GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[jimbo_7071]

On 3/16/2020 at 2:04 AM, waaaghboss said:

Just me, but my collecting is starting to take a pause.  As much as I love picking up old funny books, at this point I finally feel the market is heading in a direction where buying stocks doesn't feel like im buying into an over-inflated bubble.  I find myself saving more recently, and tossing what I can into my equities account to start picking up more and more stocks of companies I feel will bounce back in a profitable way.  There are a number of books I'm looking for that I'll still probably splurge on if they ever come up for sale, but buying books every week now feels a bit irresponsible for me when I could be using my money in a way that will grant me greater financial returns over time.  Plus, I have to realize and remind myself that I have more comic books sitting in boxes in my basement unread than 99% of the population has ever seen and read.  Time to start making a dent in that project

My buying is paused for a different reason: I'm hoping against hope that one of my grails will show up at a discount, and I want to have the funds available to go after it. I do expect collectors' best stuff to be locked up tight for a few years, but there are always some guys who have to sell at a particular time (due to the disposition of assets during a divorce, etc.).

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

My buying is paused for a different reason: I'm hoping against hope that one of my grails will show up at a discount, and I want to have the funds available to go after it. I do expect collectors' best stuff to be locked up tight for a few years, but there are always some guys who have to sell at a particular time (due to the disposition of assets during a divorce, etc.).

That is a very good strategy to have. The best candidate for you would be a FLIPPER...and he might sell for two reasons. 1-we know he considers comic books widgets..he does not care and he is in for the "short run" and he might have to take a loss by being impatient. The Flipper might want to sell to buy into the "greatest stock buying opportunity of a lifetime". Everybody I know is waiting...and waiting to put money in and go up the ladder once we begin the climb back up. That flipper might come to the conclusion that holding the GA will not give him a greater return and thus dump the GA to go after the greater profit.

 The second is a bit of doom and gloom. The flipper realizes that there is not going to be a cure immediately for this virus.That would mean depression levels of limited economic activity for a sustained period of time. One thing will be king...cash and other assets which produce some from income such as real estate or predatory lending he would  get greater returns via cash flow and appreciation. He will then dump the GA/SA for any quick price to make more money elsewhere. As it stands now, there is no cure...so he would see this as a more efficient way to obtain a return.

What is scary is we just don't know how much speculation is built in yo the GA/SA market...what is real and what has been hyped up by these investor/flippers. I think we are about to find out and that could mean serious price hits on all "investment" type books..5K or greater. It just takes a couple of these guys  to panic...we react and bingo we have a serious decline of 30% just like the market has done or even greater. Remember, they  are just in it for the money...when they are gone they will never look back and we have to pick up the pieces one by one and build it all back. I want you to know that  I just like your will be there.

 So there is a real danger here, that is why we talk about and not keep it in. If you are waiting for you grail to show ( It should be Cap1, Sup1. A1, or Tech 27 etc) be very very careful that you build in the future uncertainly when you make the decision to buy and  only buy if you have the ability to keep the book for a sustained period of time while not affecting you security to protect you family and existing assets. We have not seen any panic yet...it take more time for GA/SA to react to reality than the minute by minute trading of the Dow...but there could be an opportunity of a lifetime just as in the stock market...if time is right for you...find the seller...and have the ability to hold.

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

One thing will be king...cash and other assets which produce some from income such as real estate or predatory lending he would  get greater returns via cash flow and appreciation.

Not sure if real estate would work in this situation here if you have revenue property and all of your tenants are out of work and unable to pay their rents to you.  

As the owner of a business (i.e. the landlord), you would probably be expected to provide free rent or to postpone rent payments owing in this very unique situation.  

[Mmehdy]

27 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Not sure if real estate would work in this situation here if you have revenue property and all of your tenants are out of work and unable to pay their rents to you.  

As the owner of a business (i.e. the landlord), you would probably be expected to provide free rent or to postpone rent payments owing in this very unique situation.  

It would have the greater potential to produce income rather than a comic book slab, but I agree that landlords need to be flexible during this crisis.But the same would be be on a lending basis..the payback is the concern. If I were a betting man I think we will be out of this sooner rather than later. But there is gonna need to be some recovery time also factored in. Too me it seems like-just shut the entire USA down for three weeks and be over it....I that sounds simple...but I wanna go back to the days and looking at GA and other items and bidding without this darn guilt trip about what is going to happen. For example, there is a "grail" that is coming up for auction that seems to have gotten lost or just not mentioned about next month. I have been fretting for days about how I am gonna approach this..should I bid normal, should I go for it, or limit my bidding to something reasonable...this is a one in a lifetime item...that is it...going going gone forever...and I do not know it even existed...I suspected but lo an behold...There has been some publicity related recently in that area  and I would of assumed a smart museum might be a competitor but who knows what is gonna happen. I wake up every day thinking about this..what to do. So, I am taking one day at a time..auction could be postponed or as I suspect the item will be known but just overlooked, especially at this time.

 I think this crisis has changed the game for everybody concerned if you are both a buyer and seller..any thoughts?

Edited March 17, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Robot Man]

At this point, I don’t think I really have any obtainable “grails” left. There are a few things I’d like to have that I’ve never owned but just don’t make logical sense to spend what it would take to own them. I am more about experiences, travel and helping out my kids and grandkids. MUCH more important tan “things”. 

The “thrill of the hunt” has always been way more rewarding than the object it’s self. Once you got it, you got it, then what? 

In the past few years, I have really cut down on the amount of money I spend on “stuff”. The virus has nothing to do with it. I still buy stuff here and there because it’s a huge part of who I am and what I enjoy. The days of big dollar collectible purchases are over.

You got a “once in a life time grail” opportunity? If it is that important to you, go for it. I suspect if you let it go or miss out, it won’t ruin your life. It’s just more stuff and you can’t take it with you. Me, all I got to do is just look around and appreciate what I already have. 

[Math Teacher]

6 hours ago, Sauce Dog said:

I only now finally took a look at my mutual funds....and the massive kick to the pants it took. 10k drop in a month, and all my brain could do was think of all the epic comics I could have bought with that.

I can top that. Since the end of 2019, my portfolio has dropped by $56,000. And if I took the time to determine the value of my portfolio in mid-February, I'm sure it would be even more.

I know this will never happen, but if we are all supposed to "hunker down" for a month, I don't see why the stock market couldn't be shut down for that duration. I believe that the stock market was shut down after 9/11, and, it's safe to say, there will be far more deaths from COVID-19 than the number of deaths on 9/11. I am, in no way, trying to trivialize the deaths on 9/11.

[Randall Dowling]

3 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

For example, there is a "grail" that is coming up for auction that seems to have gotten lost or just not mentioned about next month. I have been fretting for days about how I am gonna approach this..should I bid normal, should I go for it, or limit my bidding to something reasonable...this is a one in a lifetime item...that is it...going going gone forever...and I do not know it even existed...I suspected but lo an behold...There has been some publicity related recently in that area  and I would of assumed a smart museum might be a competitor but who knows what is gonna happen. I wake up every day thinking about this..what to do. So, I am taking one day at a time..auction could be postponed or as I suspect the item will be known but just overlooked, especially at this time.

 I think this crisis has changed the game for everybody concerned if you are both a buyer and seller..any thoughts?

Mitch, after reading your dilemma, I’m reminded of a time, years ago, when a great collector had advice for someone in this situation.  It was deceptively simple... you just have to MANNUP!!  

[Ryan.]

I've sold more in the last 24 hours, between here on the boards and on ebay, than I have in the past couple of months. I guess, for now, people are buying. 

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, Randall Dowling said:

Mitch, after reading your dilemma, I’m reminded of a time, years ago, when a great collector had advice for someone in this situation.  It was deceptively simple... you just have to MANNUP!!  

I get it...still what ROBO's point is ...at some point you just do not get turned on as much...not for me but I understand his point if you have a estimated life span or say 20 years as opposed to 30-40..you factor in the amount of time you can enjoy ownership. I think as you get older and deal with you mortality as it gets closer you begin to look at  the end game..does in my family..care or will it get dumped to Ha.com just like will be in the ground. Tough decision. To me the deciding factor is you only live once...and owning a piece of history...created at time without a thought of value for the future...kind of transports you back. I remember holding my first copy of Action #1...never before had I ever felt...transported back in time...amazing feeling..who bought this? what was it like going to newstand and seeing this...I have always tried to reclaim that feeling, it did not repapppear when I was holding the SF copy of Det 27 or the Bigman copy of Whiz 2., But Cap 1 for some reason was close Acton 1 in terms of awe.

 I just hate what is going on out there...I would pay a higher price ,then have society fall apart as it is. Still, I am on the fence...hoping to have my crystal ball working by April 24.....

[Randall Dowling]

Just now, Mmehdy said:

I get it...still what ROBO's point is ...at some point you just do not get turned on as much...not for me but I understand his point if you have a estimated life span or say 20 years as opposed to 30-40..you factor in the amount of time you can enjoy ownership. I think as you get older and deal with you mortality as it gets closer you begin to look at  the end game..does in my family..care or will it get dumped to Ha.com just like will be in the ground. Tough decision. To me the deciding factor is you only live once...and owning a piece of history...created at time without a thought of value for the future...kind of transports you back. I remember holding my first copy of Action #1...never before had I ever felt...transported back in time...amazing feeling..who bought this? what was it like going to newstand and seeing this...I have always tried to reclaim that feeling, it did not repapppear when I was holding the SF copy of Det 27 or the Bigman copy of Whiz 2., But Cap 1 for some reason was close Acton 1 in terms of awe.

 I just hate what is going on out there...I would pay a higher price ,then have society fall apart as it is. Still, I am on the fence...hoping to have my crystal ball working by April 24.....

I get it.  Thought you might laugh about it.  Seems like just yesterday when you joined the boards!  

[pemart1966]

5 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

I get it...still what ROBO's point is ...at some point you just do not get turned on as much...not for me but I understand his point if you have a estimated life span or say 20 years as opposed to 30-40..you factor in the amount of time you can enjoy ownership. I think as you get older and deal with you mortality as it gets closer you begin to look at  the end game..does in my family..care or will it get dumped to Ha.com just like will be in the ground. Tough decision. To me the deciding factor is you only live once...and owning a piece of history...created at time without a thought of value for the future...kind of transports you back. I remember holding my first copy of Action #1...never before had I ever felt...transported back in time...amazing feeling..who bought this? what was it like going to newstand and seeing this...I have always tried to reclaim that feeling, it did not repapppear when I was holding the SF copy of Det 27 or the Bigman copy of Whiz 2., But Cap 1 for some reason was close Acton 1 in terms of awe.

 I just hate what is going on out there...I would pay a higher price ,then have society fall apart as it is. Still, I am on the fence...hoping to have my crystal ball working by April 24.....

I get your feelings holding up that Action #1 for the first time.  I've never had the privilege but I ask the same questions about every collectible I hold.  Who bought this originally?  Where did you buy it?  What made you buy it?  What was the weather like on the day you bought it?  Was it a gift?  Who gave it to you?  What was the occasion?  I see your name and address written on the cover.  I'd LOVE to know your entire life story.  I google your name to see if there's anything that tells me whether you're still alive or whether you've passed.  I google your address to see whether your childhood house is still there - the one that you were living in when you bought that book back in 1942.  Sometimes it isn't - it's been replaced with "progress".  Sometimes It's still standing and it looks pretty much as it did back then.  I can see you running home with it or riding home with it on your bike.  You drop your bike on your lawn and you run upstairs, flop on your bed and you start reading it never dreaming that it would still be in existence 80 or so years later and highly valued - by adults.

I don't know whether it was your first Action #1 or not Mitch but I remember, at the time, opening the daily newspaper here in Canada and seeing a photo of you holding up a copy that you had purchased for approx $1800 and some odd cents - it wasn't a round number.  I thought to myself WOW.  How did this guy EVER manage to save up that kind of dough to buy Action #1?  I cut out that picture and the blurb that was printed below it and I still have it to this day.  Are the whereabouts of that particular copy known today?

When I showed it to my father, he read the blurb and looked at the photo and said something like "hmm".  I think that it was at that point that he finally realized that there may be something to this comics collecting stuff beyond me being an oddball.  There were other collectors before you but your photo in newspapers all over the continent gave comic collecting real legitimacy - thanks!

I wouldn't say that society is falling apart.  The life of everyone on the planet is disrupted and there's been unprecedented upheaval.  But there are protocols and plans in place that will hopefully mitigate the spread of this virus sooner rather than later.  These protocols and plans are not perfect but society would really be falling apart without them.

We've seen record drops in the stock market over the last week or so and we may yet see more record drops before it all slows down and finally stops - and it will stop.  I predict then that we'll see record up swings once people realize that things are getting back to the new normal. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by pemart1966

[GermanFan]

I believe rather than Captain Trips or a new plague we see the first world wide internet driven mass hysteria. The economic outcome is much more serious than the health issues (wich are real but nothing compared to 1918, and remember the spanish flu didnt stop the war efforts, they just kept on fighting regardless).

So the economy worldwide will falter. The governments will say its because of the virus (but the virus is only the trigger). Massive economic and societal upheaval (but no breakdown). BTW: Great opportunity to take away more of our rights like 9/11 was. Then massive deglobalisation (how can it be that nearly all pharmaceuticals are produced in China? Thats madness).

In this time frame (a couple of years, 2-3yrs) prices on all assets will go down and great deals will be had for people with cash. Then the new adjusted economy will start to kick in and things will normalize, maybe in about 3 years from now.

Conclusio: I believe massive great deals are coming in the next 2 years for those who have money. And yes, its time to mannup!

Edited March 18, 2020 by GermanFan

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, GermanFan said:

I believe rather than Captain Trips or a new plague we see the first world wide internet driven mass hysteria. The economic outcome is much more serious than the health issues (wich are real but nothing compared to 1918, and remember the spanish flu didnt stop the war efforts, they just kept on fighting regardless).

So the economy worldwide will falter. The governments will say its because of the virus (but the virus is only the trigger). Massive economic and societal upheaval (but no breakdown). BTW: Great opportunity to take away more of our rights like 9/11 was. Then massive deglobalisation (how can it be that nearly all pharmaceuticals are produced in China? Thats madness).

In this time frame (a couple of years, 2-3yrs) prices on all assets will go down and great deals will be had for people with cash. Then the new adjusted economy will start to kick in and things will normalize, maybe in about 3 years from now.

Conclusio: I believe massive great deals are coming in the next 2 years for those who have money. And yes, its time to mannup!

Thank you German Fan for you opinion...one question to you. Can you estimate to what to degree you feel the GA/SA market will go down?  What qualifies in your opinion as a "good deal" and finally do feel that GA/SA will be a slow downward path over the next two to three years? Finally at what point down the road will we fully recover GA/SA prices if ever?

[GermanFan]

I am not in the high end market. Most I spent on a comic was $ 1000. I am in the couple of hundreds per book in average. Overall I believe it will go down to at least to 2007 levels or 2000s. Keep in mind the outcome of this crisis cannot be predicted for sure but the demographics can. And that demographic trend speaks rather for lower prices than higher in the future. The surge since 2009 was imo because the collectors market is just a part of the "bubble of everything" caused by lowering interest rates and printing money. The party has to end and I believe this is the end of the party.  

[Mmehdy]

11 hours ago, pemart1966 said:

I get your feelings holding up that Action #1 for the first time.  I've never had the privilege but I ask the same questions about every collectible I hold.  Who bought this originally?  Where did you buy it?  What made you buy it?  What was the weather like on the day you bought it?  Was it a gift?  Who gave it to you?  What was the occasion?  I see your name and address written on the cover.  I'd LOVE to know your entire life story.  I google your name to see if there's anything that tells me whether you're still alive or whether you've passed.  I google your address to see whether your childhood house is still there - the one that you were living in when you bought that book back in 1942.  Sometimes it isn't - it's been replaced with "progress".  Sometimes It's still standing and it looks pretty much as it did back then.  I can see you running home with it or riding home with it on your bike.  You drop your bike on your lawn and you run upstairs, flop on your bed and you start reading it never dreaming that it would still be in existence 80 or so years later and highly valued - by adults.

I don't know whether it was your first Action #1 or not Mitch but I remember, at the time, opening the daily newspaper here in Canada and seeing a photo of you holding up a copy that you had purchased for approx $1800 and some odd cents - it wasn't a round number.  I thought to myself WOW.  How did this guy EVER manage to save up that kind of dough to buy Action #1?  I cut out that picture and the blurb that was printed below it and I still have it to this day.  Are the whereabouts of that particular copy known today?

When I showed it to my father, he read the blurb and looked at the photo and said something like "hmm".  I think that it was at that point that he finally realized that there may be something to this comics collecting stuff beyond me being an oddball.  There were other collectors before you but your photo in newspapers all over the continent gave comic collecting real legitimacy - thanks!

I wouldn't say that society is falling apart.  The life of everyone on the planet is disrupted and there's been unprecedented upheaval.  But there are protocols and plans in place that will hopefully mitigate the spread of this virus sooner rather than later.  These protocols and plans are not perfect but society would really be falling apart without them.

We've seen record drops in the stock market over the last week or so and we may yet see more record drops before it all slows down and finally stops - and it will stop.  I predict then that we'll see record up swings once people realize that things are getting back to the new normal. 

I hope you are 100% right about everything. The yo-yo market is down today again, Thank you for your great comments on the purchase of Action 1. I think everyone of us should have, what I had as a young man. The crash the brick wall mentality. I did not care at the time of purchase whether Action 1 went down to a penny. Our world has never be so interconnected as it is today. My greatest fear is that the weak counties collapse and bring us all down with them. That is a real possibility. Could Action #1 go down to $1800 again?. Probably not...but can easily see a 50% price drop in heartbeat. The weakest part of of GA comics will the biggest hit, not necessarily the most expense books. A decline is certain to occur, the real issue is how much and for how long. For those of you who have chosen CGC to grade you books you will be very glad in this picky market. Certain CGC books will retain. more of their value.

 At this point I would advise board members to stay away from the following should a drastic plunge occur during this crisis.

1-ungraded confimred restored GA- this will take the biggest hit

.2- Restored GA-CGC very low graded or restoredCGC- GA which has been going for multiple guide prices or CGC restored books with poor page quality, pieces added,  rusty staples, and tape.

 3-CGC Qualfied or unrestored very low grade, poor page quality, pieces added, and books with tape on them as well as rusty staples.

Everything else is fair game at the right price. If you own any of these you might want to consider the 1-selling them and trading UP by buying better quality material now..less quantity for more quality. 2-trading with fellow collectors for better material. If you can sell this material with a relative little loss then I would do so. Just my opinion...based upon 60 years of seeing ups, downs, and sideways.

 We will survive and we will continue to love GA.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Mmehdy]

4 minutes ago, GermanFan said:

I am not in the high end market. Most I spent on a comic was $ 1000. I am in the couple of hundreds per book in average. Overall I believe it will go down to at least to 2007 levels or 2000s. Keep in mind the outcome of this crisis cannot be predicted for sure but the demographics can. And that demographic trend speaks rather for lower prices than higher in the future. The surge since 2009 was imo because the collectors market is just a part of the "bubble of everything" caused by lowering interest rates and printing money. The party has to end and I believe this is the end of the party.  

WOW-"the end of the party"...so what you are saying is we might never get back to the pre-virus n GA/SA prices of 2020...right?

Edited March 18, 2020 by Mmehdy

[jimbo_7071]

1 hour ago, GermanFan said:

I am not in the high end market. Most I spent on a comic was $ 1000. I am in the couple of hundreds per book in average. Overall I believe it will go down to at least to 2007 levels or 2000s. Keep in mind the outcome of this crisis cannot be predicted for sure but the demographics can. And that demographic trend speaks rather for lower prices than higher in the future. The surge since 2009 was imo because the collectors market is just a part of the "bubble of everything" caused by lowering interest rates and printing money. The party has to end and I believe this is the end of the party.  

I've been collecting since the 80s, so I've seen the GA market go up and down several times. I agree with you that the bubble is bursting, but I don't think prices will go down to early 2000s levels. I do think we'll see prices go down to about 2011/2012 levels. (I think the economy will have recovered from the coronavirus by this time next year; I'm thinking in terms of the correction that was due regardless.) I agree with you about demographics if you're talking really long term, say 30 years out; the GA collector base is ageing. However, I think we'll see a very slow stagnation of the peaks between now and then. I think we'll still have ups and downs, but I think the midline of the curve will become horizontal eventually. If we bottom out around 2022, I think we'll see prices that match 2018/2019 levels before the end of the decade.

[Knightsofold]

I didn’t see any bargains in the latest heritage auction especially if you consider many paid up to 10% additional from sales tax.   IMO it did look like the start of a flipper purge due to multiple copies of lesser key silver and bronze “spec books”.

For me I’ve slowed down in buying and completely stopped trading and upgrading ever since I had to pay the extra 10% sales tax.

some heritage sales:

 

 

 

[batman_fan]

29 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

I didn’t see any bargains in the latest heritage auction especially if you consider many paid up to 10% additional from sales tax.   IMO it did look like the start of a flipper purge due to multiple copies of lesser key silver and bronze “spec books”.

For me I’ve slowed down in buying and completely stopped trading and upgrading ever since I had to pay the extra 10% sales tax.

some heritage sales:

 

 

 

Those prices seem pretty strong to me.

[Mmehdy]

3 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Those prices seem pretty strong to me.

For now, they certainly do, I am more concerned about 2/3 weeks from now when we are on shutdown. We should all watch those auctions, there might be some good buys..but again take a chance. If you felt you were priced out of a book...you might want to reconsider that attitude and go for the book of your dreams. one way if they have the book you make a offer on say Ha,CL or CC. Low ball say 10 at a time, if one bites on the offer..go for it.  The other way to contact super dealers who post on the board like Bedrock and Gator...let them you if they come across someone who "has too" sell what you would be willing to pay. You can make up your own want list probably send it to the top 5 dealers and auction houses. No loss in trying. Say you want Cap 1 and the condition you want it in current market is 80K....well contact them and let know 40K cash if one comes up or they know somebody who has one...cash is and will always be king.

 Unusual times  calls for nontraditional buying methods....again no hurt in trying and I doubt this will pandemic will occur again in such an intrusive way on our lifestyles , the German chancellor Angela Merkel said today " The coronavirus pandemic is the greatest threat to Germany since WW II "..and she is no nonsense and tough Lady. Remember back to May 1945...after the USSR/USA/Brits destroyed the county. You need to adapt a buying strategy and stick to it.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Mmehdy