GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[atomised]

I actually wish the big three of HA, clink and cc would slightly slow down the auction cadence this year.  There's just too much inventory offered at auction at this time.

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Looking at prices on the current Clink auction, prices don't appear to be tanking.

Although it looks like most of these books would be from the SA and BA, here's a post from a Comics General thread which kept track of about 80 books so far:

On 3/24/2020 at 7:24 PM, DavidTheDavid said:

Curious? Here's a look at select auction results. Knowing me, I won't keep this up, but hey, not like I have much else to do right now. Except work. And parent.

I no longer use GPA, so my comparison for FMV is from GoCollect. Generally, I selected books that were likely to land over $1,000, were exceptional copies, or which trade frequently. If someone wants to add GPA data, DM me. I'd be curious to see that column added. For the Gold lots in ComicLink, GoCo won't have much information, but I may record the hammers anyhow.

Anyhow: the data.

From the linked data spreadsheet, it would appear that there is a definite downward drift in prices based upon what I am looking at.  

Doesn't appear to be any compariosns in there for GA books as far as I can tell.  

Edited March 26, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, atomised said:

I actually wish the big three of HA, clink and cc would slightly slow down the auction cadence this year.  There's just too much inventory offered at auction at this time.

Looks like your wish came true as CC is not having their usual March Event Auction this year.  

Nothing to do with Covid-19 though, as it was much more due to the big screwed up job done on the revamping of their website.  

[Axmen]

29 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Looks like your wish came true as CC is not having their usual March Event Auction this year.  

Nothing to do with Covid-19 though, as it was much more due to the big screwed up job done on the revamping of their website.  

I was wondering what the hell is going on with their

site - doesnt even look like they have auctions anymore. super goofy

[Joshua33]

On 3/15/2020 at 9:48 AM, Mmehdy said:

I just have to disagree with your premise that in 2 months the virus will be in the rear view mirror. The summer should slow it down...but if it is like any other virus it is going to come roaring back in the winter. Until there is a vaccine there is no end in sight. A interesting news story appeared today in which a gentlemen who got the virus and beat it with tow test confirmations  and was declared virus free...got it again...very troubling unless its a freak case. There might be no reason to panic but in reality no one can predict where we are headed this time.

 It is not the virus itself that we should really fear, its the collateral damage it inflicts which makes vulnerable countries subject to depression, for example chinas 10 year government jacked up real estate market which the government has supported. If that was to collapse then it like dominos for everybody else. My hedge fund friend is killing it in the market...remember they hedge. His estimation is 14,000-145000 as bottom which make it similar to 2009's 56% drop. That would be very bad for everybody and GA comic book values will not be immune.

Even if we have a vaccine...good luck distributing and making it for billions of people in two months....I am hoping this mess ends and a recovery happens within 12 months.

GA comic book values will decline sharply if you have to sell while we are in the middle of this crisis. GPA data means nothing because of the unique nature of this virus and crisis How does diamond deliver new material to comic book stores which cannot open as well as comic book conventions and attendance at auctions for anytime of collectable not just GA/SA. I do agree however, that after we get used to a change of lifestyle that panic should be reduced.I guess we are gonna have to get used to the fact they we are all gonna get it and life goes on.

On your comment regarding people saying what is gonna happen and advising them to do different things...I think you have to separate facts from opinion. The hard part is agreeing on the facts...LOL We are in a panic with no end in sight, if we get a vaccine then we will have an end in sight..but then a time issue  arises of making and distributing it to the entire world. Plain and simple it is just gonna take time and  my  estimate of 12 months of restoration of value to worldwide stock market price is based upon prior models and is quite conservative. 

 My point of this thread was to provide some guidance as to how to navigate you GA/SA comic book collection whether you are buying, selling, or consigning during this crisis. I hope, based upon your comments, mixed messages. So as to clarify as to what I feel would be the best way to survive and continue to be a true comic book collector lets not forget the past.

1-GA/SA collecto/investor who is in for the long run-the only thing that counts is the day you bought it and the day you sell it. Long run I feel good about top quality GA/SA and if you can afford to hold it that might be the best way to go here..any opinions?

2-GA/SA collector who needs to sell part of his collection to pay bills or support family. Comic conventions are out, same with comic book stores, I would probably go thru an auction house who has a international presence such as to get the most people aware of the book.Otherwise you might be able to secure a loan from a comic book dealer if some enterprising dealer might think of a new way to help collectors etc..What do you think...any ideas?

3-GA/SA needs to sell entire collection.....any ideas?

 I remind you that Japan in early August of 1945  they had two A bombs dropped, Fire bombing from B-52's and the Russians  declared war and finally attacked the Japanse all in the same month. Look at the recoverey....look at what there people had to overcome...pretty amazing . We will win...in the long run... we are not gonna lose 75 MILLION people to genocide, disease, starvation, and mass bombings like WW2. We will beat this thing and comeback even stronger.

 

Your hedge buddy still on that 14k market kick?

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

Your hedge buddy still on that 14k market kick?

I called him for you.

Yes. my hedge guy says the current market is a "false bottom"...whatever that means...He is sticking to his 14,500 and he adds if the market goes below 12,800 which would be below the 2008 decline that we will officially be in long term depression.He also indicated that this market sell-off  was the fastest in history, exceeding even the great depression. It could happen again, even faster the next time.

 

A long term depression would have serious GA market repercussions . Again it would be in my opinion a slower rate of decline that the stock market but we would get there, the decline would exceed 50% of prior virus value before the recovery would be on the upswing again.. In that case the weaker books would become the hardest hit., 

1-ungraded restored GA will get hit the hardest

2 unrestored Low ungraded GA, especially with tape, rusty staples,and poor page quality is next.

3-Ungraded GA and CGC graded restored.

4-CGC low graded unrestored with pieces out,tape, bad staples , pages or cover not attached , and low paper quality.

5- CGC Mid grade unrestored

6 CGC high grade unrestored, Grail books, and very rare GA.

If buying to make your collection better I would reverse the above and buy all you can at the bottom of this crisis. That would be the most effective way in which you could better your GA collection, there will be better deals at the top the list for collector buying with an eye getting trading material for future deals. I would have a different buying approach if I were a collector/dealer or just a comic book dealer.

We are in uncharted waters in the middle of a fog....all we need is a little bit of light...and we will find the direction to get out...it is gonna happen and when we do look out.....

Edited March 26, 2020 by Mmehdy

[manofsteel]

13 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Looks like your wish came true as CC is not having their usual March Event Auction this year.  

Nothing to do with Covid-19 though, as it was much more due to the big screwed up job done on the revamping of their website.  

Right. They said their auction will go from the end of April till mid May. 

If anyone has any GA Superman books for sale, and they want to sell before the sky falls, please PM me. I'll give 60% of the value. 

Edited March 26, 2020 by manofsteel

[Cat-Man_America]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

I called him for you.

Yes. my hedge guy says the current market is a "false bottom"...whatever that means...He is sticking to his 14,500 and he adds if the market goes below 12,800 which would be below the 2008 decline that we will officially be in long term depression.He also indicated that this market sell-off  was the fastest in history, exceeding even the great depression. It could happen again, even faster the next time.

 

A long term depression would have serious GA market repercussions . Again it would be in my opinion a slower rate of decline that the stock market but we would get there, the decline would exceed 50% of prior virus value before the recovery would be on the upswing again.. In that case the weaker books would become the hardest hit., 

1-ungraded restored GA will get hit the hardest

2 unrestored Low ungraded GA, especially with tape, rusty staples,and poor page quality is next.

3-Ungraded GA and CGC graded restored.

4-CGC low graded unrestored with pieces out,tape, bad staples , pages or cover not attached , and low paper quality.

5- CGC Mid grade unrestored

6 CGC high grade unrestored, Grail books, and very rare GA.

If buying to make your collection better I would reverse the above and buy all you can at the bottom of this crisis. That would be the most effective way in which you could better your GA collection, there will be better deals at the top the list for collector buying with an eye getting trading material for future deals. I would have a different buying approach if I were a collector/dealer or just a comic book dealer.

We are in uncharted waters in the middle of a fog....all we need is a little bit of light...and we will find the direction to get out...it is gonna happen and when we do look out.....

I’m neither Pollyanna-ish nor Chicken Little-ish about the economic tightrope everyone is walking.  The stimulus package is a sugar high for the market, the DOW reality is likely more butt-hurt and a leveling off somewhere between 18K and 20K with slow growth and lots of spin from faux economic gurus making rosier than believable predictions.  Money to shore up the economy is basically the little Dutch boy plugging holes in the dike to slow a flood while villagers move their investments to higher ground.  Regular wage earners are going to take a hit this year as will business (likely for two quarters, possibly three).  Once stabilized, that’s when the real finger pointing and second guessing will occur.

As for the comic markets, this will be a time for readjustment.  Some values will fall, others will rise.  In GA, I expect high grade books of scarcity to either rise precipitously or remain stable.  Some will probably change hands outside of the auction markets.  Mid-grades and more common books are a bit iffier.  The popular titles will probably remain in greatest demand, but expect fluctuation.  Some collectors will view this as a time for reappraising their involvement in the hobby, ...let’s call it an austerity movement... based on family considerations, protecting personal resources, etc.  

Other collectors, including investment “flippers” and longer term speculators, will view this as an opportunity to buy books that are discounted or dumped by skittish collectors fearful of a bigger downturn.  Those skittish folks in the latter category I’ll refer to as “musical chair” collectors who are concerned that they’ll be left holding lower valued books when the music stops ...or rather, recessionary dust settles.  These are the times that try GPA’s soul and have folks looking to Lord Overstreet for guidance.

Mitch, the one thing I’d adjust in your list of speculations is reference to CGC encapsulation.  While we aren’t supposed to endorse or promote the competitor’s business here ...and something I am NOT doing here... we shouldn’t completely ignore the reality of CBCS existence and acknowledge collector patronage of their service in the overall economic scope of things.  Personally, I think books graded by both major third party grading services will have stronger perceived value during and after the crisis.  

Otherwise, I think your observations are fairly astute even if leaning towards a worse case scenario.   

Caveat: These are just my personal opinions informed by observations of current collector attitudes.  Everyone’s mileage will vary and if your outlook happens to be rosier than mine, I’m pulling for your POV all the way.

   

[batman_fan]

I am only tracking 3 GA Batman books for the current CLINK auction.  All 3 are below where I would expect the final hammer to land but they are getting close to where I would expect them to land.  If any are bargains, they will be at my home.

[tpetty]

I am not a "high roller" when it comes to comics.  Don't think I've ever spent over $1500 or so on a single issue - so my experience likely doesn't hold true for those that are spending 5-6 figures on a book.

I'm a surgeon - and all elective surgery is effectively banned.  I won't earn a paycheck until I can operate again (although I still have overhead costs, nurse, etc to pay), and that is going to be AT LEAST a month without income, and probably more.  I run my own 401k/savings (I know - physicians are notoriously poor at finance) and when my cumulative stock accounts declined by a million dollars a couple weeks ago, coupled with no money coming in, my comic purchases will be basically nothing for now.

[Paul © ® ⚽️💙™]

9 minutes ago, tpetty said:

I am not a "high roller" when it comes to comics.  Don't think I've ever spent over $1500 or so on a single issue - so my experience likely doesn't hold true for those that are spending 5-6 figures on a book.

I'm a surgeon - and all elective surgery is effectively banned.  I won't earn a paycheck until I can operate again (although I still have overhead costs, nurse, etc to pay), and that is going to be AT LEAST a month without income, and probably more.  I run my own 401k/savings (I know - physicians are notoriously poor at finance) and when my cumulative stock accounts declined by a million dollars a couple weeks ago, coupled with no money coming in, my comic purchases will be basically nothing for now.

I am a high roller. I have been known to spend as much as $25 on a single book. However in the current crisis I have decided to diversify into buying toilet roll and other decadent luxuries like bread and milk. I'm struggling to acquire the bread and milk however I can always recycle the comics I own into much needed bathroom products.  

[Mmehdy]

19 minutes ago, tpetty said:

I am not a "high roller" when it comes to comics.  Don't think I've ever spent over $1500 or so on a single issue - so my experience likely doesn't hold true for those that are spending 5-6 figures on a book.

I'm a surgeon - and all elective surgery is effectively banned.  I won't earn a paycheck until I can operate again (although I still have overhead costs, nurse, etc to pay), and that is going to be AT LEAST a month without income, and probably more.  I run my own 401k/savings (I know - physicians are notoriously poor at finance) and when my cumulative stock accounts declined by a million dollars a couple weeks ago, coupled with no money coming in, my comic purchases will be basically nothing for now.

Here is a true GA comic book collector...and this is gonna be true for everybody at some point unless the price is a bargain.. A number of GA Collectors will just stop dead in  the GA comic collector's tracks. That is why if you have material which you can afford to hold a minimum of 12 months, you might want to reconsider selling that material during this crisis. The law of supply and demand must be in balance in order to have a healthy GA comic book market. I see demand slowing for both GA/SA.

 Tpetty good luck, stay healthy and please come back to the GA market when it is safe and sound for you family.

[Mmehdy]

58 minutes ago, G G ® said:

I am a high roller. I have been known to spend as much as $25 on a single book. However in the current crisis I have decided to diversify into buying toilet roll and other decadent luxuries like bread and milk. I'm struggling to acquire the bread and milk however I can always recycle the comics I own into much needed bathroom products.  

This crisis causes fear and frustration, regardless if you lose 250 dollars and your minimum wage job, or 1 million and you cannot perform surgery...and whose is to say what is "elective ". I might be emotionally reacting to your supposed funny post...but we have a  friend  from Italy that found a lump in her breast and she has been told  that her surgery is "elective" at this time.. I do not find bathroom humor funny at this time. We have the right as GA collectors to sympathize no matter what income,nationality and political views are expressed here.

 I wish to remind you that this virus kills and creates economic ruin no matter what neighborhood you live in or how much money you have in the bank and if you are a high school dropout or a medical doctor.

If you get a chance, and the video clip was posted I think in comics general, of the movie Margin Call....I highly recommend all board members watch this.....when the chairman the company   John Tuld  (Jeremy Irons) is talking to Sam Rodgers  (Kevin Spacey) about his company coming going down...check it out on you Tube "Margin Call" 2011 Senior Partners emergency meeting

to paraphrase :  Sam:"you know what we are selling is worthless

                           John: We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price

                              and This is it..THIS IS IT

 Folks be careful  how  you navigate your GA/SA comic book both buying and selling because it is a "This is It" moment in our GA collecting history.

                            

Edited March 27, 2020 by Mmehdy

[batman_fan]

1 hour ago, tpetty said:

I am not a "high roller" when it comes to comics.  Don't think I've ever spent over $1500 or so on a single issue - so my experience likely doesn't hold true for those that are spending 5-6 figures on a book.

I'm a surgeon - and all elective surgery is effectively banned.  I won't earn a paycheck until I can operate again (although I still have overhead costs, nurse, etc to pay), and that is going to be AT LEAST a month without income, and probably more.  I run my own 401k/savings (I know - physicians are notoriously poor at finance) and when my cumulative stock accounts declined by a million dollars a couple weeks ago, coupled with no money coming in, my comic purchases will be basically nothing for now.

I hope things get back to "normal" for you quick.  This definitely hurts folks in lots of ways.

[Paul © ® ⚽️💙™]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

This crisis causes fear and frustration, regardless if you lose 250 dollars and your minimum wage job, or 1 million and you cannot perform surgery...and whose is to say what is "elective ". I might be emotionally reacting to your supposed funny post...but we have a  friend  from Italy that found a lump in her breast and she has been told  that her surgery is "elective" at this time.. I do not find bathroom humor funny at this time. We have the right as GA collectors to sympathize no matter what income,nationality and political views are expressed here.

 I wish to remind you that this virus kills and creates economic ruin no matter what neighborhood you live in or how much money you have in the bank and if you are a high school dropout or a medical doctor.

If you get a chance, and the video clip was posted I think in comics general, of the movie Margin Call....I highly recommend all board members watch this.....when the chairman the company   John Tuld  (Jeremy Irons) is talking to Sam Rodgers  (Kevin Spacey) about his company coming going down...check it out on you Tube "Margin Call" 2011 Senior Partners emergency meeting

to paraphrase :  Sam:"you know what we are selling is worthless

                           John: We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price

                              and This is it..THIS IS IT

 Folks be careful  how  you navigate your GA/SA comic book both buying and selling because it is a "This is It" moment in our GA collecting history.

                            

I certainly was not trying to make light of the situation, and my post was not meant to be funny. It was a statement on my current situation. I find musings on how much people spend on comic books at this time to be irrelevant and totally inconsequential.

We all have problems to deal with on top of the current situation. We all have to deal with whatever is thrown at us in our own way.

I wish everyone here safe passage thru' this,you can be assured of that.

[bluechip]

3 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

This crisis causes fear and frustration, regardless if you lose 250 dollars and your minimum wage job, or 1 million and you cannot perform surgery...and whose is to say what is "elective ". I might be emotionally reacting to your supposed funny post...but we have a  friend  from Italy that found a lump in her breast and she has been told  that her surgery is "elective" at this time.. I do not find bathroom humor funny at this time. We have the right as GA collectors to sympathize no matter what income,nationality and political views are expressed here.

 I wish to remind you that this virus kills and creates economic ruin no matter what neighborhood you live in or how much money you have in the bank and if you are a high school dropout or a medical doctor.

If you get a chance, and the video clip was posted I think in comics general, of the movie Margin Call....I highly recommend all board members watch this.....when the chairman the company   John Tuld  (Jeremy Irons) is talking to Sam Rodgers  (Kevin Spacey) about his company coming going down...check it out on you Tube "Margin Call" 2011 Senior Partners emergency meeting

to paraphrase :  Sam:"you know what we are selling is worthless

                           John: We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price

                              and This is it..THIS IS IT

 Folks be careful  how  you navigate your GA/SA comic book both buying and selling because it is a "This is It" moment in our GA collecting history.

                            

I remember that film well but in that scene they are talking about financial instruments, loans for homes that were already "underwater" and worth less than the loans.   

Now you could say that all collectibles have no intrinsic value, in that you cannot live in them or drive them or eat them (well, you could but they wouldn't sustain you).   What the best of them do have, however, is emotional value and genuine scarcity.  You can't manufacture them the way you can homes in overvalued locations, for example.  

The order of things on your list of what will maintain value is no different from the list you've always put forth, at any and every turn (or imagined turn) in the market, and it now, as always, mirrors your personal preferences in collecting.   Virtually everybody does that, of course, but, just think it's worth saying this was not carefully and uniquely constructed with respect to the current unique market conditions.  

But like you I have faith in the "best" and rarest, even if we don't always define it exactly the same way.   And like you I feel that some perspective is order.   This is not a world war.  The people who imply that we must let people die so the economy doesn't "die" are either unthinking, or dishonest, caring only about their financial positions and equating a temporary downturn with "death".   

Rare "GA" will retain value over time and likely increase in numerical value (if not comparative value) due to inflationary effects of the stimulus and resultant deficits, etc. 

If it doesn't and the floor drops to where they are virtually worthless, that will mean much bigger things are going on with the economy, and the value of your comics will be far from the thing that concerns you most because you'll be living in a whole different world.  One where the money you made or didn't make cashing in your comics, or your stocks, or your real estate, may also be meaningless.   It always amuses me in apocalyptic movies when they depict humanity collapsing to the point where clearly only a small percentage of people are going to survive, and you see some billionaire buying a seat on an escape vehicle with money -- not even a stockpile of useful goods he'd previously bought with cash but simply bags of actual cash -- as if money mean anything at all at that point.  I would find it more believable to see him buy a seat with a bag of GA books.   A key comic might be appreciated by somebody as a relic of civilization vanishing before their eyes.  At least, more so than a duffle bag full of Benjamins.    

 

[bluechip]

One more thing...

We're seeing lots of cities on minimal activity, but that in itself is not apocalyptic. 

Many businesses and industries shut down for several weeks over the Christmas-New Years holidays.   Some virtually shut down between Thanksgiving and mid-January.  

Used to be, if you traveled in Europe during August, you could have all of Paris or Rome to yourself, because nobody was there.   And the people who were there weren't doing much,

In Russia, try getting business done between mid-December, when the "New Year" holiday starts, and the beginning of February, when it finally starts to wind down. 

Much of the time China was on lockdown was already a virtual dead zone for any business not directly connected to their New Year celebration, which, like the Russians', goes on for about a month.

Not so long ago, New York was like that (check out the "Seven Year Itch" or "Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" and you'll see how people would just shut the doors for several weeks or even several months because, well, it was "hot" and AC was a rarity.

 

 

[Cat-Man_America]

7 hours ago, G G ® said:

I am a high roller. I have been known to spend as much as $25 on a single book. However in the current crisis I have decided to diversify into buying toilet roll and other decadent luxuries like bread and milk. I'm struggling to acquire the bread and milk however I can always recycle the comics I own into much needed bathroom products.  

I think I've figured out your problem, ...you need to lower the roll to within reach when you're sitting on the throne.

[Dark Knight]

20 hours ago, manofsteel said:

Right. They said their auction will go from the end of April till mid May. 

If anyone has any GA Superman books for sale, and they want to sell before the sky falls, please PM me. I'll give 60% of the value. 

Superman books should always go up up and away 

[Changer]

From my business studies and experience, the main stay theory of fundamental analysis is that; stocks are a portion of a company, its value is tied to future cash flow and its assets, as its future revenues are threatened from competitors or macro events, its values drop. So wealth is created when there is more economic activity and productivity, destroyed when consumers and business have no confidence and holding back. If the shock is too high companies can fold or be crippled permanently.

The stock market IMO had a very optimistic view of growth partly by shaped its own growth (speculation),  low interest rates and corporate tax cuts which added an artificial sugar high to them. Market which most likely would have been reset normally (correct) now with the enormity of  job losses, wealth drop and future uncertainty have shattered all growth models and increased investment risk. I imagine the market is reset for a long time as well as the general appetite for consumption of all assets, as cash will be tight.

To what scale and timing of the recover of Macro/world economics, will depend on the many variables of how the transition of this virus crisis to future commerce shapes out (infected rates, speed of vaccine, access to testing, effectiveness of govt programs, the virus curve, resumption of supply chains and trade, recurrence of covid-19).

In this environment of uncertainty cash is king. While collectibles are not tied to future earnings, they are affected by perception and consumer wealth, if one sees a specific collectable as safe and liquid storage of wealth that will increase its demand, if one perceives them as inflated or not liquid then that will accelerate its drop. As far as market choose carefully if buying individual stocks as future behavior of consumers will be altered and affect companies quite differently.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Changer