Thoughts on Stocks and Coronavirus and Comics 4 4

[sfcityduck]

Whenever there is a stock market downturn, I always see posts asking how this will impact comics.  And invariably there are posts suggesting that stock investors will put their money into comics as a "safe haven."  

And I just got to shake my head.

There are no "comic book" hedge funds for a reason:  There simply is not enough value and volume in the comic book market to make it a viable option for serious stock investors. In fact, the comic market is so thin that the entry or exit of even one big buyer can significantly inflate or deflate prices.  Which is the exact opposite of what a stock investor seeking a safe haven would want.  

The folks buying comics are predominantly comic collectors or low level investors.  And while some of them may decide to take some money out of stocks and put into comics, they aren't likely to loose their heads and start overpaying for comics in the hopes there will be a buyer when they want to sell.  This is especially true for older buyers and, let's face it, the age buyers has been going up.

So ... this is a long winded way of saying that I don't think the fortunes of the stock market are going to lead to a significant uptick in the comic market.  Some might have pulled money and have cash on hand, others might have taken a hit in their retirement and feel its time to sell comics.  There's probably no broad pattern.

BUT, I THINK THE CORONAVIRUS COULD MAYBE HAVE AN IMPACT THE COMIC MARKET!  Why?  It could easily have an adverse impact on convention attendance and dealers.  The focus should probably be on the cause of the stock market uncertainty, not on the market itself.

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

[ADAMANTIUM]

 

[newshane]

I am in the stock market for the next 20 years. It is time to BUY BUY BUY.

Taking your money out right now Is a rookie mistake, unless you plan to retire in the next 4 years. 

I’ve never treated comics like an investment vehicle, so I have no comment there.

[revat]

I would say that if you're bold enough to go to cons in this environment, and lucky enough to see vendors there with stuff you like, then NOW is the time to LOWBALL THEM (assuming you don't need the cash for other stuff) for stuff you want.

As for investments in stocks, assuming you don't believe our country or our world will be irrevocably changed, you should try to identify some industries or some companies whose stocks have dropped precipitously that will probably at some point go back up (of course you should factor in more dropping first maybe).  This assumes you can invest for the semi-long to long term.

[DavidTheDavid]

3 hours ago, newshane said:

I am in the stock market for the next 20 years. It is time to BUY BUY BUY.

Taking your money out right now Is a rookie mistake, unless you plan to retire in the next 4 years. 

I’ve never treated comics like an investment vehicle, so I have no comment there.

I sent double my usual monthly contributions this month, even shorting my estimated tax payment in order to do so.

[NoMan]

Don't know how this will effect (affect?) the Chinese saving (and/or pushing prices even higher on key books) in the comic collecting market as has been discussed in the AF15 threads a number of years ago. I miss you Subby1932. Please come back. 

Edited March 2, 2020 by NoMan

[James J Johnson]

4 hours ago, newshane said:

I am in the stock market for the next 20 years. It is time to BUY BUY BUY.

+1 The dip was the needed impetus, the elastic rebound, for the market to do what it had been hinting at doing and flirting with for the past year. Breaking through the 30,000 barrier on the way to what seems to be the unattainable 40,000 barrier, which it could do by the end of 2020, if factors conducive towards it doing so continue throughout the year, including this cold/panic epidemic subsiding, which IMO is a distraction and only so much white noise. From what I can see, the future looks hunky-dory. Of the comic hobby and the stock market. Don't be hoodwinked by the incessant saturation of fear that bombards us all daily, coming at us from every direction. Learn to see through it. Use the force.

[sfcityduck]

2 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

 including this cold/panic epidemic subsiding, which IMO is a distraction and only so much white noise. 

You may be changing your tune as this thing spreads.  It's already having many real world impacts on the world economy.  Hard to call it white noise when you can no longer catch a flight on a U.S. airline to China, and the entire West Coast has cases on the rise.  Colleges are cancelling their study abroad programs in Italy (my niece just got aced out of a term in Sienna).  For most, it will be "just a cold," but for a not insignificant amount - especially amongst the older set - it will take its toll.  And that will cause a change in customer behaviour.  Businesses which are amongst the most likely to feel the impact include the film companies (sorry Disney/Marvel/Warner comic book movies), the NBA, and other businesses that brings large groups of people together in doors (such as comic conventions).  Good stock to buy now?  How about Netflix, which brings entertainment into your home with no need to venture into a crowded theatre.  

[revat]

3 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

17 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

 including this cold/panic epidemic subsiding, which IMO is a distraction and only so much white noise. 

You may be changing your tune as this thing spreads.  It's already having many real world impacts on the world economy.  Hard to call it white noise when you can no longer catch a flight on a U.S. airline to China, and the entire West Coast has cases on the rise.  Colleges are cancelling their study abroad programs in Italy (my niece just got aced out of a term in Sienna).  For most, it will be "just a cold," but for a not insignificant amount - especially amongst the older set - it will take its toll.  And that will cause a change in customer behaviour.  Businesses which are amongst the most likely to feel the impact include the film companies (sorry Disney/Marvel/Warner comic book movies), the NBA, and other businesses that brings large groups of people together in doors (such as comic conventions).  Good stock to buy now?  How about Netflix, which brings entertainment into your home with no need to venture into a crowded theatre.  

I'd wait for airlines to drop a bit more then purchase, knowing they'll eventually come back and/or be bailed out.

[thunsicker]

7 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

Colleges are cancelling their study abroad programs in Italy (my niece just got aced out of a term in Sienna). 

My daughter is worried about them cancelling her fall term in Madrid.  

[sfcityduck]

1 minute ago, thunsicker said:

My daughter is worried about them cancelling her fall term in Madrid.  

Some colleges (NYU, Syracuse, etc.) cancelled their Italy programs at World Health Organisation threat rating of 2 (alert level) others, including Oregon where my niece is, waited until the WHO upped the threat level in Italy to 3 (warning level) which it did on Friday.  

Spain is a level 1 (watch level) right now, just like the U.S.

[mattn792]

For what it’s worth, I came down with the flu after C2E2.  At least it waited till today to hit though. 

[Bird]

6 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

My daughter is worried about them cancelling her fall term in Madrid.  

my daughter has friends she knows being sent back from Italy mid semester, probably s.o.l. for everything. She wonders if they will be quarantined when they get back

 

[paperheart]

paging Gene, clean up needed on aisle 3

Edited March 3, 2020 by paperheart

[Jaylam]

The market was looking for an excuse to have a correction.

[lou_fine]

18 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

31 minutes ago, James J Johnson said:

 including this cold/panic epidemic subsiding, which IMO is a distraction and only so much white noise. 

You may be changing your tune as this thing spreads.  It's already having many real world impacts on the world economy.  Hard to call it white noise when you can no longer catch a flight on a U.S. airline to China, and the entire West Coast has cases on the rise.  Colleges are cancelling their study abroad programs in Italy (my niece just got aced out of a term in Sienna).  For most, it will be "just a cold," but for a not insignificant amount - especially amongst the older set - it will take its toll.  And that will cause a change in customer behaviour.  Businesses which are amongst the most likely to feel the impact include the film companies (sorry Disney/Marvel/Warner comic book movies), the NBA, and other businesses that brings large groups of people together in doors (such as comic conventions).  Good stock to buy now?  How about Netflix, which brings entertainment into your home with no need to venture into a crowded theatre.  

From a relative comparison point of view though, does it make rational sense for the general public, business corportions, and government officials to act in such fear and panic to this new and new unknown strain of the virus beacause they don't understand it yet.  Personally, I believe the almost hourly body count in terms of number of new cases and deaths at the top of the news and social media platforms is what is fuelling this fear to unwarranted hysterical levels.  

Can you just imagine the fear and panic from the general public, corporations, and governments if they started to do daily body counts on the 45 million seasonal flu cases and 61,000 associated deaths that took place last year just in the United States alone?  Especially when we see how everybody reacts in absolute panic and fear to a virus with just 99 cases so far and ony a handful of deaths to date.  

From the way the global economies are seemingly falling apart across the world, it makes me wonder if the prevention is actually worst than the cure in this particular case.  

[ADAMANTIUM]

24 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

For what it’s worth, I came down with the flu after C2E2.  At least it waited till today to hit though. 

Man I dont know whether to like your post or sad face, hope you feel better! I got over the crud, but still cough up once in while. I dont know the symptoms of this new whatchamacallit, but I had it well before the news. Con in 4 weeks 

Glad you had fun 

[James J Johnson]

50 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

especially amongst the older set - it will take its toll. 

This right here is the crux of the matter. People of a certain age and physical condition have the potential to be fatally harmed by something that people not of that certain age and not with that same physical condition will even be phased by.   A cold can kill some that are already in a weakened or compromised state. For those unfortunate ones, It's a deadly corona virus.

[thunsicker]

46 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

50 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

My daughter is worried about them cancelling her fall term in Madrid.  

Some colleges (NYU, Syracuse, etc.) cancelled their Italy programs at World Health Organisation threat rating of 2 (alert level) others, including Oregon where my niece is, waited until the WHO upped the threat level in Italy to 3 (warning level) which it did on Friday.  

Spain is a level 1 (watch level) right now, just like the U.S.

Yeah, at this point they just said to watch in case they cancel it.  And they were pretty cool about it, saying they will refund all money and even cover some costs associated with it if they do cancel it.