Coronavirus's impact on the worldwide box office 3 3

[Bosco685]

24 minutes ago, PunisherPunisherPunisher said:

Movies can wait, health and safety comes first, all I know is when everything settles  and life gets back to normal, I will be watching movies non stop

Hear, hear!

Even with the free Wonder Woman 1984 ticket I received from Fritos, heck if I can find it in me to head out to a movie when theaters do open back up.

[media_junkie]

Ok, so does it get so bad for the studios that at a certain point they say "Screw it" and start releasing things to VOD just so they can get some income coming in?

[Bosco685]

20 minutes ago, media_junkie said:

Ok, so does it get so bad for the studios that at a certain point they say "Screw it" and start releasing things to VOD just so they can get some income coming in?

I think it's a fair point and the reality of the situation.  And we may see more of these 'VOD $19.99 rental' situations more frequently for now.

[Bosco685]

Quote

Tenet , the movie expected to kick off Hollywood’s long-deferred summer, has a “low likelihood” of being released in August, according to a veteran exhibition analyst.

 

Additional delays of the movie re-start will put further strain on theater circuits’ balance sheets and put 2020 box office on a path toward 70% decline from 2019 levels, Eric Handler of MKM Partners predicts.

 

Handler lowered his outlook on several exhibition stocks in a note to clients Monday, trimming his 12-month price targets for the stocks of AMC, Cinemark, Imax Corp. and National CineMedia. He maintained a “buy” rating on Cinemark and Imax, with the others “neutral.”

 

Major exhibitors have been battling through a historic months-long shutdown of theaters due to COVID-19. While many states attempted to reopen their economies in May and June, health data now indicate that was too soon. Florida set a single-day record for new infections over the weekend and rates have been surging across much of the U.S. Texas and California are other populous states experiencing major problems.

 

Tenet, a much-anticipated Warner Bros release directed by Christopher Nolan, along with Disney’s Mulan and other Hollywood tentpoles, have implemented multiple delays as they ride out the storm. In the case of Tenet, pricey TV ads have been touting the August 12 release as the studio tries to keep it top of mind for would-be ticket buyers. Studios and theaters are caught in a paradox, with no theaters able to fully operate without new product, but no studios willing to be guinea pigs as conditions deteriorate. It is also increasingly clear that indoor spaces are among the most likely places for disease to spread, though theater chains say mask policies, intense cleaning procedures and limited density counters the risk.

 

“The near-term outlook for exhibition related stocks remains extremely clouded,” Handler wrote. “It would be surprising to see theaters able to re-open nationwide before September, at the earliest.”

 

Handler now expects box office in 2020 to decline by nearly 70% from the $11.4 billion taken in during 2019, which was the second-highest tally in history. That would be worse than the 55% to 60% plunge he had previously forecast. There will also be a knock-on effect for Europe and other global territories where Hollywood titles play, even though theaters in many international pockets have successfully reopened in recent weeks.

 

[valiantman]

I predict some studio will attempt a $99.99 rental/own model where they claim it's "VIP streaming" for bragging rights.  The price will drop down to $19.99, instead of starting there.

[paperheart]

Analyst Cuts 2020 Box Office Estimate, Says Cinemas Will Reopen in September "at the Earliest"

Handler reduced his 2020 box office forecast to a "near-70 percent decline compared to our prior view for a 55 percent-60 percent decrease," saying: "For the back half of the year we project third-quarter and fourth-quarter box office revenue could fall 90 percent and 50 percent, respectively, down from our previous forecast calling for a decline of 65 percent and 29 percent."

that would bring this year in at around $3.5BB

[media_junkie]

52 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I predict some studio will attempt a $99.99 rental/own model where they claim it's "VIP streaming" for bragging rights.  The price will drop down to $19.99, instead of starting there.

i cannot fathom a $100 to stream/own a digital copy of a new movie.

Not saying a studio wouldn't try it, but I don't think there is going to be many people that will jump at that.

[valiantman]

4 minutes ago, media_junkie said:

58 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I predict some studio will attempt a $99.99 rental/own model where they claim it's "VIP streaming" for bragging rights.  The price will drop down to $19.99, instead of starting there.

i cannot fathom a $100 to stream/own a digital copy of a new movie.

Not saying a studio wouldn't try it, but I don't think there is going to be many people that will jump at that.

I never thought $100 pay-per-view boxing matches that last two minutes would work, but Floyd Mayweather has unlimited money for life and I have that specific example of where I was wrong. 

[media_junkie]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I never thought $100 pay-per-view boxing matches that last two minutes would work, but Floyd Mayweather has unlimited money for life and I have that specific example of where I was wrong. 

And there is that.  LOL

[paperheart]

Hong Kong Disneyland, Movie Theaters Closing Again Due To COVID-19 Surge

[D84]

At this point I'll be surprised if any new movies are released in theaters by Christmas. 

[Bosco685]

Quote

A federal judge has ruled that the state of New Jersey can keep movie theaters closed at the same time religious services or other indoor gatherings are allowed to proceed.

 

The closely watched case offered a close-up look at one effort by beleaguered theaters to open their doors again after months of shutdowns due to COVID-19.

 

U.S. District Court Judge Brian R. Martinotti on Tuesday denied a temporary restraining order sought by the National Association of Theatre Owners (and its New Jersey chapter) as well as AMC, Cinemark, Regal and other exhibitors. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Judith Persichilli, the state’s acting health commissioner, are listed as defendants in the case, which centered on the question of whether the temples of cinema should be considered any different from actual temples.

 

Martinotti set a schedule for a procedure involving a preliminary injunction that would take place by early August, with other deadlines for paperwork in the latter half of July. The plaintiffs had hoped for much quicker action given the dire current state of their business.

Exhibitors filed suit on July 7, claiming that the continued closure of theaters was “unconstitutional.”

 

The plaintiffs “have not satisfied the stringent standard for granting this extraordinary relief,” the judge wrote in his ruling. “They had ample opportunities to file a request for a temporary restraining order after the governor’s initial executive order, subsequent modifications thereto, and the filing of this complaint. It is noteworthy that, as plaintiffs file this application, states that initially ordered the re-opening of indoor movie theaters have once again ordered their closure in response to rising COVID-19 infection numbers.”

 

[paperheart]

Barcelona Movie Theaters Closed Again Amid COVID-19 Spike

mind boggling that WB hasn't pulled the plug on Tenet's WW release

[media_junkie]

1 hour ago, paperheart said:

Barcelona Movie Theaters Closed Again Amid COVID-19 Spike

mind boggling that WB hasn't pulled the plug on Tenet's WW release

I dont think we will see any major new releases in theaters in 2020.  Flip a coin for the Q1 and Q2 of 2021.

[Bosco685]

43 minutes ago, media_junkie said:

I dont think we will see any major new releases in theaters in 2020.  Flip a coin for the Q1 and Q2 of 2021.

The further along we go, the more this becomes our reality. 

[Bosco685]

Quote

Just because Warner Bros. took Christopher Nolan’s Tenet temporarily off the release schedule doesn’t mean that the No. 1 theater chain isn’t going to reopen. AMC announced this morning that they’re planning to reopen their multiplexes beginning mid-to-late August instead of the previously announced date of July 30.

 

The chain didn’t go into details in their announcement this morning about which 450 U.S. theaters would be reopening and where. The chain was originally planning a phased weekend-by-weekend reopening approach. Their release specified that a third of all AMC cinemas in Europe and the Middle East are already open and operating normally.

Warner Bros. announced on Monday that they won’t be rolling Tenet out in a typical everywhere global day-and-date fashion. The Nolan thriller will likely go first overseas in such markets as Asia and certain European markets where COVID-19 has quelled, and be released stateside in those states where it’s safe to reopen movie theaters (New York, New Jersey, Maryland, North Carolina and South Carolina are among those states that have not been given the proper approval to reopen).

 

[Bosco685]

AT&T Chief Sees More Warner Bros. Movies Heading to Streaming Amid Pandemic Shutdown

Quote

Warner Bros. is adjusting its movie production and distribution plans in light of the prolonged shutdown of theaters driven by the coronavirus pandemic, AT&T CEO John Stankey told investors Thursday.

 

Stankey emphasized that the studio still “believes in the theatrical experience” but said it is inevitable that some titles planned for a traditional theatrical will have to shift to streaming platforms including WarnerMedia’s newly launched HBO Max.

 

“There’s no question the longer this goes on there’s going to be some content on the margin that we look at and say that it may be better served to be distributed in a different construct,” Stankey said, speaking on AT&T’s second quarter earnings call. He was quick to add that big-budget event movies like Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” and the upcoming “Wonder Woman” sequel “Wonder Woman 1984” would still be destined for the big screen.

 

On Monday, Warner Bros. delayed the release of “Tenet” for the third time, moving it indefinitely from its Aug. 12 target date.

 

“Some content is going to be more enjoyable and better to see in theaters than in the living room,” Stankey said. “We want to work with our theatrical partners and exhibitors and try to get through this very difficult period.”

 

Warner Bros. has also moved some of its future production slate around and “retooled” some properties to make them more suited to an SVOD release.

 

“There are going to be some shifts as we move forward here,” Stankey said. In some cases the studio is “choosing to executive the movie as a direct-to-streaming construct.”

 

Stankey also emphasized that with the HBO Max platform, WarnerMedia and its parent company now have much more flexibility to find homes for its content. “I love that we have that option now,” he said of HBO Max.

 

[Bosco685]

 

[D84]

As long as they don't move Dune. 🤞

[Bosco685]

8 minutes ago, D84 said:

As long as they don't move Dune. 🤞