Has the Corona virus affected any cons yet? 7 7

[gcstomp]

I think the confusion on death rate is if you look at U.S. infected, and compare to death, that would yield 1, incorrect number.  You would look at U.S. closed cases, that make up 1 of 2 outcomes, recovered, or death. 

This is the very start of a pandemic that just entered the U.S. and it takes 3 weeks for someone to go from infected to critically ill, or dead. Current https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ which will be vastly outdated by morning, recall just 3 short weeks ago when president said we had 15 cases, that would soon be zero, and this would just go away like magic with the warm weather.  11,354 U.S. cases but by morning that will not even be remotely similar to tomorrows number.

[JJ-4]

7 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

There must have been 2400 deaths since you last checked 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

10% mortality globally, 61% within the US

You are way off.  Stats from WHO (as of 3/18/2020) 7,807 deaths of 191,187, so still 4.1%. 

 

In the US 58 deaths of 3,536 so only 1.6% morality here so far and we have an acute shortage of tests.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports  

[wilbil]

12 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

61% within the US

?????

[gcstomp]

JJ, you are comparing confirmed cases to deaths. Try comparing recovered and discharged cases from death. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

U.S. has 11, 354 cases (this will be wildly inaccurate in a few hours, but hit link for updated numbers). Of this, 171 U.S. deaths, with 108 recovered.  Why so few recovered?  Because we are just in the very start of this in this country, where 3 weeks ago we had 15 cases. And 3 weeks is roughly how long it takes to get critically ill, or die.

Edited March 19, 2020 by gcstomp

[JJ-4]

22 minutes ago, pemart1966 said:

If you have any symptoms you shouldn't be "social distancing" you should be in "self isolation".

Social distancing and self isolation are things that should be done even if you don't have any symptoms...

Yes, you should self isolation if you have symptoms, or if you are part of a high risk group.  It's not practical for everyone (those that have no symptoms) to self isolation.  Thus social distancing is appropriate since COVID is spread by bodily fluids, coughing, spit when you talk, touching things and then transferring to your eyes or mouth after an infected person has touched them.  The appropriate response is social distancing, so people can do some of the required day to day activities, we can't all stay under the covers forever.  We can get thru this without everyone freaking out.

 

Stay calms and wash your hands.

[Mr. Zipper]

21 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

There must have been 2400 deaths since you last checked 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/cor

22 minutes ago, dupont2005 said:

There must have been 2400 deaths since you last checked 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

10% mortality globally, 61% within the US

onavirus/

 

10% mortality globally, 61% within the US

There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Using the site you referenced, there are 133,239 open cases, which are considered "mild." When you factor those in, the mortality rate is 4.5%. It's even lower if any of the people in the "serious or critical" category survive. 

Posting a "61% mortality rate" in the US is absurd and adds nothing to the discussion.

I cannot understand why you persist in posting distorted information.

[JJ-4]

Here are some additional facts about COVID-19.  Exposure (infection) for the average population will have the following results.

80% of people will have very mild to no symptoms

15% of people will have symptoms serious enough to feel ill, will likely have to practice self-care (Advil, liquids, rest) as they will not be sick enough to require hospitalization & doctor’s offices will not want them to come in and potentially spread the illness to staff and other patients

5% of people will have symptoms acute enough to have respiratory distress and will need medical care intervention (isolated in a sick ward).

 

If 5% of the US population (16 Million people) all showed up at a hospital tomorrow the system would be completely overloaded.  Thus, to lower the impact to all we need to practice social distancing. This will help keep the frail, elderly, and compromised individuals safe.  Stay 5 feet away from others, wash your hands, stay out of any crowded areas, don’t go out at all if you don’t have to, spend time with your family, and read some funny books.  That will dramatically reduce the spread of the virus and allow us to flatten the curve.

 

Thanks.

[wilbil]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Zipper said:

There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Using the site you referenced, there are 133,239 open cases, which are considered "mild." When you factor those in, the mortality rate is 4.5%. It's even lower if any of the people in the "serious or critical" category survive. 

Posting a "61% mortality rate" in the US is absurd and adds nothing to the discussion.

I cannot understand why you persist in posting distorted information.

i think that was just a typing error. as to the rest of the numbers being discussed, there is some value, but in reality, until we have random representative samples from a much larger population, we don't know. there are most likely significant percentage of the population that has been infected, and has not experienced any symptoms, or have not experienced symptoms yet, or has already had the virus and there were no effects greater than the common cold of flu. it is still flu season, and it is also allergy season.

[wilbil]

1 minute ago, JJ-4 said:

Here are some additional facts about COVID-19.  Exposure (infection) for the average population will have the following results.

80% of people will have very mild to no symptoms

15% of people will have symptoms serious enough to feel ill, will likely have to practice self-care (Advil, liquids, rest) as they will not be sick enough to require hospitalization & doctor’s offices will not want them to come in and potentially spread the illness to staff and other patients

5% of people will have symptoms acute enough to have respiratory distress and will need medical care intervention (isolated in a sick ward).

 

If 5% of the US population (16 Million people) all showed up at a hospital tomorrow the system would be completely overloaded.  Thus, to lower the impact to all we need to practice social distancing. This will help keep the frail, elderly, and compromised individuals safe.  Stay 5 feet away from others, wash your hands, stay out of any crowded areas, don’t go out at all if you don’t have to, spend time with your family, and read some funny books.  That will dramatically reduce the spread of the virus and allow us to flatten the curve.

 

Thanks.

the cases so far are just not significant enough to describe percentages as "average population". it isn't. 

[gcstomp]

mr zipper, curious, you can see this link, right? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ it updates as new cases hit worldwide. 

You can drop down from that link to go from world wide cases, to U.S. cases per this https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Now, you see numbers for U.S. and you can read how many are active, as in maybe they tested positive this morning. this doesnt have anything to do with death rate, as I would think you would want to compare how many people recovered, vs how many died? In any case, the U.S. numbers are not representative of anything other than very late to the event testing, so I would not draw conclusions on death rate from the U.S. tiny sample, other than testing has just started, and numbers are going to go up.

[joeypost]

20 hours ago, Foolkiller said:

Yes, I do -- including one death.

Same here. A 78 year old family member with a history of lung issues. 

[pastandpresentcomics]

Does anyone really think the death rate percentage matters to those people who have died from the virus?

[JJ-4]

4 minutes ago, pastandpresentcomics said:

Does anyone really think the death rate percentage matters to those people who have died from the virus?

You are correct it does not.  But it is important to know if this thing is going to impact us like a seasonal influenza or a 90% deadly ebola outbreak don't you think?

 

Would you behavior be different if you thought you had a normal level of risk when you took a drive in your car or if it was going to be 100% fatal today?

[Randall Dowling]

4 hours ago, joeypost said:

Same here. A 78 year old family member with a history of lung issues. 

Sorry for your loss, Joey. 

[dupont2005]

5 hours ago, Mr. Zipper said:

There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Using the site you referenced, there are 133,239 open cases, which are considered "mild." When you factor those in, the mortality rate is 4.5%. It's even lower if any of the people in the "serious or critical" category survive. 

Posting a "61% mortality rate" in the US is absurd and adds nothing to the discussion.

I cannot understand why you persist in posting distorted information.

Yeah, any of those mild cases can turn not mild for any number of reasons, as they have been doing in order to bring the mortality rate up to what it is. Another statistic is people recovered from covid-19, which is a far lower number than those who have died from it. Worrying 

 

and even if it were “only” 4.5%, that’s 45 times the mortality rate of the flu. 

[dupont2005]

Yeah but how many people DIDN’T die from the Black Plague?

[lizards2]

8 hours ago, Black_Adam said:

9 hours ago, theCapraAegagrus said:

Plenty of places, but they need to be shipped to an FFL, where you'll have to pass a background check, and receive required registration papers, etc etc etc...

People, seemingly all of a sudden, are confused by the fact that they can't have guns shipped to their front door.

I forgot to add that I am in Canada...

I'm sorry for your upcoming loss....,  

[lizards2]

2 hours ago, dupont2005 said:

Yeah but how many people DIDN’T die from the Black Plague?

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

17 hours ago, Krismusic said:

I thought they were lining up to sell their guns... as in that they needed to sell them to get toilet paper..

[theCapraAegagrus]

17 hours ago, Black_Adam said:

I forgot to add that I am in Canada...