GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Joshua33]

5 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

I dont think its Captain Trips but I do think its the trigger for Deglobalisation and huge market crashs with no alamo line anymore for the FED and ECB. What has the potential to kill more people: The virus itself or the full stop of the global economy because of the panic? War can be the result, see the 1930s. I think the virus is the game changer. It will create a new world. Its the big one. I know they cried wolf over and over, especially in Germany (German angst). And as a colleteral the "bubble of everything" will deflate.

Oh man!!! Are you sure? That's it!!! I'm going to sell off all of my collection right now and go buy more ammo, bullet proof vests, dehydrated food pallets and Bic lighters with the proceeds. 

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

1-GA/SA collecto/investor who is in for the long run-the only thing that counts is the day you bought it and the day you sell it. Long run I feel good about top quality GA/SA and if you can afford to hold it that might be the best way to go here..any opinions?

2-GA/SA collector who needs to sell part of his collection to pay bills or support family. 

3-GA/SA needs to sell entire collection.....any ideas?

Well, if you are a GA/SA collector, I believe most of them would be in there for the long haul and Scenarios 2 & 3 would not apply to them.  

As for Scenario 2, it looks like you are referring more to a quasi collector/dealer situation to me whereby he needs to sell in order to feed the family. 

Scenario 3 would only apply in the situation where somebody threw all of their money into GA/SA comics, even before they took the bare essentials of life into consideration.  

Edited March 15, 2020 by lou_fine

[Mmehdy]

41 minutes ago, Joshua33 said:

Again, you are stating so many opinions and predictions as fact. If you notice, all of my opinions use the word IF, because I don't know, or pretend to know the outcome. 

You are saying we are in a massive panic with no end in sight. That's simply not true. YOU are panicking, others are panicking, I'm not and neither are many others. I know multiple doctors who are in giggle mode over how panicky people are. They could be wrong too, but let's not watch Outbreak too many times, shall we?

Your hedge fund friend's prediction of market bottom is still his opinion. He is a professional that works in an industry and has his finger on the pulse, I get it. But, the majority of hedge fund guys get it wrong, too. It's just the nature of that business, or every one of them would be billionaires. He could be right, he might not.

All I'm saying is, unless somebody is paying you to give them financial advice, I wouldn't be putting myself out there, telling them how to spend their money. Especially on something as trivial as comic books. As a matter of fact, I'm more comfortable with my tangible assets than stocks right now by a country mile. 

The vaccine thing is a concern for sure. They need to locate patient zero. They could find it tomorrow, they could find it months from now, we don't know. If you cross reference this bug with H1N1, thus far it hasn't been as infectious. We are additionally taking far more precaution this time around.

To me, the height of the panic for this thing is RIGHT NOW, and I still see 10s of Thousands of dollars being spent in threads every day. I hope I'm not coming off as combative, I enjoy the healthy banter. You are more than welcome to sell me your GA books at a steep discount any time 

You are not combative in any way and I appreciate your opinion, thank you for commenting here. Let me comment on reply post

1-Just because tens of thousands of dollars are being spent on comic book every day does not mean that a significant price decline in GA/SA will not occur during this unknown period of time fighting this virus. I believe this will be temporary and hopefully recover in the next 12 months.

2-I am following my own advice and holding.

3- I am not telling anybody to go out and spend any money on GA/SA unless there is a significant safety built in factor accounting for this pandemic. My advice on the sell side is do not panic...act responsibly consider all factors including you family obligations. On the buy side...there is a risk buying any GA/SA comic book no matter what the business conditions are...good or bad. Today, however it is much more risky and therefor prices  paid should take that into account.

4-Hedge fund guy has been more right and wrong...FYI but nobody is 100%

5-I am sticking to facts...yes the stupid media shows at costco lines, but if you have been out there...people are scared..real or unreal.I should however rephrase the "no end in sight comment" to this. Either we learn to live with this virus...or we come up with a vaccine which will stop it. The date is unknown when we will come up with that vaccine. Otherwise we learn to live with it....and that is going to change the way we do business, especially if you can reacquire the virus after you beat it.

6- I admit I have the seen the movie "outbreak" at the theater and on cable many times and it was a good movie.....LOL

Edited March 15, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Mmehdy]

1 minute ago, lou_fine said:

Well, if you are a GA/SA collector, I believe most of them would be in there for the long haul and Scenarios 2 & 3 would not apply to them.  

As for Scenario 2, it looks like you are referring more to a quasi collector/dealer situation to me whereby he needs to sell in order to feed the family. 

Scenario 3 would only apply in the situation where somebody threw all of their money into GA/SA comics, even before they took the essentials of life into consideration. 

Got it.....seems right on, however what would you do......go Ha, CL, facebook?

[lou_fine]

10 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Got it.....seems right on, however what would you do......go Ha, CL, facebook?

Are you referring to where a collector should go to in order to sell off their collection?

If so, as per my post from another thread on the GA boards here, it would be selectively choosing between HA, CC, or CL depending upon the particular item you are selling from your collection, as I feel that each one of these 3 major comic book auction houses have their own particular niche:  

37 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

I would tend to agree with you here if you also include CC since they are definitely the market maker when it comes to certain GA books, and definitely much more so than CL which definitely also has their own niche.     

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 3/14/2020 at 6:41 AM, LDarkseid1 said:

I'm looking to sell all my high grade golden age Supes for pennies on the dollar if anyone is interested? 

Well, from the rather insane crowds you see at the supermarkets on the hourly news, you'll probably be trading in your Edgar Church books for rolls of toilet paper pretty soon.  

[GermanFan]

Joshua. I would recommend the opposite. Waiting for the good deals to come. Not only in comics. But first wait until the dust has settled. Its just the beginning. I dont think the USA or German states will collapse in their structure, shaken yes. EU will slowly disintegrate to a core, it has already begun. The Euro will stay but in name only. I dont think people will starve in the west. The USA will stay the Gorilla in the field for a long time to come. The western countries will look for US leadership as they are too weak to stand alone. I think China and Germany will be hit hardest with Germany recovering fast IF the right action is taken. 500 years of western rule cant be dismantled in a couple of decades.

[LonelyPost]

It is early days. Just wait out. No reason to hurry.

My thoughts: What is frightening about this, is the speed of how this spread and the mortality rate. It must be pretty bad if China needed to shut down a major province on the eve of Chinese New Year - they should have done it earlier, nevertheless it helped to stem (or delay) the tide. If you look at Taiwan, despite their proximity to China, Korea and Japan, the number of cases there is extremely low - I suspect the years of drilling and getting ready for war with China had imbued the population with discipline. COVID 19 at this juncture, based on the number of global cases and deaths reported, the mortality rate is around 3%. Assuming long term mortality rate is 1%, the numbers would be devastating. Comparing this to the last pandemic, H1N1 in 2019 (from April 2009 to Aug 2010), H1N1 was estimated to impact 24% of global population, with US reporting around 61 million cases - death toll was around 280k and US was 12.5k - the mortality rate was around 0.2. This was also helped by the discovery of a vaccine in Dec 2009. So if you extrapolate from that pandemic to this, which WHO recently declared to be a pandemic and no vaccine, and based on its trajectory from Dec 2019 when it was first reported - it is still early days but the trajectory looks worrying hence, why governments are worried. I have seen a couple of flu epidemics such as SARS, H1N1 that went thru Asia, but I have never seen one which has such a big impact to economic activities.... as well as curricular activities.  This one, could be far worse than the recessions that world went thru over the last 30 years or so. It is also interesting to see how China copes with this given that they had yet to experience a recession since Deng Xiopeng reformed China's economy in 1978.

[Joshua33]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

You are not combative in any way and I appreciate your opinion, thank you for commenting here. Let me comment on reply post

1-Just because tens of thousands of dollars are being spent on comic book every day does not mean that a significant price decline in GA/SA will not occur during this unknown period of time fighting this virus. I believe this will be temporary and hopefully recover in the next 12 months.

2-I am following my own advice and holding.

3- I am not telling anybody to go out and spend any money on GA/SA unless there is a significant safety built in factor accounting for this pandemic. My advice on the sell side is do not panic...act responsibly consider all factors including you family obligations. On the buy side...there is a risk buying any GA/SA comic book no matter what the business conditions are...good or bad. Today, however it is much more risky and therefor prices  paid should take that into account.

4-Hedge fund guy has been more right and wrong...FYI but nobody is 100%

5-I am sticking to facts...yes the stupid media shows at costco lines, but if you have been out there...people are scared..real or unreal.I should however rephrase the "no end in sight comment" to this. Either we learn to live with this virus...or we come up with a vaccine which will stop it. The date is unknown when we will come up with that vaccine. Otherwise we learn to live with it....and that is going to change the way we do business, especially if you can reacquire the virus after you beat it.

6- I admit I have the seen the movie "outbreak" at the theater and on cable many times and it was a good movie.....LOL

Agreed. If you are familiar with Michael Olsterholm, he is talking H1N1 numbers, and says we are at the beginning of a 2 to 3 months long issue. This dude is literally THE authority on predicting virus behavior, it's all he does. 

H1n1 killed 500,000 plus people, which is a huge deal. Hes projecting similar numbers for this and does claim that it isn't your average influenza. 

My thing is this... God forbid we're right, but he also agrees that the timing is too coincidental. The country where the virus originated came after a failed coup on the office of U.S. president and after a forced trade deal that was very damaging to China's economic outlook. 

I believe the fact that the U.S. has been on a path that favors National over Globalization, will not only keep our markets incredibly strong, but even increase them as we will probably be looked to, again, for help when the dust settles. Will definitely be interesting to see what happens.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Joshua33
Spell

[Aman619]

Thta says it all..  “failed coup?  Buhbye.

[Joshua33]

8 minutes ago, Aman619 said:

Thta says it all..  “failed coup?  Buhbye.

Just an opinion, friend. We're all entitled to them.

[LonelyPost]

Failed coup - forced trade deal - face palm .... economies today are all interconnected - if europe and asia are badly affected, rest assured, US will also be similarly impacted. 

[Joshua33]

14 minutes ago, LonelyPost said:

Failed coup - forced trade deal - face palm .... economies today are all interconnected - if europe and asia are badly affected, rest assured, US will also be similarly impacted. 

Not saying that the U.S. will be unaffected. We already have been. Look at the decline in market numbers over the last week, specifically. What I'm saying is that in a globally connected market, there are winners and losers at the end of a crisis. The nation's that are better positioned to handle adversity, because of a strong foundation, usually are the financial beneficiaries after a crisis.

China has been on an absolute growth tear for decades because of their global approach to their economy, but the second the U.S. said "no longer at the cost of our own core strength" their economic forecast plummeted. Do you truly believe they want the U.S. to continue to nationalize our economy? Heck no!!! We're their biggest customer. Call me a looney, or conspiracy theorist. I'm ok with that. It's just an opinion, and I certainly enjoy others. Again, it just seems very coincidental, if you look at the timeline. I might be the only person that has this perspective, but I don't think that's accurate.

[GermanFan]

In a war you figure out your casualties and the casualties of your enemy. If you think the enemies losses are bigger and you end up in a better position you may start or engage in a war (like WW 2. It was a huge win for the USA with relatively small losses). Power trumps money/economy. That said I dont think the virus has been spread as a bio weapon. But its likely we will never find out what exactly happened. As I said I dont think the virus itself is the danger, but what it triggers (what would be happening sooner or later anyways).

[Joshua33]

8 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

In a war you figure out your casualties and the casualties of your enemy. If you think the enemies losses are bigger and you end up in a better position you may start or engage in a war (like WW 2. It was a huge win for the USA with relatively small losses). Power trumps money/economy. That said I dont think the virus has been spread as a bio weapon. But its likely we will never find out what exactly happened. As I said I dont think the virus itself is the danger, but what it triggers (what would be happening sooner or later anyways).

Wisdom 

[Cat-Man_America]

18 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

In a war you figure out your casualties and the casualties of your enemy. If you think the enemies losses are bigger and you end up in a better position you may start or engage in a war (like WW 2. It was a huge win for the USA with relatively small losses). Power trumps money/economy. That said I dont think the virus has been spread as a bio weapon. But its likely we will never find out what exactly happened. As I said I dont think the virus itself is the danger, but what it triggers (what would be happening sooner or later anyways).

This is what concerns me most.  

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, Joshua33 said:

Agreed. If you are familiar with Michael Olsterholm, he is talking H1N1 numbers, and says we are at the beginning of a 2 to 3 months long issue. This dude is literally THE authority on predicting virus behavior, it's all he does. 

H1n1 killed 500,000 plus people, which is a huge deal. Hes projecting similar numbers for this and does claim that it isn't your average influenza. 

My thing is this... God forbid we're right, but he also agrees that the timing is too coincidental. The country where the virus originated came after a failed coup on the office of U.S. president and after a forced trade deal that was very damaging to China's economic outlook. 

I believe the fact that the U.S. has been on a path that favors National over Globalization, will not only keep our markets incredibly strong, but even increase them as we will probably be looked to, again, for help when the dust settles. Will definitely be interesting to see what happens.

interesting comments...

1-Michael Olsterholm or Alfred E. Neman ...neither one know where this is going..for real...we need more time to figure this out...we are trying though.

2-500,000 deaths and I hope he is wrong...does not address the issue of insufficient or overwhelmed hospitals of the other 100 million people which are gonna resource out a all ready over leveraged US government.

3-and lastly I would agree with you about something not being proper  about this collapse. Interesting...when we first found out about the virus...the market went back ...UP...strange..Hedge fund guy says there was market manipulation to keep stable and those are the same forces who can bring Humpty Dumpty could toubing down. We just had that conversation yesterday. My HF guy says "follow the money"....who makes the most out this collapse on the down side  and who will make the most when it is resold the public on the up side and bingo you have market manipulators. They cannot create the virus..but they prey on things like this to control, panic and make profits. They are best at covering their tracks and all my HF guide can do is be the first to follow their moves. I would say it is not about some coup on the US President as I disagree with that theory. If any thing that would be small potatoes...if market manipulation is occurring-probably on a world wide level--they are seemed to go down the same amounts..it is for making $$$$.

Josha33 we will never know who these individuals are, they too well hidden....through shell corporations, and tax haven banks and nations. That is just something we cannot control of or get sufficient information to prevent similar  market manipulation in the future. Let us hope and pray, like I did today..that money, politics,and power do not play a role in hindering the discovery of the cure and implementation to eliminate this virus from destroying humanity. God Bless You

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Mmehdy

[pemart1966]

1 hour ago, GermanFan said:

In a war you figure out your casualties and the casualties of your enemy. If you think the enemies losses are bigger and you end up in a better position you may start or engage in a war (like WW 2. It was a huge win for the USA with relatively small losses). Power trumps money/economy. That said I dont think the virus has been spread as a bio weapon. But its likely we will never find out what exactly happened. As I said I dont think the virus itself is the danger, but what it triggers (what would be happening sooner or later anyways).

Yes we do know what happened and the guy that raised the red flag didn't die from the virus - he died - totalitarian regime style...

Edited March 15, 2020 by pemart1966

[lou_fine]

28 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

3-and lastly I would agree with you about something not being proper  about this collapse. Interesting...when we first found out about the virus...the market went back ...UP...strange..Hedge fund guy says there was market manipulation to keep stable and those are the same forces who can bring Humpty Dumpty could toubing down. We just had that conversation yesterday. My HF guy says "follow the money"....who makes the most out this collapse on the down side  and who will make the most when it is resold the public on the up side and bingo you have market manipulators. They cannot create the virus..but they prey on things like this to control, panic and make profits. They are best at covering their tracks and all my HF guide can do is be the first to follow their moves. I would say it is not about some coup on the US President as I disagree with that theory. If any thing that would be small potatoes...if market manipulation is occurring-probably on a world wide level--they are seemed to go down the same amounts..it is for making $$$$.

Yes indeed, how many times did the markets hit new all-time highs after the news of the Coronavirus first came out on January 20th or was it the 21st, before they finally came crashing down?  

[Joshua33]

4 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Yes indeed, how many times did the markets hit new all-time highs after the news of the Coronavirus first came out on January 20th or was it the 21st, before they finally came crashing down?  

Exactly right. You can always see right through a cash grab. It happened during 9/11 and during the "housing crisis" most recently. We as consumers will always prop up the powers that be, just out of pure populus buying power. When they've hyper inflated to the point where they realize they can't possibly sustain it, they activate their contingency plans, move their financials to the safest place possible, and manipulate currency. There is always a catalyst that draws attention from the underlying issue.