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May Heritage Auction Really Shaping Up!
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405 posts in this topic

53 minutes ago, glendgold said:

I screen shot this and hope on Memorial Day to raise a glass to your prediction.

Hope you're right. But I think there's going to be a different outcome. 

 

 

What is frightening about this, is how infectious it is and the speed that it spreads. Italy was only 21 cases on Feb 21 - 28 days later, it is 41k, indicating that it approximately doubles every 2.8 to 3 days. See the chart below (source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) ;What this means that a healthcare system which is coping at, say 25% capacity, will within a week be overwhelmed by the sheer number of new infections (assuming that it doubles every 3 days). And the mortality rate is around 10%. It doesn't help that the incubation period is 14 days which mean an undetected carrier can go spreading and the impact would only be know in 2 weeks which by then may be far too late. We are experienced the 2nd wave now and getting ready for the 3rd wave. These waves are a result of a couple of religious gatherings, wave 2 was 16k people from Feb 27 to Mar 1 and the next wave will be from another gathering on 30k on March 6. With an incubation period of 14 days, it will take that long for the new infections to show up.  

Anti-malarial drugs are still in testing stage. Hot weather do not kill the virus - where I am based, it is tropical weather all year round, 85 to 95 F. Our rate of infection is similar to Italy's. Hence, why our entire country has enforced a restricted movement order, a step away from a complete lock down for 2 weeks, starting on March 18. Nothing gives immunity unless you get it first and recovered but then you may be susceptible to another strain. 

If it is party as usual, the consequences will be deathly due to incubation period. Parties and social gatherings will just encourage new infection clusters. Hence, lock down and minimising social interactions (based on what South Korea, China and Taiwan did) will help to break the cycle of replication. UK has seen a  big u-turn in their policy, from March 12 when their strategy of herd immunity was introduced. 5 days later, they u-turn and adopted an aggressive strategy of self isolation and limiting social interactions (probably frighten by the fact that cases were doubling every 2 days).  Over my working career of 25+years, I never had to work from home over an extended period (now 2 weeks but potentially could stretch to a month). So it is very hard to anticipate what will happen next but the scale and scope of this economic standstill will have an enormous resultant impact. Let's see how this pans out by May 25 - Memorial Day. The weeks to come will certainly be memorable.  

Apologies for the long rambling note but the staying at home is making me extremely bored. 

Corona.JPG

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2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Look at the Gil Elvgren lots in the June 2008 Illo Sale and then again at the ones in the March 2009 Illo sale.  Everything was in the $60Ks to $200K+ in the former and then crashing down to the $20Ks to $40Ks in the latter.  One of the pieces that sold for $41K in 2006 before prices took off into the 6-figures crashed back down to $27K in the 2009 sale. 

I'm pretty sure Heritage has scrubbed the archive at some point.  I'm almost positive that one of the $200K+ Elvgrens from 2008 re-sold for 5-figures in 2009.  

It did, I recall that.   But I don’t think heritage did anything unscrupulous.   I’ve noticed a very small percentage (less than 1% of items ) disappear.    The ones I’m thinking of were not high value or interesting to most.    But they used to be there and now they aren’t .   Must be some reason but I’m not sure what it is.

Edited by Bronty
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12 hours ago, glendgold said:

I screen shot this and hope on Memorial Day to raise a glass to your prediction.

Hope you're right. But I think there's going to be a different outcome. 

 

 

While Coronavirus is highly contagious, it is not a bad disease. This isn’t like a smallpox epidemic, or a really bad flu like the attack in 1918   (although any data on deaths has to be scaled due to the much smaller population back then). But shutting down all “nonessential business”? Tell workers their work isn’t essential when it puts food on their table.

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1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

While Coronavirus is highly contagious, it is not a bad disease. This isn’t like a smallpox epidemic, or a really bad flu like the attack in 1918   (although any data on deaths has to be scaled due to the much smaller population back then). But shutting down all “nonessential business”? Tell workers their work isn’t essential when it puts food on their table.

Coronavirus is 10x as deadly as seasonal influenza and has already killed half a dozen doctors in Italy working with the coronavirus patients who are overflowing the ICUs.

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21 hours ago, delekkerste said:

What you say about collectibles is spot-on (at least regarding comics/OA).  Sellers withdrew from the market, liquidity and sales volumes collapsed and the market was mostly just frozen for a while.  If the most powerful reflationary efforts of all-time hadn't kicked in relatively quickly (March 2009), the illiquidity would have eventually given way to obvious price losses.  But, since the downturn was sharp, but relatively short, we never got to that stage in comics and comic art. 

So in summary, you can't actually list any material pieces of comic OA sold during this period where the seller was gushing blood.

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1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

While Coronavirus is highly contagious, it is not a bad disease. This isn’t like a smallpox epidemic, or a really bad flu like the attack in 1918   (although any data on deaths has to be scaled due to the much smaller population back then). But shutting down all “nonessential business”? Tell workers their work isn’t essential when it puts food on their table.

I hope the sense of denial isn't as strong in the rest of the American population.  This is shocking and scary.

What businesses are these workers going to go back to?  The ones being laid off at the moment are those who work in services industries and leisure and travel.  Whether they want to come back to work or not, those businesses are not opening up again until people aren't scared anymore, and that won't happen until there has been a sustained period of no new infections.

If you think that the only thing causing Italian people to stay home right now is government restrictions, you're dead wrong.  You could lift the restrictions tomorrow and people would NOT be flocking back to restaurants and bars.

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41 minutes ago, tth2 said:

I hope the sense of denial isn't as strong in the rest of the American population.  This is shocking and scary.

 

there's less denial than a week ago in north america, but there's still denial.    I guess you can't get 100% compliance on anything without force.

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1 hour ago, tth2 said:

I hope the sense of denial isn't as strong in the rest of the American population.  This is shocking and scary.

I live in NYC and it's ridiculous how many people are out just walking around, hanging out with others in public, acting like nothing's going on.

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Just now, NC101 said:

I live in NYC and it's ridiculous how many people are out just walking around, hanging out with others in public, acting like nothing's going on.

I'm not seeing that at all.  I see the streets barely populated, people keeping a distance and wearing masks and gloves.  Looking out my window for a while now, I only saw 2 people go by, both wearing masks, one obviously coming back from a grocery store and the other one a delivery person of some type. 

Even the doorman of my apartment building is now physically walled off from the public and people in the building seem frightened to be around people.  At least twice in the past day I've seen people consciously divert and decide to take the stairs instead of sharing an elevator with me.  Sheesh.  

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Just now, delekkerste said:

I'm not seeing that at all.  I see the streets barely populated, people keeping a distance and wearing masks and gloves.  Looking out my window for a while now, I only saw 2 people go by, both wearing masks, one obviously coming back from a grocery store and the other one a delivery person of some type. 

Even the doorman of my apartment building is now physically walled off from the public and people in the building seem frightened to be around people.  At least twice in the past day I've seen people consciously divert and decide to take the stairs instead of sharing an elevator with me.  Sheesh.  

I'm glad to hear that people where you are are being so careful, even if it might be excessive. In beautiful Bedford-Stuyvesant that degree of caution has yet to set in, though I do see more people being careful than I did a week ago.

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1 hour ago, tth2 said:

So in summary, you can't actually list any material pieces of comic OA sold during this period where the seller was gushing blood.

Sure I can.  PM sent. 

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1 hour ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

This is a very irresponsible opinion and misinformed opinion as we are only in the early stage of its potential to spread.  (tsk)

I don't think you appreciate what a really bad disease is. Go read up on things like Polio epidemics, the death rate for Smallpox, the devastation caused by the Black Death, or even measles' impact without being vaccination. Even other diseases in the coronavirus "family" have a higher death rate, like SARS and MEARS.

I did not say it was a "good" disease. 

Edited by Rick2you2
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1 hour ago, tth2 said:

I hope the sense of denial isn't as strong in the rest of the American population.  This is shocking and scary.

What businesses are these workers going to go back to?  The ones being laid off at the moment are those who work in services industries and leisure and travel.  Whether they want to come back to work or not, those businesses are not opening up again until people aren't scared anymore, and that won't happen until there has been a sustained period of no new infections.

If you think that the only thing causing Italian people to stay home right now is government restrictions, you're dead wrong.  You could lift the restrictions tomorrow and people would NOT be flocking back to restaurants and bars.

I think you overestimate the capacity of unaffected people to stay in a War mode in this country. 

Italy seems to be an unusual situation. A relatively small country, it reports death rates exceeding the "official" death rate in China (who knows what it really is). Everyone is guessing at the reasons, although the lack of an early quarantine and crowd control measures is getting most of the blame. 

Service industries are suffering as of now. BUT, there are also reports that Amazon is desparate to hire workers to move product, along with other companies. Delivery jobs are also in demand.  I expect the same with product packaging, for delivery, with all the attendant support systems. The people may not like the jobs, but this presages a move to a more "remote" economic system which really rose with the growth of the internet.

 

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What constitutes a "small country"? Italy's population is #23, on a par with France and the UK. It also has the world's eighth largest GDP. Its death rates are higher than China because China mobilized unprecedented resources to construct a dozen pop-up hospitals, whereas Italy quickly ran out of ICU beds. Yet Italy has more ICU beds per capita than the United States does. American doctors practicing in Italy report that this is not a matter of Italy being some backwater without proper medical resources. Rather, the resources have been overwhelmed by the power of exponential growth.

Edited by RBerman
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1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

At least twice in the past day I've seen people consciously divert and decide to take the stairs instead of sharing an elevator with me. 

Are you sure this behavior only started recently? :baiting:

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1 hour ago, delekkerste said:
2 hours ago, tth2 said:

So in summary, you can't actually list any material pieces of comic OA sold during this period where the seller was gushing blood.

Sure I can.  PM sent. 

Holy cow, I can't believe the cover of Hulk 181 sold for only $100!    

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