwards over an extended period of time going forward.  (thumbsu

If not and the markets hold or start to show signs of movements back up, I think the impact on the collectibles market would be very limited.  After all, have we not already have 2 or 3 market corrections over the past 2 years?  If I remember correctly, were the North American markets not only in correction territory, but also touching on the verge og bear market territory back on Chiristmas Eve of 2018 and I certainly don't remember a crash occurring in the comics collectibles market at the time.  hm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Buzzetta said:
On 2/28/2020 at 9:07 PM, Wolverinex said:

It's a correction now but the virus has barely disrupted life in the US. If it worsens can you imagine what happens if a major city like nyc gets quarantined?

Somehow, I don't think that would happen.   Could it happen?  Anything could happen.  But I don't think that could happen. 

Yes, it would appear that the news media have really hyped this Coronavirus right to the hilt, leaving some people with the impression of the world becoming like one of those si-fi apocalyptic worlds or like the a version of the Walking Dead.  I guess I am not surprised since this is a new variant strain with flu like symptons which the experts do not yet fully understand and able to get a handle on so far. (thumbsu

Yet, as I posted on another thread on the SA boards, just imagine what would happen if the media went and focus on the daily body counts for the seasonal flu instead:

12 hours ago, lou_fine said:

If you look at the underlying numbers themselves, I would tend to agree with you.  I believe most people are overreacting to the current situation because of all of the media and news scarce hype, coupled with the fact that this is a new variant strain which they do not understand yet.

I can just imagine what people's reactions would be and where the stock market would be if they led off the top of the hour news everyday with the daily body count stats for the regular seasonal flu.  Especially since the United States alone by itself had something like 45 million flu cases with 61,000 associated deaths due to just the regular seasonal flu for last year:

https://cnsnews.com/article/international/michael-w-chapman/cdc-estimate-45-million-flu-cases-61000-flu-associated

So, if the news media focused on the 45 million seasonal flu cases as compared to the 66 Coronavirus cases and the 61,000 associated deaths as compared to the zero Coronaviru related deaths to date so far, I can just see the Dow and S&P approaching zero already.  hm

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Yes, it would appear that the news media have really hyped this Coronavirus right to the hilt, leaving some people with the impression of the world becoming like one of those si-fi apocalyptic worlds or like the a version of the Walking Dead.  I guess I am not surprised since this is a new variant strain with flu like symptons which the experts do not yet fully understand and able to get a handle on so far. (thumbsu

Yet, as I posted on another thread on the SA boards, just imagine what would happen if the media went and focus on the daily body counts for the seasonal flu instead:

 

Ehhh.... that's one way to look at it... I disagree with this stance on it.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, lou_fine said:

By "impressive", would you be referring to books like this CGC 5.5 graded copy of AF 15 here:

https://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FDEFAULT.ASP%3FFocused%3D1%26pg%3D16%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%23Item_1373725&id=1373725&itemType=0

RAD0344120191213_132939.jpg

Looks like this mid-grade copy here managed to fetched $36,500 when we had a few CGC 5.0 graded copies selling in the $50K+ range a couple of years ago.  hm

Yeah you pointed out a dud that's for sure. AF15 had a wild run up last few years. The 2 auctions I was involved in certainly went bonkers! Others I was following ended on the high end so just my anecdotal view 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, lou_fine said:

By "impressive", would you be referring to books like this CGC 5.5 graded copy of AF 15 here:

https://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FDEFAULT.ASP%3FFocused%3D1%26pg%3D16%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%23Item_1373725&id=1373725&itemType=0

RAD0344120191213_132939.jpg

Looks like this mid-grade copy here managed to fetched $36,500 when we had a few CGC 5.0 graded copies selling in the $50K+ range a couple of years ago.  hm

I really feel bad for this seller. :eek:  He picked the wrong week to have his AF15 auction end.

The buyer on the other hand KNOWS he got the deal of the century.  Seller could probably flip this the day he receives it and make a tidy sum.

I'm glad I don't have any major comics in any auctions right now.  Too much volitility in the markets to confidently sell right now.

Edited by gadzukes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, lou_fine said:

By "impressive", would you be referring to books like this CGC 5.5 graded copy of AF 15 here:

https://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FDEFAULT.ASP%3FFocused%3D1%26pg%3D16%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%23Item_1373725&id=1373725&itemType=0

RAD0344120191213_132939.jpg

Looks like this mid-grade copy here managed to fetched $36,500 when we had a few CGC 5.0 graded copies selling in the $50K+ range a couple of years ago.  hm

Soooo... the sale of ONE book now determines the health of the market?!?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, lou_fine said:

By "impressive", would you be referring to books like this CGC 5.5 graded copy of AF 15 here:

https://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FDEFAULT.ASP%3FFocused%3D1%26pg%3D16%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%23Item_1373725&id=1373725&itemType=0

 

Looks like this mid-grade copy here managed to fetched $36,500 when we had a few CGC 5.0 graded copies selling in the $50K+ range a couple of years ago.  hm

If you're going to cherry pick numbers for ONE book to make your point... may I present this ASM 11 which sold for $23K in 9.2 which according to GPA is $8K higher than a 9.6 sold for just a couple of years ago.

https://comiclink.com/Auctions/item.asp?back=%2FComicTrack%2FAuctions%2Fbids.asp%3F_SORT%3DYES%26pg%3D2%26f1%3Di.Title%2C%2Bi.IssueNumber%2C%2Bi.Condition%26ODire1%3DASC%26f2%3DEnd2%26ODire2%3DDESC%26f3%3DStatus2%26ODire3%3DASC&id=1381505

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, gadzukes said:
20 hours ago, LordRahl said:

Comic prices in 2008/2009 held steady and did not drop. Which of course isn't terribly relevant to what's going on today so who knows if they will this time but during the last recession, there was no recession in comics. People need to get a grip with this whole virus thing, it is being blown completely out of proportion.

I agree.  To me it seemed like investors in 08/09 were taking their money out of stocks and looking at alternative places to invest.  Comics saw a surge in buyers.  That's what my memory is telling me.  Am I wrong?

At the time I thought "Wow, comics seem to be recession proof"

Having looked at GPA for major titles in Marvel at least, they did seem unaffected for most part in 08 09. There is however a smattering of keys and non keys that saw a downturn ~2010 but not that specific 08 09. They stayed down for several years after 2010. Most notably IH181 but just in 9.8 did have a sizable drop in 2010. I suspect that may have been census related since every other grade was unaffected.

It is comforting to know with as severe an event as 2008 it didn't result in widespread comics recession. Doesn't guarantee anything in future but it is reassuring 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MGsimba77 said:

They ending tonight? 

yes, ended already

IM 1 9.0 $200-$400 under gpa

IH181 (I think it was 4.0) also $200-$400 under gpa

asm slabs at 60-70% gpa

asm 1 cgc went fmv or a little over though

archie annual 4 cgc 8.0 was about 2/3rds gpa but not a lot of sales to compare

that is after fees, not before

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Bird said:

Lots of low prices in the HA auction tonight

Based upon your post here, so I flip over to the Heritage Auction to find the first 4 books being Ace Comics with the Phantom covers and guess what:

Golden Age (1938-1955):Adventure, Ace Comics #150 (David McKay Publications, 1949) CGC FN- 5.5 Cream to off-white pages....

This copy here with a condition guide price of under $25 ends up seling for $432;, with the other 3 Phantom Ace copies also selling for big multiples to condition guide.  :whatthe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, lou_fine said:

Based upon your post here, so I flip over to the Heritage Auction to find the first 4 books being Ace Comics with the Phantom covers and guess what:

Golden Age (1938-1955):Adventure, Ace Comics #150 (David McKay Publications, 1949) CGC FN- 5.5 Cream to off-white pages....

This copy here with a condition guide price of under $25 ends up seling for $432;, with the other 3 Phantom Ace copies also selling for big multiples to condition guide.  :whatthe:

you know better than to quote guide! gpa on a 3.0 is $312 in 9/2018

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
7 7